Predicting quantiles of water quality from catchment characteristics     

Danlu Guo  Shuci Liu  Dhananjay Singh  Andrew W. Western 《水文研究》2021,35(1):e13996

Water quality is often highly variable both in space and time, which poses challenges for modelling the more extreme concentrations. This study developed an alternative approach to predicting water quality quantiles at individual locations. We focused on river water quality data that were collected over 25 years, at 102 catchments across the State of Victoria, Australia. We analysed and modelled spatial patterns of the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 90th percentiles of the concentrations of sediments, nutrients and salt, with six common constituents: total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorus (TP), filterable reactive phosphorus (FRP), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), nitrate-nitrite (NO_x), and electrical conductivity (EC). To predict the spatial variation of each quantile for each constituent, we developed statistical regression models and exhaustively searched through 50 catchment characteristics to identify the best set of predictors for that quantile. The models predict the spatial variation in individual quantiles of TSS, TKN and EC well (66%–96% spatial variation explained), while those for TP, FRP and NO_x have lower performance (37%–73% spatial variation explained). The most common factors that influence the spatial variations of the different constituents and quantiles are: annual temperature, percentage of cropping land area in catchment and channel slope. The statistical models developed can be used to predict how low- and high-concentration quantiles change with landscape characteristics, and thus provide a useful tool for catchment managers to inform planning and policy making with changing climate and land use conditions.  相似文献   

含有集约束向量极值问题的最优性条件     

吴泽忠 《成都信息工程学院学报》2004,19(2):258-262

在序线性拓扑空间里研究了含有集约束向量极值问题的最优性条件,并建立了充分性和必要性条件.  相似文献   

Drought and institutional adaptation in the Great Plains of Alberta and Saskatchewan, 1914–1939     

Gregory P. Marchildon  Suren Kulshreshtha  Elaine Wheaton  Dave Sauchyn 《Natural Hazards》2008,45(3):391-411

Agriculture in the southern Great Plains of Canada has been particularly vulnerable to prolonged episodes of drought. Using climate data and a precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration index, the extent of the region’s exposure to drought is examined. Between 1914 and 1917, the Dry Belt was particularly vulnerable to drought, whereas after 1928, a much larger region known as the Palliser Triangle covering most of southern Alberta and Saskatchewan was much more exposed to drought. These droughts provoked major institutional adaptation, in particular the establishment of the Special Areas Board by the Government of Alberta, and the creation of the Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Administration by the Government of Canada. Both organizations have proved to be relatively permanent public adaptations to the natural hazard of drought in the region. Moreover, these earlier experiences with prolonged drought as well as institution-building may be of value in helping the residents of the Palliser Triangle adapt to predicted climate changes in the future as well as anticipate some of the barriers to effective institutional adaptation.  相似文献   

喜马拉雅山脉的地质地貌特征:来自SRTM数字高程模型和降水量数据的约束   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

王猛  刘焰  何延波  魏东 《地质科学》2008,43(3):603-622

利用GTOPO30和SRTM3数字高程(DEM)数据,提取了喜马拉雅山脉(造山带)的数字高程模型并对其进行了地质地貌的初步分析。从SRTM3数字高程数据提取出坡度数据,初步分析了喜马拉雅山脉坡度和高程的特征。数字高程和坡度图清楚地展现了喜马拉雅大型断裂带(构造边界)的空间分布特征。分析了中国气象局下属的西藏、青海、四川和云南4省区气象观测台站55年来的年平均降水量观测数据、喜马拉雅山脉南坡的年平均降水量数据、喜马拉雅DEM和裂变径迹数据,发现喜马拉雅山脉从东至西,年平均降水量逐渐减少,地形起伏逐渐变小,而高程渐次升高,与此同时剥蚀速率降低;从北至南,年平均降水量逐渐增加,地形起伏增大,高程快速降低,而剥蚀速率则急剧升高。这充分说明了喜马拉雅年平均降水量大的地区,地表剥蚀作用相对较强,年平均降水量小的地区,地表剥蚀作用则较弱,即:在喜马拉雅地区,长周期的地表剥蚀过程(可长达数个百万年时间尺度)和短周期(仅仅50年)的降水量观测是耦合的。  相似文献   

Poisson-Logistic二元复合极值模型在平台甲板标高设计中的应用     

刘德辅宋艳  李晓冬 《海洋工程》2003,21(4):35-40

考虑到平台所在海区台风出现的频次及其诱发之风、浪、潮、流极端海况联合出现的概率特性，本文推导出Poisson—Logistic二元复合极值模式，并以平台甲板标高进行实例计算。新模式增加了概率模型的物理内涵，解决了Logistic模型阈值选取的任意性。对海洋工程极端海况荷载组合预测具有广泛的应用前景。  相似文献   

Long-Period Distribution of Wave Heights and Its Application     

Weng Keqin Associate Professor  Hydraulic  Hydro-Power Engineering Dept.  Tsinghua University  Beijing 《中国海洋工程》1995,(2)

This paper reveals that the long-period statistic distribution of the characteristic heights of deep-water waves assumes the lognormal distribution. Thereafter, the largest wave-height which may occur in the service life of coastal structures is derived in this paper.  相似文献   

渤海南部海域年极值波浪和设计波浪的特征研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

滕学春  吴秀杰 《海洋科学进展》1994,(3)

本文用统计计算和后报方法，获得了本海域不同海区多年年极值波高（Ｈ１／１０）资料。用Ｐ－Ⅲ型和短期测波资料频率分析方法，估算了各海区的设计波高，并依据文献［３］计算出对应的平均周期。用Ｋｏｌｍｏｇｏｒｏｆｆ适合度方法检验所得的结果表明，依Ｐ－Ⅲ型方法拟配的理论频率曲线与经验点十分吻合，从而确定了本海域不同海区最佳的设计波浪。分析本海域年极值波浪的基本特征表明，本海域除了渤海湾北部海区以外，主浪向一般为ＮＮＥ向，渤海海峡区的年极值波高和设计波高均为最大，而向莱州湾及渤海湾沿岸海区逐渐减小；在沿岸海区，由龙口至黄河口一带的极值波高较大。  相似文献   

新世纪大洋钻探"三角鼎立"中的欧洲联合体     

刘玉柱  高月华 《海洋地质前沿》2002,18(5):19-20

欧洲为了与美国、日本在IODP中处于同等重要的地位，成立了由ODP成员参加的欧洲大洋钻探科学指导委员会（ESCOD）和JEODI组织，并开展了IODP之前的一系列准备活动。在其中的APLACON会议上，论证了IODP中第三类特定钻探平台的必要性，讨论了该类平台在某些研究范围内的重要作用，包括研究地球历史中的极端气候（北极海区）、重建白垩纪－第三纪的水文地理学、气候的快速变化、沉积盆地形成与过程以及固体地球过程等。  相似文献   

东海黑潮热输送及其与黄淮平原区汛期降水的关系   总被引：22，自引：0，他引：22  

翁学传  张启龙  杨玉玲  颜廷壮 《海洋与湖沼》1996,27(3):237-245

根据日本气象厅1956—1990年PN（G）断面观测资料分析东海黑潮热输送的变异特征，并探讨其冬季热输送与黄淮平原区汛期（6－8月）降水的关系。结果表明，黑潮通过PN（G）断面多年平均的热输送达15．74×1014W，其中冬季热输送的年际和长期变化特别明显；冬季热输送年际变化的周期主要为对．23.4a、3.5a、和2.6a，长期变化总趋势是70年代末以前各年热输送距平均为负值，对年代末接近多年平均值，进入80年代各年距平值不仅为正且逐年增大；东海黑潮冬季热输送与黄淮平原区汛期降水具有相近的长期变化趋势，两者间存在较好的负相关关系。  相似文献   

长江中下游6月份降水的一个预报指标     

赵永平  陈永利 《海洋科学》1995,19(1):39-42

根据１９６３－１９９２年嵊山海洋站２月海气感热输送和２２ａ太阳磁周期与降水的关系，提出了一个长江中下游６月降水的综合预报指标，用此指标，对１９９３年６月长江中下游降水进行回报，结果与实况一致。  相似文献