THE EFFECTS OF BOGUS TYPHOON AND OBSERVED OCEANIC DATA ON THE ABILITY OF T_(213)L_(31) TO PREDICT TC TRACK     

麻素红  王建捷  万丰 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2007,13(2):149-152

The abilities of typhoon (TC) track prediction by a medium-range forecast model T213L31 at National Meteorological Center are analyzed and its ability to improve its TC forecasts is discussed. The results show that about 57% of the TCs could be predicted by T213L31 but the initial position errors are large.The 43% area without the prediction of TC tracks is concentrated between 13°N and 20°N and east of 120°E and lack of conventional observation data is the main reason for the absence of TC prediction in this area.The adding of bogus TC could improve the ability of TC track prediction when there is no TC vortex in the analysis field, but could only have positive effects on the short-range TC track prediction when there is TC vortex in the T213L31 analysis field.  相似文献   

北太平洋风暴轴异常变化特征及其与纬向风场的关系研究   总被引：7，自引：2，他引：7       下载免费PDF全文

韩博  任雪娟  杨修群 《气象科学》2007,27(3):237-245

摘要本文通过对300 hPa5、00 hPa和850 hPa的北太平洋风暴轴(PST)的异常研究,分别提取出两个主异常模态进行比较。分析表明在三层的第一主模态都主要对应有PST异常的准10 a的周期变化;而对300 hPa和500 hPa的第二主模态,以及850 hPa的第三模态,对应有更长时间的趋势变化。进一步通过相关的分析,说明PST的异常从低层到高层的变化存在一定的一致性。通过PST与纬向风场在300 hPa的相关分析发现,两个模态与纬向风场的异常在空间上都呈同位相的分布,说明高层纬向风场异常与PST发展可能存在一种互相反馈的作用。进一步通过斜压增长率和水平两维的E-P通量矢的合成分析发现,这种反馈作用,无论从纬向风场异常所产生的环境斜压增长条件的改变,还是从平均动能与扰动动能的转化关系,都是存在的。  相似文献   

"龙王"(LONGWANG)台风过程湿位涡的诊断分析   总被引：8，自引：2，他引：8       下载免费PDF全文

赖绍钧  何芬  赵汝汀  沈桐立  吴启树 《气象科学》2007,27(3):266-271

本文应用MM5V3中尺度数值模式对0519号台风“龙王”过程进行了数值模拟,利用模拟结果计算了台风过程湿位涡(Moist Potential Vorticity,MPV)的演变,从湿位涡的角度研究了台风过程大暴雨的产生机制。结果表明:倾斜涡度发展是“龙王”台风在福建沿海产生大暴雨的重要机制之一,湿位涡能够对暴雨落区的预报有较强的指示性作用,暴雨产生在θse线陡立的对流层中低层MPV1等值线密集带中零线附近,对流层中高层的MPV2负值区可以作为暖湿气流或涡旋活动的示踪;另外,对流层中高层中高纬度冷空气扩散南下与台风的东南暖湿空气在福建沿海交汇,加剧了气旋性涡度发展,对暴雨的发生发展也有巨大的作用。  相似文献   

Changes of the cosmic-ray mass composition in the 10–10 eV energy range     

K. Bernlöhr  W. Hofmann  G. Leffers  V. Matheis  M. Panter  R. Zink 《Astroparticle Physics》1998,8(4):253-264

Data taken with ten Cosmic Ray Tracking (CRT) detectors and the HEGRA air-shower array on La Palma, Canary Islands, have been analysed to investigate changes of the cosmic ay mass composition at the ‘knee’ of the cosmic-ray flux spectrum near 10¹⁵ eV energy. The analysis is based on the angular distributions of particles in air showers. HEGRA data provided the shower size, direction, and core position and CRT data the particle track information. It is shown that the angular distribution of muons in air showers is sensitive to the composition over a wide range of shower sizes and, thus, primary cosmic-ray energies with little systematic uncertainties. Results can be easily expressed in terms of ln A of primary cosmic rays. In the lower part of the energy range covered, we have considerable overlap with direct composition measurements by the JACEE collaboration and find compatible results in the observed rise of ln A. Above about 10¹⁵ eV energy we find no or at most a slow further rise of ln A. Simple cosmic-ray composition models are presented which are fully consistent with our results as well as the JACEE flux and composition measurements and the flux measurements of the Tibet ASγ collaboration. Minimal three-parameter composition models defined by the same power-law slope of all elements below the knee and a common change in slope at a fixed rigidity are inconsistent with these data.  相似文献   

Deterministic and ensemble storm surge prediction for Atlantic Canada with lead times of hours to ten days     

《Ocean Modelling》2015

Regional deterministic and ensemble surge prediction systems (RDSPS and RESPS respectively) are used to forecast sea levels off the east of Canada and northeast US. The surge models for the RDSPS and RESPS have grid spacings of 1/30° and 1/12° respectively. The models are driven by surface air pressure and 10 m winds generated by operational global deterministic and ensemble prediction systems that are run operationally by the Canadian Meteorological Centre. Surge forecasts are evaluated for the period 1 March, 2013 to 31 March 2014. Based on traditional statistics (e.g., standard deviation of the difference between observations and predictions) both systems are shown to have skill in forecasting surges six days into the future. It is shown however that skill exists beyond six days if allowance is made for errors in the timing of large surges. The usefulness of the RESPS is demonstrated for two positive surges (important for coastal flooding and erosion) and a negative surge (important for safe navigation in shallow water). It is shown that the RESPS can identify events not forecast by the RDSPS, and can also add useful additional information on the timing of the surge, an important consideration in tidally dominated waters. Several new types of display are used to illustrate the sort of information that can be generated by the RESPS to support the issuers of warnings of unusually high and low total water levels.  相似文献   

一种风暴轴逐日监测的方法及应用   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

顾聪  朱伟军 《气象科学》2015,35(3):268-278

提出了一种风暴轴逐日监测的方法, 可以获得逐日的风暴轴变化情况。并且采用了动态阈值定义了新的风暴轴的强度和位置指数, 从而可以有效对比不同层次、不同区域、不同时间的风暴轴变化情况。利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料进行了监测结果的诊断分析。结果表明:各气象要素滤波结果都能表现出两个风暴轴主体, 但有位置上的差别。同时可以利用逐日检测的结果求得逐候、逐月的风暴轴监测结果。在不同高度的风暴轴中, 250~300 hPa高度的风暴轴强度最大, 850 hPa有极小值出现, 各层风暴轴强度呈现准正压结构。采用500 hPa高度场风暴轴监测结果做代表, 讨论了两大洋上各自的风暴轴偏强/偏弱、偏东/偏西、偏北/偏南时同期大气环流的500 hPa高度场和300 hPa纬向风场差异。  相似文献   

Impact of Assimilating Radiances with the WRFDA ETKF/3DVAR Hybrid System on Prediction of Two Typhoons in 2012          下载免费PDF全文

XU Dongmei  HUANG Xiang-Yu  WANG Hongli  Arthur P. MIZZI  MIN Jinzhong 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2015,29(1):28-40

The impacts of AMSU-A and IASI (Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer) radiances assimila-tion on the prediction of typhoons Vicente and Saola (2012) are studied by using the ensemble transform ...  相似文献   

Joint inversion of temperature,vitrinite reflectance and fission tracks in apatite with examples from the eastern North Sea area     

Søren B. Nielsen  Niels Balling 《Basin Research》2023,35(1):439-469

As sediment accumulation indicates basin subsidence, erosion often is understood as tectonic uplift, but the amplitude and timing may be difficult to determine because the sedimentary record is missing. Quantification of erosion therefore requires indirect evidence, for example thermal indicators such as temperature, vitrinite reflectance and fission tracks in apatite. However, as always, the types and quality of data and the choice of models are important to the results. For example, considering only the thermal evolution of the sedimentary section discards the thermal time constant of the lithosphere and essentially ignores the temporal continuity of the thermal structure. Furthermore, the types and density of thermal indicators determine the solution space of deposition and erosion, the quantification of which calls for the use of inverse methods, which can only be successful when all models are mutually consistent. Here, we use integrated basin modelling and Markov Chain Monte Carlo inversion of four deep boreholes to show that the erosional pattern along the Sorgenfrei–Tornquist Zone (STZ) in the eastern North Sea is consistent with a tectonic model of tectonic inversion based on compression and relaxation of an elastic plate. Three wells in close proximity SW of the STZ have different data and exhibit characteristic differences in erosion estimates but are consistent with the formation of a thick chalk sequence, followed by minor Cenozoic erosion during relaxation inversion. The well on the inversion ridge requires ca. 1.7 km Jurassic-Early Cretaceous sedimentation followed by Late Cretaceous–Palaeocene erosion during inversion. No well demands thick Cenozoic sedimentation followed by equivalent significant Neogene exhumation. When data are of high quality and models are consistent, the thermal indicator method yields significant results with important tectonic and geodynamic implications.  相似文献   

一种基于Storm编程模型的迭代Topology方案     

杜政颉  王鹏黄焱  郎福通 《成都信息工程学院学报》2014,(1):47-51

为解决Storm编程模型无法处理具有迭代结构的应用程序的问题,从迭代结构程序的特点出发,在Storm编程模型的基础上通过增加Receiver、IBolt、Checker组件组建迭代Topology,设计了一种可以处理迭代结构的编程模型,分析了这种模型实现原理,对这种模型的新增组件和其对应的应用程序接口进行介绍和分析,同时,在Storm系统架构基础上设计了一种迭代Topology的实现方案,描述了这种实现方式下解决具有迭代结构程序的具体过程,最后使用这种模型模拟实现K-Means算法,实例论证这种迭代模型的可行性。  相似文献   

Sheltered coastal environments as archives of paleo-tsunami deposits: Observations from the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami     

《Journal of Asian Earth Sciences》2014

The 2004 earthquake left several traces of coseismic land deformation and tsunami deposits, both on the islands along the plate boundary and distant shores of the Indian Ocean rim countries. Researchers are now exploring these sites to develop a chronology of past events. Where the coastal regions are also inundated by storm surges, there is an additional challenge to discriminate between the deposits formed by these two processes. Paleo-tsunami research relies largely on finding deposits where preservation potential is high and storm surge origin can be excluded. During the past decade of our work along the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and the east coast of India, we have observed that the 2004 tsunami deposits are best preserved in lagoons, inland streams and also on elevated terraces. Chronological evidence for older events obtained from such sites is better correlated with those from Thailand, Sri Lanka and Indonesia, reiterating their usefulness in tsunami geology studies.  相似文献