Impact of horizontal resolution on prediction of tropical cyclones over Bay of Bengal using a regional weather prediction model     

M. Mandal  U. C. Mohanty  K. V. J. Potty  A. Sarkar 《Journal of Earth System Science》2003,112(1):79-93

The present study is carried out to examine the performance of a regional atmospheric model in forecasting tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal and its sensitivity to horizontal resolution. Two cyclones, which formed over the Bay of Bengal during the years 1995 and 1997, are simulated using a regional weather prediction model with two horizontal resolutions of 165 km and 55 km. The model is found to perform reasonably well towards simulation of the storms. The structure, intensity and track of the cyclones are found to be better simulated by finer resolution of the model as compared to the coarse resolution. Rainfall amount and its distribution are also found to be sensitive to the model horizontal resolution. Other important fields, viz., vertical velocity, horizontal divergence and horizontal moisture flux are also found to be sensitive to model horizontal resolution and are better simulated by the model with finer horizontal grids.  相似文献   

Sediment Phosphorus Chemistry and Microbial Biomass along a Lowland New Zealand Stream   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

R. W. McDowell 《Aquatic Geochemistry》2003,9(1):19-40

An evaluation of the distribution of P concentrations in streamflow, P fractions andthe microbial biomass P pool was made of bed and bank sediments along a lowlandstream in New Zealand. Agricultural intensification increased downstream. However,most P fractions decreased downstream (total P decreased from c. 400 to 250 mg kg^-1) in bed sediments, while P in streamflow remained relatively constant (generally < 0.005 mg l^-1) and sediment microbial P increased from 2 to 8 mg kg^-1. An investigation of P release from dried and rewetted sediments showed that solution P (CaCl2-P) increased, on average > 300%, and proportional to the size of the microbial biomass P pool before drying, except in sediments with much organic carbon (OC). When supplied with a P source (1 mg l^-1) and then simultaneously with a C source (glucose, 100 mg l^-1), all sediment behaved similarly and biotic sorption accounted for, on average, 27 and 34% of the total sediment uptake, respectively (maximum of 58%). The quantity of P taken up was related to the initial size of the microbial biomass P pool, and the availability of P as influenced by organic P complexes and OC. The sediment microbial biomass represents a transient, but small store of P could be useful to indicate bioavailable P inputs.  相似文献   

中国北方两种现代草地动物牙齿珐琅质δ~(13)C值与植被类型的关系初探     

李玉梅  刘东生  韩家懋  洪业汤  朱咏煊  董丽敏  彭建华 《矿物岩石地球化学通报》2003,(2)

在简单了解研究区的植被、气候状况的基础上 ,分析了内蒙古锡林郭勒和青海海北两种典型草地食草动物牙齿的δ1 3C值 ,测定了采样点表土有机质的δ1 3C值。锡林郭勒的表土有机质碳同位素组成略分散 ,且与植被和微环境密切相关。海北的表层土壤有机质碳同位素组成比较集中。两地的碳同位素组成都偏轻 ,是植被中C4植物含量少的反映。两地放牧动物的珐琅质δ1 3C值分别比当地植物偏重 12 .9‰和 13.5‰ ,或 14 .1‰和 14 .7‰。火灾等高温过程对动物牙齿的碳同位素组成可能没有显著影响  相似文献   

Mid-holocene climate change in Lake Bosumtwi, Ghana     

James Russell  Michael R TalbotBrian J Haskell 《Quaternary Research》2003,60(2):133-141

Lake Bosumtwi is one of the most widely studied palaeoclimate archives in West Africa. Results from numerous AMS ¹⁴C dates of samples from four piston cores from Lake Bosumtwi show that an abrupt sedimentary transition from a mid-Holocene sapropel to calcareous laminated muds occurred at about 3200 cal yr B.P. High-resolution analyses of the nitrogen isotopic composition of organic matter across this transition confirm its abrupt nature, and suggest that the change may signal a step toward increased aridity and intensified surface winds that affected western equatorial Africa from Ghana to the Congo basin. Northern and Eastern Africa experienced a similar abrupt shift toward aridity during the late Holocene, but at about 5000 cal yr B.P., a difference in timing that illustrates the regional nature of climate changes during the Holocene and the importance of feedback mechanisms in regulating Holocene climate variability. Furthermore, an abrupt change at about 3000 cal yr B.P. occurs at several sites adjacent to the tropical and subtropical Atlantic, which may hint at major changes in the surface temperatures of the tropical Atlantic and/or Pacific at this time.  相似文献   

影响韶关的热带气旋及其暴雨预报     

叶永恒 《广东气象》2003,(3):7-9

统计1965年以来影响韶关的热带气旋发现，韶关出现暴雨不仅与热带气旋的路径、强度有关，而且与大气层结稳定度或冷空气的相互作用密切相关。由此结合实况、应用数值预报产品来制作热带气旋暴雨24小时预报。  相似文献   

滞后平均法（LAF）在热带气旋路径集合预报中的应用   总被引：7，自引：8，他引：7       下载免费PDF全文

周霞琼  张秀珍  端义宏  朱永褆 《气象科学》2003,23(4):410-417

本文用-正压模式，采用滞后平均法(LAF)对2000年热带气旋进行路径集合预报试验，并与基于热带气旋初始结构扰动的集合预报方法进行了比较分析，结果表明LAF方法对热带气旋路径预报具有较好的改进作用。但LAF的集合预报效果受模式本身误差的影响，在完美模式的假设下，LAF集合预报相对于控制试验的技巧水平20～40％。  相似文献   

广东近海台风路径异常的统计特征   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5       下载免费PDF全文

毛绍荣张东  梁健李晓娟  翁向宇 《应用气象学报》2003,14(3):348-355

对1949~2000年的52年间在广东沿海近岸转折或沿海岸移动的热带气旋异常路径进行了统计分析，同时还研究了广东沿海的地形特征。结果发现，转折点 (或靠岸点) 主要集中在有明显山脉地形的区域，同时靠岸前热带气旋有移速减慢的特征。另外还发现，转折前强度越强，则转折点离岸越近；靠岸前平均移速越小，则转折角度越大；靠岸前强度越强，则其沿海岸移动所需入射角越小。  相似文献   

Variability of NO₂ in different environments at a moderately polluted island over the southwestern Indian Ocean     

Chatrapatty Bhugwant  Jean-Luc Hoareau 《Atmospheric Research》2003,66(4):241-259

This work presents the temporal evolution and spatial distribution of nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) measured with the help of passive diffusion tubes in different environments: rural, sub-urban, urban, at La Réunion Island in December 1997 and November 2000 (austral spring), respectively. NO₂ concentration exhibits notable enhancement from 1997 to 2000. For instance, its mean concentration was 16 and 20 μg/m³ in December 1997 and November 2000, respectively, at La Réunion Island, especially in inhabited regions due to increase of local anthropogenic activities, mainly traffic circulation, in the absence of house heating and biomass burning. We also observe a net increase of pollutant levels by a factor two in rural/remote areas within 3 years, which is tied to the extension of inhabited areas and air-flows from enhanced local sources. The increase of atmospheric pollutants is mainly due to enhancement of anthropogenic activities (traffic) since the 1990s at La Réunion Island, which results from a constant increase of population and consequently, from a higher number of vehicles in circulation. Importantly, in cities like Saint-Denis, where traffic network has been subject to notable improvement (e.g. single to double lanes, etc.), pollutant levels exhibit little variability as in temperate continental latitudes. Semi-continuous NO₂ concentration measured in parallel with ozone in November 2000 also showed that daytime photochemical ozone production is influenced by pollutant and precursor (NO₂) levels at Saint-Denis, while nighttime ozone increase is mainly tied to dynamical processes. The November 2000 ozone diurnal pattern is notably different from that observed in September 1995, during which a daytime ozone loss was observed, pointing out that atmospheric conditions have been subject to notable changes, i.e., clean to moderately polluted, within a few years at La Réunion Island. The results presented here point out that the ‘source enhancement effect’ is superimposed on dynamical and photochemical processes to influence pollutants variability and hence atmospheric chemistry, in a quite ‘pristine’ tropical oceanic region.  相似文献   

用卡尔曼滤波预报南海热带气旋路径的试验   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

刘春霞  周家斌 《热带气象学报》1997,13(4):359-356

利用卡尔曼滤波方法预报南海热带气旋路径，发现采用卡尔曼滤波可以大大地降低预报误差，提高预测模型的预报能力。  相似文献   

Small-scale vegetation dynamics in semi-arid steppe in Inner Mongolia     

Wei Zhang  Christina Skarpe 《Journal of Arid Environments》1996,34(4):421-439

Small-scale vegetation dynamics were followed for ecotones and in uniform stands inArtemisia-dominated steppe vegetation under grazing and when recovering from heavy grazing. Species composition was followed annually for 5 years in 1 m²and 0·25 m²plots for (1) presence–absence; (2) density; and (3) biomass.More rapid vegetation dynamics, in terms of change of type of vegetation and distance moved in DCA species space between sampling occasions, were observed in smaller plots and in early seral stages, where species were few and alpha diversity low. Only the plots recently protected from grazing showed a directional vegetation change; those protected for more than 3 years and those under continued grazing showed, at this scale, non-directional dynamics.  相似文献