Evaluation of wave impact loads on caisson breakwaters based on joint probability of impact maxima and rise times     

Giovanni Cuomo  Rodolfo Piscopia  William Allsop 《Coastal Engineering》2011

When waves break against seawalls, vertical breakwaters, piers or jetties, they abruptly transfer their momentum into the structure. This energy transfer is always spectacular and perpetually unrepeatable but can also be very violent and affect the stability and the integrity of coastal structures. Over the last 15 years, increasing awareness of wave-impact induced structural failures of maritime structures has emphasised the need for a more complete approach to dynamic responses, including effects of impulsive loads. At the same time, movement of design standards toward probabilistic approaches requires new statistical tools able to account for uncertainties in the variability of wave loading processes. This paper presents a new approach to the definition of loads for use in performance design of vertical coastal structures subject to breaking wave impacts.  相似文献   

Characterizing impulsive wave-in-deck loads on coastal bridges by probabilistic models of impact maxima and rise times     

Francesco Serinaldi  Giovanni Cuomo 《Coastal Engineering》2011

When waves impact a seawall, a vertical breakwater, an exposed jetty, a pier or a coastal bridge, they abruptly transfer their momentum into the structure. This energy transfer can be very violent and its duration exceptionally short. In the case of coastal bridges, whose spans are designed to have very short vibration period, wave impacts might have duration comparable to the natural period of oscillation of the structure, which therefore becomes prone to damage and failure. Previous forensic studies have documented the relative importance of impulsive loads on deck suspended structure, demonstrating the need to assess the effect of wave impacts on both the stability and the integrity of structural members since the early stages of the design. This requires the estimation of the dynamic characteristics of the loading pattern, and in particular the wave impulse and corresponding impact maxima and rise times. Based on the conservation of momentum, functional relationships between these parameters have been identified since pioneering work dating back to the late '30s of the 20th century. The complexity of the loading process, however, results in a significantly large variability of wave impact maxima and rise times even under similar conditions, suggesting the need for a probabilistic approach to the definition of the relationship between these two variables, to be applied when estimating the dynamic properties of wave for use in structural analysis of coastal structures. In the recent past, some effort has been made to identify functional relationships between such quantities; these require the assessment of the conditional quantiles (or similarly the conditional distribution) of wave impact maxima given the rise times. In this paper, we compare three different statistical methods proposed in the literature to accomplish this task, in order to assess the reliability of the approach and suggest guidelines for practical applications. A copula-based method, Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS), and quantile regression are applied to measurements from large-scale 3-dimensional physical model tests. The investigation suggests that quantile regression gives the simplest results to be used in practice; copula approach and GAMLSS are possible alternative when semi-parametric or fully parametric modeling is needed.  相似文献   

清代东蒙农业开发的消长及其气候变化背景     

萧凌波  方修琦  叶瑜 《地理研究》2011,30(10):1775-1782

利用档案史料、建置沿革史研究成果等提取信息,建立历史代用指标序列,对清代（1644～1911）内蒙古东部地区农业开发的时空进程进行描述,结合当地农业气候资源条件（温度、降水）及清代气候变化（温度）探讨其中的气候因素。结果显示：（1）清代东蒙农业开发集中在现代年均≥10℃积温2500℃、降水量400mm以上区域之内;（2...  相似文献   

Modelling the impact of a hypothetical sub-Plinian eruption at La Soufrière of Guadeloupe (Lesser Antilles)     

R. Spence  J.-C. Komorowski  K. Saito  A. Brown  A. Pomonis  G. Toyos  P. Baxter 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2008

This paper describes the development and application of an impact model for a future hypothetical sub-Plinian eruption of La Soufrière of Guadeloupe. The model was designed to assess the impact from either a single or multiple eruption scenarios, each defined in terms of a map of the intensity of three volcanic hazards; volcanogenic earthquake, tephra fallout and pyroclastic density currents. The impact from the three hazards can be assessed independently or alternatively the joint impact of the three hazards can be assessed. The outputs that are produced from the model are; the number of buildings with collapsed roofs, and the number of fatal and non-fatal casualties.  相似文献   

中国人口和富裕对环境的影响   总被引：32，自引：1，他引：31  

徐中民  程国栋 《冰川冻土》2005,27(5):767-773

辨明人类活动各因素对环境影响作用的大小,并依此找寻发展的对策是当前可持续发展研究的核心问题之一.分析了IPAT等式在分解环境影响中人文因素的作用;采用生态足迹作为环境影响的测量指标,利用STIRPAT模型,以1999年中国各省市的截面数据为例,分析了人口数量、富裕程度、现代化及经济区位和自然区位对环境影响的具体作用,并在此基础上探讨了中国各省(市)的技术生态效益.结果表明:人口数量是当前环境影响的一个主要驱动因子,环境影响与人口数量近同比例变化,富裕程度或现代化程度增加也将加剧人类对环境的影响.在观测数据范围内,分析结果不支持存在环境Kuznets曲线的观点.最后分析讨论了不支持存在环境Kuznets曲线的原因及STIRPAT模型的优缺点,并指出社会适应性能力可作为下一步深入研究的方向.  相似文献   

澜沧江—湄公河水电梯级开发的生态影响   总被引：31，自引：2，他引：29  

陈丽晖  何大明 《地理学报》2000,55(5):577-586

针对次澜沦江－湄公河区域快速增长的能源需求,以及国际社会对该流域水电开发的经济、生态和社会问题的关注,集中分析了流域干流水电梯级开发对生态环境的综合影响,提出了能满足各流域国对能源、防洪、灌溉、水生生态保护和减轻海水倒灌等多方面需求的对策措施。  相似文献   

气候波动对莱州湾地区水资源及极端旱涝事件的影响   总被引：13，自引：4，他引：9  

邓慧平  李爱贞  刘厚风  陈淑芬  张雪芹 《地理科学》2000,20(1):56-60

通过对莱州湾地区１９６０～１９９３年气候波动水资源及极端旱涝事件的影响分析,楞以看出该地区水资源对气候波动敏感。当降水增加１０％,全区水资源总量可增加２２％;若降水减少１０％,全区水资源总量则减少２３％。在气候处于少雨时期,极端干旱频高远高于多雨时期。同时还分析了未来气候变化对莱州湾地区水资源的可能影响。  相似文献   

北极快速增暖背景下冰冻圈变化及其影响研究综述   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

蔡子怡  游庆龙  陈德亮  张若楠  陈金雷  康世昌 《冰川冻土》2021,43(3):902-916

北极具有独特的地理位置和战略地位,是当前全球变化研究的热点区域之一.北极增暖是全球平均值的两倍以上,被称为"北极放大"现象.在北极快速增暖背景下,冰冻圈尤其是海冰显著萎缩,对北极乃至中纬度天气气候产生深远影响.对北极快速增暖背景下冰冻圈主要要素(包括海冰、冰盖、冰川、积雪和冻土)时空变化特征及未来预估进行了综述,同时总...  相似文献   

Vegetation,fire and climate history of the Lesser Caucasus: a new Holocene record from Zarishat fen (Armenia)          下载免费PDF全文

SÉBASTIEN JOANNIN  ADAM A. ALI  VINCENT OLLIVIER  PAUL ROIRON  ODILE PEYRON  SAMY CHEVAUX  SAMUEL NAHAPETYAN  PETROS TOZALAKYAN  ARKADI KARAKHANYAN  CHRISTINE CHATAIGNER 《第四纪科学杂志》2014,29(1):70-82

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