The special climate change fund: origins and prioritisation assessment     

Valentina Bosetti  Marzio Galeotti  Alessandro Lanza 《Climate Policy》2013,13(3):295-312

Abstract

A central issue in tackling climate change is to understand to what extent different short-term mitigation strategies are consistent with long-term stabilization targets. The present article aims at cross-comparing emission paths derived by plausible short-term policies against those implied by long-term climate targets, comparing, for example, differences in peak periods. Short-term policies considered are, for instance, Kyoto-type targets with or without participation by the USA and/or by developing countries. Long-term targets focus instead on stabilization of CO₂ concentrations, radiative forcing and the increase in atmospheric temperature relative to pre-industrial levels. In order to account for the uncertainty surrounding the climate cycle, for each long-term goal multiple paths of emission—the most probable, the optimistic and the pessimistic projections—are considered in the comparison exercise. Comparative analysis is performed using the FEEM-RICE model, a regional economy—climate model. The results suggest that some early policy action should take place for short-term emissions to be compatible with long-term targets. In particular, the Kyoto-type regimes appear to be on a compatible emission path, at least up to the second commitment period. However, this is no longer the case when assuming a pessimistic realization of the uncertain climate parameters.  相似文献   

The impact of the unilateral EU commitment on the stability of international climate agreements     

《Climate Policy》2013,13(2):148-166

The negotiation strategy of the European Union was analysed with respect to the formation of an international climate agreement for the post-2012 era. Game theory was employed to explore the incentives for key players in the climate policy arena to join future climate agreements. A ?20% unilateral commitment strategy by the EU was compared with a multilateral ?30% emission reduction strategy for all Annex-B countries. Using a numerical integrated assessment climate—economy simulation model, we found that leakage, in the sense of strategic policy reactions on emissions, was negligible. The EU strategy to reduce emissions by 30% (compared with 1990 levels) by 2020, if other Annex-B countries follow suit, does not induce the participation of the USA with a comparable reduction commitment. However, we argue that the original EU proposal can be reshaped so as to stabilize a larger and more ambitious climate coalition than the Kyoto Protocol in its first commitment period.  相似文献   

Economics of climate change: risk and responsibility by world region     

《Climate Policy》2013,13(3):298-316

The impacts of predicted climate change will not be distributed evenly around the world. As post-Kyoto negotiations unfold, relating the geographical distribution of projected impacts to responsibility for emissions among world regions is essential for achieving an equitable path forward. This article surveys the current knowledge of regional climate consequences, and delves into the regional predictions of economic assessment models to date, examining how the uncertainties, assumptions and ethical dimensions influence the portrayal of risk at this scale. The few studies that quantitatively compared regional risk and responsibility are reviewed, and the analytical framework from one such study is applied to the 2006 Stern Review's projections to give the first regional comparison to take purchasing power and welfare considerations into account. Synthesizing burden and blame in this way is informative for policy makers; the world's most vulnerable communities—in Africa, the Indian subcontinent, Latin America, and small island states—accounted for less than 33% of global greenhouse gas emissions over the period 1961–2000, but may experience more than 75% of the ensuing climate damages this century. This analysis reinforces the call for industrialized nations to lead mitigation efforts, and to do so decisively and swiftly.  相似文献   

重庆强对流短临业务评分方法     

张勇  牟容  潘颖  史利汉 《气象科技》2013,41(3):594-596

结合重庆本地实际情况,以区/县为单位对强对流中出现的短历时强降水、阵性大风及雷电进行业务质量定量评估.短历时强降水、阵性大风基于加密站观测资料采用分级的方式来评定,对雷电的评定基于ADTD系统观测到地闪资料并判断所在区/县是否有地闪出现.介绍了重庆本地强对流短临业务评分方法及开发的评分软件.从2011年的评分结果看,该评分方法在重庆本地是比较合理的,在业务应用上是可行的.  相似文献   

基于BP模型的渔业资源可持续利用综合动态评价     

陈新军  周应祺 《广东海洋大学学报》2002,22(6):38-44

在对传统可持续发展评价方法进行评述的基础上 ,利用神经网络具有自组织、自学习、自适应以及非线性等功能 ,提出了以BP模型为基础包括经济、社会和资源环境三个方面的渔业资源可持续利用综合动态评价方法 ,该方法克服了传统上单纯从生物方面进行资源评价的缺陷。并以东海区 1978～ 1990年的渔业资源可持续利用状况为例进行了实证分析 ,建立以BP模型为基础的东海区渔业资源可持续利用的综合动态评价模型。  相似文献   

NECESSITY AND METHOD OF PUBLIC PARTICIPATION IN STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OF CHINA     

RENLi-jun SHANGJin-cheng 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2005,15(1):42-46

1INTRODUCTIONFor recent years, many countries have increasingly paidattention to the research on strategic environmental as-sessment (SEA) and taken it as one of key supportingtools for pursing sustainable development (BROWNand THERIVEL, 2000; PRARTIDARIO…  相似文献   

Improving the methodology for assessing natural hazard impacts   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Anand Patwardhan  Upasna Sharma   《Global and Planetary Change》2005,47(2-4):253

The impacts of natural hazards such as cyclones have been conventionally measured through changes in human, social and economic capital, typically represented by stock variables such as population, built property and public infrastructure, livestock, agricultural land, etc. This paper develops an alternative approach that seeks to detect and quantify impacts as changes in flow variables. In particular, we explore whether changes in annual agricultural output, when measured at an appropriate spatial level, could be used to measure impacts associated with tropical cyclones in coastal regions of India. We believe that such an approach may have a number of benefits from a policy perspective, particularly with regard to the debate between relief versus recovery as disaster management strategies. A focus on flow variables is also likely to be more relevant and useful in developing countries; the maintenance of economic activity directly affects livelihood and is perhaps of greater importance than loss of built property or other physical capital.  相似文献   

南海区多鱼种声学评估工作程序   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

李永振  陈国宝  孙典荣  张旭丰 《广东海洋大学学报》2003,23(1):35-40

总结了利用SimradEK50 0声学系统进行了南海区多鱼种资源评估经验 ,介绍了多鱼种声学评估的工作流程 ,包括调查方案制定、声学数据采集、映像分析、积分值分配、资源量的计算方法等关键过程 ,同时及在工作中应该注意的细节。  相似文献   

Organochlorines and dioxin-like compounds in green-lipped mussels Perna viridis from Hong Kong mariculture zones     

So MK  Zhang X  Giesy JP  Fung CN  Fong HW  Zheng J  Kramer MJ  Yoo H  Lam PK 《Marine pollution bulletin》2005,51(8-12):677-687

Concentrations of persistent organic pollutants including polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), organochlorine (OC) pesticides and dioxin-like compounds were measured in green-lipped mussels, Perna viridis, collected from seven mariculture zones in Hong Kong between September and October in 2002 in order to evaluate the status, spatial distribution and potential sources of pollution in these areas. Concentrations ranged from 300 to 4400 ng/g lipid weight for total OCs and 170–1000 ng/g lipid weight for total PCBs (based on 28 congeners). Relatively smaller DDT concentrations in mussels compared with previous studies suggest reduced discharges of DDTs from nearby regions into Hong Kong waters. Detection of a mixture of HCH isomers in the mussels indicated that Hong Kong waters were predominantly contaminated by technical HCHs rather than lindane. Mussel samples from all sampling locations elicited significant dioxin-like activity in the H4IIE-luc bioassay. The greatest magnitude of dioxin-like response (39 pg TEQ/g wet wt.) was detected in mussels from Ma Wan in the western waters of Hong Kong, which is strongly influenced by the Pearl River discharge. Human health risk assessment was undertaken to evaluate potential risks associated with the consumption of the green-lipped mussels. Risk quotient (RQ) for dioxin-like compounds was greater than unity suggesting that adverse health effects may be associated with high mussel consumption.  相似文献   

Assessing surface water quality of the Yangtze Estuary with genotoxicity data   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Wu JY 《Marine pollution bulletin》2005,50(12):1661-1667

The present study investigated the genotoxicity of the surface water samples from the Yangtze Estuary with the Ames test in three seasons. Several important chemical parameters, such as COD inorganic nitrogen, active phosphate and heavy metals, were also analyzed at the same time. According the results, surface water samples from the south branch and a few of samples at the seaward end of the Yangtze Estuary show positive genotoxicity in some seasons. Chemical analysis revealed that the Yangtze Estuary was seriously polluted by inorganic nitrogen and by active phosphate. However, chemical parameters could not demonstrate the spatial variation of water quality of the estuary, and they could not assess adverse effects of chemicals in mixtures as well. Therefore, it is recommended that genotoxicity data, mutation rate of the Salmonella typhimurium strain TA98 at the dose of 1 l per plate, be taken as a new parameter assessing surface water quality of the Yangtze Estuary. Our studies also suggested that genetic toxicology assays, such as the Ames test, could be applied as a routine measure to monitoring marine environment in China. The paper proposes a development of the National Seawater Quality Standard of China.  相似文献