2009年汛期山西横切变暴雨的可预报性分析     

苗爱梅  袁崇明 《山西气象》2009,(4):16-23

利用常规和非常规气象观测资料,针对2009年汛期山西境内出现的5次横切变区域性暴雨天气过程进行流型配置、物理量诊断、卫星雷达资料以及可预报性综合分析发现：对流性或混合性暴雨,在暴雨发生前12 h 500 hPa及其以下都具有θse随高度的增加而减小、500 hPa以上都具有θse随高度的增加而增加的特征,稳定性暴雨则具有θse随高度的增加而增加的特征.5次暴雨过程500 hPa副高均为纬向型,700 hPa均有西南急流轴配合以及大陆小高压相伴.分析结果表明：小高压的位置不同导致了不同风向的辐合和不同走向的横切变线产生,急流头向北伸展的纬度不同导致了横切变线所处的纬度差异,直接影响暴雨的落区;低涡的强度不同使得降水量发生明显的差异;高低空系统配置越完整暴雨落区和量级的可预报性也越强;连阴雨过程中垂直速度、水汽通量散度、垂直风切变是提前24 h判断暴雨发生与否的敏感因子,卫星和雷达资料是短时和临近强降水预报的有效工具.  相似文献   

基于双线性内插值的CD雷达垂直剖面算法   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

熊伟  周明飞  潘徐艳 《贵州气象》2010,34(3):7-11

该文针对贵州CD型号新一代多普勒天气雷达反射率因子,采用C#编程,经坐标转换后处理成三维网格数据,基于双线性内插值法,实现任意方向雷达反射率因子垂直剖面制作,结合贵阳雷达分析,结果表明双线性内插值法放大后的图像质量较高,解决了因垂直剖面图像较小不利于显示及放大的问题。  相似文献   

一次高压型海雾中的液态含水量演变特征   总被引：7，自引：2，他引：5  

李晓娜  黄健  申双和  刘寿东  吕卫华 《热带气象学报》2010,26(1):79-85

2008年3月16—17日在粤西电白出现了一次在高压天气系统控制下的海雾过程。利用这次海雾的综合观测数据,分析了这一高压型海雾的液态含水量演变特征,讨论了液态含水量与雾滴平均直径和数密度以及气温、风速、湍流交换等的关系。结果显示:(1)海雾有发展-消散-再发展的准周期性变化特征;(2)海雾过程中的雾滴数有显著的变化,而雾滴平均直径的变化较小;雾滴数变化对海雾的发展、消散起主要作用;(3)在海雾生成和发展阶段,空气的冷却机制起主要作用;而在海雾的维持阶段冷却机制的作用并不明显;(4)在雾的生成阶段,弱湍流交换有利于雾的生成;而在雾的发展和维持阶段,湍流交换减弱,液态水增长,反之液态水减少。湍流交换的强、弱与海雾发展-消散-再发展的周期性变化有密切关系。  相似文献   

2007年梅汛期异常降水的大尺度环流成因分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

金荣花  陈涛  鲍媛媛  王秀文  张芳华 《气象》2008,34(4):79-85

为深入理解江淮梅雨持续性强降水的大气演变过程,探讨中期预报技术途径,利用NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析数据和历史梅雨特征指数等资料,系统地分析了2007年梅汛期异常降水的大尺度环流成因.结果表明:梅汛期,西北太平洋副热带高压稳定和7月中下旬持续偏南,决定了2007年梅汛期降水的时间和地域分布特征.阻塞高压的频繁出现和副热带季风涌的异常强盛为梅雨锋维持和加强提供了有利的动力、热力以及水汽条件;"伊朗型"南亚高压的活动以及东亚上空副热带急流通过高低空耦合动力作用,不仅为持续性暴雨创造了良好的垂直环流结构,也间接抑制了副高北抬.在此研究基础上,归纳出中期预报着眼点,供实际业务预报参考使用.  相似文献   

S波段多普勒天气雷达旁瓣回波的特征分析   总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2  

廖玉芳  俞小鼎  吴林林  李耨周  居晶琳 《热带气象学报》2008,24(2):183-188

通过对2002～2005年S波段多普勒天气雷达上旁瓣回波的分析,描述了其在基本反射率因子、径向速度、速度谱宽PPI图及反射率因子和径向速度垂直剖面图上的形态特征.在7次强对流事件的19个雹暴云中发现有6次强对流事件10个雹暴云共产生旁瓣回波110次(基于反射率因子仰角产品的统计).统计结果表明:形成旁瓣回波最小反射率因子强度为60 dBz,97.3%的旁瓣回波出现在反射率因子强度≥63 dBz时,旁瓣回波出现在50～100 km距离段内的机率最大;旁瓣回波出现的最大高度为11 km,最低高度是1 km,97.3%的旁瓣回波出现在1～9 km高度之间,69.1%的旁瓣回波出现在3～6 km高度之间,以4～5 km高度出现次数最多,然后向上、向下减少.据灾情调查报告分析,强降雹发生在旁瓣回波首次出现后的0～42 min内,表明旁瓣回波对强降雹具有一定的临近预警作用.  相似文献   

Effect of perturbations on the non linear stability of triangular points in the restricted three-body problem with variable mass     

Jagadish Singh 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2009,321(2):127-135

The effect of small perturbations ε and ε ^′ in the Coriolis and the centrifugal forces, respectively on the nonlinear stability of the triangular points in the restricted three-body problem with variable mass has been studied. It is found that, in the nonlinear sense, the triangular points are stable for all mass ratios in the range of linear stability except for three mass ratios, which depend upon ε, ε ^′ and β, the constant due to the variation in mass governed by Jeans’ law.  相似文献   

Interpreting the transmission windows of distant quasars     

A. Maselli  A. Ferrara  S. Gallerani 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,395(4):1925-1933

We propose the apparent shrinking criterion (ASC) to interpret the spatial extent, R _w, of transmitted flux windows in the absorption spectra of high- z quasars. The ASC can discriminate between the two regimes in which R _w corresponds either to the physical size,   R _{H  ii}   , of the quasar H  ii region or to the distance,   R ^max_w  , at which the transmitted flux drops to  =0.1  and a Gunn–Peterson (GP) trough appears. In the first case [H  ii region (HR) regime], one can determine the intergalactic medium mean H  i fraction,   x _H I  ; in the second [proximity region (PR) regime], the value of R _w allows one to measure the local photoionization rate and the local enhancement of the photoionization rate,  Γ_G  , due to nearby/intervening galaxies. The ASC has been tested against radiative transfer+smoothed particle hydrodynamics numerical simulations, and applied to a sample of 15 high-   z ( z > 5.8  ) quasar spectra. All sample quasars are found to be in the PR regime; hence, their observed spectral properties (inner flux profile, extent of transmission window) cannot reliably constrain the value of   x _{H  i}   . Four sample quasars show evidence for a local enhancement (up to 50 per cent) in the local photoionization rate possibly produced by a galaxy overdensity. We discuss the possible interpretations and uncertainties of this result.  相似文献   

The non-linear probability distribution function in models with local primordial non-Gaussianity     

Tsz Yan Lam  Ravi K. Sheth 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,395(3):1743-1748

We use the spherical evolution approximation to investigate non-linear evolution from the non-Gaussian initial conditions characteristic of the local f _nl model. We provide an analytic formula for the non-linearly evolved probability distribution function (PDF) of the dark matter which shows that the underdense tail of the non-linear PDF in the f _nl model should differ significantly from that for Gaussian initial conditions. Measurements of the underdense tail in numerical simulations may be affected by discreteness effects, and we use a Poisson counting model to describe this effect. Once this has been accounted, our model is in good quantitative agreement with the simulations. In principle, our calculation is an important first step in programs which seek to reconstruct the shape of the initial PDF from observations of large-scale structures in the Lyα forest and the galaxy distribution at later times.  相似文献   

Baily’s Beads Atlas in 2005 – 2008 Eclipses     

C. Sigismondi  D. W. Dunham  K. Guhl  S. Andersson  H. Bode  O. Canales  P. Colona  O. Farago  M. Fernández-Ocaña  A. Gabel  M. Haupt  C. Herold  R. Nugent  P. Oliva  M. Patel  C. Perello  W. Rothe  J. Rovira  T. Schaefer  C. Schnabel  D. Schwartz  A. Selva  W. Strickling  A. Tegtmeier  C. Tegtmeier  B. Thome  W. H. Warren 《Solar physics》2009,258(2):191-202

In the annular or total eclipses of 3 October 2005, 29 March 2006, 22 September 2006, and 1 August 2008, observational campaigns were organized to record the phenomenon of Baily’s beads. These campaigns were internationally coordinated through the International Occultation Timing Association (IOTA) at both its American and European sections. From the stations in the northern and southern zones of grazing eclipse, the eclipses have been recorded on video. Afterward, as many beads as possible have been identified by analyzing the video data of each observing station. The atlas presented in this paper includes 598 data points, obtained by 23 observers operating at 28 different observing stations. The atlas lists the geographic positions of the observing stations and the observed time instants of disappearance or reappearance of beads, identified by an angle measured relative to the Moon’s axis of rotation. The atlas will serve as a basis for determining the solar diameter. Electronic Supplementary Material  The online version of this article () contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.  相似文献   

浅谈地图册的设计与编制     

胡捷 《测绘与空间地理信息》2005,28(4):94-96

地图大众化时代悄然而至,缺少地图常识和制作不规范的“垃圾地图”误导人们,给人们生活带来极大不便。时尚、规范的地图册成为时代的需要,本文阐述了设计和编制地图册的一些科学方法和步骤,愿与同行们交流。  相似文献