The paper is dedicated to the review of methods of seismic hazard analysis currently in use, analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches. The review is performed from the perspective of a user of the results of seismic hazard analysis for different applications such as the design of critical and general (non-critical) civil infrastructures, technical and financial risk analysis. A set of criteria is developed for and applied to an objective assessment of the capabilities of different analysis methods. It is demonstrated that traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods have significant deficiencies, thus limiting their practical applications. These deficiencies have their roots in the use of inadequate probabilistic models and insufficient understanding of modern concepts of risk analysis, as have been revealed in some recent large scale studies. These deficiencies result in the lack of ability of a correct treatment of dependencies between physical parameters and finally, in an incorrect treatment of uncertainties. As a consequence, results of PSHA studies have been found to be unrealistic in comparison with empirical information from the real world. The attempt to compensate these problems by a systematic use of expert elicitation has, so far, not resulted in any improvement of the situation. It is also shown that scenario-earthquakes developed by disaggregation from the results of a traditional PSHA may not be conservative with respect to energy conservation and should not be used for the design of critical infrastructures without validation. Because the assessment of technical as well as of financial risks associated with potential damages of earthquakes need a risk analysis, current method is based on a probabilistic approach with its unsolved deficiencies.
Traditional deterministic or scenario-based seismic hazard analysis methods provide a reliable and in general robust design basis for applications such as the design of critical infrastructures, especially with systematic sensitivity analyses based on validated phenomenological models. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis incorporates uncertainties in the safety factors. These factors are derived from experience as well as from expert judgment. Deterministic methods associated with high safety factors may lead to too conservative results, especially if applied for generally short-lived civil structures. Scenarios used in deterministic seismic hazard analysis have a clear physical basis. They are related to seismic sources discovered by geological, geomorphologic, geodetic and seismological investigations or derived from historical references. Scenario-based methods can be expanded for risk analysis applications with an extended data analysis providing the frequency of seismic events. Such an extension provides a better informed risk model that is suitable for risk-informed decision making. 相似文献
The character of convergence along the Arabian–Iranian plate boundary changes radically eastward from the Zagros ranges to
the Makran region. This appears to be due to collision of continental crust in the west, in contrast to subduction of oceanic
crust in the east. The Makran subduction zone with a length of about 900 km display progressively older and highly deformed
sedimentary units northward from the coast, together with an increase in elevation of the ranges. North of the Makran ranges
are large subsiding basins, flanked to the north by active volcanoes. Based on 2D seismic reflection data obtained in this
study, the main structural provinces and elements in the Gulf of Oman include: (i) the structural elements on the northeastern
part of the Arabian Plate and, (ii) the Offshore Makran Accretionary Complex. Based on detailed analysis of these data on
the northeastern part of the Arabian Plate five structural provinces and elements—the Musendam High, the Musendam Peneplain,
the Musendam Slope, the Dibba Zone, and the Abyssal Plain have been identified. Further, the Offshore Makran Accretionary
Complex shown is to consist Accretionary Prism and the For-Arc Basin, while the Accretionary Prism has been subdivided into
the Accretionary Wedge and the Accreted/Colored Mélange. Lastly, it is important to note that the Makran subduction zone lacks
the trench. The identification of these structural elements should help in better understanding the seismicity of the Makran
region in general and the subduction zone in particular. The 1945 magnitude 8.1 tsunamigenic earthquake of the Makran and
some other historical events are illustrative of the coastal region’s vulnerability to future tsunami in the area, and such
data should be of value to the developing Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System. 相似文献
Landslides pose a serious physical and environmental threat to vulnerable communities living in areas of unplanned housing
on steep slopes in the Caribbean. Some of these communities have, in the past, had to be relocated, at costs of millions of
dollars, because of major slides triggered by tropical storm rainfall. Even so, evidence shows that: (1) risk reduction is
a marginal activity; (2) there has been minimal uptake of hazard maps and vulnerability assessments and (3) there is little
on-the-ground delivery of construction for risk reduction. This article directly addresses these issues by developing a low-cost
approach to the identification of the potential pore pressure changes that trigger such slides we seek to address these three
commentaries directly. A complex 45–60° slope site in St Lucia, West Indies was selected as a pilot for a modelling approach
that uses numerical models (FLAC and CHASM) to verify the need for surface water management to effectively reduce landslide
risk. Following the model confirmation, a series of drains were designed and constructed at the site. Post-construction evidence
indicates the methodology to be sound, in that the site was stable in subsequent 1-in-1 to 1-in-4 year rainfall events. A
critical feature of the approach is that it is community-based from data acquisition through to community members participating
in construction. 相似文献