随机森林算法在全球干旱评估中的应用   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

方秀琴  郭晓萌  袁玲  杨露露  任立良  朱求安 《地球信息科学学报》2021,23(6):1040-1049

干旱是发生频率最高,造成社会、经济损失和生态破坏最严重、最广泛的自然灾害之一,因此对干旱进行可靠、有效的评估十分重要。本文以月平均降水、月平均温度、月最高温度、月最低温度、土壤湿度、蒸散发、NDVI、叶绿素荧光等作为解释变量,以基于SPI的干旱等级作为目标变量,采用随机森林算法,以2007—2012年的数据作为训练数据,以2013—2014年的数据作为预测数据,对全球11个气候区分别建立干旱等级评估模型。研究结论如下：SPI的时间尺度影响模型精度,在基于SPI1、SPI3、SPI6和SPI12划分的干旱等级的评估模型中,以基于SPI1的干旱等级为目标变量的模型的预测精度（60%~75%）较高,且模型能够捕捉到EM-DAT旱灾记录次数的90.91%、月份的78.47%,表明该模型对实际干旱事件具有良好的评估性能;干旱等级划分标准对模型的预测性能影响较小,可根据需求选择标准I（干旱/非干旱）或标准Ⅱ（重旱/非重旱）进行干旱评估;解释变量的相对重要性与SPI的时间尺度和气候差异等因素有关。降水对基于SPI1的干旱等级的重要性最大,随着SPI时间尺度的增加,降水的重要性逐渐减小,温度、土壤湿度、NDVI和ET的重要性逐渐增大。降水以外的其他变量在不同气候区的重要性不同。在热带气候区、亚寒带气候区和苔原气候区,温度或蒸散发的影响较大;在干燥气候区,土壤湿度的影响较大;在温带气候区,仍以降水的相对重要性最大;在湿润大陆性气候区,植被对干旱的影响较大。  相似文献   

Mushroom production as an alternative for rural development in a forested mountainous area     

José A. BONET  José R. GONZáLEZ-OLABARRIA  Juan MARTíNEZ DE ARAGóN 《山地科学学报》2014,11(2):535-543

Wild mushrooms are recognized as important non-wood forest products in mountainous ecosystems, but their real potential for generating rural economies has not been fully evaluated due to the difficulties in obtaining reliable productivity data, minimizing their true potential as contributor to rural economies. Mushroom yield models based on large data series from Pinus forest ecosystems in the region of Catalonia(Spain), combined with data from the Spanish National Forest Inventory allow us to estimate the potential mushroom productivity by forest ecosystems. The results of 24,500 tons/yr of mushrooms of which 16,300 tons are classified as edible and 7,900 tons are commonly marketed demonstrate the importance of mushroom productions in Catalonian pine forests, mostly located in mountainous areas where the development of agricultural activities is limited. Economic mushroom value is estimated at 48 million € for the edible mushroom and 32 million € for those corresponding to marketable yields, confirming the potential of this non-wood forest product. These production results and corresponding economic values provide a basis for the incorporation of wild mushrooms as significant non-wood forest products in the development of forest policies in mountainous areas.  相似文献   

The Role of Coffee in the Development of Southwest Ethiopia's Forests: Farmers' Strategies,Investor Speculation,and Certification Projects     

Samir El Ouaamari  Hubert Cochet 《社会与自然资源》2014,27(2):200-214

This article examines the role of coffee in the agriculture of southwest Ethiopian highlands, a context characterized by recent huge private coffee estate developments, coffee certification projects and smallholdings. The analysis shows that smallholder farmers prioritize staple crops, and allocate land and labor to coffee only once food production objectives have been reached. It also underscores the diversity of the local peasantry, often treated as a homogeneous group in development projects designed to boost farmers' income through coffee production. Based on this analysis, the article evaluates the effects of recent coffee-oriented development policies: state forest concessions for coffee investment, and two coffee certification projects (UTZ-Certified and Fair-Trade/Organic). Because they omit the differentiated farmers' strategies, these certification initiatives fail to improve local populations' livelihoods and accelerate incipient socioeconomic inequalities. Moreover, when applied to big private plantations, they participate in farmers' dispossession from critical forest resources essential to households' food self-sufficiency.  相似文献   

Spatial patterns of subsistence extraction of forest products – An indirect approach for estimation of forest degradation in dry forest     

《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2014

Successful implementation of a forest based climate change mitigation mechanism such as REDD + depends on robust and available methods for measurement and estimation of forest degradation. Currently available methods are for application in single-hit degradation incidents in high density humid forests. However, it has been suggested that gradual degradation, especially in dry forests, is more widespread and that methods are needed for measuring and estimating associated emissions. We assess the applicability of an indirect remote sensing approach for monitoring forest degradation: infrastructure and other indicators of human activities are mapped and used for spatial prediction of degradation activities. For proxy variables we tested distance to forest edge, distance to roads, and population pressure calculated as the sum of inhabitants per pixel in the Landscan 2010 population raster dataset multiplied by an inverse power distance decay function. Wood extraction incidents were counted in 160 plots in two dry forests in Tanzania with infrastructural entry from one side only. We analyzed the spatial pattern of forest degradation as a function of the chosen proxy variables using zero inflated count models which allows for an excess of zero counts. A jack-knife bootstrap using 10,000 runs was applied to optimize the population distance decay function. We found that the impact of forest degradation is highest near high population concentration, above 1000 individuals. Furthermore, distance to nearest forest edge or road was a significant proxy for estimation of the number of wood extraction incidents (p < 0.001), where degradation incidents decreased with increasing distance to forest edge or road. At 3000 m from the forest edge towards the forest core the probability of wood extraction is 20% and dropping. The population distance decay function was found to have a steep decline indicating a relative small impact on forest degradation. Further, and perhaps larger, studies are needed to be able to recommend a distance decay function for general application in Tanzania. However, the results are useful for understanding spatial patterns of wood harvesting as a function of distance to nearest forest edge or road in dry Miombo woodland areas with average population pressure at 1685 ± 101 persons within a radius of 4000 m from the wood extraction sites.  相似文献   

Use of the Stinkbug,Encosternum delegorguei (Hemiptera,Tessaratomidae), for Food and Income in South Africa     

Cathy M. Dzerefos  Ed T. F. Witkowski  Rob Toms 《社会与自然资源》2014,27(8):882-897

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A Forest Commons Revival in Slovenia     

Nevenka Bogataj 《社会与自然资源》2014,27(8):867-881

Forest commons in Slovenia are a poorly known indigenous institution for common resource management. They are a functional entity linked to a specific community that establishes interpersonal and intergenerational ties, as well as a link to the resource. We refer to shared ownership of resource, once made of pastures; today forests prevail. Collective property management remained despite community changes and legislation development. Today registered forest commons represent approximately one-third of those that existed before 1945. We highlight seven developmental turns to explain their revival. Six indicators are used in the analysis of current conditions. Forest commons are a potentially effective response to forest management challenges in Slovenia but also a potential model of social cohesion, rational resource use, and a balance between forest use and conservation. However, they are plagued by state ignorance, which hinders statistically sound analyses.  相似文献   

Fighting Fire with Fire: Does a Policy of Broad-Scale Prescribed Burning Improve Community Safety?     

Danielle Clode  Mark A. Elgar 《社会与自然资源》2014,27(11):1192-1199

Wildfires cause enormous damage worldwide, particularly in Victoria, Australia, with growing populations in fire-prone ecosystems. Broad-scale prescribed burning is an established, yet controversial, wildfire management policy in Victoria and Australia. But does broad-scale prescribed burning reduce fire damage? The answer depends on how damage is measured. We propose that different perceptions about the efficacy of broad-scale prescribed burning derive from different disciplinary measures of damage (e.g., biodiversity, area burned, or fatalities). Although broad-scale prescribed burning reduces subsequent wildfire size, there is little evidence that it saves human lives and homes. Evidence suggests that small-scale fuel reduction may be more effective at saving lives. The prescribed burning debate might be better focused on what damage we wish to limit, and which measures are most effective at limiting this damage. In this context, the current policy focus on broad-scale prescribed burning targets may distract efforts from more effective lifesaving strategies.  相似文献   

东北地区历史时期森林空间格局网格化重建方法研究(英文)     

李士成  何凡能  张学珍 《地理学报(英文版)》2014,(6)

The spatially explicit reconstruction of historical land-cover datasets plays an important role in studying the climatic and ecological effects of land-use and land-cover change(LUCC). Using potential natural vegetation(PNV) and satellite-based land use data, we determined the possible maximum distribution extent of forest cover in the absence of human disturbance. Subsequently, topography and climate factors were selected to assess the suitability of land for cultivation. Finally, a historical forest area allocation model was devised on the basis of the suitability of land for cultivation. As a case study, we used the historical forest area allocation model to reconstruct forest cover for 1780 and 1940 in Northeast China with a 10-km resolution. To validate the model, we compared satellite-based forest cover data with our reconstruction for 2000. A one-sample t-test of absolute bias showed that the two-tailed significance was 0.12, larger than the significant level 0.05, suggesting that the model has strong ability to capture the spatial distribution of forests. In addition, we calculated the relative difference of our reconstruction at the county scale for 1780 in Northeast China. The number of counties whose relative difference ranged from-30% to 30% is 99, accounting for 74.44% of all counties. These findings demonstrated that the provincial forest area could be transformed into forest cover maps well using the model.  相似文献   

荒漠河岸胡杨(Populus euphratica)树干液流的时滞效应   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

赵春彦  司建华  冯起  常宗强  鱼腾飞  李炜 《中国沙漠》2014,34(5):1254-1260

以2012年4—9月树干液流速率与环境因子的实测数据,分析了荒漠河岸胡杨(Populus euphratica)树干液流的时滞效应。结果表明:不同月份胡杨树干液流速率对不同环境因子的时滞不同;4—9月,胡杨树干液流速率峰值时间比太阳辐射峰值时间晚约1h,比空气温度峰值时间早约1h,比水汽压差峰值时间早约2h,比空气相对湿度谷值时间早约2h;对影响胡杨树干液流速率的环境因子进行了主成分分析,发现胡杨树干液流速率与1h以前的第1主成分、第2主成分相关性最高,相关系数分别为0.864、0.875;对错位前后胡杨树干液流速率与环境因子进行多元线性回归分析发现,在胡杨树干液流的数值模拟中,考虑液流相对于环境因子的时滞效应可以提高模型的拟合精度。  相似文献   

A bottom-up approach to segment individual deciduous trees using leaf-off lidar point cloud data     

《ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing》2014

Light Detection and Ranging (Lidar) can generate three-dimensional (3D) point cloud which can be used to characterize horizontal and vertical forest structure, so it has become a popular tool for forest research. Recently, various methods based on top-down scheme have been developed to segment individual tree from lidar data. Some of these methods, such as the one developed by Li et al. (2012), can obtain the accuracy up to 90% when applied in coniferous forests. However, the accuracy will decrease when they are applied in deciduous forest because the interlacing tree branches can increase the difficulty to determine the tree top. In order to solve challenges of the tree segmentation in deciduous forests, we develop a new bottom-up method based on the intensity and 3D structure of leaf-off lidar point cloud data in this study. We applied our algorithm to segment trees in a forest at the Shavers Creek Watershed in Pennsylvania. Three indices were used to assess the accuracy of our method: recall, precision and F-score. The results show that the algorithm can detect 84% of the tree (recall), 97% of the segmented trees are correct (precision) and the overall F-score is 90%. The result implies that our method has good potential for segmenting individual trees in deciduous broadleaf forest.  相似文献