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121.
打水沟为宝兴河右岸的一级支流,位于宝兴县城城区,流域面积1.01 km2,主沟长度1.85 km,主沟比降640‰.受芦山“4·20”地震的影响,流域中下游直接引发了大量的崩滑体,加之地形陡峻,且位于青衣江-鹿头山暴雨区边缘,极容易发生泥石流.一旦发生泥石流,将会对沟口建筑和人员的安全造成巨大危害.通过对打水沟地震前后遥感影像的解译,结合野外考察,综合判定该沟为地震触发的潜在性泥石流沟.进一步分析估算,由于地震震动导致流域内发育6处崩塌体,总面积20375 m2,松散固体物质总量为15.20×l04m3.在分析泥石流形成条件与发展趋势的基础上,提出了打水沟泥石流减灾方案,并对泥石流排导槽梯形最佳过流横断面进行了设计.通过计算分析得到,在排泄设计标准的泥石流时,排导槽的最佳过流断面宽度为2.38 m,深度为2.23 m. 相似文献
122.
鄱阳湖流域抚河径流特征及变化趋势分析 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
抚河是鄱阳湖流域第二大河流,其径流变化研究对揭示鄱阳湖水文情势演变规律和鄱阳湖生态环境保护具有重要的科学意义。本文采用鄱阳湖流域抚河上、中、下游8个主要水文站的实测资料,分析了抚河径流年内分配特征及变化规律;应用Mann-Kendall非参数检验与回归分析等方法,研究了近几十年内抚河年、月径流变化规律及与降雨的关系。结果表明:(1)抚河径流年内分配不均,但不均匀性在流域内空间差异较小;(2)受水利工程调蓄影响,径流年内分配越来越均匀;(3)不同年代年径流特性存在差异,20世纪70年代至90年代初,径流相对稳定,90年代中期到2002年,呈较明显上升趋势,2002年后,表现为下降趋势;(4)月径流变化有增有减,基本规律为枯水期(11月~次年3月)月径流量基本呈上升趋势,洪水期(4~6月)月径流基本呈下降趋势;(5)抚河的年降水量在2002年附近发生突变减少,与年径流量突变时间基本吻合,说明气候变化降雨量减少对近10年鄱阳湖流域抚河入湖径流的减少影响显著。 相似文献
123.
首先对贵阳近500 a(1470—2008年)旱涝等级资料进行增补,利用该资料进行等级序列展开频次和多尺度分析。结果表明:近58 a,贵阳出现极端旱、偏旱的频次明显高于过去近500 a的平均状况;汛期出现偏旱和旱的次数明显增多,旱重于涝的趋势非常明显。从年代际和百年际尺度看,210 a周期是贵阳旱涝振荡的主周期,而50 a周期是次周期,且20世纪80年代的干旱程度高于历史上任何一个年代;从年际和年代际尺度上,24 a周期是贵阳旱涝振荡的主周期,而7 a周期是次周期;汛期降水偏少,一般与旱灾对应一致,但若降水偏多,对应汛期各月降水分布均匀,则不一定对应涝灾。最后,结合诊断结果,借助IPCC AR4最新的模式预估数据集,预估贵阳汛期降水在未来10 a左右将处于旱涝交替频发期,之后至21世纪40年代中期将处于少雨阶段,可能会出现较长时期的干旱。 相似文献
124.
Diagnostic analysis of the evolution mechanism for a vortex over the Tibetan Plateau in June 2008 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Based on the final analyses data (FNL) of the Global Forecasting System of the NCEP and the obser- vational radiosonde data, the evolution mechanism of an eastward-moving low-level vortex over the Tibetan Plateau in June 2008 was analyzed. The results show that the formation of the vortex was related to the convergence between the northwesterly over the central Tibetan Plateau from the westerly zone and the southerly from the Bay of Bengal at 500 hPa, and also to the divergence associated with the entrance re- gion of the upper westerly jet at 200 hPa. Their dynamic effects were favorable for ascending motion and forming the vortex over the Tibetan Plateau. Furthermore, the effect of the atmospheric heat source (Q1) is discussed based on a transformed potential vorticity (PV) tendency equation. By calculating the PV budgets, we showed that Q1 had a great inffuence on the intensity and moving direction of the vortex. In the developing stage of the vortex, the heating of the vertically integrated Q1 was centered to the east of the vortex center at 500 hPa, increasing PV tendency to the east of the vortex. As a result, the vortex strengthened and moved eastward through the vertically uneven distribution of Q1. In the decaying stage, the horizontally uneven heating of Q1 at 500 hPa weakened the vortex through causing the vortex tubes around the vortex to slant and redistributing the vertical vorticity field. 相似文献
125.
Based on the 1951–2007 thunderstorms in Jiangsu, a study is conducted for their climate trends, periodicity, spatiotemporal patterns, and the distributions of the first and last days of the thunderstorms at different guarantee rates (GRs) using climate tendency rate, wavelet analysis, and GR for diagnosis. Results suggest that the inter-annual number of thunderstorm days (TSDs) exhibits a decreasing trend in this province. The trend is displayed mainly in the decreasing TSD number in summer and autumn except in spring, when the variation is not significant in the study period. In this province, the TSD number declines by ~2 days per 10 years. On an inter-annual basis, the pronounced positive departures of the number take place chiefly in the early 1960s, the late 1960s to the early-mid-1970s, the late 1980s, and the late 1990s compared with the negative anomalies dominant in the late 1970s to the mid-1980s, the mid-to-late-1990s, and the late 1990s to 2007. There are vast differences in the initial and ending days at diverse GRs in different areas of the province. At 50% GR, the earliest (last) days occur from mid-March to early April (early to late September) while at 80% GR, the initial (last) days are from late March to early May (early to late October). For the distribution of periods, the periods >8–10 years are relatively stable for the entire province. Based on 1951–2007 period analysis, the region north (south) of the Huaihe River experiences TSDs less (more) than normal days in recent years. 相似文献
126.
通过Z指数法和降水资料对昌吉地区8个国家级气象观测站37a(1971—2007年)的旱涝变化趋势和时空分布特征研究,发现昌吉州各地降水和旱涝变化具有一致性.20世纪70年代以来,各地具有由偏旱转为偏涝的趋势,其中,西部地区的偏涝速度最快,东部地区的偏涝速度最慢.各地出现干旱的频率高于雨涝的频率,其中,西部出现干旱频率最大,东部最小;相反,西部出现雨涝的频率最小,东部最大. 相似文献
127.
128.
Alejandro Espinoza-Tenorio Ileana Espejel Matthias Wolff José Alberto Zepeda-Domínguez 《Marine Policy》2011
Sustainable fisheries take into consideration that managed fisheries ecosystems shift over time in response to evolving environmental as well as market and political factors. These contextual forces are especially valuable in understanding developing countries such as Mexico, where the unconsolidated fisheries administration faces productive marine ecosystems but unsustainable fisheries. To recognize the issues that have inhibited the consolidation of a regulatory system for sustainable fisheries, a contextual factor analysis was applied to the co-development of two current policies in the Mexican fishery regime: fisheries and environmental policies. Six historical phases have been identified in which there are few long periods of stability and frequent short periods of radical change that alternate between stable and adverse contextual situations. These short and contrasting contextual situations cause a kind of tug-of-war in Mexican fisheries policy-making. On the one hand, domestic economic, scientific, and technological forces seem to slowly lead toward the consolidation of sustainable fisheries; on the other hand, domestic policies drift from one position to another at other timing than the international fisheries and environmental policies. Although recent crises seem to highlight new periods of radical change in Mexico, they also provide an opportunity to adopt new structural plans to consolidate domestic forces as a basis for long-term strategies. 相似文献
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130.