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31.
Comparison of different land-surface perturbation methods in short-range ensemble forecasts
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Zhibo Gao Jiangshan Zhu Yan Guo Xiaodong Yan Xiujuan Wang Huoqing Li Shuwen Li 《大气和海洋科学快报》2021,14(3):60-65
为了比较不同陆面扰动方法对短时集合预报的影响,本研究设计了陆面模式扰动实验(LSMPE),初始土壤湿度扰动实验(ISMPE),陆面-大气耦合系数扰动实验(LCCPE)以及大气扰动对照实验(GEFSPE).结果表明,在三组陆面扰动实验中,LSMPE能代表最大的不确定性且误差最小;ISMPE的离散度要比LCCPE稍大,但是... 相似文献
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A probabilistic fog forecast system was designed based on two high resolution numerical 1-D models called COBEL and PAFOG.
The 1-D models are coupled to several 3-D numerical weather prediction models and thus are able to consider the effects of
advection. To deal with the large uncertainty inherent to fog forecasts, a whole ensemble of 1-D runs is computed using the
two different numerical models and a set of different initial conditions in combination with distinct boundary conditions.
Initial conditions are obtained from variational data assimilation, which optimally combines observations with a first guess
taken from operational 3-D models. The design of the ensemble scheme computes members that should fairly well represent the
uncertainty of the current meteorological regime. Verification for an entire fog season reveals the importance of advection
in complex terrain. The skill of 1-D fog forecasts is significantly improved if advection is considered. Thus the probabilistic
forecast system has the potential to support the forecaster and therefore to provide more accurate fog forecasts. 相似文献
34.
Mozheng Wei 《大气科学进展》1996,13(1):67-90
ALow-orderModelofTwo-dimensionalFluidDynamicsontheSurfaceofaSphereMozhengWei(CRCforSouthernHemisphereMeteorology,CSIRODivisio... 相似文献
35.
ABSTRACT The reliable and robust monitoring of air temperature distribution is essential for urban thermal environmental analysis. In this study, a stacking ensemble model consisting of multi-linear regression (MLR), support vector regression (SVR), and random forest (RF) optimized by the SVR is proposed to interpolate the daily maximum air temperature (Tmax) during summertime in a mega urban area. A total of 10 geographic variables, including the clear-sky averaged land surface temperature and the normalized difference vegetation index, were used as input variables. The stacking model was compared to Cokriging, three individual data-driven methods, and a simple average ensemble model, all through leave-one-station-out cross validation. The stacking model showed the best performance by improving the generalizability of the individual models and mitigating the sensitivity to the extreme daily Tmax. This study demonstrates that the stacking ensemble method can improve the accuracy of spatial interpolation of environmental variables in various research fields. 相似文献
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Application of ensemble kalman filter to geophysical parameters retrieval in remote sensing:A case study of kernel-driven BRDF model inversion 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
QIN Jun YAN Guangjian LIU Shaomin LIANG Shunlin ZHANG Hao WANG Jindi LI Xiaowen 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2006,49(6):632-640
Remote sensing can provide multi-spatial resolution, multi-temporal resolution multi-spectral band and multi-angular data for the observation of land surface. At present, one of research focuses is how to make the best of these data to retrieve geophysical parameters in conjunction with their a priori knowledge and simul-taneously consider the influence of data uncertainties on inversion results[1-5]. The essence of remote sensing lies in inversion. It is difficult to precisely retrieve parame… 相似文献
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中国冬季气温的集合典型相关分析和预报 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
以欧亚大陆地面温度、北半球500 hPa高度、热带印度洋SST(sea surface temperature)以及北太平洋SST为预报因子,通过典型相关分析(canonical correlation analysis,简称CCA)建立预报关系,然后用集合典型相关分析预报(ensemble canonical correlation prediction,简称ECC)方法预报中国冬季气温,并分析预报技巧及进行独立样本检验.结果表明,不同的预报因子对各个地区有不同的预报技巧,以欧亚大陆地面温度为预报因子预报技巧较高,而ECC模式对中国冬季气温有更好的预报能力,预报技巧高于任何一个单因子场的CCA预报;采用回归法的集合平均比简单的等权集合平均预报技巧更稳定. 相似文献
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利用T63L9全球谱模式和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料, 对BGM方法中增长模的繁殖长度对集合预报效果的影响进行研究。结果表明:与控制预报相比, 不同繁殖长度的集合预报都能使预报效果得到一定程度的改进, 特别是第4天预报以后, 改进程度随预报时效而稳步提高。三组不同繁殖长度的集合预报对控制预报的改进存在差别, 分析结果表明:繁殖长度为2 d的集合预报明显效果最差, 而繁殖3 d和4 d的集合预报差别并不明显。对集合Talagrand分布以及离散度的初步分析表明, 繁殖长度取为3 d似乎最为合理。 相似文献