Relative importance of climate,topography, and habitats for breeding wetland birds with different latitudinal distributions in the Czech Republic     

《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2013

Given species' vulnerability to climate change, land use change, and habitat loss, it is pertinent to examine how the distribution of a particular species is related to those factors. We assessed the use of climate, habitat, and topography data for modeling the distributions of 14 central European wetland birds, and compared the relative importance of these factors among bird groups with differing latitudinal distributions in Europe. We used the Third Atlas of Breeding Birds in the Czech Republic as a source of species distribution data. Variables were derived from Corine Land Cover, WorldClim, and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) data. Hierarchical partitioning and multiple logistic models identified climatic, topographical, and habitat predictors as important determinants of distribution for each of the species under study. However, the relative contributions of particular variables differed among the species. Climatic, topographical, and habitat factor groups also differed in their importance to latitudinal species groups. Our results indicated that wetland birds with range margins close to the Czech Republic were potentially limited by two different factors: climate conditions impact the southerly distributed species and the availability of suitable habitat affects the northerly distributed species. The accuracy of the study models varied from fair to high (the area under curve values was 0.60–0.89) and revealed negative correlations with the relative occurrence area. In this study, we propose that any difference in model performance is more attributable to data characteristics than to a species' geographical characteristics.  相似文献   

Predictive fire occurrence modelling to improve burned area estimation at a regional scale: A case study in East Caprivi,Namibia     

Mika Siljander 《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2009

Fires threaten human lives, property and natural resources in Southern African savannas. Due to warming climate, fire occurrence may increase and fires become more intense. It is crucial, therefore, to understand the complexity of spatiotemporal and probabilistic characteristics of fires. This study scrutinizes spatiotemporal characteristics of fires and the role played by abiotic, biotic and anthropogenic factors for fire probability modelling in a semiarid Southern African savanna environment. The MODIS fire products: fire hot spots (MOD14A2 and MYD14A2) and burned area product MODIS (MCD45A1), and GIS derived data were used in analysis. Fire hot spots occurrence was first analysed, and spatial autocorrelation for fires investigated, using Moran's I correlograms. Fire probability models were created using generalized linear models (GLMs). Separate models were produced for abiotic, biotic, anthropogenic and combined factors and an autocovariate variable was tested for model improvement. The hierarchical partitioning method was used to determine independent effects of explanatory variables. The discriminating ability of models was evaluated using area under the curve (AUC) from the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plot. The results showed that 19.2–24.4% of East Caprivi burned when detected using MODIS hot spots fire data and these fires were strongly spatially autocorrelated. Therefore, the autocovariate variable significantly improved fire probability models when added to them. For autologistic models, i.e. models accounting for spatial autocorrelation, discrimination was good to excellent (AUC 0.858–0.942). For models not counting spatial autocorrelation, prediction success was poor to moderate (AUC 0.542–0.745). The results of this study clearly showed that spatial autocorrelation has to be taken in to account in the fire probability model building process when using remotely sensed and GIS derived data. This study also showed that fire probability models accounting for spatial autocorrelation proved to be superior in regional scale burned area estimation when compared with MODIS burned area product (MCD45A1).  相似文献   

基于共生理论的临京临沪地区跨界融合发展对比研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

王绍博  罗小龙  唐蜜  刘峻峰 《地理科学》2019,39(11):1681-1690

基于共生理论,以临京、临沪地区为例,利用Logistic共生函数对北京、上海与其周边城市共生关系进行识别,然后从共生环境、共生界面发展的空间分异特征探讨区域共生关系的形成机制。结果发现：① 与北京相比,上海与周边城市协调发展度更高,两大都市与周边城市均呈现互惠共生和寄生2种共生关系。② 行政等级管理体制的不对等是制约临京、临沪地区跨界融合发展的制度障碍,自上而下和自下而上的区域协调发展机制是两区域共生关系不同的重要原因。③ 临京、临沪共生界面要素联系格局均呈现明显的“交通廊道”特征。与其它周边城市相比,交通廊道重要节点或沿线城市与北京或上海的要素流联系更强,协同共生程度更高。  相似文献   

Characterizing spring phenology of temperate broadleaf forests using Landsat and Sentinel-2 time series     

《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2020

Vegetation phenology has a great impact on land-atmosphere interactions like carbon cycling, albedo, and water and energy exchanges. To understand and predict these critical land-atmosphere feedbacks, it is crucial to measure and quantify phenological responses to climate variability, and ultimately climate change. Coarse-resolution sensors such as MODIS and AVHRR have been useful to study vegetation phenology from regional to global scales. These sensors are, however, not capable of discerning phenological variation at moderate spatial scales. By offering increased observation density and higher spatial resolution, the combination of Landsat and Sentinel-2 time series might provide the opportunity to overcome this limitation.In this study, we analyzed the potential of combined Sentinel-2 and Landsat time series for estimating start of season (SOS) of broadleaf forests across Germany for the year 2018. We tested two common statistical modeling approaches (logistic and generalized additive models using thin plate splines) and the two most commonly used vegetation indices, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI).We found strong agreement between SOS estimates from logistic and spline models (r_EVI = 0.86; r_NDVI = 0.65), whereas agreement was higher for EVI than for NDVI (RMSD_EVI = 3.07, RMSD_NDVI = 5.26 days). The choice of vegetation index thus had a higher impact on the results than the fitting method. The EVI-based SOS also showed higher correlation with ground observations compared to NDVI (r_EVI = 0.51, r_NDVI = 0.42). Data density played an important role in estimating land surface phenology. Models combining Sentinel-2A/B, with an average cloud-free observation frequency of 12 days, were largely consistent with the combined Landsat and Sentinel-2 models, suggesting that Sentinel-2A/B may be sufficient to capture SOS for most areas in Germany in 2018. However, in non-overlapping swath areas and mountain areas, observation frequency was significantly lower, underlining the need to combine Landsat and Sentinel-2 for consistent SOS estimates over large areas. Our study demonstrates that estimating SOS of temperate broadleaf forests at medium spatial resolution has become feasible with combined Landsat and Sentinel-2 time series.  相似文献   

Hybrid spatiotemporal simulation of future changes in open wetlands: A study of the Abitibi-Témiscamingue region,Québec,Canada     

《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2019

Among the most productive ecosystems around the world, wetlands support a wide range of biodiversity such as waterfowl, fish, amphibians, plants and many other species. They also provide ecosystem services that play important roles in relation to nutrient cycling, climate mitigation and adaptation, as well as food security. In this research, we examined and projected the spatiotemporal trends of change in open wetlands by coupling logistic regression, Markov chain methods and a multi-objective land allocation model into a hybrid geosimulation model. To study the changes in open wetlands we used multi-temporal land cover information interpreted from LANDSAT images (1985, 1995, and 2005). We predicted future spatial distributions of open wetlands in the administrative region of Abitibi-Témiscamingue, Quebec, Canada for 2015, 2025, 2035, 2045 and 2055. A comparison and assessment of the model’s outcomes were performed using map-comparison techniques as well as landscape metrics. Change analysis between 1985 and 2005 showed an increase of about 63% in open wetlands, while simulation results indicated that this tendency would persist into 2055 with a continuous augmentation of open wetlands in the region. The spatial distribution of predicted trends in open wetlands could provide support to local biodiversity assessments, management and conservation planning of the open wetlands in Quebec, Canada.  相似文献   

条件价值评估法在公众气象效益评估中的应用研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

王桂芝  李廉水  黄小蓉  夏平嵩  李洁 《气象》2011,37(10):1309-1313

条件价值评价法（CVM）是目前生态（环境）经济学中最重要的和应用最为广泛的公共所有物价值的一种评估方法,对自然资源价值进行量化评估方面具有独特的优势,通过问卷调查反映环境影响下的价值问题,是一种理论化极强的评价方法。现将该方法应用到公共气象服务效益评估建模中,在考虑CVM不确定性因素的前提下,对公众气象服务效益进行评估,构建公众气象服务效益评估二分Logistic模型,并与传统的自愿付费法进行比较。采用全国抽样问卷调查数据量化结果比较表明,用二分Logistic模型对全国公众气象服务效益进行定量评估会更客观。  相似文献   

Integration of logistic regression,Markov chain and cellular automata models to simulate urban expansion     

《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2013

This research analyses the suburban expansion in the metropolitan area of Tehran, Iran. A hybrid model consisting of logistic regression model, Markov chain (MC), and cellular automata (CA) was designed to improve the performance of the standard logistic regression model. Environmental and socio-economic variables dealing with urban sprawl were operationalised to create a probability surface of spatiotemporal states of built-up land use for the years 2006, 2016, and 2026. For validation, the model was evaluated by means of relative operating characteristic values for different sets of variables. The approach was calibrated for 2006 by cross comparing of actual and simulated land use maps. The achieved outcomes represent a match of 89% between simulated and actual maps of 2006, which was satisfactory to approve the calibration process. Thereafter, the calibrated hybrid approach was implemented for forthcoming years. Finally, future land use maps for 2016 and 2026 were predicted by means of this hybrid approach. The simulated maps illustrate a new wave of suburban development in the vicinity of Tehran at the western border of the metropolis during the next decades.  相似文献   

Global geographical databases for modelling trace gas fluxes     

Elaine Matthews 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(2):125-142

Abstract

The design and development of global digital databases and their integrated use in studies of terrestrial sources and sinks of trace gases are discussed. Generic design characteristics that expand the utility of these databases are outlined including: hierarchical classification systems that provide for encoding and accessing data at several levels of detail, and fine spatial and thematic resolution which accommodate adaptations to a broad base of applications. The discussion follows the sequence of (1) developing primary databases on major surface characteristics, (2) selectively integrating combinations of data bases to produce secondary data sets of source categories, and (3) combining information on source categories with fluxes to produce tertiary data sets of emissions. These procedures are demonstrated with the example of estimating and evaluating alternative global methane emissions from natural wetlands.  相似文献   

Spatiotemporal analysis of rural–urban land conversion     

Bo Huang  Li Zhang  Bo Wu 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(3):379-398

Understanding the complexity of urban expansion requires an analysis of the factors influencing the spatial and temporal processes of rural–urban land conversion. This study aims at building a statistical land conversion model to assist in understanding land use change patterns. Specifically, GIS coupled with a logistic regression model and exponential smoothing techniques is used for exploring the effects of various factors on land use change. These factors include population density, slope, proximity to roads, and surrounding land use, and their influence on land use change is studied for generating a predictive model. Methods to reduce spatial autocorrelation in a logistic regression framework are also discussed. Primarily, an optimal sampling scheme that can eliminate spatial autocorrelation while maintaining adequate samples to allow the model to achieve the comparable accuracy as the spatial autoregressive model is developed. Since many of the previous studies on modeling the spatial complexity of urban growth ignored temporal complexity, a modified exponential smoothing technique is employed to produce a smoothed model from a series of bi‐temporal models obtained from different time periods. The proposed model is validated using the multi‐temporal land use data in New Castle County, DE, USA. It is demonstrated that our approach provides an effective option for multi‐temporal land use change modeling and the modeling results help interpret the land use change patterns.  相似文献   

江汉平原乡村农户就业变迁及其影响因素研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

郭新伟  余斌  卓蓉蓉  曾菊新  颜梅艳 《地理科学进展》2020,39(12):2094-2104

当代乡村就业变迁是透视乡村人地关系变化的重要视角。论文基于湖北省京山市乡村常住农户抽样调查和实地访谈数据,沿循类型—空间—模式的逻辑主线,通过变化率指数、就业转移矩阵揭示案例地区农户就业变迁特征;同时运用无序多分类Logistic回归模型进行影响因素分析。研究表明：① 2007—2017年乡村农户就业类型已由纯农就业主体演变为兼业就业主导,非农就业增加显著;② 农户就业区位距离衰减特征弱化,村域作为农户就业转移的出发源与回流汇地位突出;③ 村域纯农就业仍是乡村农户就业的主流模式,但就业方式多元化成为农户就业新趋势;④ 农户就业模式选择是农户就业需求、地方就业供给、环境就业媒介多因素综合作用的结果。研究结果能够为中国农区人地关系变化及乡村振兴战略实施提供科学信息。  相似文献