变化环境下中国东南沿海致灾气旋及其人口暴露度研究     

陈雪  苏布达  温姗姗  姜彤  王艳君  高梦竹 《海洋通报》2020,39(2):241-248

本文基于气象观测站的逐日气压、风速和降水量确定致灾气旋阈值,结合区域气候模式COSMO-CLM (CCLM)输出,研究中国东南沿海地区2021—2050年RCP2.6、4.5、8.5情景下致灾气旋的时空变化特征。并采用人口-发展-环境分析模型(PDE),预测共享社会经济路径SSP2下东南沿海地区人口发展趋势,揭示了致灾气旋人口暴露度演变。研究表明:(1) RCP2.6情景,东南沿海地区平均每年发生致灾气旋6.3次,风速和降水量较基准期(1986—2005年)分别增加9%和15%,72%区域致灾气旋人口暴露度有所增加。暴露在超基准期最大影响面积和最强风速下的致灾气旋人口分别增加2.1亿和0.1亿。(2) RCP4.5情景,致灾气旋年均发生7次,风速和降水量较基准期分别上升16%和32%,89%地区致灾气旋暴露人口增加。暴露在超基准期最大影响面积和最强风速下的致灾气旋人口分别增加2.6亿和0.5亿。(3) RCP8.5情景,致灾气旋年均发生5.8次,风速和降水量较基准期分别增加32%和50%,65%区域致灾气旋暴露人口度有所增加。暴露在超基准期最大影响面积和最强风速下的致灾气旋人口分别增加5.7亿和1.9亿。(4)相比RCP2.6,RCP8.5情景致灾气旋风速和降水量高出23%和35%,暴露于超基准期最大影响面积和最强风速的致灾气旋人口分别多3.6亿和1.8亿。控制温室气体浓度对降低致灾气旋的不利影响具有重要意义。  相似文献   

Changes of coral communities over 35 years: Integrating in situ and remote-sensing data on Saint-Leu Reef (la Réunion, Indian Ocean)     

J. Scoplitis  S. Andrfouët  S. Phinn  P. Chabanet  O. Naim  C. Tourrand  T. Done 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2009,84(3):342-352

Monitoring coral reef communities at a decadal scale is necessary to understand and project their dynamics to provide a basis for reef management in light of disturbances and climate change. Complementing infrequent and localised in situ observations, time-series of aerial photographs and remotely sensed satellite images provide a means of monitoring the position and extent of reef-top coral communities, vegetation and abiotic substrata at the whole reef scale. The aim of the present study was to map such changes on Saint-Leu Reef (La Réunion) between 1973 and 2007. The period included two cyclones (1989, 2002) and one severe bleaching event (2002). Vertical images of the reef were recorded in five aerial photographs (1973, 1978, 1989, 1997, and 2003) and two Quickbird satellite images (2002, 2006) during that time. Quantitative in situ observations of parts of the reef-top were also available both to document ecological and substratum characteristics that produce the color and texture observable in the photos and satellite images. Coral communities were mapped on all images using manual delineation of polygons identified according to color and texture contrast. The 2006 Quickbird image was used as the mapping base and 15 types of coral communities were identified from a reef survey conducted in 2007. This hierarchical typology used coral growth forms, live and dead coral cover, macro-algae, substratum (sand, rubble and platform) and, to a lesser extent, coral taxonomy. The polygons at date t were over-laid onto image t − 1 across the whole series and their boundaries were manually edited to match the pattern on the earlier image. Labelling of polygons was guided by field-survey data and maps. For coral-dominated patches, six successive pairs of maps from 1973 to 2006 were compared to produce ‘coral community change maps’ for that period. Despite the multiple disturbance events, the coral community distribution and composition in 2006 on Saint-Leu Reef did not display major differences compared to 1973. This suggests a high degree of coral resilience at the site, led by rapid recovery of compact branching corals. The mapping techniques overcame challenges due to different image quality and the sparsity of in situ observations in time and space. Our results demonstrate the potential for further application of reef monitoring protocols based on complementary in situ and remote-sensing data to help understand the dynamics of reef-top coral reef communities and geomorphology over years to decades.  相似文献   

遗传算法与神经网络相结合的热带气旋强度预报方法试验   总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6  

姚才  金龙  黄明策  黄小燕 《海洋学报》2007,29(4):11-19

以1960~2001年共41 a的7月和8月西行进入南海海域的热带气旋样本为基础,采用遗传算法与神经网络相结合的方法,进行了热带气旋强度预报模型的预报建模研究.并根据相同的热带气旋个例,将这种遗传-神经网络热带气旋强度预报模型与气候持续法热带气旋强度预报方法进行对比分析,试验预报结果表明,遗传-神经网络方法具有更好的预报能力.  相似文献   

Large-scale Vertical Momentum,Kinetic Energy and Moisture Fluxes in the Antarctic Sea-ice Region     

Ian?SimmondsEmail author  Anthony?Rafter  Timothy?Cowan  Andrew?B.?Watkins  Kevin?Keay 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2005,117(1):149-177

There are very strong thermal gradients between the Antarctic continent and the sea-ice zone, and between that zone and the ocean to the north. As a result of these contrasts the sea-ice domain is one of strong cyclogenesis and high cyclone frequency. In this study we explore many aspects of that cyclonic behaviour and investigate the manner in which these systems influence, and are influenced by, the sea ice. Using the NCEP-DOE re-analyses (1979–2002) we have determined variables that are proportional to the mean of the wind stress and the mean rate at which mechanical energy is imparted to the surface. Using two decompositions of the wind field we have obtained estimates of how much of these fluxes are contributed to by the transient eddies. We find these to be significant over the sea ice and the ocean to the north, particularly when a new decomposition is used. The presence of frequent and vigorous cyclones is a central factor that determines the positive mean freshwater flux over the sea-ice zone in all seasons. This transfer to the ocean is smallest in summer (0.49 mm day⁻¹) and assumes a maximum of 1.27 mm day⁻¹ in winter.  相似文献   

A FUZZY MATHEMATICS EVALUATION OF THE DISASTER BY TROPICAL CYCLONES     

梁必骐  樊琦  杨洁  王同美 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2000,6(1):94-99

In this paper, data from disaster reduction in China have been used to statistically analy ze the disaster by tropical cyclones that occurred from 1979 to 1996 within the area of Guangdong province. By the method of fuzzy subset theory, the conditions of the disaster have been discussed and the evaluation model of the disaster B set up. The index of the disaster of every tropical cyclone have been obtained and divided into five parts. The result shows that the index is almost proportional to the direct economic losses, so this model is reasonable.  相似文献   

影响中国及关键经济区热带气旋降水的气候趋势及极端性特征   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

巢清尘  巢纪平 《大气科学》2014,38(6):1029-1040

本文利用中国气象局上海台风研究所整编的《热带气旋年鉴》(1951~2010年)最佳路径资料,分析影响我国和关键经济区热带气旋(TC)降水量、降水强度以及不同等级降水TC频数的气候变化趋势,研究结果表明,影响全国的TC总降水量的年际变化幅度大,年际差异显著。长江三角洲、珠江三角洲地区影响TC过程雨量年极值自1970年代开始缓慢上升,表明近年来TC引起的极端性降水存在增加的可能。全国范围内自1970年代开始,过程雨量大于250 mm的TC频数也在增加,但长江三角洲、珠江三角洲地区发生极端性降水的TC频数并没有明显的增长。TC造成的24小时降水极值的气候变化趋势不明显,但是1980年代全国范围内的24小时降水极值存在跃变。长江三角洲、珠江三角洲地区日降水极值超过250 mm的TC频数自1980年代开始有缓慢增加趋势。全国范围、长江三角洲及珠江三角洲内TC小时降雨量年极值呈现振荡的周期变化,而在年代际上没有明显的变化趋势。  相似文献   

云浮高温天气及其环流形势统计与分析     

莫贤清  钟珑  谭成坤 《广东气象》2014,(3):30-36

为加深对云浮高温天气特征的认识,对云浮地区1981—2010年高温天气及其与副高、热带气旋之间关系进行统计分析。结果表明:云浮地区年高温天气大体呈增加趋势,测站局地环境不一致导致各测站高温天气年变化的并不一致。云浮地区高温天气主要出现在6—8月,7月最多,8月次之。云浮地区高温环流形势可分为4类:副高型、台风Ⅰ型、台风Ⅱ型和其它型。500 hPa位势高度(台风强度)与云浮地区台风I型(台风Ⅱ型)高温的关系不明显。500 hPa位势高度较高有利于台风Ⅱ型、副高型、其它型高温的发生发展。500 hPa位势高度大值中心位于测站以北(以西)有利于台风II型(其它型)高温发生发展,位于测站以东时副高型高温较多,位于测站东南则不利于高温天气发生发展。台风中心位于测站东北、东、东南三个方位,台风中心与测站距离600~1 600 km,台风强度在TS及以上时,有利于台风I型高温的发生发展。台风中心位于测站东方方位,台风中心与测站距离1 600~2 200 km,有利于台风Ⅱ型高温的发生发展。  相似文献   

A global climatology of extreme rainfall rates in the inner core of intense tropical cyclones     

Ian Chang  Mace L. Bentley  J. Marshall Shepherd 《自然地理学》2014,35(6):478-496

The localized rain rate maxima (R_M) of the inner core region of intense tropical cyclones (TCs) are investigated using Version 6 of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis data-set from 1998 to 2010. Specifically, this study examines the probabilities of R_M exceeding 25 mm h^?1 (P25) in intense TCs. The 25 mm h^?1 R_M is the 90th percentile of all R_M observations during the study period. The descending order of P25 observed from intense TCs for the six major ocean basins is: the North Indian Ocean, the Atlantic Ocean, the Northwest Pacific Ocean, the South Pacific Ocean, the South Indian Ocean, and the East-central Pacific Ocean. The six major basins have been subdivided into 29 sub-basins to discern regional variability of R_M. P25 increases with increasing TC category in all major basins, except for the South Pacific. Sub-basins with intense TCs that produce extreme rainfall rate maxima include the Bay of Bengal, the South Philippine Sea, the East China Sea, the north coast of Australia, southeast Melanesia, and the Northwest Atlantic. Sub-basins with a higher proportion of category 5 (CAT5) observations than category 3 (CAT3) observations tend to have a greater P25 beyond 60 km from the storm center.  相似文献   

登陆热带气旋降水增幅的合成诊断分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

董美莹  陈联寿  李英  郑沛群 《气象学报》2011,69(6):964-977

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,采用动态合成分析方法,对登陆后降水增幅类和非增幅类热带气旋的大尺度环流特征做了合成分析和动力诊断.结果表明:增幅类热带气旋处于强经向型环流之中,中高纬度为阻塞形势,高层有急流入口区南侧的强辐散,并与西风槽相互叠加;低层有急流和水汽通道的长时间联结;热带气旋东侧还有次级环流相伴.非增幅类热带气旋环流背景相对平直,高空辐散弱,无西风槽叠加;低空急流减弱迅速,且水汽通道较早出现断裂;无次级环流出现.增幅类热带气旋高层存在显著非地转运动,高层南风急流入口区的强次地转运动和降水增幅紧密相关.  相似文献   

影响我国的热带气旋年频数预测   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6       下载免费PDF全文

应明  万日金 《应用气象学报》2011,22(1):66-76

利用中国气象局《热带气旋年鉴》的热带气旋大风和降水资料集,确定了明显影响我国及华东和华南地区的热带气旋个例,并研制热带气旋年频数的预测方案,使得频数预测对防灾减灾更为实用。预测因子采用相关普查的方法,从1961—2000年前期的海表温度、海平面气压及200,500 hPa和850 hPa位势高度和风场中选出,所用的资料为NOAA ER SST和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料。在相关分析的基础上,构建因子时兼顾了因子的系统性的空间结构和时间的变化,并用主成分分析方法去除因子的多重共线性;在最优子集回归建模的基础上进一步对模型进行检验和优化。模型检验和2001—2008年回报试验说明各模型均对各自热带气旋频数 (TCF) 具有较好的预测能力。  相似文献