江苏省最大日降水量时空分布特征及其统计拟合   总被引：1，自引：2，他引：1  

肖卉  姜爱军  沈瑱  彭海燕 《气象科学》2006,26(2):177-182

本文根据江苏省内60个观测站1961~2000年的逐日降水资料,分析省域日最大降水的空间分布特征及年度变化,建立了省内日最大降水的概率分布模式,从而推算分析出现大降水的概率。研究结果表明皮尔逊Ⅲ型概率分布模式能够较好的拟合大暴雨的分布特征。  相似文献   

查表法设计华北地区最大震级时间序列模糊预测系统     

武安绪  林向东  张洪魁  徐平  鲁亚军  穆会泳  李菊珍  乔振瑛  丁晗 《东北地震研究》2006,22(1):11-17

本文介绍了查表法设计模糊系统(FSLE)的方法与原理,然后基于该方法建立了华北地区及主要地震带最大震级时间序列的预测模型,并进行了预测内符检验。分析认为,该方法的建模与预测精度较高,模型外推泛化能力较强,原理简单直观,计算结果稳健。因此,FSLE方法可作为地震趋势建模与预测分析工作中的一种有效工具。  相似文献   

深水浊积砂体的成因机理及特征   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

陈海洲  李瑞军 《上海国土资源》2007,4(3):10-13

深水浊积砂体及其体系域以其重要的理论意义和作为油气储集层的经济价值始终是沉积地质学研究的主要领域之一。深水浊积砂体是在深水环境下在重力作用下所形成的一个连续过程的组成部分。这个连续部分可以分为五类:泥石流、颗粒流、流体化沉积物流、浊流和滑塌。由浊流过程形成的深水环境下的浊积砂体,具有海相浊积体和湖相浊积体的特征,与海(湖)平面的下隆低水位有关。  相似文献   

Change of Gas Hydrate Reservoir and Its Effect on the Environment in Xisha Trough since the Last Glacial Maximum     

王淑红  颜文  宋海斌 《中国地质大学学报(英文版)》2007,18(1):39-48

In this article, Milkov and Sassen’s model is selected to calculate the thickness of the gas hydrate stable zone (GHSZ) and the amount of gas hydrate in the Xisha (西沙) Trough at present and at the last glacial maximum (LGM), respectively, and the effects of the changes in the bottom water temperature and the sea level on these were also discussed. The average thickness of the GHSZ in Xisha Trough is estimated to be 287 m and 299 m based on the relationship between the GHSZ thickness and the water depth established in this study at present and at LGM, respectively. Then, by assuming that the distributed area of gas hydrates is 8 000 km2 and that the gas hydrate saturation is 1.2% of the sediment volume, the amounts of gas hydrate are estimated to be ~2.76×1010 m3 and ~2.87×1010 m3, and the volumes of hydrate-bound gases are ~4.52×1012 m3 and ~4.71×1012 m3 at present and at LGM, re- spectively. The above results show that the thickness of GHSZ decreases with the bottom water tem- perature increase and increases with the sea level increase, wherein the effect of the former is larger than that of the latter, that the average thickness of GHSZ in Xisha Trough had been reduced by ~12 m, and that 1.9×1011 m3 of methane is released from approximately 1.1×109 m3 of gas hydrate since LGM. The released methane should have greatly affected the environment.  相似文献   

Analysis on the noises from continuously monitoring GPS sites     

黄立人  符养 《地震学报(英文版)》2007,20(2):206-211

In this paper,we analyze the time series of site coordinates of 27 continuously monitoring GPS sites covered bythe Crustal Movement Observation Network of China over the whole country.The data are obtained in the periodfrom the beginning of the observation to the November of 2005.On the basis of data processing,we analyze thepower spectrum density of coordinate component noise at each site and calculate the spectral indexes manifestingthe noise property of each component.The spectral indexes indicate that for most sites,the noise of time series ofeach coordinate component can be addressed by the model of white noise flicker noise;and for a small amountof sites,it can be described by the model of white noise flicker noise random walk noise.We also quantita-tively estimate each noise component in the model by using the criterion of maximum likelihood estimation.Theresult shows that the white noise in the time series of GPS site coordinates does not constitute the main part ofnoise.Therefore,the error estimation of site movement parameters is usually too small,or too optimistic if weconsider the white noise only.Correspondingly,if this factor is not fully considered in explaining these movementparameters,it might mislead the readers.  相似文献   

空间结构函数在北京地区气象观测站网设计中的应用   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：5       下载免费PDF全文

赵瑞霞李伟  王玉彬付强 《应用气象学报》2007,18(1):94-101

通过统计1978—2000年北京东南低地形区有关台站在春季、夏季、秋季、冬季的逐日平均气温和水汽压的结构函数, 分季节分析了该地区这两个二类气象要素的线段及平面内插精度和台站间距的对应关系, 并根据内插标准误差不超过观测标准误差的原则, 对上述两要素在北京东南低地形区的合理布站方案及间距进行了估算, 可以为2008年北京奥运会气象服务系统建设中气象台站布网建设提供一定的依据。结果表明, 正三角形排列方案为北京东南地区二类气象台站的最佳布站方案, 且布站精度应小于等于16 km。  相似文献   

武汉台形变观测与降雨参数之间的定量分析与研究          下载免费PDF全文

吕琳  杨艳芳  舒德亮 《地震工程学报》2020,42(1):136-142

基于“前兆台网(站)观测数据跟踪分析平台”,对武汉台形变观测资料进行了系统分析,提取出观测曲线受降雨干扰影响的事件,采用降雨总量、初始驱动降雨量和瞬时降雨量最大值等降雨参数对降雨干扰事件进行统计分析。结果表明:降雨总量达40 mm、初始驱动降雨量为0.3 mm或瞬时降雨量最大值达0.6 mm时,DSQ型水管倾斜仪易受降雨干扰;SSY型铟瓦棒伸缩仪当降雨总量超60 mm或瞬时降雨量最大值大于0.5 mm时易受降雨干扰;VS型垂直摆倾斜仪受降雨干扰与降雨总量、初始驱动降雨量和瞬时降雨量最大值无显著相关关系;降雨总量对形变仪器观测物理量的影响基本呈现线性;而形变仪器观测物理量与初始驱动降雨量、瞬时降雨量最大值无显著相关关系。认为武汉台形变观测受降雨影响主要来自降雨渗透影响和周边水体荷载变化影响两个方面。  相似文献   

Sequence stratigraphy of Holocene incised-valley fills and coastal evolution in the Gulf of Cádiz (southern Spain)     

Dabrio  Cristino J.  Zazo  Cari  Lario  Javier  Goy  José Luis  Sierro  Francisco J.  Borja  Francisco  González  José Ángel  Flores  José Abel 《Geologie en Mijnbouw》1998,77(3-4):263-281

This first sedimentary interpretation of two incised-valley fills in the Gulf of Cádiz (southern Spain), which accumulated during the last fourth-order eustatic cycle in response to fluvial incision, changes of sea level, and correlative deposition, relates the filling of the estuarine basins and their barriers with four regional progradation phases, H₁ to H₄. The cases studied are the wave-dominated Guadalete, and the mixed, tide and wave-dominated Odiel-Tinto estuaries. The sequence boundary is a type-1 surface produced during the lowstand of the Last Glacial period ca. 18 000 ¹⁴C yr BP. No fluvial lowstand deposits were found in the area. Due to rapid transgression the valley fills consist of transgressive and highstand sediments. The maximum landward advance of the estuarine barriers occurred ca. 6500–6000 ¹⁴C yr BP during the maximum of the Flandrian transgression, but there is no evidence of sea level rising appreciably above the present. A large part of the estuaries was filled during H₁ (ca. 6500–4400 ¹⁴C yr BP) but ravinement by shifting tidal inlets destroyed most of the coeval barriers. During the H₂ phase (ca. 4200–2550 ¹⁴C yr BP) sedimentation was favoured by arid conditions and concentrated in the axial estuarine zones and the barriers. Between H₂ and H₃ prevailing winds changed from W to WSW, increasing spit growth to the east and south-east. Progradation of bay-head deltas and flood-plains during H₃ (ca. 2300–800 ¹⁴C yr BP) and H₄ (500 yr ago to the present) further reduced the accommodation space in the largely-filled valleys, and sediment by-passed the estuaries and accumulated in the estuarine barriers as fast-growing spits. Arid conditions and increasing human activity have caused rapid coastal modifications.  相似文献   

A Coupled Riverine-Marine Fractionation Model for Dissolved Rare Earths and Yttrium     

Robert H. Byrne  Xuewu Liu 《Aquatic Geochemistry》1998,4(1):103-121

Fractionation of yttrium (Y) and the rare earth elements (REEs) begins in riverine systems and continues in estuaries and the ocean. Models of yttrium and rare earth (YREE) distributions in seawater must therefore consider the fractionation of these elements in both marine and riverine systems. In this work we develop a coupled riverine/marine fractionation model for dissolved rare earths and yttrium, and apply this model to calculations of marine YREE fractionation for a simple two-box (riverine/marine) geochemical system. Shale-normalized YREE concentrations in seawater can be expressed in terms of fractionation factors ( _ij ) appropriate to riverine environments ( ) and seawater ( ): where and are input-normalized total metal concentrations in seawater and is the ratio of total dissolved Y in riverwater before and after commencement of riverine metal scavenging processes. The fractionation factors ( _ij ) are calculated relative to the reference element, yttrium, and reflect a balance between solution and surface complexation of the rare earths and yttrium.  相似文献   

青海省最高、最低气温不对称性变化的诊断分析   总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6  

汪青春  王志俊  邵玉红 《气象》1998,24(4):41-45

利用青海省１３个站逐月最高、最低气温资料,分析了月、季、年平均最高、最低气温的变化。结果表明最高、最低气温存在明显不对称变化趋势,尤其是３、４月存在明显的反向变化趋势。同时分析了西宁城市效应对最高、最低气温的影响。  相似文献