Operation of two major reservoirs of Iran under IPCC scenarios during the XXI century          下载免费PDF全文

Habib Akbari‐Alashti  Andrea Soncini  Yagob Dinpashoh  Ahmad Fakheri‐Fard  Siamak Talatahari  Daniele Bocchiola 《水文研究》2018,32(21):3254-3271

We assess the effects of prospective climate change until 2100 on water management of two major reservoirs of Iran, namely, Dez (3.34 × 10⁹ m³) and Alavian (6 × 10⁷ m³). We tune the Poly‐Hydro model suited for simulation of hydrological cycle in high altitude snow‐fed catchments. We assess optimal operation rules (ORs) for the reservoirs using three algorithms under dynamic and static operation and linear and non‐linear decision rules during control run (1990–2010 for Dez and 2000–2010 for Alavian). We use projected climate scenarios (plus statistical downscaling) from three general circulation models, EC‐Earth, CCSM4, and ECHAM6, and three emission scenarios, or representative concentration pathways (RCPs), RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, for a grand total of nine scenarios, to mimic evolution of the hydrological cycle under future climate until 2100. We subsequently test the ORs under the future hydrological scenarios (at half century and end of century) and the need for reoptimization. Poly‐Hydro model when benchmarked against historical data well mimics the hydrological budget of both catchments, including the main processes of evapotranspiration and streamflows. Teaching–learning‐based optimization delivers the best performance in both reservoirs according to objective scores and is used for future operation. Our projections in Dez catchment depict decreased precipitation along the XXI century, with ?1% on average (of the nine scenarios) at half century and ?6% at the end of century, with changes in streamflows on average ?7% yearly and ?13% yearly, respectively. In Alavian, precipitation would decrease by ?10% on average at half century and ?13% at the end of century, with streamflows ?14% yearly and ?18% yearly, respectively. Under the projected future hydrology, reservoirs' operation would provide lower performance (i.e., larger lack of water) than now, especially for Alavian dam. Our results provide evidence of potentially decreasing water availability and less effective water management in water stressed areas like Northern Iran here during this century.  相似文献   

陕西地区小微震震源机制研究   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

惠少兴  严川  王平  金昭娣 《地震工程学报》2018,40(2):288-293

小微震事件的震源机制是区域应力场及诸多地球动力学研究的基础资料。陕西地区为多个地震带的交汇区,近些年积累了丰富的小微震波形资料。运用新近发展的适用于求解小微震震源机制的广义极性振幅技术(GPAT),结合陕西2015地壳速度模型,求解陕西测震台网2011年4月至2015年12月间记录的121次ML1.5~3.5事件的震源机制。反演结果表明:(1)以上事件的震源机制大部分为走滑及正断类型,其比例占64.5%;逆断型机制占22.3%。(2)反演震源机制得到的震源深度与定位深度具有良好的一致性;矩震级与近震震级间存在差别,且这种差别随事件的变小而增大。(3)对比渭河断陷带相关研究成果,验证了该区域震源机制以正断型为主,具有拉张应力状态。  相似文献   

M-估计法广义变分同化FY-3B/IRAS通道亮温     

王根  唐飞  刘晓蓓  邱康俊  温华洋 《遥感学报》2017,21(1):52-61

采用FY-3B/IRAS亮温资料进行广义变分同化研究。广义变分同化结合了经典变分同化和稳健M-估计两者的优点。区别于经典变分同化依赖于先前的质量控制并要求误差服从高斯分布,把M-估计法耦合到经典变分同化框架中,得到广义变分同化,其弱化了同化前的质量控制和误差服从高斯分布这两个条件。目标能量泛函包含M-估计以保证对离群值具有稳健性,从而能够得到较好的同化结果。对比变分同化前后的FNL资料湿度与GDAS湿度相关系数作为同化结果检验评价。具体操作过程在FNL作为背景场的基础上分别采用经典和M-估计不同的权重因子变分同化FY3B/IRAS资料,把得到的分析场与GDAS进行相关性比较,由于湿度具有较强的非高斯性,文中首先评估了安徽省13个站GPS/PWV和积分相关湿度廓线得到大气可降水量(即GDAS/PWV和FNL/PWV资料)的相关性,进一步基于信息熵自由度思想进行了近一个月IRAS 20个通道对分析场的影响贡献率诊断研究。  相似文献   

广义立体像对三维重建模型精度分析   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

王伟玺  宋伟东  刘艳春 《测绘科学》2010,35(4):31-33

本文依据基于多源遥感数据进行三维重建的思想,利用现有的对于某一区域,由不同传感器获取的高分辨率卫星影像,分别作为左右影像,建立起基于有理函数模型的严密空间前方交会数学模型,进而构建起广义立体像对,快速提取地面三维信息,实现目标物的三维重建。之后对重建的三维模型进行精度分析,并与利用传统双像立体像对重建的三维模型、以及单张影像重建的三维模型之间进行精度分析,比较三种不同方法所得到的三维模型的相对精度,并最终证明了利用广义立体像对进行地面目标的三维模型重建,其精度完全能满足生产要求。  相似文献   

天山南坡高冰川覆盖率的木扎提河流域水文过程对气候变化的响应   总被引：5，自引：5，他引：0  

赵求东  赵传成  秦艳  苌亚平  王建 《冰川冻土》2020,42(4):1285-1298

木扎提河是天山南坡冰川面积覆盖率最大（48.2%）的河流, 流域径流过程对气候变化极为敏感, 为了合理管理和规划水资源, 确保水资源的可持续利用, 亟需定量评估气候变化对该流域水文过程的影响。以VIC-CAS分布式水文模型为计算平台, 利用实测的径流和两次冰川编目间的冰川面积变化数据开展了模型的多目标参数化校正和验证, 有效提高了模拟结果的“真实性”, 然后通过数值模拟结果结合观测数据定量解析了流域径流的组成、 变化特征及对气候变化的响应机理。结果表明： 木扎提河总径流集中在暖季（5 - 9月）, 占全年总径流量的77.9%, 冰川径流、 融雪径流和降雨径流分别占总径流量的66.6%、 26.4%和7.0%。1971 - 2010年木扎提河流域气温和降水呈显著增加趋势, 由于降水的增加, 降雨和融雪径流均呈增加趋势, 但冰川径流呈现明显减少趋势, 导致总径流呈现下降趋势。在RCP4.5情景下, 未来该流域气温呈现明显升高趋势, 降水表现为微弱下降趋势; 气候变暖后, 更多降水以降雨形式发生, 未来降雨径流将明显增加, 降雪和融雪径流已于20世纪90年代达到峰值, 随后明显减少; 冰川面积将持续萎缩, 冰川径流于21世纪10年代达到拐点, 随后明显减少, 导致河道总径流量也将明显减少。  相似文献   

Coherence algorithm with a high-resolution time–time transform and feature matrix for seismic data     

Fengyuan Sun  Jinghuai Gao  Bing Zhang  Naihao Liu 《Geophysical Prospecting》2020,68(4):1113-1125

Traditional coherence algorithms are often based on the assumption that seismic traces are stationary and Gaussian. However, seismic traces are actually non-stationary and non-Gaussian. A constant time window and the canonical correlation analysis in traditional coherence algorithms are not optimal for non-stationary seismic traces and cannot describe the similarity between adjacent seismic traces in detail. To overcome this problem, a new coherence algorithm using the high-resolution time–time transform and the feature matrix is designed. The high-resolution time–time transform used to replace the constant time window can produce a frequency-dependent time local series to analyse non-stationary seismic traces. The feature matrix, constructed by the frequency-dependent time local series and the related local gradients, defines a new correlation metric that enhances more details of the geological discontinuities in seismic images than does the canonical correlation analysis. Additionally, the Riemannian metric is introduced for related calculations because the feature matrices are not defined in a Euclidean space but rather in a manifold space. Application to field data illustrates that the proposed method reveals more details of structural and stratigraphic features.  相似文献   

禁渔初期鄱阳湖流域柘林水库鱼类资源时空分布格局及影响因子     

孟子豪  杨德国  胡飞飞  陈康  刘璐  向邈  李学梅 《湖泊科学》2023,35(6):2071-2081

为了解长江十年禁渔初期鄱阳湖流域柘林水库鱼类资源时空分布格局及其影响因子,于2020年9月(秋季)、12月(冬季)和2021年4月(春季)、7月(夏季),采用渔获物抽样和水声学探测相结合的方法对柘林水库鱼类群落和资源密度的时空动态进行调查,并利用广义可加模型(generalized additive model, GAM)识别了影响鱼类资源变化的关键因子。调查期间共采集鱼类5目12科36属54种,鲤形目鱼类占比最高为70.38%,鳙(Hypophthalmichthys nobilis)、(Hemiculter leucisculus)和黄尾鲴(Xenocypris davidi)为优势种。水声学探测结果表明,鱼类密度(ind./1000 m³)具有明显的时空异质性,春、夏季(10.42±17.57和16.34±11.89)显著高于秋、冬季(2.74±3.33和2.02±5.07),中游(3.18±4.76)则显著低于上、下游(11.20±15.66和5.37±9.33)。GAM模型对鱼类密度的总偏差解释率为84.6%,其中经纬度、季节、叶绿素a浓度和溶解氧对鱼类密度的影响效应显著,水深和总氮的影响不显著。鱼类主要分布在29.12°~29.30°N,115.05°~115.15°E区域,显著影响鱼类分布的溶解氧和叶绿素a浓度范围分别为9~12 mg/L和5~15 μg/L。柘林水库鱼类呈现小型化趋势,为维护生态系统稳定性和鱼类多样性,后续需加强对鱼类群落结构和时空分布格局影响的机制方面的相关研究。  相似文献   

CHARACTERISTICS OF TECTONIC STRESS FIELD OF THE XIAOWAN RESERVOIR BEFORE AND AFTER THE IMPOUNDMENT          下载免费PDF全文

HUANG Hao  FU Hong 《地震地质》2019,41(6):1413-1428

Using the seismic waveform data of Xiaowan seismic network and Yunnan seismic network, we determined the focal mechanisms of 36 earthquakes(M_L ≥ 3.0)from Jun. 2005 to Dec. 2008 and 51 earthquakes(M_L ≥ 2.5)from Jan. 2009 to Dec. 2015 by generalized polarity and amplitude technique. We inverted tectonic stress field of the Xiaowan reservoir before impounding, using the focal mechanisms of 36 earthquakes(M_L ≥ 3.0)from Jun. 2005 to Dec. 2008 and CAP solutions of 58 earthquakes(M_L ≥ 4.0)collected and the solutions in the Global Centroid Moment Tensor(GCMT)catalog; We inverted local stress field of the reservoir-triggered earthquake clustering area, using 51 earthquakes(M_L ≥ 2.5)from Jan. 2009 to Dec. 2015. Focal mechanisms statistics show that, the Weixi-Qiaohou Fault is the seismic fault. Focal mechanisms were strike-slip type in initial stage, but normal fault type in later stage. Focal depths statistics of 51 earthquakes(M_L ≥ 2.5)show that, the average value of focal depths in period Ⅰ, period Ⅱ and period Ⅲ are 8.2km, 7.3km and 7.8km respectively and the standard deviations are 4.3km, 3.5km and 6.0km respectively. The average value of focal depths is basically stable in different period, only the standard deviation is slightly different. Therefore, there is not positive connection between focal depth and deviation of focal mechanisms. What's more, there are 2 earthquakes(number 46 and number 47 in Fig.5 and Table 3)with almost the same magnitude, epicenter and focal depth, but they have different faulting types as normal and strike-slip. The focal mechanism of event No.46 is strike:302°, dip:40° and rake:-97° for plane Ⅰ, however, the focal mechanism of event No.47 is strike:292°, dip:82° and rake:140° for plane Ⅰ. Likewise, earthquake of number 3 and number 18 have similar characteristic. Therefore, the obvious focal mechanism difference of similar earthquake pair indicates the complexity of Weixi-Qiaohou Fault. Considering the quiet-active character of reservoir-triggered earthquakes, we discussed the change of local stress field in different period. The σ₁ of tectonic stress field was in the near-south direction, with a dip angle of 14° before the impoundment, however, the direction of σ₁ of local stress field changed continuously, with the dip angle getting larger after the impoundment. The direction of σ₁ of local stress field of reservoir-triggered earthquake clustering area is close to the strike of Weixi-Qiaohou Fault, and reservoir impoundment increased the shear stress in the fault, so the weakening of fault was beneficial to trigger earthquakes. Comprehensive analysis suggests that fluid permeation and pore pressure diffusion caused by the water impounding, and the weakening of fault caused by local stress field are the key factors to trigger earthquake in the Xiaowan reservoir.  相似文献   

Spatio-temporal distribution of Konosirus punctatus spawning and nursing ground in the South Yellow Sea     

Xiangyu Long  Rong Wan  Zengguang Li  Yiping Ren  Pengbo Song  Yongjun Tian  Binduo Xu  Ying Xue 《海洋学报(英文版)》2021,40(8):133-144

In recent years, Konosirus punctatus has accounted for a large portion in catch composition and become important economic species in the South Yellow Sea. However, the distribution of K. punctatus early life stages is still poorly understood. In this study, generalized additive models with Tweedie distribution were used to analyze the relationships between K. punctatus ichthyoplankton and environmental factors(longitude and latitude, sea surface temperature(SST), sea surface salinity(SSS) and depth), and predict distribution K. punctatus spawning ground and nursing ground, based on samplings collected in 6 months during 2014–2017. The results showed that K. punctatus' spawning ground were mainly distributed in central and north study area(from 33.0°N to 37.0°N).By comparison, the nursing ground shifted southward, which were approximately located along central and south coast of study area(from 31.7°N to 35.5°N). The optimal models identified that suitable SST, SSS and depth for eggs were 19–26°C, 25–30 and 9–23 m, respectively. The suitable SSS for larvae were 29–31. The K. punctatus spawning habit might have changed in the past decades, which was a response to increasing SST and fishing pressure. That needs to be proved in further study. The study provides references of conservation and exploitation for K. punctatus.  相似文献   

Generalized flux law,with an application     

V. P. Singh  M. Prasana 《水文研究》1999,13(1):73-87

A generalized flux law, which can specialize into power‐ and diffusive‐type flux laws, is proposed. When coupled with the continuity equation, a generalized flow equation is the result. The generalized equation specializes into several cases, one of which is the kinematic wave equation. By applying the generalized flow equation and its variants to flow routing in two rivers, the usefulness of the generalized flux law is evaluated. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献