Reliability of mooring lines and piles for a permanently manned vessel in a tropical cyclone environment     

《Applied Ocean Research》2019

The factors of safety for stationkeeping systems in current standards (ISO, API) are not derived or validated using reliability analyses. As the oil and gas exploration and production is breaking new boundaries, deploying new floating systems and moving into regions with harsher environments, it is of paramount importance to understand what level of reliability these new marine structures are achieving. This paper presents a reliability analysis of the mooring system of a Floating LNG (FLNG) vessel permanently moored and permanently manned offshore North West Australia in a tropical cyclone environment. The reliability analysis addresses both the mooring chain and the pile foundation. The analysis accounts for the long term characteristics of the environment, including the short term variability, in response to a given sea state and the variability and uncertainty in strength of the mooring chain and the pile. The stationkeeping system was analysed using detailed time domain simulations, capturing system non-linearities and low frequency oscillations as well as wave frequency responses and, thereby, reducing modelling uncertainties to a minimum.It is found that for the conditions modelled, neither the chain nor the pile meet a target reliability of 10⁻⁴/annum using the factors of safety commonly used in design following current ISO and API standards. New factors of safety are proposed to achieve this target reliability. For the pile design, one complicating factor is that current design standards do not explicitly define the exceedance probability that should be associated with the characteristic value of the undrained shear strength to be used in the design. It is demonstrated that the required factor of safety is crucially dependent on the definition of this characteristic value and on the level and the type of uncertainty in the soil strength profile. A recommendation is made regarding the definition of this characteristic value and the associated factor of safety. Furthermore, it is found that designing the mooring system to an environmental condition with a return period of 10,000 yr (as an Abnormal Limit State event), and setting the factor of safety to unity, meets the target reliability of 10⁻⁴/annum for the pile, if the characteristic undrained shear strength is a lower bound, defined in this paper by the 10th percentile value. For the chain however, this target reliability is not achieved.  相似文献   

围海造陆条件下排海高温浓盐水对渤海湾温盐场分布影响模拟及预测     

白玉川  温志超  徐海珏 《海洋学报》2019,41(3):62-75

自2000年以来围绕渤海湾的围海工程剧增,致使工程区附近潮流场发生变化,进而影响排海高温浓盐水的时空分布特征。本文通过建立2000年和2015年两种不同岸线、地形条件下的三维数学模型对渤海湾沿岸3个电厂高温浓盐水表层排海问题进行模拟,研究结果表明,渤海湾的潮流场和高温浓盐水输移扩散特征在近十几年发生了较大变化:工程后,渤海湾平均盐度增大0.203,平均温度升高了0.105℃,同时曹妃甸附近海域浓盐水输移扩散速度明显增加。增大排放口流量至12.7 m3/s,湾内最高温度为26.46℃,较2015年最高温度增加了2.72℃。本文模型可准确模拟及预测排海废水盐度、温度分布特征,为合理布置水电联产设备排放口的位置提供理论基础。  相似文献   

Application of probabilistic neural network to design breakwater armor blocks     

Dookie Kim  Dong Hyawn Kim  Seongkyu Chang 《Ocean Engineering》2008,35(3-4):294-300

This study presents a probabilistic neural network (PNN) technique for predicting the stability number of armor blocks of breakwaters. The PNN is prepared using the experimental data of Van der Meer. The predicted stability numbers of the PNN are compared with those of previous studies, i.e. by an empirical formula and a previous neural network model. The agreement index between the measured and predicted stability numbers by PNN are better than those by the previous studies. The PNN offers a way to interpret the network's structure in the form of a probability density function and it is easy to implement. Therefore, it can be an effective tool for designers of rubble mound breakwaters.  相似文献   

Econometric analysis to differentiate effects of various ship safety inspections   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Sabine Knapp  Philip Hans Franses   《Marine Policy》2008,32(4):653-662

This article provides a refined technique to measure and interpret variables associated with the quality of an inspection—be it port state control or vetting inspections towards the probability of a very serious, serious or less serious casualty. It concentrates on filtering out the effect of variables such as detention, the port state control regime that inspected the vessel, time in-between inspections, deficiencies found during an inspection and the effect of vetting inspections. The consensus amongst policy makers in the shipping industry is that data cannot be combined to target vessels. While this article does demonstrate that the decrease in the probability of casualty is stronger for the South American Region, the Indian Ocean Region and Australia versus North Europe, North America or the Caribbean, it also demonstrates that the data can be combined to target vessels for inspections. Since the time in-between inspections and detention is mostly not significant towards decreasing the probability of casualty, these results reflect the lack of coordination amongst port state control regimes and industry inspections. Due to this lack of coordination and trust, a ship might be inspected in several regimes during a relative short time period where the benefit of an inspection can be easily saturated. Our recommendation on direct policy implication is to promote the harmonization of inspection databases across port state control regimes, preferably with the coordination of the development of the Global Integrated Ship Information System (GISIS) of the International Maritime Organization (IMO), to review the policy of a release of a vessel from detention and to increase cooperation amongst regimes with respect to the follow up of the rectification of deficiencies.  相似文献   

Econometric analysis of the ship demolition market     

Sabine Knapp  Shashi N. Kumar  Anna Bobo Remijn   《Marine Policy》2008,32(6):1023-1036

The topic of ship recycling has obtained considerable attention during the last two decades for a variety of reasons with the likelihood of the adoption of a new international convention under the auspices of the International Maritime Organization (IMO). This study applies econometric modeling to a unique data set to provide insight into the dynamics of the ship recycling market. The data set contains information on 51,112 ships over 100 gt and includes 748,621 events over a period of 29 years. The analysis confirms a negative relationship of earnings and a positive relationship of scrap prices for all locations while Bangladesh seems to be more sensitive to changes in earnings than the other locations and more likely demolishes larger and older vessels. The results for flag and ownership vary across scrapping locations with Malta and Cyprus indicating potential importance from a registry perspective. The overall safety profile of a vessel seems to be less important towards the probability of a ship being scrapped. Possible implementation of the convention at EU level will mostly likely affect Turkey while non-ratification of one of the major flags will most likely affect China or Bangladesh.  相似文献   

胶州湾营养盐的现状和变化   总被引：28，自引：3，他引：28  

沈志良 《海洋科学》1997,21(1):60-64

报道了１９９１年５月至１９９４年２月１２个航次胶州湾ＮＯ３－Ｎ，ＮＯ２－Ｎ，ＮＨ４－Ｎ，ＰＯ４－Ｐ和ＳｉＯ３－Ｓｉ的时空分布基本特征，６０年代于至９０年代的变化表明，胶州湾营养盐的浓度和分布已发生显变化。尤其从６０年代至８０年代，３０年来，胶州湾中东部水城ＰＯ４－Ｐ，ＮＯ３－Ｎ和ＮＨ４－Ｎ浓度分别增加２．２，７．３和７．１倍，ＴＯＮ浓度也增加了３．５倍，ＴＩＮ／ＰＯ４－Ｐ从１０增加至２４．２；Ｔ  相似文献   

渤海的平均余环流   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

徐如彦  赵保仁  黄景洲  杨玉玲  雷方辉 《海洋科学》2006,30(11):47-52

利用72个渤海石油平台、站点测流资料,阐明了渤海的平均余环流特征,并用已有的数值计算结果阐明了其形成机制。观测表明在黄河三角洲近海存在一支北-东北向的流动,可抵达秦皇岛附近水域,数值计算表明该支流动主要是潮生的;在辽东湾北部存在一顺时针向的涡旋运动,在冬半年该涡旋是风生的;在渤海湾北部存在潮生的逆时针向的余环流。  相似文献   

金衢盆地第四纪红土沉积粒度组成特征   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：4  

朱丽东  叶玮  周尚哲  李风全  杨立辉  沈叶琴 《海洋地质与第四纪地质》2006,26(4):111-116

浙江金衢盆地第四纪红土分布广泛,是开展红土与全球变化研究的理想场所之一。汤溪红土沉积剖面的粒度组成研究表明:砂(>63μm)含量极少,平均1.58%,粉砂(4~63μm)和黏粒(<4μm)为众数粒组,其含量的平均值分别为48.51%和49.91%,频率曲线呈双峰式,推测红土母质具风成特性,沉积后经历了较强的风化成壤作用;均质红土与网纹红土具有相似的粒度分布特征,但网纹红土的分选更为复杂,底部有近源物质的混入;汤溪红土粒度的纵向变化旋回和纵向变化趋势,可能指示了中更新世以来南方气候的不稳定性和气候逐渐变干冷的趋势。  相似文献   

基于栅格叠合的沉积物底质图生成方法   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

杨康  张永战 《第四纪研究》2007,27(5):889-895

文章提出了一种基于GIS空间插值和栅格图叠合技术,分析生成沉积物底质图的方法,并以曹妃甸海区为例,以170个海底表层沉积物样的粒度分析结果为依据,应用本文设计的方法生成这一海区的底质分布图,并用预留的20个采样点进行了精度分析和检验,在此基础上比较了不同的空间插值方法对生成的底质图结果的影响.结果显示出这一方法成图速度快、自动化程度高,但也存在对原始数据精度要求高、插值方法带来误差等问题.在借鉴传统底质图生成方法的基础上,运用三维TIN模型对成图结果进行改进,最终形成一种结合地貌要素的栅格叠合的沉积物底质图生成方法.  相似文献   

探讨灾害规律的理论基础--极端气候事件概率   总被引：20，自引：0，他引：20  

丁裕国 《气象与减灾研究》2006,29(1):44-50

分析了国内外极端气候事件研究的现状,从经典极值分布理论、极值分布模式的参数估计、广义极值分布等方面,阐述了近年来国际上常用的理论及研究方法。为了更好地佐证进行极端气候事件发生概率研究的重要性,列举了作者在该领域的一些成功研究成果,并认为极端气候事件概率问题是探讨气象灾害规律的理论基础。  相似文献