南海东北部台风潮的数值后报及极值增水估计     

丁文兰  方国洪 《海洋湖沼通报》1991,(1):1-9

本研究对近40年来影响南海东北部陆架海区的28次台风引起的风暴潮进行了数值后报,其中8个过程的沿岸后报增水值与实测值进行了比较,表明后报值与实测值符合良好,90%以上的最大增水值偏差在30厘米以下。为了得出本海区多年一遇的台风增水极值,在后报台风路径密集处选择了9个不同水深点,对每点取出各次台风下的最大增水值,然后用Weibull分布进行拟合,得出了各点的极值分布。  相似文献   

基于模糊综合评判理论的过驳系统效率计算方法     

余建星  谭振东 《海洋技术学报》2003,22(4):40-43

如何计算整个系统的运转效率，特别是受不确定因素影响的系统(如过驳系统)，仍然是一个非常重要的研究课题。文章提出基于模糊综合评判方法的效率计算方法，是一种新的尝试，这种方法较好的避免了人的主观随意性，更符合实际情况，同时又可以弥补统计方法的不足。文章对某沿海地区的一过驳系统进行了效率计算，取得比较好的效果。  相似文献   

Casualties in dry bulk shipping (1963–1996)     

Stephen E. Roberts  Peter B. Marlow 《Marine Policy》2002,26(6)

In recent years, bulk carriers have been identified with high risks of catastrophic structural failure and foundering, and with heavy loss of human life. This study, based upon Lloyd's of London casualty records, identified four risk factors that had significant, independent effect upon the likelihood of a bulk carrier foundering. The risk of foundering increased with the age of the ship, and was related to the ship's flag of registration. Most importantly, however, increased risks were found for heavy cargoes of iron ore and scrap steel or iron, and for trading routes to the Far East and from Europe to North America. Additional safety measures, in particular regarding ship design and high-risk trades, may well be necessary to reduce the high casualty rates.  相似文献   

Review of resource analysis and related studies: Working group,Mathematical Geology,freie Universität Berlin     

M. Shulman  H. Burger  C. Kliem  W. Skala 《Natural Resources Research》1992,1(1):97-106

The working group Mathematical Geology of the Freie Universität Berlin was formed in 1971. We review quantitative methods used by the working group since 1983 to treat mineral exploration problems. The methods applied vary from elementary statistical analysis of multivariate exploration data to optimal strategies for selecting favorable targets, and from multiobjective decision-making for additional drill hole locations to expert systems in exploration.The methods applied are directly related to the level of information at each stage of the exploration process. Special emphasis was placed on the relationship between and evaluation of subjective and objective data. Case studies illustrating the various methods are presented for different kinds of mineral deposits and exploration environments.  相似文献   

基于GIS的县域土壤重金属生态风险评价   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

刘庆  王静  汪庆华  张建国  张衍毓 《测绘科学》2008,33(3):90-93

为研究经济快速发展区农田土壤中重金属的含量及污染状况,本文以浙江省慈溪市为研究对象,研究土壤中铜、汞、镉、铅、砷、铬、锌七种重金属含量特征,并采用潜在生态危害指数法对其进行评价,并绘制生态风险危害指数分级图。结果表明:土壤中除汞元素含量较高外,其他各元素含量仅稍高于当地土壤背景值。七种元素的单因子污染指数Cfi值均属于中等的污染参数,综合污染指数Cd上限值已处于高污染指数的范围,但平均值为属于中等污染水平。从潜在生态风险评价结果来看,七种元素的单项潜在生态风险参数Eri的值也只有汞达到了强生态危害,七种元素综合潜在生态危害指数RI刚刚达到中等生态危害水平,说明该区农田土壤尚处于较低的生态风险状态。生态危害指数插值结果表明,慈溪市重金属元素的高风险区分布在中南部人类活动较为活跃、城乡工业较发达的区域,在今后的土地利用中,应高度重视人类活动对土壤重金属污染的影响。  相似文献   

Tephra Discovered in High Resolution Peat Sediment and Its Indication to Climatic Event     

程胜高  毛绪美  王凤林  洪业汤  朱咏煊  安琪 《中国地质大学学报(英文版)》2008,19(2):174-183

Floating tephra was deposited together with ice core,snow layer,abyssal sediment,lake sediments,and other geological records.It is of great significance to interpret the impact on the climate change of volcanic eruptions from these geological records.It is the first time that volcanic glass was discovered from the peat of Jinchuan(金川)Maar,Jilin(吉林)Province,China.And it is in situ sediments from a near-source explosive eruption according to particle size analysis and identification results.The tephra were neither from Tianchi(天池)volcano eruptions,Changbai(长白)Mountain,nor from Jinlongdingzi(金龙顶子)volcano about 1 600 aBP eruption,but maybe from an unknown eruption of Longgang(龙岗)volcano group according to their geochemistry and distribution.Geochemical characters of the tephra are similar to those of Jingiongdingzi,which are poor in s.Jica,deficient in alkali,Na20 content is more than K20 content,and are similar to distribution patterns of REE and incompatible elements,which helps to speculate that they originated from the same mantle magma with rare condemnation,and from basaltic explosive eruption of Longgang volcano group.The tephra,from peat with age proved that the eruption possibly happened in 15 BC-26 AD,is one of Longgang volcano group eruption that was not recorded and is earlier than that of Jinglongdingzi about 1 600 aBP eruption.And the sedimentary time of tephra is during the period of low temperature alteration.which may be the influence of eruption toward the local climate according to the correlativity of eruption to local temperature curve of peat cellulose oxygen isotope.  相似文献   

Calculating Pollution Indices by Heavy Metals in Ecological Geochemistry Assessment and a Case Study in Parks of Beijing   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

龚庆杰  邓军  向运川  王庆飞  杨立强 《中国地质大学学报(英文版)》2008,19(3)

Pollution index is a powerful tool for ecological geochemistry assessment. The commonly used pollution indices by heavy metals in soils and sediments were classified as two types of single index and integrated index in an algorithm point of view. Four single indices of contamination factor (or concentration factor), ecological risk factor, enrichment factor, and index of geo-accumulation were illustrated, and the reference values for calculating single indices were distinguished into background levels and threshold pollution values. Eight integrated indices were divided into two groups. One group is suitable for the normal distribution single indices including the sum, average, weighted average,vector modulus, and Nemerow pollution indices, and the other for log-normal distribution including the product, root of product, and weighted power product pollution indices. Using background levels as reference values, five contamination classes were divided, and the terminologies are suggested for the single and integrated indices to unify the assessment results. Software of EGAPI was developed in a single document interface to calculate the four single and eight integrated indices by heavy metals to assess the quality of soil and sediment ecological geochemistry. Pollution indices by heavy metals of Cu,Pb, and Zn in soils in parks of Beijing were calculated using EGAPI software, and these five contamination classes and terminologies suggested in this study were evaluated and used. Results ofintegrated indices of Cu, Pb, and Zn in soils indicated that the soil qualities are unpolluted as a whole and varied from low polluted to unpolluted status from the center to the outskirts of Beijing City.  相似文献   

大洋碳循环与气候演变的热带驱动   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

翦知湣  金海燕 《地球科学进展》2008,23(3):221-227

20世纪气候演变研究的最大突破,在于地球轨道变化驱动冰期旋回的米兰柯维奇理论。然而近年来学术界对热带过程和大气CO2浓度变化的研究进展,暴露了传统的轨道驱动理论存在着对低纬区和碳循环在全球气候系统中作用估计不足的严重缺陷。国家重点基础研究发展计划项目"大洋碳循环与气候演变的热带驱动"拟以南海与西太平洋暖池的深海记录为依据,进行全球性对比和跨越地球圈层的探索,通过观测分析结果与数值模拟的结合、地质记录与现代过程的结合,检验和论证大洋碳储库长周期变化机制的假说,对于不同时间尺度上低纬过程如何通过碳循环在全球气候环境演变中的作用,实现理论上的突破。同时简要介绍了该项目的目的、科学意义、关键科学问题及预期目标等。  相似文献   

南海西部浮游有孔虫记录的MIS 3期表层海洋环境变化          下载免费PDF全文

杨文瑜  黄宝琦  肖洁  周力平 《第四纪研究》2008,28(3):437-446

对南海西部越南岸外上升流区17954-2站浮游有孔虫属种组合变化、浮游有孔虫氧同位素、AMS14C测年的分析以及浮游有孔虫表层海水温度、温跃层转换函数的研究结果表明:在MIS3期,南海西部表层海水温度大体呈现暖-冷-暖的变化趋势;温跃层深度由浅到深阶段性变化;短时间尺度上温度与温跃层发生幅度较大的快速变化。暖事件（IS）对应于浮游有孔虫暖水种、混合层属种含量的增加,冷水种、温跃层属种含量的减少以及冬夏SST的升高;冷事件则与之相反。表层海水生产力亦大致呈现3个阶段（61～51ka,51～42ka和42～32ka）的变化,在千年尺度的快速气候事件中,暖事件对应浮游有孔虫生产力属种含量降低,冷事件对应升高。此外,在MIS3内部分暖事件（IS6和IS11～13）表现出表层海水温度降低,温跃层深度变浅和表层海水生产力升高的状况,表明该区此时上升流的存在,其形成原因推测是由于东亚夏季风加强的结果。  相似文献   

末次盛冰期东亚气候的成因检测   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4       下载免费PDF全文

姜大膀  梁潇云 《第四纪研究》2008,28(3):491-501

在国际古气候模拟比较计划设置的标准试验方案下,首先利用中国科学院大气物理研究所的全球大气环流模式（IAP-AGCM）模拟了末次盛冰期东亚气候状况,然后通过4组数值敏感性试验逐一模拟了大气CO₂浓度、海洋表面温度（SST）和海冰、陆地冰盖和地形、东亚植被变化4项强迫因子的单独气候效应,进而对末次盛冰期东亚气候的成因进行了检测。结果表明,末次盛冰期除华南局部略有升温外,中国年均地表气温显著降低,降温幅度总体上向北增大,青藏高原处存在一个降温中心。其中,SST和海冰变化是华南局部略偏暖的主因,它同时导致了东亚其他区域地表气温的显著降低,特别是在东北亚地区;陆地冰盖和地形变化对于东亚地表气温的显著冷却作用主要体现在东亚的西北部;大气CO₂浓度降低会引起东亚地区0.2～0.9℃的普遍降温;相对而言,东亚植被的降温作用（0.5～1.0℃）主要显现在中国40°N以南的区域。与此同时,SST和海冰变化能引起中国东部年均降水一定程度的减少,而大气CO₂浓度、陆地冰盖和地形、东亚植被单独变化均不会显著影响东亚年均降水的分布状况,然而,上述四项因子的共同变化会通过协同作用引起中国东部年均降水的显著减少,西部地区降水则与现在差别不大。此外,末次盛冰期东亚夏季风的显著减弱源于SST和海冰变化,冬季风变化则可归因于SST和海冰、陆地冰盖和地形的变化。  相似文献