Prediction Test for the Two Extremely Strong Solar Storms in October 2003   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Yanqiong Xie  Fengsi Wei  Xueshang Feng  Dingkun Zhong 《Solar physics》2006,234(2):363-377

In late October and early November 2003, a series of space weather hazard events erupted in solar-terrestrial space. Aiming at two intense storm (shock) events on 28 and 29 October, this paper presents a Two-Step method, which combines synoptic analysis of space weather–`observing’ and quantitative prediction – ‘palpating’, and uses it to test predictions. In the first step, ‘observing’, on the basis of observations of the source surface magnetic field, interplanetary scintillation (IPS) and ACE spacecraft, we find that the propagation of the shock waves is asymmetric and northward relative to the normal direction of their solar sources due to the large-scale configuration of the coronal magnetic fields, and the Earth is located near the direction of the fastest speed and greatest energy of the shocks. Being two fast ejection shock events, the fast explosion of extremely high temperature and strong magnetic field, and background solar wind velocity as high as 600 and 1000 km s⁻¹, are also helpful to their rapid propagation. According to the synoptic analysis, the shock travel times can be estimated as 21 and 20 h, which are close to the observational results of 19.97 and 19.63 h, respectively. In the second step, ‘palpating’, we adopt a new membership function of the fast shock events for the ISF method. The predicted results here show that for the onset time of the geomagnetic disturbance, the relative errors between the observational and the predicted results are 1.8 and 6.7%, which are consistent with the estimated results of the first step; and for the magnetic disturbance magnitude, the relative errors between the observational and the predicted results are 4.1 and 3.1%, respectively. Furthermore, the comparison among the predicted results of our Two-Step method with those of five other prevailing methods shows that the Two-Step method is advantageous in predicting such strong shock event. It can predict not only shock arrival time, but also the magnitude of magnetic disturbance. The results of the present paper tell us that understanding the physical features of shock propagation thoroughly is of great importance in improving the prediction efficiency.  相似文献   

Microwave Type III Burst Group in the 1993 October 2 Flare     

Qijun Fu  Zhihai Qin  Yuying Liu  Guangli Huang 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1997,250(2):189-204

Microwave Type III bursts with positive frequency drifting rate were found by Stahli and Benz (1987) for first time. Type III events are especially interesting because they are well-known to be signatures of electron beams in coronal plasma, and they are effective means for diagnosting of source plasma. A microwave burst consisting of some microwave type III burst groups was registered at Beijing Astronomical Observatory with the 2545–2645–2840 MHz synchronous observing system. The distributions of frequency drifting rate, half power duration, and intensity for each impulse in the groups have been statistically analysed. From this analysis, some important parameters for the dynamic process in the flare are deduced and discussed.  相似文献   

DISTRIBUTION OF 2-D MAGNETIC SADDLE POINTS AND MORPHOLOGY OF FLARE KERNELS IN SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS     

Huaning  WANG 《Solar physics》1997,174(1-2):265-279

We extrapolated the 3-D fields above the photosphere, taking the observed photospheric magnetic fields in the active regions NOAA 6659 and 7321 as the boundary conditions of a linear force-free field model, and detected the singular points of the 2-D fields in a plane at the chromospheric level. These singular points can be described with the Poincaré index. Singular points with the index of +1 correspond to concentrations of magnetic flux, and those with the index of -1 to the saddle points in the plane. All of these singular points are connected by the lanes demarcating the 2-D magnetic cells in the plane. It has been confirmed that these saddle points are the intersections between separators and planes intersecting the 3-D fields. From comparisons between kernels of flares occurring in both regions and the saddle points, we found that there is a close morphological relationship between distributions of the saddle points and flare kernels. The main results are as follows: (a) The flare kernels tend to appear in areas with concentrating 2-D saddle points. (b) The morphology of the kernels is exactly confined by the lanes in the plane at chromospheric level. These facts seem favourable for the viewpoint that solar flares are closely related to magnetic separatrices and separators.  相似文献   

    

Li Chongyin 《大气科学进展》1993,10(1):41-53

In a simple semi-geostropic model on the equatorialβ-plane, the theoretical analysis on the 30-60 day oscillation in the tropical atmosphere is further discussed based on the wave-CISK mechanism. The convection heat-ing can excite the CISK-Kelvin wave and CISK-Rossby wave in the tropical atmosphere and they are all the low-frequency modes which drive the activities of 30-60 day oscillation in the tropics. The most favorable conditions to excite the CISK-Kelvin wave and CISK-Rossby wave are indicated: There is convection heating but not very strong in the atmosphere and there is weaker disturbance in the lower troposphere. The influences of vertical shearing of basic flow in the troposphere on the 30-60 day oscillation in the tropics are also discussed.  相似文献   

A Linear Dependence between the Magnitude and the Logarithm of the Length of the Time the Quasars OJ287 and 3C345 Stay below this Magnitude     

Jin He  G.Z. Xie 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1997,254(2):223-232

We have studied the optical historical light curves of two Active Galactic Nuclei (AGNs): OJ287 and 3C345. We find a linear dependence between the magnitude and the logarithm of the length of the time the objects stay below this magnitude. The relation may originate from a fractal structure of the light curve. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

The Magnetic Topological Structure and Energy of the 2B/X2 Flare in NOAA 8100     

Yihua Yan  Yang Liu  Maki Akioka  Fengsi Wei 《Solar physics》2001,201(2):337-355

In this paper, we reconstruct the finite energy force-free magnetic field of the active region NOAA 8100 on 4 November 1997 above the photosphere. In particular, the 3-D magnetic field structures before and after a 2B/X2 flare at 05:58 UT in this region are analyzed. The magnetic field lines were extrapolated in close coincidence with the Yohkoh soft X-ray (SXR) loops accordingly. It is found that the active region is composed of an emerging flux loop, a complex loop system with differential magnetic field shear, and large-scale, or open field lines. Similar magnetic connectivity has been obtained for both instants but apparent changes of the twisting situations of the calculated magnetic field lines can be observed that properly align with the corresponding SXR coronal loops. We conclude that this flare was triggered by the interaction of an emerging flux loop and a large loop system with differential magnetic field shear, as well as large-scale, or open field lines. The onset of the flare was at the common footpoints of several interacting magnetic loops and confined near the footpoints of the emerging flux loop. The sheared configuration remained even after the energetic flare, as demonstrated by calculated values of the twist for the loop system, which means that the active region was relaxed to a lower energy state but not completely to the minimum energy state (two days later another X-class flare occurred in this region).  相似文献   

An algorithm for detecting and estimating cycle slips in single-frequency GPS   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Jia Pei-zhang  Wu Lian-da 《Chinese Astronomy and Astrophysics》2001,25(4):1089-521

An algorithm for detecting outliers and cycle slips in single-frequency GPS using a 3rd order polynomial model of the Kalman filter and for estimating the ambiguity by using optimal wavelet is presented in this paper. It is applicable to the carrier phase measurement with sample rate of one per second. The results of calculation with the GPS data aboard satellite Topex on 1995 June 22 show that the algorithm is so efficient that it can accurately estimate the ambiguity even for signals interrupted by a few seconds.  相似文献   

Ion-cyclotron instability and electron acceleration in coronal loops     

Dingyi Li  Deyu Wand  Shihtung Tsai  Minjian Xu  Dingyi Mao 《Solar physics》1993,143(2):235-245

Quasi-electrostatic electron and ion-cyclotron instabilities are studied. The result indicates that the higher harmonic ion cyclotron instabilities (ICI) can be excited while the fast ions produced from reconnection are injected into a coronal loop. Part of the energetic ions can be dragged out of the magnetic mirror turning points and a negative plasma potential is generated. The plasma potential may directly accelerate the electrons up to the relativistic velocity within a short time. This acceleration is similar to the processes occurring in the magnetic mirror devices of controlled thermonuclear fusion. The spectrum and flux of accelerated electrons have also been obtained. Some observational results during the solar flare might be explained by this acceleration mechanism.  相似文献   

Modelling the April 15 spectrum of Supernova 1993 J     

Zhang Qing  Wang Li-fan  Hu Jing-yao  P. A. Mazzali  Wang Zhen-ru 《Chinese Astronomy and Astrophysics》1995,19(4):426-431

We present the modeling of the ultraviolet and optical spectra obtained simultaneously on 1993 April 15 with the HST and at Lick Observatory. A Monte Carlo code is employed in the modeling and a comparison is made between models reported by different groups. With an atmosphere similar to the Sun in chemical composition, the observed spectral lines are well reproduced by a power law density structure of index around 20 except the strong H and HeI λ5876 lines which have peculiar absorption profiles. The photospheric velocity is found to be 9500 km/s and the blackbody temperature of the spectrum is 7990 K. For H and HeI λ5876, we suggest a two-component density structure which has a smoother layer located immediately outside the steeply decreasing inner envelope. The power law indices are most probably 20 and 3, respectively, with the transition point at about 13 000 km/s. In addition, this outer smooth layer serves to flatten the far UV spectrum as observed.  相似文献   

Multiple bipolar structure of normal magnetic field at the magnetopause     

T Chen  Z.X LiuX.X Zhang 《Planetary and Space Science》2003,51(6):381-386

We describe how a local plasma structure can be changed by a transverse shear flow using numerical simulation to investigate the disturbance process near the magnetopause. The results show that magnetic field lines are bent by transverse shear flow disturbance near the current sheet region. There are multiple bipolar structures of the normal magnetic field in the numerical simulation. We term this new feature as K-point magnetic reconnection, realistic for discussing space observations.  相似文献