Risk identification and perception in the fisheries sector: Comparisons between the Faroes,Greece, Iceland and UK     

Diana Tingley  Jóhann Ásmundsson  Edward Borodzicz  Alexis Conides  Ben Drakeford  Ingi Rúnar Eðvarðsson  Dennis Holm  Kostas Kapiris  Sakari Kuikka  Bogi Mortensen 《Marine Policy》2010

This paper presents the findings of risk identification and risk perception research conducted in relation to the fisheries systems of four distinct and diverse European countries: Faroes, Iceland, Greece and the UK. Risk research traditionally attempts to quantify the potential threat or consequences from a range of risk events or hazards. This research, however, adopted a social sciences perspective and so assumed that a risk event or hazard can mean different things to different people and that these perceptions are also context and culturally dependent. Risk perceptions were examined and risk registers developed in each country for a range of stakeholder groups. A ‘mental modelling’ approach was adopted in a series of qualitative interviews. Findings were examined in terms of a wide range of psychological, social and cultural risk theories. Differences in risk perceptions were noted between stakeholder groups and countries and contextual influences were examined such as the widely differing fisheries management systems used in each country. This research provides one of the first attempts to systematically evaluate risks and perceptions across a range of fisheries-systems. The findings support social science theories which argue that risk is a subjective, as opposed to objective, concept and that this subjectivity will therefore affect our attempts to assess and manage those hazards we think we can potentially influence or control.  相似文献   

Reconstructing tsunami run-up from the characteristics of tsunami deposits on the Thai Andaman Coast     

Chanchai Srisutam  Jean-Frank Wagner 《Coastal Engineering》2010

Tsunamis can leave deposits on the land surface they inundate. The characteristics of tsunami deposits can be used to calculate tsunami run-up height and velocity. This paper presents a reconstruction of tsunami run-up from tsunami deposit characteristics in a simple mathematical model. The model is modified and applied to reconstruct tsunami run-ups at Ao Kheuy beach and Khuk Khak beach, Phangnga province, Thailand. The input parameters are grain-size and maximum run-up distance of the sediment. The reconstructed run-up heights are 4.16–4.91 m at Ao Kheuy beach and 5.43–9.46 m at Khuk Khak beach. The estimated run-up velocities (maximum velocity) at the still water level are 12.78–19.21 m/s. In the area located 70–140 m inland to the end of run-up inundation, estimated mean run-up velocities decrease from approximately 1.93 m/s to 0 m/s. Reasonably good agreements are found between reconstructed and observed run-up heights. The tsunami run-up height and velocity can be used for risk assessment and coastal development programs in the tsunami affected area. The results show that the area from 0 to 140 m inland was flooded by high velocity run-ups and those run-up energies were dissipated mainly in this area. The area should be designated as either an area where settlement is not permitted or an area where effective protection is provided, for example with flood barriers or forest.  相似文献   

Perceptions and responses to climate policy risks among California farmers     

Meredith T. Niles  Mark Lubell  Van R. Haden 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(6):1752-1760

This paper considers how farmers perceive and respond to climate change policy risks, and suggests that understanding these risk responses is as important as understanding responses to biophysical climate change impacts. Based on a survey of 162 farmers in California, we test three hypotheses regarding climate policy risk: (1) that perceived climate change risks will have a direct impact on farmer's responses to climate policy risks, (2) that previous climate change experiences will influence farmer's climate change perceptions and climate policy risk responses, and (3) that past experiences with environmental policies will more strongly affect a farmer's climate change beliefs, risks, and climate policy risk responses. Using a structural equation model we find support for all three hypotheses and furthermore show that farmers’ negative past policy experiences do not make them less likely to respond to climate policy risks through participation in a government incentive program. We discuss how future research and climate policies can be structured to garner greater agricultural participation. This work highlights that understanding climate policy risk responses and other social, economic and policy perspectives is a vital component of understanding climate change beliefs, risks and behaviors and should be more thoroughly considered in future work.  相似文献   

The role of social norms in climate adaptation: Mediating risk perception and flood insurance purchase     

Alex Y. Lo 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(5):1249-1257

Flood insurance plays an important role in climate adaptation by recovering insured losses in the event of catastrophic flooding. Voluntary adoption of flood insurance has been seen as a function of risk perception that is shaped by social norms. This paper attempts to clarify the relationship between these factors. It is based on a household survey conducted in the eastern cities of Australia and involving a total of 501 randomly selected residents. Results of a path analysis show that the likelihood of having flood insurance cover was associated with perceived social norms, but not perceived flood risk. In addition, perceived norms and risk were statistically related to each other. It is concluded that social norms played a mediating role between insuring decision and risk perception. Risk perception might influence the insuring decision indirectly through shaping perception of social norms. This implies that adaptive behaviour is not necessarily a function of risk perception, but an outcome of its impacts upon the ways in which the individuals situate themselves in their social circles or the society. There is a feedback process in which individual perceptions of risk manifest as both a cause and effect, shaping and being shaped by the socio-cultural context.  相似文献   

Preparing for the unprecedented — Towards quantitative oil risk assessment in the Arctic marine areas     

Maisa Nevalainen  Inari Helle  Jarno Vanhatalo 《Marine pollution bulletin》2017,114(1):90-101

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新疆天山山区干旱灾害综合风险评估与区划     

吴秀兰  张婧莉  余行杰  玛依拉&#  买买提艾力 《气象与环境学报》2022,38(4):161-167

以自然灾害风险四因子理论为基础,综合考虑研究区自然及社会经济情况,建立适合天山山区干旱灾害风险概念框架和指标体系,结合GIS技术进行了该地区干旱灾害风险评估与区划。结果表明：致灾因子危险性较高的区域是伊犁河谷及天山北坡一带,东疆地区和南疆西部危险性较低;承灾体脆弱性较高的区域为伊犁河谷和博州地区,吐鲁番、哈密及克州属于低脆弱区;孕灾环境敏感性较高地区主要分布在天山北坡的精河至吐鲁番一线、阿克苏地区西部、巴州北部等地,伊犁河谷、巴州北部、哈密市北部、南疆西部山区属低敏感区;防灾减灾能力整体表现为中东部高于西部区域;新疆天山山区干旱综合风险整体呈现出中部高、两端低的趋势,即中部的天山南北两侧干旱风险高于南疆西部和东疆地区。构建的评估模型总体反映了研究区旱灾综合风险水平,可为新疆天山草原灾害风险管理、应对气候变化、抗旱减灾行动提供参考。  相似文献   

黄河三角洲沿岸海浪风暴潮耦合作用漫堤风险评估研究   总被引：5，自引：3，他引：5  

尹宝树  徐艳青  任鲁川  杨德周  程明华 《海洋与湖沼》2006,37(5):457-463

海浪、风暴潮是重要的海洋灾害因子,过去人们主要对这些灾害因子本身进行研究,而对它们作用的承灾体研究甚少。实际上,只有它们作用的承灾体遭到破坏,才产生海洋灾害。本研究的目的就是要针对海浪风暴潮漫堤灾害,提出漫堤灾害的风险评估标准及风险评估方法和程式,为沿海防灾减灾提供科学依据。针对黄河三角洲示范区,根据漫堤程度,提出了漫堤灾害风险等级标准,并基于建立的海浪和风暴潮潮汐数值模式及长期预测结果,提出了风险评估方法和程式步骤。对黄河三角洲近岸海域主要堤段进行了多年一遇和典型台风过程漫堤灾害的风险评估。得到的结果是:该区沿岸海堤在风暴潮水位下一般都不能发生水位漫堤现象,只有加上波浪作用时,才会出现海水漫堤;当发生五十年一遇的风暴潮、浪时,多数的海堤的风暴潮、浪漫堤灾害风险在3—4级,即有效波高的浪已爬上或接近爬到堤顶;9216和9711号台风所产生的风暴潮、浪灾害约为150—200年一遇的情况。从实际情况看,本研究中提出的漫堤风险评估标准、评估方法是可行的,评估结果为有效防减海浪风暴潮漫堤灾害造成的损失提供了参考。  相似文献   

Risk-based decision-making for drilling waste discharges using a fuzzy synthetic evaluation technique   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Rehan Sadiq  Tahir Husain  Neil Bose 《Ocean Engineering》2004,31(16):1929-1953

Offshore petroleum drilling wastes contain toxic substances that are potentially harmful to the marine ecosystem. Despite environmentally benign characteristics, wastes associated with synthetic-based fluids still contain a certain amount of pollutants due to contamination with formation oil and the presence of trace heavy metals in barite, which may pose risk when discharged into the marine environment. A framework is presented here for a decision support system for the selection of the best drilling waste discharge option. Uncertainties in the quantification of risk, cost and technical feasibility are expressed by fuzzy numbers. An analytical hierarchy process with a technique called fuzzy synthetic evaluation is employed to determine the best management alternative (discharge scenario).  相似文献   

Casualties in dry bulk shipping (1963–1996)     

Stephen E. Roberts  Peter B. Marlow 《Marine Policy》2002,26(6)

In recent years, bulk carriers have been identified with high risks of catastrophic structural failure and foundering, and with heavy loss of human life. This study, based upon Lloyd's of London casualty records, identified four risk factors that had significant, independent effect upon the likelihood of a bulk carrier foundering. The risk of foundering increased with the age of the ship, and was related to the ship's flag of registration. Most importantly, however, increased risks were found for heavy cargoes of iron ore and scrap steel or iron, and for trading routes to the Far East and from Europe to North America. Additional safety measures, in particular regarding ship design and high-risk trades, may well be necessary to reduce the high casualty rates.  相似文献   

The Swedish Geotechnical Society’s methodology for risk management: a tool for engineers in their everyday work     

Johan Spross  Lars Olsson  Håkan Stille 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2018,12(3):183-189

The Swedish Geotechnical Society has adopted a general methodology for risk management in geotechnical engineering projects to reduce the costs related to negative outcomes of geotechnical risks. This technical note highlights the main features of the methodology and strives to inspire the international geotechnical community to apply sensible risk management methods. In the authors’ opinion, a successful geotechnical risk management needs to be structured, be tailored to the project, and permeate the engineers’ everyday work. Then, sufficient quality can be achieved in the project with larger probability.  相似文献