Experimental Seasonal Forecast of Monsoon 2005 Using T170L42 AGCM on PARAM Padma     

J. Venkata Ratnam  D. R. Sikka  Akshara Kaginalkar  Amit Kesarkar  N. Jyothi  Sudipta Banerjee 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2007,164(8-9):1641-1665

As a part of the Experimental Extended Range Monsoon Prediction Experiment, ensemble mode seasonal runs for the monsoon season of 2005 were made using the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), T170L42 AGCM. The seasonal runs were made using six initial atmospheric conditions based on the NCEP operational analysis and with forecast monthly sea-surface temperature (SST) of the NCEP Coupled forecast system (CFS). These simulations were carried out on the PARAM Padma supercomputer of Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (C-DAC), India. The model climatology was prepared by integrating the model for ten years using climatological SST as the lower boundary. The climatology of the model compares well with the observed, in terms of the spatial distribution of rainfall over the Indian land mass. The model-simulated rainfall compares well with the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) estimates for the 2005 monsoon season. Compared to the model climatology (7.81 mm/day), the model had simulated a normal rainfall (7.75 mm/day) for the year 2005 which is in agreement with the observations (99% of long-term mean). However, the model could not capture the observed increase in September rainfall from that of a low value in August 2005. The circulation patterns simulated by the model are also comparable to the observed patterns. The ensemble mean onset is found to be nearer to the observed onset date within one pentad.  相似文献   

STUDY ON THE CAUSE OF HEAVY RAIN 200506 （HR200506） IN GUANGDONG     

郑彬  林爱兰  袁金南  谷德军  李春晖  梁建茵 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2007,13(2):145-148

A continuous heavy rain visited Guangdong province during June 18-25, 2005 (named Heavy Rain 200506, HR200506) and had resulted in enormous economic loss. The ageostropic Q vectors, θse,meridional circulation, computed from the NCEP reanalysis, and TBB are used to study the rainfall processes. The results indicated that a convective system moved northwards from the South China Sea (SCS)and stayed in Guangdong for several days, which was a direct cause of HR200506. The process is a result of the activity of the South China Sea summer monsoon. There were two rainbands of HR200506 in Guangdong. One laid in the north of Guangdong that produced frontal rainfall; another situated on the south of Guangdong which produced monsoon rainfall.  相似文献   

Changes in Global Monsoon Circulations Since 1950   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

Chase  T. N.  Knaff  J. A.  Pielke  R. A.  Kalnay  E. 《Natural Hazards》2003,29(2):229-254

We examined changes in several independent intensity indices of four majortropical monsoonal circulations for the period 1950–1998. Theseintensity indices included observed land surface precipitation andobserved ocean surface pressure in the monsoon regions aswell as upper-level divergence calculated at severalstandard levels from the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis. These values wereaveraged seasonally over appropriate regions of southeastern Asian, western Africa, eastern Africa and the Australia/Maritime continent and adjacent ocean areas. Asa consistency check we also examined two secondary indices: mean sea level pressure trends and low level convergence both from theNCEP reanalysis.We find that in each of the four regions examined, a consistentpicture emerges indicating significantly diminished monsoonalcirculations over the period of record, evidence of diminished spatialmaxima in the global hydrological cycle since 1950. Trends since 1979,the period of strongest reported surface warming, do not indicate any change inmonsoon circulations. When strong ENSO years are removed from each of the time series the trends still show a general, significant reduction of monsoon intensity indicating that ENSO variability is not the direct cause for the observed weakening.Most previously reported model simulations of theeffects of rising CO₂ show an increase in monsoonal activity withrising global surface temperature. We find no support in these datafor an increasing hydrological cycle or increasing extremes as hypothesized bygreenhouse warming scenarios.  相似文献   

Lipid distribution in a subtropical southern China stalagmite as a record of soil ecosystem response to paleoclimate change   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Shucheng Xie  Yi Yi  Junhua Huang  Chaoyong Hu  Yanjun Cai  Matthew Collins  Andy Baker 《Quaternary Research》2003,60(3):340-347

Lipid extracts from a 61.7-cm-long subtropical stalagmite in southern China, spanning the period of ca. 10,000–21,000 yr ago as constrained by U–Th dating, were analyzed using gas chromatography–mass spectrometry. The higher plants and microorganisms in the overlying soils contribute a proportion of n-alkanes identified in the stalagmite. The occurrence of LMW (lower molecular weight) n-alkanols and n-alkan-2-ones in the stalagmite was mainly related to the soil microorganisms. We suggest that HMW (higher molecular weight) n-alkanols and n-alkan-2-ones identified in the stalagmite originate from soil organics and reflect input from contemporary vegetation. Shifts in the ratio of LMW to HMW n-alkanols or n-alkan-2-ones indicative of the variation of soil ecosystems (e.g., microbial degradation of organic matter and/or the relative abundance of soil microorganisms to higher plants) are comparable with the subtropical alkenone-SST (sea surface temperature) record of the same period. The similar trends seen in the δ¹³C data and the lipid parameters in this stalagmite imply that the overlying soil ecosystem response to climate might be responsible for the variation of δ¹³C values.  相似文献   

Variability of the Intertropical Convergence Zone recorded in coral isotopic records from the central Indian Ocean (Chagos Archipelago)     

Miriam Pfeiffer  Wolf-Christian Dullo  Anton Eisenhauer 《Quaternary Research》2004,61(3):245-255

We have analyzed the stable oxygen isotopic composition of two Porites corals from the Chagos Archipelago, which is situated in the geographical center of the Indian Ocean. Coral δ¹⁸O at this site reliably records temporal variations in precipitation associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Precipitation maxima occur in boreal winter, when the ITCZ forms a narrow band across the Indian Ocean. The Chagos then lies within the center of the ITCZ, and rainfall is strongly depleted in δ¹⁸O. A 120-yr coral isotopic record indicates an alternation of wet and dry intervals lasting 15 to 20 yr. The most recent 2 decades are dominated by interannual variability, which is tightly coupled to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This is unprecedented in the 120 yr of coral record. As the ITCZ is governed by atmospheric dynamics, this provides evidence of a major change in the coupled ENSO-monsoon system.  相似文献   

Classification and interpretation of piezometer well hydrographs in parts of southeastern peninsular India     

Pradeep Raj 《Environmental Geology》2004,46(6-7):808-819

Well hydrographs from 275 piezometers between 1998 and 2001 in the southeastern parts of peninsular India were used in this study. The area has a monsoon-type climate. Hard rocks cover 85% of the area. The form (shape) of the hydrograph depends upon (1) climatic and hydrogeologic parameters and (2) the scale of the graph. Therefore, hydrographs are drawn to a defined and standardised scale, which allows comparison of hydrographs and helps in bringing out reasons for different forms of the hydrographs. Hydrographs can be divided into seasonal segments and the slope of each segment then used as the basic element of a classification scheme. Slopes are classed as flat (inclination <20°), obtuse (between 20 and 45°), acute (45 and 80°), right angled (80 and 90°) and homoclinal (segments of hydrographs are either rising or falling during one complete water year). Hydrographs are assigned names that are a combination of these classes and begin with the rising segment, such as acute-obtuse. Seventy-six percent of segments were homoclinal-falling in 1999, which had a poor monsoon. Flat segments constitute 27% of all segments in confined Mesozoic aquifer systems. Water table fluctuations suggest an approximate recharge of 120 to 180 mm per annum constituting 18% of the annual precipitation. Cumulative rainfall required to affect a rise in water table is between 45 to 200 mm and lag time varies from 30 minutes to 200 rainy days, which suggests that moisture in the vadose zone holds a part of the annual replenishment for these aquifers.  相似文献   

东亚季风指数及其与大尺度热力环流年际变化关系   总被引：24，自引：1，他引：23  

祝从文  何金海  吴国雄 《气象学报》2000,58(4):391-402

将东西向海平面气压差与低纬度高、低层纬向风切变相结合 ,定义了东亚季风指数 ,该季风指数较好地反映了东亚冬、夏季风变化。其中 ,夏季风指数年际异常对西太平洋副热带高压南北位置变化和长江中下游旱涝具有较强的反映能力。分析表明 :东亚夏季风年际变化与印度洋 -西太平洋上空反 Walker环流及夏季越赤道南北半球间的季风环流呈显著正相关关系。在强、弱异常东亚夏季风年份 ,异常的 Walker环流在西太平洋上的辐合 (辐散 )中心在垂直方向不重合 ,高层 ( 2 0 0 h Pa)速度势与东亚夏季风显著相关区域位于西北太平洋上 ,该异常环流的高层的辐合 (辐散 )通过改变低层空气质量而影响夏季 50 0 h Pa西北太平洋副热带高压。采用 SVD分析进一步发现 :与海温耦合的异常 Walker环流在西太平洋上空的上升支表现出南北半球关于赤道非对称结构 ,亚澳季风区受该异常 Walker环流控制。因而 ,东亚季风与热带海气相互作用可直接通过这种纬向非对称的 Walker环流发生联系。  相似文献   

800KaB．P．来西藏“一江两河”中游地区的气候与西南季风变化     

靳鹤龄  董光荣  李森  刘玉璋  申建友  曹继秀 《中国沙漠》1996,(1)

西藏“一江两河”中游地区风成地层沉积时代、沉积相和磁化率等研究结果表明，早在８００ＫａＢ．Ｐ．前西南季风就已存在，受全球气候波动和青藏高原隆起的影响，其盛行衰变与东南季风具有较好的一致性，主要表现为本区地层所记录的气候变化信息不如东南季风区详细；而且西南季风因高原屏障作用给本区带来的降水愈来愈少，气候明显地向干冷化发展。  相似文献   

黄土高原晚更新世黄土与古季风研究进展   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

庞奖励  黄春长 《干旱区地理》1996,19(2):1-8

黄土高原晚更新世黄土地层含有末次间冰期一次期东亚季风演变的大量信息，经外地学界十年来的探索，初步揭示了东亚季风演化的规律，本文对于这方面研究的现状作了综合评述。  相似文献   

Statistical analysis of the position of the monsoon trough     

G. Rajkumar  R. Narasimha 《Journal of Earth System Science》1996,105(3):343-355

Using surface charts at 0330GMT, the movement of the monsoon trough during the months June to September 1990 at two fixed longitudes, namely 79°E and 85°E, is studied. The probability distribution of trough position shows that the median, mean and mode occur at progressively more northern latitudes, especially at 85°E, with a pronounced mode that is close to the northern-most limit reached by the trough. A spectral analysis of the fluctuating latitudinal position of the trough is carried out using FFT and the Maximum Entropy Method (MEM). Both methods show significant peaks around 7.5 and 2.6 days, and a less significant one around 40–50 days. The two peaks at the shorter period are more prominent at the eastern longitude. MEM shows an additional peak around 15 days. A study of the weather systems that occurred during the season shows them to have a duration around 3 days and an interval between systems of around 9 days, suggesting a possible correlation with the dominant short periods observed in the spectrum of trough position.  相似文献