全球2℃温升碳约束下中国煤电搁浅资产研究     

张为荣  袁家海 《气候变化研究进展》2021,17(1):36-44

作为全球煤电装机规模最大且仍在扩张的国家,中国需要慎重评估兑现《巴黎协定》温室气体减排承诺带来的潜在煤电资产搁浅问题。研究运用“上下交互”的碳锁定曲线模型,识别不同产能扩张情景下（无新增、新增200、300和400 GW）的搁浅煤电机组。首先,从“自上而下”角度匡算中国煤电行业2℃温升目标下的碳配额。然后,从“自下而上”角度,根据高精度的燃煤电站信息核算煤电累积CO₂排放量。最后基于“上下交互”模式筛选出搁浅燃煤电站,在此基础上运用现金流量法估算其潜在的搁浅价值,并对其关键因素进行敏感性分析。结果表明,在无新增情景下,煤电搁浅资产规模约为0.38万亿元;若继续增加200~400 GW煤电装机,则搁浅价值将较无新增情景增加3.7~8.2倍。因此,建议“十四五”期间应树立煤电规模峰值意识,严控煤电新增产能,避免错过最佳减排时机。  相似文献   

RS & GIS-based landslide susceptibility mapping of the Balason River basin,Darjeeling Himalaya,using logistic regression (LR) model     

Subrata Mondal  Sujit Mandal 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2018,12(1):29-44

The present study deals with the preparation of a landslide susceptibility map of the Balason River basin, Darjeeling Himalaya, using a logistic regression model based on Geographic Information System and Remote Sensing. The landslide inventory map was prepared with a total of 295 landslide locations extracted from various satellite images and intensive field survey. Topographical maps, satellite images, geological, geomorphological, soil, rainfall and seismic data were collected, processed and constructed into a spatial database in a GIS environment. The chosen landslide-conditioning factors were altitude, slope aspect, slope angle, slope curvature, geology, geomorphology, soil, land use/land cover, normalised differential vegetation index, drainage density, lineament number density, distance from lineament, distance to drainage, stream power index, topographic wetted index, rainfall and peak ground acceleration. The produced landslide susceptibility map satisfied the decision rules and ?2 Log likelihood, Cox &; Snell R-Square and Nagelkerke R-Square values proved that all the independent variables were statistically significant. The receiver operating characteristic curve showed that the prediction accuracy of the landslide probability map was 96.10%. The proposed LR method can be used in other hazard/disaster studies and decision-making.  相似文献   

基于GF-2影像西藏桑耶地区岩性-构造遥感解译     

侯德华  张立国  王硕  王金贵  程州 《中国地质调查》2018,5(5):66-73

西藏桑耶地区位于青藏高原中南部,区内切割强烈,地势陡峻,属于高山峡谷区。为提高区域地质调查野外工作效率,在调查中率先开展了遥感解译研究。在充分收集已有资料的基础上,通过对GF-2卫星数据进行预处理和影像增强,结合野外验证建立了各地质要素的遥感解译标志,实现了区内不同地层岩性、侵入岩、断裂和褶皱等地质要素的提取,最终编制了研究区1:5万遥感地质解译图,为区域地质调查提供了数据支撑。结果表明: 各地质要素在GF-2数据上均有良好反映,完全满足1:5万尺度的遥感地质解译和编图的需要,充分显示出该卫星数据在区域地质调查等工作中具有良好的应用前景。  相似文献   

Main technical innovations of Songke Well No.2 Drilling Project     

《China Geology》2018,1(2):187-201

Songke Well No.2, one of the main part of the scientific drilling project in Songliao Basin, which was drilled 7018 m and acquired the part of cores continuously from the Low Cretaceous to the Carboniferous and the Permian from the 2843 m deep, can be considered as the deepest continental drilling project in Asia. Aiming at the features of longer well sections, larger diameters and multiple spud-ins for coring of Songke Well No.2, this project broke through the “coring in small diameter and reaming in large diameter” spud-in drilling-completion procedures which are always used in large-diameter-well coring for continental scientific drilling projects in domestic and overseas and the drilling method of short-single-cylinder roundtrip footage. At the same time, “coring in the same diameter and completing drilling at one single diameter” was achieved at all φ311 mm and φ216 mm coring sections of more than one thousand meters long, high-efficient operation with “drilling long footage with drill tools combined in multi-cylinders” was achieved at deep coring section. Four world drilling records were created which include more than a thousand meters continuous coring at φ311 mm, and the footage per roundtrip footage at φ311 mm, φ216 mm and φ152 mm is all more than 30 m, all of these breakthroughs reduced at least 300 days for this project; moreover, considering the characteristics of formations that the geothermal gradient is high in the drilled sections and the inside-well temperature is over 240°C after drilling completion, a formate-polymer water-based mud system was developed by compounding attapulgite and sodium bentonite and by adding independently developed high-temperature stabilizer, which can provide critical technical support for successful well completion at 7018 m in the super-high-temperature environment It is the first time that the water-based mud is operated at the working temperature higher than 240°C in China; Besides, considering the high-quality requirement on cores imposed by the project, the method “mechanical cored is charge” to discharge core nondestructively on the ground was worked out, and more than 4000 m scatheless cores were discharged out of the drill pipes while maintaining original stratum structures.  相似文献   

鄂尔多斯盆地CO2地质封存适宜性与潜力评价     

杨红  赵习森  康宇龙  陈龙龙  黄春霞  王宏 《气候变化研究进展》2019,15(1):95-102

针对目前利用层次分析法对CO₂地质封存进行适宜性评价过程中,极少结合研究区域实际计算低层次评价指标权重,对适宜性评价结果又缺少进一步的分析,结合鄂尔多斯盆地的地质特征,通过计算指标组成权重和适宜性得分对盆地开展了CO₂地质封存适宜性评价,并以适宜区杏子川油田长4+5盖层为例,开展了盖层封闭性评价实验研究。同时,采用相应的计算方法对鄂尔多斯盆地深部咸水层和油藏的CO₂地质封存潜力进行了计算。结果表明：鄂尔多斯盆地在三叠系开展CO₂地质封存的适宜性最好,石炭-二叠系和奥陶系则次之;杏子川油田三叠系延长组长4+5盖层对区域开展CO₂地质封存具备良好的封闭性;鄂尔多斯盆地深部咸水层和油藏的CO₂有效封存量分别为1.33×10 ¹⁰ t和1.91×10 ⁹ t,且在延长石油吴起、靖边及杏子川油田共有56个CO₂地质封存适宜区,其CO₂有效封存量可达1.77×10 ⁸ t。  相似文献   

模式内部变率引起的1.5℃和2℃升温阈值出现时间模拟的不确定性研究     

季涤非  刘利  李立娟  孙超  于馨竹  李锐喆  张诚  王斌 《气候变化研究进展》2019,15(4):343-351

模式内部变率是模拟结果不确定性的重要来源,然而它对于1.5℃和2℃升温阈值出现时间不确定性的影响尚不清楚。因此,基于耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(CMIP5)的多模式数据研究了模式内部变率对1.5℃和2℃升温阈值出现时间不确定性的影响以及对未来排放情景的敏感性。结果表明,模式内部变率对升温阈值出现时间模拟的影响与外强迫的影响相当,单个模式内部不同成员达到全球平均1.5℃或2℃增温的年份相差2~12年;其影响具有明显的空间差异,影响极大值出现在欧亚大陆以北洋面、白令海峡周围区域、北美东北部及其与格陵兰岛之间的海域、南半球高纬地区等;低排放情景下模式内部变率的影响大于高排放情景。  相似文献   

绿色交通目标下集装箱“公转铁”的CO2减排潜力评估     

陶学宗  吴琴  尹传忠 《气候变化研究进展》2019,15(6):660-669

为提高集装箱“公转铁”减排潜力评估结果的准确性,在分析“公转铁”减排原理的基础上,综合考虑空箱调运和重箱运输“门到门”运输链的干线运输、端点装卸、电力设备作业、集卡短驳、公铁中转等排放,引入反映活动类型、设备结构、能源生命周期排放的参数,对作业活动-方式结构-能耗强度-排放因子（ASIF）方法进行改进,建立“公转铁”减排潜力评估框架。以义乌—宁波港域出口集装箱运输为例,通过实地调研和公开文献获取数据,进行实证研究。结果表明,如果忽略必要因素将会导致每TEU运输需求“公转铁”的CO₂减排率被高估0.50~36.73个百分点;最佳“公转铁”情景可减排3.42万t CO₂,相应减排率为13.58%。研究结果可为政府相关部门客观评估“公转铁”的减排潜力、制定有效的“公转铁”政策措施提供理论支持。  相似文献   

四川地区多模式2m温度预报性能分析及集成方法研究          下载免费PDF全文

冯良敏  周秋雪  陈朝平  范江琳 《高原山地气象研究》2019,39(2):30-36

本文通过分析2017年9~12月四川地区ECMWF(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting)细网格模式、GRAPES_GFS(Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System)全球模式和西南区域模式(South West Center-WRF ADAS Real-time Modeling System, SWCWARMS)2m温度168h预报时效内的系统性偏差特征,采用滑动双权重平均法分别对三种模式温度预报产品进行偏差订正,并集成得到各时效2m温度的订正场,结果表明:(1)三种模式的预报存在明显的日变化,整体上EC模式的预报最优。(2)三种模式对于低温和高温的预报,在全省均大致呈现负的系统性误差,特别在高原及过渡区表现的尤为明显。(3)订正后三种模式的预报准确率显著提高,均方根误差减小1.4~2.5℃,大部分地区平均误差维持在±0.5℃之间,在系统性偏差较大的地区,订正效果更好。(4)两种集成方案预报结果接近,且均优于三种模式的订正预报。  相似文献   

An Operational Precipitable Water Vapor Retrieval Algorithm for Fengyun-2F/VISSR Using a Modified Three-Band Physical Split-Window Method     

Juyang HU  Shihao TANG  Hailei LIU  Min MIN 《Journal of Meteorological Research》2019,(2):276-288

The Visible and Infrared Spin-Scan Radiometer(VISSR) onboard the Fengyun-2(FY-2) satellite can provide valuable thermal infrared observations to help create a precipitable water vapor(PWV) product with high spatial and temporal resolutions. The current FY-2/VISSR PWV product in operation is produced by using a traditional two-band physical split-window(PSW) method, which produces low quality results under dry atmospheric conditions. Based on the sensitivity characteristics of FY-2 F/VISSR water vapor channel and two split-window channels to atmospheric water vapor, this study developed a new, robust operational PWV retrieval algorithm for FY-2 F to improve the operational precision of the current PWV product. The algorithm uses a modified three-band PSW method, which adds a scale for the water vapor channel in the improved three-band PSW method. Integrated PWV products from the radiosonde data in 2016 are used here to validate the precision of the PWV retrieved by the modified three-band and traditional two-band PSW methods. The mean bias, root mean square error(RMSE), and correlation coefficient of the PWV retrieved by the modified three-band PSW method are 0.28 mm, 4.53 mm, and 0.969, respectively. The accuracy is much better than the PWV retrieved by the two-band method, whose mean bias, RMSE, and correlation coefficient are 12.67 mm, 29.35 mm, and 0.23. Especially, in mid-or high-latitude regions, the RMSE of the PWV is improved from 10 to 2 mm by changing the inversion in the two-band method to the modified three-band PSW method. Furthermore, the modified three-band PSW results show a better consistency with the radiosonde PWV at any zonal belt and season than the two-band PSW results. This new algorithm could significantly improve the quality of the current FY-2 F/VISSR PWV product, especially at sites where the actual PWV are lower than 15 mm.  相似文献   

热处理褐铁矿去除水中的Mn²⁺     

张羽  刘海波  陈平  皮汇钰  陈天虎 《岩石矿物学杂志》2018,37(4):687-696

本文利用褐铁矿中针铁矿经热脱水相变获得以纳米晶赤铁矿为主要物相的纳米-微米多级孔结构材料,并用于模拟净化富Mn~(2+)地下水。同时考察了热处理温度、初始pH值、初始Mn~(2+)浓度、吸附反应时间等对材料去除溶液中Mn~(2+)的影响。XRD、TEM、BET表征结果表明,300℃热处理产物中赤铁矿孔径最小为2.7 nm,比表面积最大达到107.4 m~2/g。吸附实验结果表明,在pH值5~10的范围内,p H值对煅烧褐铁矿颗粒对Mn~(2+)去除效果影响较小;材料在贫氧条件下对水中低浓度Mn~(2+)的最大吸附量为6.45 mg/g;吸附动力学符合准二级动力学模型;褐铁矿热处理形成的纳米晶赤铁矿对Mn~(2+)具有吸附和催化氧化作用,其中的杂质锰氧化物对Mn~(2+)的吸附和催化氧化具有增强作用。  相似文献