辽宁矿业城市经济系统应对能力分析及其脆弱性评价   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

孙平军  修春亮 《云南地理环境研究》2010,22(2):47-53

矿业城市经济系统脆弱性是关于敏感性和应对能力的一组函数关系式,而其应对能力的影响因素很多,为了实现指标降维和客观赋值,借助主成分分析法和熵值法来简化运算;并构建脆弱性评估模型,以辽宁主要矿业城市为样本进行脆弱性评价。结果表明:(1)矿业城市经济系统脆弱性随其生命周期的推进而逐渐增大,侧面说明经济发展对资源具有高度的"路径依赖"及其产业结构的单一;(2)经济系统面对资源枯竭、国有企业改组改革扰动的敏感性对决定其脆弱性程度作用更为显著;(3)所选样本城市中,阜新市的脆弱度最高,鞍山最低,且在地域分布上呈现出辽东辽西的趋势。最后依据脆弱性特征将案例城市划分为3种类型。  相似文献   

中国城市化对资源与环境影响的综合评价(英文)     

陈明星  陆大道  查良松 《地理学报(英文版)》2010,20(1)

This paper constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system for the urbanization level in China in terms of four aspects of urbanization connotation:population,economy,society,and land. A comprehensive measurement is carried out for the Chinese urbanization between 1981 and 2006 based on the Entropy method. The results show that the comprehensive level of urbanization in China has a continuous increase with the major features of economic growth and a rapid evolution of the geographical landscape,followed ...  相似文献   

磁异常ΔT三维相关成像   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

郭良辉  孟小红  石磊 《地球物理学报》2010,53(2):435-441

本文将重力和重力梯度数据三维相关成像方法推广到磁力勘探领域,推导并建立了磁异常ΔT的三维相关成像方法,同时提出了基于熵滤波分离异常的三维相关成像算法来提高成像分辨率.组合模型磁异常ΔT数据和实际磁测资料试验分析表明,本文方法能成像出地下地质体的空间赋存状态和等效磁性分布,具有良好的横向和纵向分辨率.  相似文献   

Precipitation,dynamical intermittency,and sporadic randomness     

J.R. Rigby  Amilcare Porporato 《Advances in water resources》2010

While rainfall intermittency is a dynamical phenomenon, little progress has been made in the literature on the link between rainfall intermittency and atmospheric dynamics. We present the basic dynamical models of intermittency that are phenomenologically most similar to rainfall: Pomeau–Manneville Type-III and On–Off. We then illustrate each type with both a 1-D iterative map and a corresponding stochastic process stressing the appearance of these dynamics in high-dimensional (stochastic) systems as opposed to low-dimensional chaotic systems. We show that the pdf of rainfall intensities, the pdf of “laminar phases” (periods of zero rainfall intensity), and the spectrum of the rainfall series all have power-law behavior that is broadly consistent with intermittency in the classic types. Using a seasonal analysis, we find that summer convective rainfall at daily and sub-daily scales seems consistent with features of Type-III intermittency. The correspondence with Type-III intermittency and a preliminary entropic analysis further suggest that rainfall may be an example of sporadic randomness, blending deterministic and stochastic components.  相似文献   

The role of hydrologic information in reservoir operation – Learning from historical releases     

Mohamad I. Hejazi  Ximing Cai  Benjamin L. Ruddell 《Advances in water resources》2008,31(12):1636-1650

Closing the gap between theoretical reservoir operation and the real-world implementation remains a challenge in contemporary reservoir operations. Past research has focused on optimization algorithms and establishing optimal policies for reservoir operations. In this study, we attempt to understand operators’ release decisions by investigating historical release data from 79 reservoirs in California and the Great Plains, using a data-mining approach. The 79 reservoirs are classified by hydrological regions, intra-annual seasons, average annual precipitation (climate), ratio of maximum reservoir capacity to average annual inflow (size ratio), hydrologic uncertainty associated with inflows, and reservoirs’ main usage. We use information theory – specifically, mutual information – to measure the quality of inference between a set of classic indicators and observed releases at the monthly and weekly timescales. Several general trends are found to explain which sources of hydrologic information dictate reservoir release decisions under different conditions. Current inflow is the most important indicator during wet seasons, while previous releases are more relevant during dry seasons and in weekly data (as compared with monthly data). Inflow forecasting is the least important indicator in release decision making, but its importance increases linearly with hydrologic uncertainty and decreases logarithmically with reservoir size. No single hydrologic indicator is dominant across all reservoirs in either of the two regions.  相似文献   

基于PSR模型的胶州湾生态安全评价研究          下载免费PDF全文

孙慧莹  余静  周玲玲  冯若燕  于小芹 《海洋开发与管理》2019,36(9):52-59

科学有效地评价胶州湾生态安全程度,是胶州湾地区可持续发展的前提。文章基于PSR模型建立评价指标体系,利用AHP-熵权法确立指标权重,对2007—2016年胶州湾生态安全的发展状况进行了综合评价,并从压力、状态、响应3个方面对影响胶州湾生态安全的主要因素进行系统分析。研究结果表明:胶州湾生态安全指数整体呈波动上升态势,但在2010—2013年略有下降,并在2014年有大幅度的回升直至2016年。生态安全指数在0.4～0.6间波动,整体处于"一般"的生态安全状态。最后,文章提出通过坚持控制入海污水排放量和环境污染,加强海洋生态保护修复与海洋保护区建设,进一步完善胶州湾生态安全保护相关法律制度,注重海洋科技人才培养等方式来促进胶州湾地区生态安全水平的提高。  相似文献   

1961—2016年祁连山区季节性干旱综合指数特征分析     

郭小芹  罗永忠 《气象与环境学报》2019,35(1):88-93

采用Z指数和熵权理论,构建了干旱综合指数作为干旱强度评价标准,对祁连山区季节性干旱特征及其空间分布规律进行了深入剖析。结果表明:1961—2016年季节性干旱强度普遍减弱,其中春秋两季显著减弱,夏季明显减弱;尽管20世纪60—70年代、90年代为季节性干旱频发与重发时段,但从2000年以来夏旱与冬旱却比较频繁,不容忽视。干旱强度由强到弱依次为冬季、夏季、春季和秋季,冬季干旱程度最强;在干旱波动性上秋季最强,冬季次之,春季最弱。春夏秋三季南侧比北侧干旱,冬季北侧比南侧干旱,其中冬季干旱范围最为广泛,尤以酒泉为中心的北侧区域最为显著。在研究时段内祁连山南北两侧干旱强度逐渐减弱,南侧明显减弱,枯草期干旱强度减弱程度尤为显著。本研究为祁连山区干旱评价提供了参考依据。  相似文献   

The relationship between obesity and socioeconomic status among Texas school children and its spatial variation     

《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2017

Understanding the relationships between obesity and socioeconomic status (SES) among school children and the spatial variation of such relationship is essential for developing appropriate intervention strategies. In this study, we employed Local Entropy Map (LEM) to explore the spatial patterns of the relationship at school district level in Texas. Children's obesity was measured by Body Mass Index (BMI). The BMI data for this study were obtained from Physical Fitness Assessment Initiative (PFAI) program that has been coordinated by Texas Education Agency (TEA). SES was described by six variables, which were further reduced into two factors, namely Household SES and Neighborhood SES. The study period was 2012–2013 academic year. LEM analyses revealed clear spatial variation of the relationship between obesity and SES at school-district level. In particular, the prevalence of obesity among school children was found to be significantly related to Household SES and Neighborhood SES in four regions in Texas. These four regions are centered in major metropolitan areas in Texas, including San Antonio, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, and Lubbock. Further regression analyses showed variation of the relationship across these four regions. Obesity among school children in Texas was found to be more related to Household SES than Neighborhood SES; the relationship was strongest in San Antonio region. These findings may suggest the presence of obesogenic environment in the low SES school districts in these regions. Further studies to examine the particular nature of the obesogenic environment in these school districts are needed in order to support the development of regionalized policy and practice that can be more effective in addressing locale specifics.  相似文献   

不同ENSO位相热带中东太平洋与低纬度大气的信息传输不对称性研究          下载免费PDF全文

张志森  胡泊  封国林 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2016,74(2):165-175

基于传递熵和再分析数据,讨论了不同ENSO位相下热带中东太平洋与其上空大气的信息传输,研究结果表明:厄尔尼诺、拉尼娜及中性状态下均是以海洋输出信息、大气输入信息为主导的特征,且海洋和大气输入和输出信息的空间分布型较类似。相对中性状态而言,厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜状态下,海洋和大气输入和输出的信息均较强;拉尼娜状态相比厄尔尼诺状态,海洋与大气输入和输出的信息要稍强。通过重排滑动随机抽样方法分析了热带中东太平洋与其上空大气信息传输强度与海温异常的关系,重点分析了热带中东太平洋与其上空大气信息传输的不对称性。揭示了海洋对大气的信息传输随海温距平的变化可以分为类拉尼娜、类中性状态及类厄尔尼诺3个阶段:类拉尼娜阶段,随着低海温的减弱信息传输逐渐减弱;类中性状态,低海温向高海温的过渡过程,信息传输并不存在显著的变化趋势;类厄尔尼诺,随着高海温的增强信息传输逐渐增强。热带中东太平洋与其上空大气信息传输的不对称性更表现为类拉尼娜和类厄尔尼诺阶段信息传输与海温异常之间建立线性关系的阈值和线性趋势程度的不对称。此外,大气对海洋的信息传输随海温的变化与海洋对大气的信息传输随海温的变化类似,即海洋对大气信息传输较强时,大气对海洋的信息传输同样较强,反之亦然,并且大气对海洋的信息传输随海温的变化同样存在不对称性。  相似文献   

Revisiting prior distributions,Part II: Implications of the physical prior in maximum entropy analysis     

Rafi Baker  George Christakos 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2007,21(4):435-446

The well-known “Maximum Entropy Formalism” offers a powerful framework for deriving probability density functions given a relevant knowledge base and an adequate prior. The majority of results based on this approach have been derived assuming a flat uninformative prior, but this assumption is to a large extent arbitrary (any one-to-one transformation of the random variable will change the flat uninformative prior into some non-constant function). In a companion paper we introduced the notion of a natural reference point for dimensional physical variables, and used this notion to derive a class of physical priors that are form-invariant to changes in the system of dimensional units. The present paper studies effects of these priors on the probability density functions derived using the maximum entropy formalism. Analysis of real data shows that when the maximum entropy formalism uses the physical prior it yields significantly better results than when it is based on the commonly used flat uninformative prior. This improvement reflects the significance of the incorporating additional information (contained in physical priors), which is ignored when flat priors are used in the standard form of the maximum entropy formalism. A potentially serious limitation of the maximum entropy formalism is the assumption that sample moments are available. This is not the case in many macroscopic real-world problems, where the knowledge base available is a finite sample rather than population moments. As a result, the maximum entropy formalism generates a family of “nested models” parameterized by the unknown values of the population parameters. In this work we combine this formalism with a model selection scheme based on Akaike’s information criterion to derive the maximum entropy model that is most consistent with the available sample. This combination establishes a general inference framework of wide applicability in scientific/engineering problems.  相似文献