基于模糊理论和典型线路的地质灾害评价的GIS方法研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

胡圣武 《测绘科学》2011,36(4):86-88,65

根据影响区域地质灾害发生的地质因素、地形因素、诱发因素和人为因素,建立区域地质灾害评价指标体系,对典型线路穿越的评价试验区进行地质灾害区域评价.由于地质灾害数据不仅含有不确定性而且还有复杂的模糊性,因而选用模糊评价方法.本文主要通过选取典型线路,采用模糊综合评判,利用GIS来进行,该研究结果表明是科学的、合理的和客观的...  相似文献   

亚高斯贝叶斯预报处理器及其初步试验     

陈法敬  矫梅燕  陈静 《气象学报》2011,69(5):872-882

为用户提供概率天气预报信息是公共气象服务的发展趋势,概率天气预报技术的不断改进实现了概率天气预报信息的不断优化。在众多概率天气预报技术方法中,贝叶斯预报处理器是一种新近出现的、基于贝叶斯统计理论的概率预报技术;贝叶斯预报处理器可以根据一个确定性预报系统的预报值与观测值之间代表着这个系统预报性能的统计关系,借助于贝叶斯统计理论,把一个确定性预报转化为一个概率预报,从而实现对预报不确定性的定量化。由于亚高斯似然模型可以适用于多种单调似然比随机依赖结构,故采用该似然模型的亚高斯贝叶斯预报处理器,它在气象、水文等领域具有较强的适用性。在简要介绍了连续型二维随机变量情形下的贝叶斯定理及正态-线性贝叶斯预报处理器之后,详细论述了采用单一预报因子的连续型预报量亚高斯贝叶斯预报处理器,并以长沙站和武汉站2008年1月每日00时(世界时)地面气温(T2m)的中国国家气象中心、欧洲中期天气预报中心、美国国家环境预测中心集合预报中的控制预报资料(预报时效选为96h)作为确定性预报样本,对亚高斯贝叶斯预报处理器进行了初步试验。结果表明,亚高斯贝叶斯预报处理器可以将T2m各集合预报中的控制预报转化为能定量地表达各控制预报不确定性的T2...  相似文献   

Balancing groundwater conservation and rural livelihoods under water and climate uncertainties: An integrated hydro-economic modeling framework     

Consuelo Varela-Ortega  Irene Blanco-Gutiérrez  Christopher H. Swartz  Thomas E. Downing 《Global Environmental Change》2011,21(2):604-619

In arid countries worldwide, social conflicts between irrigation-based human development and the conservation of aquatic ecosystems are widespread and attract many public debates. This research focuses on the analysis of water and agricultural policies aimed at conserving groundwater resources and maintaining rural livelihoods in a basin in Spain's central arid region. Intensive groundwater mining for irrigation has caused overexploitation of the basin's large aquifer, the degradation of reputed wetlands and has given rise to notable social conflicts over the years. With the aim of tackling the multifaceted socio-ecological interactions of complex water systems, the methodology used in this study consists in a novel integration into a common platform of an economic optimization model and a hydrology model WEAP (Water Evaluation And Planning system). This robust tool is used to analyze the spatial and temporal effects of different water and agricultural policies under different climate scenarios. It permits the prediction of different climate and policy outcomes across farm types (water stress impacts and adaptation), at basin's level (aquifer recovery), and along the policies’ implementation horizon (short and long run). Results show that the region's current quota-based water policies may contribute to reduce water consumption in the farms but will not be able to recover the aquifer and will inflict income losses to the rural communities. This situation would worsen in case of drought. Economies of scale and technology are evidenced as larger farms with cropping diversification and those equipped with modern irrigation will better adapt to water stress conditions. However, the long-term sustainability of the aquifer and the maintenance of rural livelihoods will be attained only if additional policy measures are put in place such as the control of illegal abstractions and the establishing of a water bank. Within the policy domain, the research contributes to the new sustainable development strategy of the EU by concluding that, in water-scarce regions, effective integration of water and agricultural policies is essential for achieving the water protection objectives of the EU policies. Therefore, the design and enforcement of well-balanced region-specific polices is a major task faced by policy makers for achieving successful water management that will ensure nature protection and human development at tolerable social costs. From a methodological perspective, this research initiative contributes to better address hydrological questions as well as economic and social issues in complex water and human systems. Its integrated vision provides a valuable illustration to inform water policy and management decisions within contexts of water-related conflicts worldwide.  相似文献   

大尺度水循环模拟系统不确定性研究进展(英文)   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

宋晓猛  占车生  孔凡哲  夏军 《地理学报(英文版)》2011,21(5):801-819

The regional hydrological system is extremely complex because it is affected not only by physical factors but also by human dimensions.And the hydrological models play a very important role in simulating the complex system.However,there have not been effective methods for the model reliability and uncertainty analysis due to its complexity and difficulty.The uncertainties in hydrological modeling come from four important aspects:uncertainties in input data and parameters,uncertainties in model structure,uncertainties in analysis method and the initial and boundary conditions.This paper systematically reviewed the recent advances in the study of the uncertainty analysis approaches in the large-scale complex hydrological model on the basis of uncertainty sources.Also,the shortcomings and insufficiencies in the uncertainty analysis for complex hydrological models are pointed out.And then a new uncertainty quantification platform PSUADE and its uncertainty quantification methods were introduced,which will be a powerful tool and platform for uncertainty analysis of large-scale complex hydrological models.Finally,some future perspectives on uncertainty quantification are put forward.  相似文献   

TIN DEM线性内插不确定性的随机过程模型     

钟剑龙  花向红  陈华安 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》2010,(2)

基于随机过程模型导出了TIN DEM线性内插的随机过程模型,给出了不规则随机空间三角形的不确定性描述,讨论了TIN节点误差在线性内插中的传播问题。通过理论推导和实际算例,得到了TIN DEM线性内插点的点位方差和误差椭球半轴的解析表达式、线性内插精度最高点坐标的解析表达式,该结论与三角形的形状无关;对DEM线性外推导致精度急剧下降的必然性结论进行了理论证明;得到TIN线性内插的平均点位方差解析式,从理论上说明了本文结论的有效性。  相似文献   

光纤陀螺二位置寻北结果的测量不确定度评定     

马小辉  蒋理兴  刘思伟 《测绘科学》2010,35(5):21-23

二位置寻北由于其实现简单,成为光纤陀螺寻北的一种重要方案。如何对二位置寻北方案的测量结果进行准确而可靠的评价,对该方案在光纤陀螺寻北中的应用具有指导意义。本文针对一般评价方法的局限性,提出用测量不确定度的评价方法对光纤陀螺二位置寻北方案进行分析。基于二位置寻北的数学模型,给出了其测量不确定度分析的具体过程。实例计算表明,测量不确定度为光纤陀螺二位置寻北提供了一种准确的评定方法,可用于对各种寻北方案进行分析与评价。  相似文献   

Assessing damaged road verges as a suspended sediment source in the Hampshire Avon catchment,southern United Kingdom     

A. L. Collins  D. E. Walling  R. W. Stroud  M. Robson  L. M. Peet 《水文研究》2010,24(9):1106-1122

Diffuse sediment pollution impairs water quality, exerts a key control on the transfer and fate of nutrients and contaminants and causes deleterious impacts on freshwater ecology. A variety of catchment sediment sources can contribute to such problems. Sediment control strategies and effective targeting of mitigation options therefore require robust quantitative information on the key sources of the sediment problem at catchment scale. Recent observations by Catchment Sensitive Farming Officers (CSFO's) in England have highlighted road verges damaged and eroded by passing vehicles, particularly large farm machinery, and livestock herd movement as visually important potential sources of local sediment problems. A study was therefore undertaken to assess the relative importance of damaged road verges as a suspended sediment source in three sub‐catchments of the Hampshire Avon drainage basin, southern UK. Road verge sediment contributions were apportioned in conjunction with those from agricultural topsoils and channel banks/subsurface sources. Time‐integrating isokinetic samplers were deployed to sample suspended sediment fluxes at the outlets of two control sub‐catchments drained by the Rivers Chitterne and Till selected to characterize areas with a low road network density and limited visual evidence of verge damage, as well as the River Sem sub‐catchment used to represent areas where road verge damage is more prevalent. The findings of a sediment source fingerprinting investigation based on a combination of intermittent sampling campaigns spanning the period 22/5/02–27/4/08 suggested that the respective overall mean relative sediment contributions from damaged road verges were 5 ± 3%, 4 ± 2% and 20 ± 2%. Relative inputs from damaged road verges for any specific sampling period in the River Sem sub‐catchment were as high as 33 ± 2%. Reconstruction of historical sources in the same sub‐catchment, based on the geochemical record stored in a floodplain depth profile, suggested that the significance of damaged road verges as a sediment source has increased over the past 15–20 years. The findings provide important information on damaged road verges as a primary source of suspended sediment and imply that catchment sediment control strategies and mitigation plans should consider such verges in addition to those agricultural and channel sources traditionally taken into account when attempting to reduce sediment pressures on aquatic resources. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Impacts of uncertain river flow data on rainfall‐runoff model calibration and discharge predictions     

Hilary McMillan  Jim Freer  Florian Pappenberger  Tobias Krueger  Martyn Clark 《水文研究》2010,24(10):1270-1284

In order to quantify total error affecting hydrological models and predictions, we must explicitly recognize errors in input data, model structure, model parameters and validation data. This paper tackles the last of these: errors in discharge measurements used to calibrate a rainfall‐runoff model, caused by stage–discharge rating‐curve uncertainty. This uncertainty may be due to several combined sources, including errors in stage and velocity measurements during individual gaugings, assumptions regarding a particular form of stage–discharge relationship, extrapolation of the stage–discharge relationship beyond the maximum gauging, and cross‐section change due to vegetation growth and/or bed movement. A methodology is presented to systematically assess and quantify the uncertainty in discharge measurements due to all of these sources. For a given stage measurement, a complete PDF of true discharge is estimated. Consequently, new model calibration techniques can be introduced to explicitly account for the discharge error distribution. The method is demonstrated for a gravel‐bed river in New Zealand, where all the above uncertainty sources can be identified, including significant uncertainty in cross‐section form due to scour and re‐deposition of sediment. Results show that rigorous consideration of uncertainty in flow data results in significant improvement of the model's ability to predict the observed flow. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Non-Darcian groundwater flow in leaky aquifers     

ZEKAI ŞEN 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):595-606

Abstract

A simplified method has been developed for solving leaky aquifer non-Darcian flow hydraulics. The principle of volumetric approach is combined with the confined-aquifer, time-dependent drawdown equation in an observation well. The groundwater flow in the leaky aquifer is assumed to obey a non-Darcian flow law of exponential type. The results are obtained in the form of type-curve expressions from which the necessary bundles of curves are drawn for a set of selective non-Darcian flow aquifer parameters. Although application of the methodology appears as rather limited but it provides a scientific contribution and extension of leaky aquifer theory towards nonlinear flow conditions. The methodology developed herein is applied to some actual field data from the eastern sedimentary basin in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.  相似文献   

Recharge estimation using remotely sensed evapotranspiration in an irrigated catchment in southeast Australia     

F. Githui  B. Selle  T. Thayalakumaran 《水文研究》2012,26(9):1379-1389

Reliable estimates of groundwater recharge are required for the sustainable management of surface and ground water resources in semi‐arid regions particularly in irrigated regions. In this study, groundwater recharge was estimated for an irrigated catchment in southeast Australia using a semi‐distributed hydrological model (SWAT). The model was calibrated under the dry climatic conditions for the period from August 2002 to July 2003 using flow and remotely sensed evapotranspiration (ET). The model was able to simulate observed monthly drain flow and spatially distributed remotely sensed ET. Recharge tended to be higher for irrigated land covers, such as perennial pasture, than for non‐irrigated land. On average, the estimated annual catchment recharge ranged between 147 and 289 mm which represented about 40% of the total rainfall and irrigation inputs. The optimized soil parameters indirectly reflected flow bypassing the soil matrix that could be responsible for this substantial amount of recharge. Overall, the estimated recharge was much more than that previously estimated for the wetter years. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献