本世纪初我国大陆7级大震危险性研究     

李海华  沈繁銮  吴德珍  袁锡文  王正尚 《华南地震》2001,21(2):1-8

地震大形势研究结果表明，我国大陆地区（含边境）１９９９年已进入为期１２年的相对平静幕，幕内可能发生３次７级地震，最大震级不超过７．２级。首发７级地震为２０００年６月８日缅甸７级（位于中缅边境）。预计第二个７级地震危险时间在２００５±０．５年。第三个在２００８年前后。分析了我国主要地震区强震概率增益，给出了３个危险地点。未来３年即２００１～２００３年是相对安全时段，我国大陆不会发生７级以上破坏性地震。２０１１～２０２０年可能进入新世纪第一个７级大地震相对活跃幕，预计该幕持续１０年， 可发生１０次７～７.６级大震。  相似文献   

走向21世纪的矿床学   总被引：10，自引：2，他引：10  

翟裕生 《矿床地质》2001,20(1):10-14

文章简要回顾了百年来矿床学取得的重要进展，包括：（1）矿床成因分类的建立；（2）层控矿床研究与矿床多成因理论的兴起；（3）板块构造与区域成矿规律；（4）矿床模型；(5)型矿床研究；（6）海洋现代热液成矿作用的发现；（7）成矿演化的不可逆性与节律性等。针对21世纪中人类社会可持续发展的需要，矿床学研究出现了两个新趋势；（1）全球化；（2）矿业开发与环境保护一体化。面临着三个主要研究领域；（1）成矿理论的推陈出新；（2）研究开发新型矿产资源，建立广义的矿产资源地质学；（3）建立绿色矿业体制所需的矿床学基础研究。  相似文献   

ON ECOLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS, UTILIZATION AND MANAGEMENT OF THE TIBETAN PLATEAU, CHINA     

Yang Qinye Institute of Geography  CAS  Beijing People''s Republic of China 《地理学报(英文版)》1997,(2)

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A Local Least-Squares Modification of Stokes’ Formula     

L.E. Sjöberg 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2005,49(1):23-30

The combination of Stokes formula and an Earth Gravity Model (EGM) for geoid determination has become a standard procedure. However, the way of modifying Stokes formula vary from author to author, and numerous methods of modification exist. Most methods are deterministic, with the primary goal of reducing the truncation bias committed by limiting the area of Stokes integration around the computation point, but there are also some stochastic methods with the explicit goal to reduce the global mean square error of the geoid height estimator stemming from the truncation bias as well as the random errors of the EGM and the gravity data. The latter estimators are thus, at least from a theoretical point of view, optimal in a global mean sense, but in a local sense they may be far from optimality.Here we take advantage of the error variance-covariance matrices of the EGM and the terrestrial gravity data to derive the modification parameters of Stokes kernel in a local least-squares sense. The solution is given for the unbiased type of modification of Stokes formula of Sjöberg (1991).  相似文献   

Channel change,bankfull and effective discharges on a vertically accreting,meandering, gravel‐bed river     

B. Gomez  S. E. Coleman  V. W. K. Sy  D. H. Peacock  M. Kent 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2007,32(5):770-785

Along the lower reaches of the Waipaoa River, New Zealand, cross‐section survey data indicate there was a 23 per cent decrease in bankfull width and a 22 per cent reduction in channel cross‐section area between 1948 and 2000, as the channel responded to increased inputs of fine (suspended) sediment following deforestation of the headwaters in late C19 and early C20. We determined the bankfull discharge within a ～39 km long reach by routing known discharges through the one‐dimensional MIKE 11 flow model. The model runs suggest that the bankfull discharge varies between ～800 and ～2300 m³ s^?1 and that the average recurrence interval is 4 ± 2 years on the annual maximum series; by contrast, the effective flow (360 m³ s^?1) is equaled or exceeded three times a year. The variability in bankfull discharge arises because the banks tend to be lower in places where flood flows are constricted than in reaches where overbank flow is dispersed over a wide area, and because scour has counteracted aggradation in some locations. There is no downstream variation in Shields stress, or in relative shear stress, within the study reach. Bankfull shear stress is, on average, five times greater than the shear stress required to initiate motion. At the effective discharge it is more than twice the threshold value. The effective discharge probably has more relevance than the bankfull discharge to the overall picture of sediment movement in the lower reaches of the Waipaoa River but, because width is constrained by the stability and resistance of the bank material to erosion during high flows that also scour the bed, the overall channel geometry is likely determined by discharges at or near bankfull. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

大峪沟井田滑动构造研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

徐培  张晶 《中国煤田地质》2007,19(2):11-13

以大峪沟井田构造、二1煤层及其顶、底板砂岩为研究重点,发现整个井田为一大型滑动构造,并分析了该滑动构造的形成条件,指出了滑动构造对煤层赋存的影响规律,为今后类似井田的勘查和开发提供了参考.  相似文献   

第四纪科学发展展望   总被引：12，自引：0，他引：12       下载免费PDF全文

刘东生 《第四纪研究》2003,23(2):165-176

第四纪科学是地球科学的一个分支.20世纪中国第四纪研究的发展历史,可以分为两个阶段:1909～1949年,强调理论研究与实际应用的结合,适当地采用"全盘西化"的办法,将中国与世界先进的差距,由100年缩短为50年,跨越了一大步;1950～2000年,在完成国家需求的鼓励下,适当地越过经典研究范畴,参与环境问题和全球变化的研究,使得中国第四纪科学追赶了50年的差距.在21世纪开始之时,中国与国际第四纪研究的步伐有前有后,但基本上是站在同一起跑线上.对21世纪的第四纪研究,作者提出了以"研究过去只是为了未来"和"地学的文艺复兴在呼唤未来"为题的两个思路,从1)以人为本--务实社会需求;2)地球和人类共同的历史--人与自然和谐;3)我们需要自己提出理论--一种科学文化;4)群众需要第四纪--极大地提高人民的素质等4个方面展望了中国第四纪研究的新形势.  相似文献   

多目标的地质大调查 ——21世纪勘查地球化学的战略选择   总被引：12，自引：0，他引：12  

奚小环 《物探与化探》2007,31(4):283-288

21世纪勘查地球化学面临发展问题.2001～2005年勘查地球化学以国家其基础性公益性地质工作为主导,以经济社会发展需求为动力,以资源与环境并重为方针,实施多目标的地质大调查,取得一系列重要成果,标志勘查地球化学进入全面发展阶段.这是勘查地球化学的战略选择.在现代科学技术取得最新成就起点上,构建理论体系、方法体系和质量体系,在各项工作中采取科学态度和积极有效措施,推动勘查地球化学不断达到新的高度.  相似文献   

Seasonal and spatial characteristics of seawater and sediment at Youngil Bay, southeast coast of Korea   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Lee M  Bae W  Chung J  Jung HS  Shim H 《Marine pollution bulletin》2008,57(6-12):325-334

The seasonal geochemical characteristics of the seawater and sediments and the major factors causing heavy metal contamination were investigated at the Youngil bay and the Hyungsan river estuary in the Southeast Coast of Korea, where a world-scale steel-industry complex (Pohang iron and steel industrial complex, POSCO) is located. The seasonal and spatial distribution characteristics of temperature, dissolved oxygen (DO), pH, and nutrients of the seawater were studied at 45 fixed stations, especially focusing on the river mouth area. Sediments at 27 stations were examined during winter and summer to determine the major controlling factors for the distribution of metals, using correlation matrix and R-mode factor analyses, and to evaluate the pollution status, using the modified geoaccumulation (I(geo)(')) index. Temperatures for the effluent from the POSCO located at the Hyungsan river mouth were 2-3 degrees C higher compared to other sampling areas, due to the thermal discharge from the POSCO. The DO concentration of the surface water at the Pohang old port was as low as 2-4 mg/L. In spring, the DO value at the Hyungsan river mouth was higher than 12 mg/L, by the mass multiplication of phytoplanktons at the river mouth where seawater temperature and nutrients concentrations were relatively high, resulting in the pH value of higher than 8.3. The nitrogen to phosphorus (N/P) ratios at the river mouth were 20-150 times higher compared to other areas, implying that the nitrogen loading into this semi-enclosed bay is significantly higher than phosphorus and the major nitrogen sources are not only the domestic sewage from the city but the industrial wastewater from the POSCO and other steel factories nearby. The phosphorus concentrations at the Pohang old port were shown 3-10 times higher than those at other stations, due to the inflow of pollutants generated from the nearby ships anchoring and the release of phosphate from the bottom sediment. Results from the sediment analysis showed that the major controlling factors for the distribution pattern of each metal are grain size and organic carbon (C(org)) content. Based on the factor analysis, Al, Fe, Cr, Li, and Pb were shown strongly correlated with the mean grain size (Mz), whereas Cd, Cu, Zn, and Sn with the C(org) content. Results from the fractionation of the sedimentary metals into lattice and labile fractions to characterize the mobility of sediment metals showed that the mineral lattice fraction was high in the order of Al=K>Cr>Li>Sr>Fe, while the labile fraction, which might be released to the overlying water, was in the order of Pb>Zn>Cd>Cu>Ca>Sn. Evaluation of the sediment pollution status by applying (I(geo)(')) of 13 metals showed Cd, Cu, and Zn as high as 1-3 range at the old port. Even though the overall marine pollution mainly by the world-class steel industrial complex in this semi-enclosed bay area studied does not currently pose a serious threat, due to the seawater circulation and the large influx of river discharge, the countermeasures to implement the sediments concentrated with heavy metals, especially at the old port with no seawater circulation, are still warranted for this coastal water environment.  相似文献   

Timing of deglaciation on the northern Alpine foreland (Switzerland)     

Susan Ivy-Ochs  Jörg Schäfer  Peter W. Kubik  Hans-Arno Synal  Christian Schlüchter 《Eclogae Geologicae Helvetiae》2004,97(1):47-55

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