Climatic control on river discharge simulations,Zackenberg River drainage basin,northeast Greenland     

Sebastian H. Mernild  Bent Hasholt  Glen E. Liston 《水文研究》2008,22(12):1932-1948

A spatially distributed, physically based, hydrologic modeling system (MIKE SHE) was applied to quantify intra‐ and inter‐annual discharge from the snow and glacierized Zackenberg River drainage basin (512 km²; 20% glacier cover) in northeast Greenland. Evolution of snow accumulation, distribution by wind‐blown snow, blowing‐snow sublimation, and snow and ice surface melt were simulated by a spatially distributed, physically based, snow‐evolution modelling system (SnowModel) and used as input to MIKE SHE. Discharge simulations were performed for three periods 1997–2001 (calibration period), 2001–2005 (validation period), and 2071–2100 (scenario period). The combination of SnowModel and MIKE SHE shows promising results; the timing and magnitude of simulated discharge were generally in accordance with observations (R² = 0·58); however, discrepancies between simulated and observed discharge hydrographs do occur (maximum daily difference up to 44·6 m³ s^?1 and up to 9% difference between observed and simulated cumulative discharge). The model does not perform well when a sudden outburst of glacial dammed water occurs, like the 2005 extreme flood event. The modelling study showed that soil processes related to yearly change in active layer depth and glacial processes (such as changes in yearly glacier area, seasonal changes in the internal glacier drainage system, and the sudden release of glacial bulk water storage) need to be determined, for example, from field studies and incorporated in the models before basin runoff can be quantified more precisely. The SnowModel and MIKE SHE model only include first‐order effects of climate change. For the period 2071–2100, future IPCC A2 and B2 climate scenarios based on the HIRHAM regional climate model and HadCM3 atmosphere–ocean general circulation model simulations indicated a mean annual Zackenberg runoff about 1·5 orders of magnitude greater (around 650 mmWE year^?1) than from today 1997–2005 (around 430 mmWE year^?1), mainly based on changes in negative glacier net mass balance. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

21世纪初期河南地质找矿战略理论与技术方法     

司马献章 《河南国土资源》1999,(3)

本文概述了新、老矿区的战略找矿方向和基础理论找矿模式,提出测试、钻探及最佳找矿技术方法组合,强化组织管理是地质勘查的正确思路  相似文献   

21世纪初期河南省基础地质研究方向与成功战略     

王建平  林德超  裴放 《河南国土资源》1999,(3)

20世纪河南省基础地质研究经历三个阶段。第一阶段50年,随矿产调查进行。第二阶段30年,随矿产勘查和1∶20万区调开展。第三阶段20年,随1∶5万区调、矿产勘查、专题与综合研究广泛展开。为谋求21世纪初期河南省基础地质较快发展,作者认为应有新的指导思想、研究方法和服务方向,并提出知识创新、人才培养和经费保障三项成功战略。  相似文献   

广州市南沙区万顷沙网河区排涝调蓄演算研究     

刘树锋  刘一休  杨晨  陈记臣  谭丹  沈学明 《亚热带资源与环境学报》2021,16(1):1-8

快速城市化进程改变了城市地区原有下垫面,不透水层面积增加,暴雨期间汇流时间缩短,洪峰流量加大,进而导致城市内涝加剧,严重影响城市的防洪安全。本研究以广州市南沙区万顷沙网河区为研究对象,基于水量平衡的调蓄演算方法,对研究区域蓄排设施的规模进行分析;构建MIKE11一维网河模型,对涝区水情进行模拟,校核排涝工程规模,并对工程布局与规模进行了优化。结果表明:(1)万顷沙网河区在典型水文组合情况下,内河涌最高水位6.15 m,泵站抽排历时约11 h,抽排流量65 m3·s-1,满足排涝需求;(2)结合片区泵站排水能力,可使片区达到20年一遇24 h暴雨不成灾的规划防洪标准,片区水闸和泵站参数选取合适;(3)在50年一遇超标准情况下,万十涌水位最高约6.33 m,超过片区管控水位,表明当防洪标准提升,片区需合理增设排涝泵站规模,以满足管控水位要求。研究成果可为沿海城市的排涝减灾和实现水系综合整治提供科学依据。  相似文献   

Impact of climate and socioeconomic changes on fire carbon emissions in the future: Sustainable economic development might decrease future emissions     

《Global Environmental Change》2023

Fires and their associated carbon and air pollutant emissions have a broad range of environmental and societal impacts, including negative effects on human health, damage to terrestrial ecosystems, and indirect effects that promote climate change. Previous studies investigated future carbon emissions from the perspective of response to climate change and population growth, but the compound effects of other factors like economic development and land use change are not yet well known. We explored fire carbon emissions throughout the 21st century by changing five factors (meteorology, biomass, land use, population density, and gross domestic product [GDP] per capita). Compared to the historical period (2006–2015), global future fire carbon emissions decreased, mainly caused by an increase in GDP per capita, which leads to improvement in fire management and capitalized agriculture. We found that the meteorological factor has a strong individual effect under higher warming cases. Fires in boreal forests were particularly expected to increase because of an increase in fuel dryness. Our research should help climate change researchers consider fire-carbon interactions. Incorporating future spatial changes under diverse scenarios will be helpful to develop national mitigation and adaptation plans.  相似文献   

21世纪的大洋钻探——IODP   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

薛发玉  翟世奎 《海洋地质与第四纪地质》2002,22(1):109-114

人类在地球科学方面已取得了相当大的成就,但就研究范围而言,却仅仅触及了地球的表层。IODP是一项国际性的大洋钻探计划,预期将于2003年10月正式开始实施。IODP将运用新的科学方法、科技设备,使人类对大洋底乃至整个地球系统得出更深、更广的认识。简单介绍了IODP的由来、组织机构、钻井技术、前期科学目标及中国的深海研究现状,提出中国参与IODP的必要性和可行性。通过了解21世纪的IODP在研究课题及研究技术方面的最新动态,不仅有助于我国根据国际动态调整深海研究的方向,制定符合我国需求的研究计划,而且有助于我国把握参与21世纪IODP的时机和策略,迎接“海洋世纪”的挑战,从而逐步实现“从地学大国走向地学强国”的目标。  相似文献   

Comparison of two three-dimensional hydrodynamic modeling systems for coastal tidal motion     

Q.Y. Zhang   《Ocean Engineering》2006,33(2):137-151

A comparison of two three-dimensional numerical modeling systems for tidal elevations and velocities in the coastal waters is presented. The two modeling systems are: (1) the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) and (2) the MIKE 3 flow model. The model performance results for Singapore's coastal waters show that the predicted tidal elevations from the two hydrodynamic modeling systems are almost identical and are in very good agreement with field measurement data. The simulated tidal current velocities match well with field measurement data at the selected stations, but it seems that the POM provides the slightly better simulation, compared to the MIKE 3 flow model. The depth profiles of the velocities obtained from the two modeling systems may be greatly different at some time, due to the vertical diffusion coefficient calculated from different turbulent sub-models in the two modeling systems. The POM generally predicts larger peak tidal velocities. The maximum speed differences for the model results from the two modeling systems occur in the top and differ from time to time and from location to location, reaching up to 20%.  相似文献   

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT FACING CHALLENGESIN 21ST CENTURY     

CHEN Guo-jie 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2001,11(4):289-293

ISUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IS UNDER UN－guiding human forward．he author pointed out manyCEASINGCHALLENGES times that sustainable developmentwas a correctstrategic selectlonforhumanfuture and It representedaThe Zlst Century has come，people have many newdevelopmentoutlook，strategic vie呷olntandvalueforecasts and long for a wonde山lprospect．The 21st（CHEN，1997；200a；200b）．Century lsa bio－sclentmc era，an economic global－The authoralso pointed out th…  相似文献   

New magnetic field measurements of β Cephei stars and slowly pulsating B stars     

S. Hubrig  M. Briquet  P. De Cat  M. Schller  T. Morel  I. Ilyin 《Astronomische Nachrichten》2009,330(4):317-329

We present the results of the continuation of our magnetic survey with FORS 1 at the VLT of a sample of B‐type stars consisting of confirmed or candidate β Cephei stars and Slowly Pulsating B (hereafter SPB) stars, along with a small number of normal B‐type stars. A weak mean longitudinal magnetic field of the order of a few hundred Gauss was detected in three β Cephei stars and two stars suspected to be β Cephei stars, in five SPB stars and eight stars suspected to be SPB stars. Additionally, a longitudinal magnetic field at a level larger than 3σ has been diagnosed in two normal B‐type stars, the nitrogen‐rich early B‐type star HD 52089 and in the B5 IV star HD 153716. Roughly one third of β Cephei stars have detected magnetic fields: Out of 13 β Cephei stars studied to date with FORS 1, four stars possess weak magnetic fields, and out of the sample of six suspected β Cephei stars two show a weak magnetic field. The fraction of magnetic SPBs and candidate SPBs is found to be higher: Roughly half of the 34 SPB stars have been found to be magnetic and among the 16 candidate SPBs eight stars possess magnetic fields. In an attempt to understand why only a fraction of pulsating stars exhibit magnetic fields, we studied the position of magnetic and non‐magnetic pulsating stars in the H‐R diagram. We find that their domains in the H‐R diagram largely overlap, and no clear picture emerges as to the possible evolution of the magnetic field across the main sequence. It is possible that stronger fields tend to be found in stars with lower pulsating frequencies and smaller pulsating amplitudes. A somewhat similar trend is found if we consider a correlation between the field strength and the v sin i ‐values, i.e. stronger magnetic fields tend to be found in more slowly rotating stars (© 2009 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)  相似文献   

挑战地球科学的新前沿 21世纪大洋综合钻探计划(OD21)          下载免费PDF全文

刘广志 《探矿工程》2002,(3):55-57

简要介绍即将实施的“21世纪大洋综合钻探计划”的目的、要求、设施等。  相似文献