21世纪前期长江中下游流域极端降水预估及不确定性分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

周莉  兰明才  蔡荣辉  文萍  姚蓉  杨云芸 《气象学报》2018,76(1):47-61

在全球变暖背景下,极端降水的频率、强度以及持续时间均在显著增加,尤其是对于气候变化敏感的长江中下游流域。由于模式本身、温室气体排放情景以及自然变率存在较大的不确定性,因此未来预估变化的不确定性一直备受关注。为了能够得到对于未来极端降水更为准确的预估结果,使用NEX-GDDP（NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections）提供的19个CMIP5降尺度高分辨率数据（0.25°×0.25°）,给出21世纪前期（2016—2035年）长江中下游流域极端降水的可能变化。根据长江中下游流域178个气象站1981—2005年的逐日降水量数据,计算了能够代表极端降水不同特征的指数,在评估模拟能力的基础上给出了21世纪前期RCP4.5情景下极端降水的变化。结果表明,降尺度结果对长江中下游流域极端降水有很好的模拟能力,除R90N外,所有模式模拟其余指数的空间结构与观测的相关系数均超过了0.6。其中所有模式模拟PRCPTOT和R10的相关系数均超过0.95。21世纪前期,长江中下游地区降水趋于极端化,尤其是在流域的西部地区。极端降水日数的变化在减少,表明对于极端降水的贡献主要来自于极端降水日的较大日降水量,而非极端降水日数。未来预估不确定性的大值区主要位于流域的南部地区,流域的西部地区不确定性较低,西部地区极端降水的增加应该受到更多的重视。   相似文献   

新矿物丁道衡矿-（Ce）：珀硅钛铈矿的同质多象体和硅钛铈矿亚族C（1）位上的钛类似矿物   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

徐金沙  杨光明  李国武  邬志亮  沈敢富 《矿物学报》2008,28(3)

丁道衡矿-(Ce):(Ce,La)4Fe2 (Ti,Fe2 ,Mg,Fe3 )2Ti2Si4O22,理想的结构化学式Ce2Ce2Fe2 Ti2Ti2Si4O22单斜晶系,α=1.34656(15)nm,b=0.57356(6)nm,c=1.10977(12)nm,β=100.636(2)°,V=0.84239(46)nm3,空间群P21/a(假C2/m),Z=2.作为硅钛铈矿(chevkinite)族矿物的新成员,它产于举世闻名的白云鄂博铁.稀土.铌矿床镁夕卡岩中,多数单晶体长0.2～1.0 cm,最大者长大于1.5 cm.共生矿物有透辉石、透闪石、钠透闪石、褐帘石-(Ce)、磁铁矿、尖晶石、烧绿石、氟金云母、氟磷灰石、石英和萤石等.矿物具有褐色条痕和半金属一金属光泽的黑色,其褐黑色碎片半透明.性脆、具有贝壳状断口、无解理和裂开.显微硬度(VHN25g)为606.0～717.4 kg/mm/12(相当于摩氏硬度约5.9).矿物实测密度4.83(7)g/cm3,计算密度值4.88(0)g/cm3.丁道衡矿-(ce)的反射色为带灰色的浅黄色,多色性为不同色调的灰色.平均反射率(λ=589nm)为11.4%～12.5%.矿物为二轴晶负光性.作过结构精测的丁道衡矿-(Ce)晶体的电子探针测值:SiO2:19.29,TiO2:18.26,A12O3:0.04,FeO:8.49,Fe2O3,:1.67,ThO2:0.16,MgO:1.32,CaO:2.17,Nb2O5:0.47,Ta2O5:0.00,La2O3:19.53,Ce2O3:28.08,Y2O3:0.00,Na1O:0.01,总量99.46%;其中Fe3 /Fe2 的比值依穆斯堡尔谱换算.根据结构精测每个单位分子式中O=22和C(1)位上Ti优先占位,计算的矿物晶体化学式为(Ce2.13,La1.49Ca0.48Th0 01)Σ4.11Fe2 (Tin0.88Fe2 0.47Mg0.41 Fe0.0)Σ2.03(Ti1.96Nb0 04)Σ2.00(Si2O7)2O3.分别用P21/a和C2/m对丁道衡矿-(Ce)的晶体结构作了精测.结果表明,丁道衡矿-(Ce)的真空间群是P20/a.换言之,它才是真正珀硅钛铈矿[perrierite-(Ce)]的同质多象体.显而易见,硅钛铈矿族矿物既可以有P21/a空间群,又可以有C2/m空间群.  相似文献   

演化晚期恒星星周包层的21μm特征     

张可  姜碧沩  李爱根 《天文学进展》2006,24(1):43-53

21μm特征是指在一些富碳的原行星状星云的红外光谱中波长约20 μm处观测到的一个较宽的发射谱带特征,它是目前星周包层物质研究的热点问题。到目前为止,一共有12个原行星状星云被证认为21μm特征源。此外,还有两个中心是沃尔夫拉叶星的行星状星云也有可能是21 μm特征源。这12个原行星状星云源的21μm特征都有相似的谱线轮廓,峰值都位于20．1μm。这些源的中心星都是富碳的F或G型超巨星,贫金属(却有丰富的慢中子过程元素),有很强的红外色余。在过去10年中,人们提出了大量21 μm特征载体的候选物质,主要有:氢化足球烯 (C60Hm,m=0-60)、多环芳香烃(PAH)、氢化无定形碳(HAC)、纳米金刚石颗粒、合成含碳大分子、氨基化合物(特别是尿素)、铁的氧化物(如:μ-Fe2O3、Fe3O4和FeO)、SiS2、纳米TiC团簇、掺杂的SiC颗粒、表面覆盖SiO2幔的SiC颗粒等。但所有这些候选物质都还没有得到确认。概述了21 μm特征的发现及其后续的相关研究,介绍了21μm特征源的共同特征,比较详细地探讨了人们已提出的该特征载体的候选物质。  相似文献   

Evidence for a large population of shocked interstellar clouds     

V. Radhakrishnan  G. Srinivasan 《Journal of Astrophysics and Astronomy》1980,1(1):47-66

A 21 cm absorption measurement over a long path length free of the effects of differential galactic rotation indicates the existence of two distinct cloud populations in the plane. One of them consisting of cold, dense clouds has been well studied before. The newly found hot clouds appear to be at least five times more numerous. They have a spin temperature of ~ 300 K, an rms velocity of ~ 35 km s^-1, twice the total mass, and hundred times the kinetic energy of the cold clouds. Over long path lengths, the hot clouds haveN _H/kpc ~ 2 X 10²¹ cm^-2 Kpc^-1, and are estimated to have individual column densities ≤ 10²⁰ cm^-2. We propose that they are shocked clouds found only within supernova bubbles and that the cold clouds are found in the regions in-between old remnants, immersed in an intercloud medium. We conclude that the solar neighbourhood must be located between old supernova remnants rather than within one.  相似文献   

多目标的地质大调查 ——21世纪勘查地球化学的战略选择   总被引：12，自引：0，他引：12  

奚小环 《物探与化探》2007,31(4):283-288

21世纪勘查地球化学面临发展问题.2001～2005年勘查地球化学以国家其基础性公益性地质工作为主导,以经济社会发展需求为动力,以资源与环境并重为方针,实施多目标的地质大调查,取得一系列重要成果,标志勘查地球化学进入全面发展阶段.这是勘查地球化学的战略选择.在现代科学技术取得最新成就起点上,构建理论体系、方法体系和质量体系,在各项工作中采取科学态度和积极有效措施,推动勘查地球化学不断达到新的高度.  相似文献   

Open cluster ASCC21 as a probable birthplace of the neutron star Geminga     

V. V. Bobylev  A. T. Bajkova 《Astronomy Letters》2009,35(6):396-405

We analyze the encounters of the neutron star (pulsar) Geminga with open star clusters in the OB association Ori OB1a through the integration of epicyclic orbits into the past by taking into account the errors in the data. The open cluster ASCC21 is shown to be the most probable birthplace of either a single progenitor star for the Geminga pulsar or a binary progenitor system that subsequently broke up. Monte Carlo simulations of Geminga-ASCC21 encounters with the pulsar radial velocity V _r = ?100±50 km s^?1 have shown that close encounters could occur between them within ≤10 pc at about t = ?0.52 Myr. In addition, the trajectory of the neutron star Geminga passes at a distance of ≈25 pc from the center of the compact OB association λ Ori at about t = ?0.39 Myr, which is close to the age of the pulsar estimated from its timing.  相似文献   

Seasonal and spatial characteristics of seawater and sediment at Youngil Bay, southeast coast of Korea   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Lee M  Bae W  Chung J  Jung HS  Shim H 《Marine pollution bulletin》2008,57(6-12):325-334

The seasonal geochemical characteristics of the seawater and sediments and the major factors causing heavy metal contamination were investigated at the Youngil bay and the Hyungsan river estuary in the Southeast Coast of Korea, where a world-scale steel-industry complex (Pohang iron and steel industrial complex, POSCO) is located. The seasonal and spatial distribution characteristics of temperature, dissolved oxygen (DO), pH, and nutrients of the seawater were studied at 45 fixed stations, especially focusing on the river mouth area. Sediments at 27 stations were examined during winter and summer to determine the major controlling factors for the distribution of metals, using correlation matrix and R-mode factor analyses, and to evaluate the pollution status, using the modified geoaccumulation (I(geo)(')) index. Temperatures for the effluent from the POSCO located at the Hyungsan river mouth were 2-3 degrees C higher compared to other sampling areas, due to the thermal discharge from the POSCO. The DO concentration of the surface water at the Pohang old port was as low as 2-4 mg/L. In spring, the DO value at the Hyungsan river mouth was higher than 12 mg/L, by the mass multiplication of phytoplanktons at the river mouth where seawater temperature and nutrients concentrations were relatively high, resulting in the pH value of higher than 8.3. The nitrogen to phosphorus (N/P) ratios at the river mouth were 20-150 times higher compared to other areas, implying that the nitrogen loading into this semi-enclosed bay is significantly higher than phosphorus and the major nitrogen sources are not only the domestic sewage from the city but the industrial wastewater from the POSCO and other steel factories nearby. The phosphorus concentrations at the Pohang old port were shown 3-10 times higher than those at other stations, due to the inflow of pollutants generated from the nearby ships anchoring and the release of phosphate from the bottom sediment. Results from the sediment analysis showed that the major controlling factors for the distribution pattern of each metal are grain size and organic carbon (C(org)) content. Based on the factor analysis, Al, Fe, Cr, Li, and Pb were shown strongly correlated with the mean grain size (Mz), whereas Cd, Cu, Zn, and Sn with the C(org) content. Results from the fractionation of the sedimentary metals into lattice and labile fractions to characterize the mobility of sediment metals showed that the mineral lattice fraction was high in the order of Al=K>Cr>Li>Sr>Fe, while the labile fraction, which might be released to the overlying water, was in the order of Pb>Zn>Cd>Cu>Ca>Sn. Evaluation of the sediment pollution status by applying (I(geo)(')) of 13 metals showed Cd, Cu, and Zn as high as 1-3 range at the old port. Even though the overall marine pollution mainly by the world-class steel industrial complex in this semi-enclosed bay area studied does not currently pose a serious threat, due to the seawater circulation and the large influx of river discharge, the countermeasures to implement the sediments concentrated with heavy metals, especially at the old port with no seawater circulation, are still warranted for this coastal water environment.  相似文献   

VLA observations of 6-cm excited OH     

Patrick Palmer  W. M. Goss  J. B. Whiteoak 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2004,347(4):1164-1172

  相似文献   

大峪沟井田滑动构造研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

徐培  张晶 《中国煤田地质》2007,19(2):11-13

以大峪沟井田构造、二1煤层及其顶、底板砂岩为研究重点,发现整个井田为一大型滑动构造,并分析了该滑动构造的形成条件,指出了滑动构造对煤层赋存的影响规律,为今后类似井田的勘查和开发提供了参考.  相似文献   

Channel change,bankfull and effective discharges on a vertically accreting,meandering, gravel‐bed river     

B. Gomez  S. E. Coleman  V. W. K. Sy  D. H. Peacock  M. Kent 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2007,32(5):770-785

Along the lower reaches of the Waipaoa River, New Zealand, cross‐section survey data indicate there was a 23 per cent decrease in bankfull width and a 22 per cent reduction in channel cross‐section area between 1948 and 2000, as the channel responded to increased inputs of fine (suspended) sediment following deforestation of the headwaters in late C19 and early C20. We determined the bankfull discharge within a ～39 km long reach by routing known discharges through the one‐dimensional MIKE 11 flow model. The model runs suggest that the bankfull discharge varies between ～800 and ～2300 m³ s^?1 and that the average recurrence interval is 4 ± 2 years on the annual maximum series; by contrast, the effective flow (360 m³ s^?1) is equaled or exceeded three times a year. The variability in bankfull discharge arises because the banks tend to be lower in places where flood flows are constricted than in reaches where overbank flow is dispersed over a wide area, and because scour has counteracted aggradation in some locations. There is no downstream variation in Shields stress, or in relative shear stress, within the study reach. Bankfull shear stress is, on average, five times greater than the shear stress required to initiate motion. At the effective discharge it is more than twice the threshold value. The effective discharge probably has more relevance than the bankfull discharge to the overall picture of sediment movement in the lower reaches of the Waipaoa River but, because width is constrained by the stability and resistance of the bank material to erosion during high flows that also scour the bed, the overall channel geometry is likely determined by discharges at or near bankfull. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献