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11.
A comparison of two three-dimensional numerical modeling systems for tidal elevations and velocities in the coastal waters is presented. The two modeling systems are: (1) the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) and (2) the MIKE 3 flow model. The model performance results for Singapore's coastal waters show that the predicted tidal elevations from the two hydrodynamic modeling systems are almost identical and are in very good agreement with field measurement data. The simulated tidal current velocities match well with field measurement data at the selected stations, but it seems that the POM provides the slightly better simulation, compared to the MIKE 3 flow model. The depth profiles of the velocities obtained from the two modeling systems may be greatly different at some time, due to the vertical diffusion coefficient calculated from different turbulent sub-models in the two modeling systems. The POM generally predicts larger peak tidal velocities. The maximum speed differences for the model results from the two modeling systems occur in the top and differ from time to time and from location to location, reaching up to 20%. 相似文献
12.
This paper describes delta development processes with particular reference to Cimanuk Delta in Indonesia. Cimanuk river delta, the most rapidly growing river delta in Indonesia, is located on the northern coast of Java Island. The delta is subject to ocean waves of less than 1 m height due to its position in the semi‐enclosed Java Sea in the Indonesian archipelago. The study has been carried out using a hydrodynamic model that accounts for sediment movement through the rivers and estuaries. As an advanced approach to management of river deltas, a numerical model, namely MIKE‐21, is used as a tool in the management of Cimanuk river delta. From calibration and verification of hydrodynamic model, it was found that the best value of bed roughness was 0·1 m. For the sediment‐transport model, the calibration parameters were adjusted to obtain the most satisfactory results of suspended sediment concentration and volume of deposition. By comparing the computed and observed data in the calibration, the best values of critical bed shear stress for deposition, critical bed shear stress for erosion and erosion coefficient were 0·05 N m?2, 0·15 N m?2, and 0·00001 kg m?2 s?1, respectively. The calibrated model was then used to analyse sensitivity of model parameters and to simulate delta development during the periods 1945–1963 and 1981–1997. It was found that the sensitive model parameters were bed shear stresses for deposition and erosion, while the important model inputs were river suspended sediment concentration, sediment characteristics and hydrodynamic. The model result showed reasonable agreement with the observed data. As evidenced by field data, the mathematical model proves that the Cimanuk river delta is a river‐dominated delta because of its protrusion pattern and very high sediment loads from the Cimanuk river. It was concluded that 86% of sediment load from the Cimanuk river was deposited in the Cimanuk delta. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
13.
A spatially distributed, physically based, hydrologic modeling system (MIKE SHE) was applied to quantify intra‐ and inter‐annual discharge from the snow and glacierized Zackenberg River drainage basin (512 km2; 20% glacier cover) in northeast Greenland. Evolution of snow accumulation, distribution by wind‐blown snow, blowing‐snow sublimation, and snow and ice surface melt were simulated by a spatially distributed, physically based, snow‐evolution modelling system (SnowModel) and used as input to MIKE SHE. Discharge simulations were performed for three periods 1997–2001 (calibration period), 2001–2005 (validation period), and 2071–2100 (scenario period). The combination of SnowModel and MIKE SHE shows promising results; the timing and magnitude of simulated discharge were generally in accordance with observations (R2 = 0·58); however, discrepancies between simulated and observed discharge hydrographs do occur (maximum daily difference up to 44·6 m3 s?1 and up to 9% difference between observed and simulated cumulative discharge). The model does not perform well when a sudden outburst of glacial dammed water occurs, like the 2005 extreme flood event. The modelling study showed that soil processes related to yearly change in active layer depth and glacial processes (such as changes in yearly glacier area, seasonal changes in the internal glacier drainage system, and the sudden release of glacial bulk water storage) need to be determined, for example, from field studies and incorporated in the models before basin runoff can be quantified more precisely. The SnowModel and MIKE SHE model only include first‐order effects of climate change. For the period 2071–2100, future IPCC A2 and B2 climate scenarios based on the HIRHAM regional climate model and HadCM3 atmosphere–ocean general circulation model simulations indicated a mean annual Zackenberg runoff about 1·5 orders of magnitude greater (around 650 mmWE year?1) than from today 1997–2005 (around 430 mmWE year?1), mainly based on changes in negative glacier net mass balance. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
14.
15.
CHEN Guo-jie 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2001,11(4):289-293
ISUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IS UNDER UN-guiding human forward.he author pointed out manyCEASINGCHALLENGES times that sustainable developmentwas a correctstrategic selectlonforhumanfuture and It representedaThe Zlst Century has come,people have many newdevelopmentoutlook,strategic vie呷olntandvalueforecasts and long for a wonde山lprospect.The 21st(CHEN,1997;200a;200b).Century lsa bio-sclentmc era,an economic global-The authoralso pointed out th… 相似文献
16.
快速城市化进程改变了城市地区原有下垫面,不透水层面积增加,暴雨期间汇流时间缩短,洪峰流量加大,进而导致城市内涝加剧,严重影响城市的防洪安全。本研究以广州市南沙区万顷沙网河区为研究对象,基于水量平衡的调蓄演算方法,对研究区域蓄排设施的规模进行分析;构建MIKE11一维网河模型,对涝区水情进行模拟,校核排涝工程规模,并对工程布局与规模进行了优化。结果表明:(1)万顷沙网河区在典型水文组合情况下,内河涌最高水位6.15 m,泵站抽排历时约11 h,抽排流量65 m3·s-1,满足排涝需求;(2)结合片区泵站排水能力,可使片区达到20年一遇24 h暴雨不成灾的规划防洪标准,片区水闸和泵站参数选取合适;(3)在50年一遇超标准情况下,万十涌水位最高约6.33 m,超过片区管控水位,表明当防洪标准提升,片区需合理增设排涝泵站规模,以满足管控水位要求。研究成果可为沿海城市的排涝减灾和实现水系综合整治提供科学依据。 相似文献
17.
Fires and their associated carbon and air pollutant emissions have a broad range of environmental and societal impacts, including negative effects on human health, damage to terrestrial ecosystems, and indirect effects that promote climate change. Previous studies investigated future carbon emissions from the perspective of response to climate change and population growth, but the compound effects of other factors like economic development and land use change are not yet well known. We explored fire carbon emissions throughout the 21st century by changing five factors (meteorology, biomass, land use, population density, and gross domestic product [GDP] per capita). Compared to the historical period (2006–2015), global future fire carbon emissions decreased, mainly caused by an increase in GDP per capita, which leads to improvement in fire management and capitalized agriculture. We found that the meteorological factor has a strong individual effect under higher warming cases. Fires in boreal forests were particularly expected to increase because of an increase in fuel dryness. Our research should help climate change researchers consider fire-carbon interactions. Incorporating future spatial changes under diverse scenarios will be helpful to develop national mitigation and adaptation plans. 相似文献
18.
21世纪中国地质灾害防治形势与减灾战略思考 总被引:9,自引:0,他引:9
张樑 《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2004,15(2):16-21
文章论述了21世纪中国地质灾害减灾面临的形势是既存在许多有利条件又存在多方面困难而面临严重挑战。提出21世纪地质灾害减灾战略:1.建立地质灾害防治安全维护体系;2.优先安排西部地区地质灾害防治工程,实施地质灾害风险管理;3.建立矿山地质灾害防治监督管理体系;4.城市地质灾害防治与土地利用相结合;5.加强我国地质环境监测与网站建设;6.针对地质灾害区域分布规律,采取分区减灾对策;7.加大地质灾害防治投入力度。 相似文献
19.
迎接新世纪铀矿地质科研的新任务 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
文章分析了即将到来的新世纪铀矿地质科研面临的新形势,提出其指导思想应为地质总局主攻可地浸砂岩型铀矿的总方针服务,其具体任务是:加强可地浸砂岩型铀矿的平价和靶区优选研究;开发可地浸砂岩到铀矿勘查的新技术和新方法;把成矿模式攻矿床模式发展为找矿模式;加强铀矿经济地质和铀资源动态评系统研究并建立中新生代盆地和砂岩型铀矿数据库。该工业北京地质研究院作为铀矿地质科研的排头兵,为保障新世纪铀矿地质科研任务的完 相似文献
20.
Soxhlet-extractable organic compounds of sediments from the anoxic brine-filled Tyro basin (eastern Mediterranean) were analyzed by gas chromatography and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. Cholesterol and 22,29,30-trisnorhopan-21-one are the major compounds identified. The occurrence of this triterpenoid ketone, as well as 22,29,30-trisnorhop-6-en-21-one and diplopterol (both tentatively identified), is ascribed to an input of microbiota living at the brine-seawater interface. 相似文献