Research on the Characteristics and Repeatability of Strong Earthquake Activity in Sichuan-Yunnan   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Huang Shengmu  Dong Ruiying 《中国地震研究》2017,31(4):491-512

According to the method for predicting strong earthquakes using seismicity patterns, this paper summarizes the seismicity anomalies, generally called anomalous seismicity patterns, as the basis for prediction based on some historical data in the Sichuan-Yunnan seismic zone. Using our results, it can be confirmed that these anomaly patterns, which reflect the features of the late stage of strong earthquake preparation process and stress release in the main shock rupture zone, did exist before many earthquake cases. This paper also introduced the characteristics of seismic repeatability and its validation result, and discussed the mechanism of repeatability, which will have an application value for strong earthquake tendency prediction.  相似文献   

大气相对湿度资料融合及融合湿度精度检验——基于2013年1月我国中东部地区卫星和探空相对湿度数据     

陶听  牛涛  韩永翔 《气候与环境研究》2016,21(1):29-40

利用2013年1月MODIS(MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer)的大气廓线产品计算得到大气相对湿度廓线,并与探空观测得到的相对湿度资料进行对比,发现总体上MODIS反演的相对湿度高于探空值,且在相对湿度较低区域误差较大;需要剔除有云影响的MODIS数据和相对湿度小于5%的探空数据;用平均值订正法对MODIS数据进行均一性修正,采用直接订正法、最大相关系数法开展MODIS和探空相对湿度资料融合试验,对融合结果进行分析对比和精度检验。结果表明:(1)直接订正法融合湿度在相对湿度较低区域高于探空湿度,在相对湿度较高区域低于探空湿度,最大相关系数法融合湿度在高湿区和低湿区均与探空接近;(2)融合结果精度检验表明,直接订正法融合湿度与探空湿度的平均绝对误差在850 hPa不超过10%,在925 hPa不超过12%,在1000 hPa不超过9%;采用最大相关系数法融合得到的相对湿度值在各层与探空湿度的绝对误差均不超过4%。总体来看最大相关系数法比直接订正法融合效果更好。  相似文献   

中国近海海面高度异常资料再处理   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

陈亚飞  王晓春  刘屹岷 《海洋科学》2016,40(7):151-159

卫星海面高度异常产品再处理的研究多集中在欧洲和美国近海,中国近海尚未有过。在产生AVISO(Archiving Validation and Interpolation of Satellite Oceanographic Data)全球0.25°多颗卫星海面高度异常产品时,只用了1/3~1/2的部分沿轨资料,给区域海洋动力学研究造成了一定的限制。本研究尝试利用多颗卫星的所有沿轨资料及25个测潮站的观测资料,通过最优插值方法产生一份新的中国近海海面高度异常资料。新资料的空间分辨率仍为0.25°,但使用了来自3颗卫星(Jason-1、Jason-2、Cryo Sat-2)的所有沿轨资料及25个测潮站的观测资料。新资料的范围为10°S~50°N、90°~160°E。新资料与AVISO资料的对比分析表明新资料更接近沿轨海面高度异常观测,同时也更接近测潮站资料。与AVISO资料相比,新资料与沿轨海面高度异常观测的均方根误差降低了10.03%,与测潮站资料的均方根误差降低了9.6%。  相似文献   

Geocoding crime and a first estimate of a minimum acceptable hit rate     

Jerry H. Ratcliffe 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(1):61-72

The Fuzzy Kappa statistic expresses the agreement between two categorical raster maps. The statistic goes beyond cell‐by‐cell comparison and gives partial credit to cells based on the categories found in the neighborhood. When matching categories are found at shorter distances the agreement is higher. Like the well‐established Kappa statistic the Fuzzy Kappa statistic expresses the mean agreement relative to the expected agreement. The model underlying the expected agreement assumes absence of spatial autocorrelation in both compared maps. In reality however, spatial autocorrelation does lower the expected agreement as matching categories become less likely to be found close‐by. Since most maps have some degree of spatial autocorrelation, the calculated expected agreement is generally higher than the true expected agreement. This leads to counterintuitive results when maps that appear to have considerable agreement obtain negative Fuzzy Kappa values. Furthermore, the Fuzzy Kappa may be biased, as it systematically attributes lower agreement to maps with stronger spatial autocorrelation. This paper proposes an improved Fuzzy Kappa statistic that is based on the same local agreement and has the same attractive properties as the original Fuzzy Kappa. The novelty is that the new statistic accounts for spatial autocorrelation, such that the expected Fuzzy Kappa for maps that are not cross‐correlated is equal to zero. The improved statistic is applied on two cases to demonstrate its properties.  相似文献   

区域蒸散发遥感估算方法及验证综述   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

张荣华  杜君平  孙睿 《地球科学进展》2012,27(12):1295-1307

蒸散发是地表水热平衡的重要参量,也是农作物生长状况和产量的重要指标。与传统的蒸散发计算方法相比,遥感技术经济、适用、有效,在非均匀下垫面的区域蒸散发监测上具有明显的优越性。系统回顾了5种常用的区域蒸散发遥感估算方法,包括经验统计模型、与传统方法相结合的遥感模型、地表能量平衡模型、温度—植被指数特征空间模型以及陆面过程与数据同化等,分析了这些模型的最新研究进展及各自的优缺点,并对地表蒸散发的地面验证方法进行了概述。最后简要分析了区域蒸散发遥感估算存在的问题,并展望了其未来发展趋势。多源遥感数据协同反演与非遥感参数遥感化、蒸散发模型改进与多模型集成、陆面过程与遥感数据同化、遥感蒸散发估算及地面验证中的尺度问题与空间代表性问题研究等将会是未来区域蒸散发研究中的重点发展方向。  相似文献   

我国东部地区冬季模式边界层探空效果评估   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李耀孙  石春娥  杨军  邓学良  杨元建  吴照宪 《高原气象》2012,31(6):1690-1703

应用中尺度气象模式MM5对2006年和2007年12月东部地区进行逐日模拟,并用地面常规观测资料及南京和安庆12h一次的逐日探空资料对模拟的地面及边界层内气象要素进行检验,计算地面和边界层内不同高度的温度、湿度、风向和风速等要素的多种常用统计参数;并分别评估雾发生前和发生时边界层探空的模拟效果。结果表明:(1)MM5模式模拟的地面温度和湿度均较理想,但风速误差较大。温度、相对湿度、风速的观测与模拟的偏差概率分布均呈近正态分布,峰值中心分别为-1.52℃、4.59%和1.92m·s-1,白天模拟效果优于夜间。(2)以南京、安庆两站为例,模拟的08:00(北京时,下同)和20:00边界层内探空基本可靠,但20:00的效果比08:00好;模拟效果均随高度上升而变好;且南京站边界层内温度、湿度的模拟效果优于安庆站,但安庆站风的模拟效果优于南京站。(3)以南京站为例,雾发生前和发生时温度、湿度模拟效果较平均情况差,风速模拟较其他模拟时段无明显变化。(4)南京、安庆冬季近地层逆温发生频率都比较高,常见多层逆温,MM5模式能再现近地层逆温,但有高估的倾向,且对边界层中上部逆温模拟效果不佳。此外,敏感性试验的结果表明,模拟方案中地面负的温度偏差不是由近地层高垂直分辨率所致。  相似文献   

44 Years Hindcast of the sea level and circulation in the Baltic Sea     

J. Jędrasik  W. Cieślikiewicz  M. Kowalewski  K. Bradtke  A. Jankowski 《Coastal Engineering》2008

The subject of the investigation was the multiyear hindcast of the sea level elevations and currents over the Baltic Sea. The approach follows to the HIPOCAS project conception and contained the 3D hydrodynamic model using boundary conditions from the atmosphere and catchment for 44-year period referring to the second half of the 20th century.  相似文献   

GOALS/LASG模式对气候平均态的模拟   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：3  

吴统文  吴国雄  王在志  宇如聪 《气象学报》2004,62(1):20-30

中国科学院大气物理研究所LASG最近发展了全球海洋 大气 陆面耦合气候模式系统 (GOALS)的新版本 ,实现了全球大气环流谱模式 (R42L9)与海洋环流模式 (T63L3 0 )在 40°S～ 40°N之间的开洋面上海 气通量交换的完全耦合。该模式系统已积分了 40a ,基本上不存在明显的气候漂移。文中通过对所模拟的后 3 0a平均的热带、副热带地区海温、海表风应力、洋面净通量和降水等的气候平均态与多种实测资料的对比分析 ,结果表明 ,GOALS模式基本上模拟再现了当今气候的一些主要特征 ,对热带气候平均态已具有一定的模拟能力 ,但也注意到 ,与观测相比 ,区域性差异是明显存在的 ,比如沿赤道西太平洋“暖池”区和靠近南美沿岸的东太平洋海域以及印度洋海表温度明显偏高约 2℃ ,所模拟的赤道东太平洋海温冷舌西伸明显 ,造成赤道中太平洋海温明显偏冷等偏差。这些模拟误差 ,与模式中海表风应力和洋面所得到或释放的净热通量有密切的关系。SST的模拟误差反过来也影响到对降水的模拟  相似文献   

Validation of Spatial Prediction Models for Landslide Hazard Mapping   总被引：31，自引：13，他引：31  

Chung  Chang-Jo F.  Fabbri  Andrea G. 《Natural Hazards》2003,30(3):451-472

This contribution discusses the problemof providing measures of significance ofprediction results when the predictionswere generated from spatial databases forlandslide hazard mapping. The spatialdatabases usually contain map informationon lithologic units, land-cover units,topographic elevation and derived attributes(slope, aspect, etc.) and the distributionin space and in time of clearly identifiedmass movements. In prediction modelling wetransform the multi-layered databaseinto an aggregation of functional values toobtain an index of propensity of the landto failure. Assuming then that the informationin the database is sufficiently representativeof the typical conditions in which the massmovements originated in space and in time,the problem then, is to confirm the validity ofthe results of some models over otherones, or of particular experiments that seem touse more significant data. A core pointof measuring the significance of a prediction isthat it allows interpreting the results.Without a validation no interpretation is possible,no support of the method or of theinput information can be provided. In particularwith validation, the added value canbe assessed of a prediction either in a fixedtime interval, or in an open-ended time orwithin the confined space of a study area.Validation must be of guidance in datacollection and field practice for landslidehazard mapping.  相似文献   

Turbulence Structures Over The Marginal Ice Zone Under Flow Parallel To The Ice Edge: Measurements And Parameterizations     

C. Drüe  G. Heinemann 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2002,102(1):83-116

Three aircraft-based studies of boundary-layer fronts (BLFs) werecarried out during the experiment KABEG in April 1997 near thesea-ice edge over the Davis Strait. The boundary-layer flow wasparallel to the ice edge and hence two independent turbulent regimescould develop in an identical synoptic framework, separated by thefrontal zone along the ice edge. The zone of strongest crosswindhorizontal gradients was typically 20 km wide, while the downstreamscale of the BLF was observed to be several hundreds of kilometres.For two of the three cases the investigation of turbulence structureswas possible and the results are given herein.Horizontal and vertical profiles of turbulent fluxes and other turbulentquantities are presented. A spectral analysis reveals the coexistence ofsmall-scale turbulence with roll motions. These roll motions can behidden or can be visible as cloud streets. The associated transportmechanisms are highly relevant for the choice of suitable averagingintervals for turbulent flux calculations and model validation.Parameterizations for the vertical velocity variance, countergradienttransport, sea surface roughness and eddy diffusivity are evaluatedand compared for this baroclinic strong-wind convective boundary-layerenvironment. Analogously, drag coefficients and bulk transfer coefficientsare derived from measurements.  相似文献