基于指示和普通克里金的不连续地层厚度估计方法     

李晓军  张振远 《岩土力学》2014,35(10):2881-2887

因为克里金插值方法考虑了样本的空间统计特征而被广泛应用于地层建模。但对于地层尖灭、缺失等不连续地层情况,常用的克里金方法（如普通克里金方法）通常给出较为平滑的地层厚度估计结果,在地层分布边缘的局部范围内与实际情况相差较大。针对不连续地层,提出一种采用指示克里金和普通克里金相结合的地层厚度估计方法。该方法首先采用指示克里金方法估计地层分布范围,然后采用普通克里金方法估计分布范围内的地层厚度,并根据估计标准差来评价地层厚度的不确定性。将提出的方法应用于上海长江隧道的地层建模,通过交叉验证,证明了该方法在地层分布边缘的局部范围内能明显改善地厚度估计结果,标准差降低了15%～18%,得到了比普通克里金和线性插值方法更接近真实情况的地层厚度估计值。  相似文献   

Water quality evaluation in Tidal River reaches of Liaohe River Estuary, China using a revised QUAL2K model     

Hanfeng Ye  Shuhai Guo  Fengmei Li  Gang Li 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2013,23(3):301-311

Rivers in the Liaohe River Estuary area have been seriously polluted by discharges of wastewater containing petroleum pollutants and nutrients. In this paper, The Enhanced Stream Water Quality Model (QUAL2K) and its revised model as well as One-dimensional Tide Mean Model (1D model) were applied to predict and assess the water quality of the tidal river reach of the Liaohe River Estuary. Dissolved oxygen (DO), biochemical oxygen demand (BOD₅), ammonia nitrogen (NH₃-N) and total phosphorus (TP) were chosen as water quality indices in the two model simulations. The modelled results show that the major reasons for degraded rivers remain petroleum and non-point source pollution. Tidal water also has a critical effect on the variation of water quality. The sensitivity analysis identifies that flow rate, point load and diffuse load are the most sensitive parameters for the four water quality indices in the revised QUAL2K simulation. Uncertainty analysis based on a Monte Carlo simulation gives the probability distribution of the four water quality indices at two locations (6.50 km and 44.84 km from the river mouth). The statistical outcomes indicate that the observed data fall within the 90% confidence intervals at all sites measured, and show that the revised QUAL2K gives better results in simulating the water quality of a tidal river.  相似文献   

多边形统计数据空间分析的不确定性研究——以北京市海淀区人口普查数据为例   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

张小虎  钟耳顺  王少华  张珣  张济 《地球信息科学学报》2013,15(3):369-379

普查数据是地理学空间分析的重要数据源。由于受到数据与计算机处理能力的限制,以往的研究对普查数据空间分析的不确定性未给予足够重视,也未形成成熟的研究方法。在建筑物单元的人口普查数据支持下,本文基于多边形统计数据的可塑面积单元问题(Modifiable areal unit problem,MAUP)特征,设计了一种该类数据空间分析不确定性的研究方法,采用不同的尺度(Scale)及分区(Zoning)系统对多边形的统计数据空间分析的准确性进行了分析。实验引入尺度与形态指数,利用可视化分析和数据拟合的研究方法,对尺度及分区对空间分析结果的影响模式进行了模拟。研究结果表明:(1)以统计小区的空间分析,其结果受统计小区空间形态的影响较大,不确定性强,不能充分反映统计数据本身的空间特征;(2)规则格网能较好地保持原始统计数据的空间分布特征,但仍然受尺度及分区影响;(3)规则格网的空间分析结果及其准确性与尺度有较好的拟合关系,不同尺度下的分析结果不确定性是原始数据不同尺度特征的体现;(4)分区效应受空间分析方法的计算尺度影响,两者共同对空间分析结果产生影响。对于固定尺度的规则格网,其邻接多边形数目是分析结果不确定的主要原因。本文研究结果表明,在多边形统计数据空间分析时,应该对其使用规则格网重新聚合,并根据实际应用的需求选择多尺度分析方法,以达到实际应用目的。  相似文献   

Benchmarking observational uncertainties for hydrology: rainfall,river discharge and water quality   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Hilary McMillan  Tobias Krueger  Jim Freer 《水文研究》2012,26(26):4078-4111

This review and commentary sets out the need for authoritative and concise information on the expected error distributions and magnitudes in observational data. We discuss the necessary components of a benchmark of dominant data uncertainties and the recent developments in hydrology which increase the need for such guidance. We initiate the creation of a catalogue of accessible information on characteristics of data uncertainty for the key hydrological variables of rainfall, river discharge and water quality (suspended solids, phosphorus and nitrogen). This includes demonstration of how uncertainties can be quantified, summarizing current knowledge and the standard quantitative results available. In particular, synthesis of results from multiple studies allows conclusions to be drawn on factors which control the magnitude of data uncertainty and hence improves provision of prior guidance on those uncertainties. Rainfall uncertainties were found to be driven by spatial scale, whereas river discharge uncertainty was dominated by flow condition and gauging method. Water quality variables presented a more complex picture with many component errors. For all variables, it was easy to find examples where relative error magnitudes exceeded 40%. We consider how data uncertainties impact on the interpretation of catchment dynamics, model regionalization and model evaluation. In closing the review, we make recommendations for future research priorities in quantifying data uncertainty and highlight the need for an improved ‘culture of engagement’ with observational uncertainties. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

分光光度法测定地下水中六价铬的不确定度评定     

程青  蔡述伟 《火山地质与矿产》2012,(1):67-70

对二苯碳酰二肼分光光度法测地下水中六价铬的不确定度来源进行分析、计算和合成,标准曲线的不确定度采用线性双误差拟合。地下水样品测定结果表明,影响测定结果的不确定度因素主要来源于六价铬标准系列溶液配制和样品的重复测定,对地下水样品中六价铬测定的不确定度作了评估。  相似文献   

基于CMIP5多模式集合资料的中国气温和降水预估及概率分析   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

杨绚  李栋梁  汤绪 《中国沙漠》2014,34(3):795-804

选用国际耦合模式比较计划第五阶段（CMIP5）提供的30个全球大气-海洋耦合模式（AOGCMs）在典型浓度路径（RCPs）情景下气温和降水量的预估结果,采用扰动法,用站点观测资料作为气候背景场替代AOGCM模拟的气候平均,尝试校正气候预估结果的系统性偏差。通过集合方法,用概率的形式给出中国平均气温升高1 ℃,2 ℃和3 ℃以及降水量增加10%,20%和30%概率的空间分布,讨论了中国未来平均气温和降水量可能的变化。结果表明：经过扰动法处理后的气温和降水量预估集合保留了当前气候的局地信息。预估平均气温在中国均有上升,北方地区尤其是青藏高原地区变暖的程度大于南方地区,北方大部分地区平均气温升高的趋势为0.28 ℃/10a。在21世纪初,中国北方地区年平均气温升高1 ℃的可能性超过50%。到了21世纪末期,中国大部分地区平均气温升高2 ℃的可能性超过60%,新疆北部以及青藏高原南部地区气温升高3 ℃的可能性超过50%。预估中国降水量普遍增多,中国北方地区降水量增多的程度要明显大于江淮流域及其以南地区,尤其是西北地区降水量增多非常显著,降水量增多30%的可能性超过70%以上。  相似文献   

某污染场地土壤苯并(a)芘含量的三维估值及不确定性分析   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

陶欢  廖晓勇  阎秀兰  赵丹  马栋  李鹏 《地理研究》2014,33(10):1857-1865

污染场地修复前的准确评估是开展场地修复行动的基础和前提。建立了一套评估污染场地中污染土方量的三维插值方法,采用该方法模拟了某污染场地土壤苯并(a)芘(BaP)含量的空间分布并分析其不确定性。结果表明：场地地下环境中BaP含量数据服从对数正态分布,土壤中污染严重区域分别位于研究区的西南部和北部。通过普通克里格插值得到的BaP浓度超过0.4 mg·kg^-1的污染羽体积为14134 m³,对应的累积概率为0.585。依据给定变差范围值计算,得出现有收集数据对整个场地的描述程度为65%。基于该三维插值方法能准确地反映场地污染物空间分布特征,其不确定性分析可为补充采样布点及精准评估提供参考。  相似文献   

Quantifying the epistemic uncertainty in ground motion models and prediction     

《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2014

The aim of this paper is to compute the ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE)-specific components of epistemic uncertainty, so that they may be better understood and the model standard deviation potentially reduced. The reduced estimate of the model standard deviation may also be more representative of the true aleatory uncertainty in the ground-motion predictions.The epistemic uncertainty due to input variable uncertainty and uncertainty in the estimation of the GMPE coefficients are examined. An enhanced methodology is presented that may be used to analyse their impacts on GMPEs and GMPE predictions. The impacts of accounting for the input variable uncertainty in GMPEs are demonstrated using example values from the literature and by applying the methodology to the GMPE for Arias Intensity. This uncertainty is found to have a significant effect on the estimated coefficients of the model and a small effect on the value of the model standard deviation.The impacts of uncertainty in the GMPE coefficients are demonstrated by quantifying the uncertainty in hazard maps. This paper provides a consistent approach to quantifying the epistemic uncertainty in hazard maps using Monte Carlo simulations and a logic tree framework. The ability to quantify this component of epistemic uncertainty offers significant enhancements over methods currently used in the creation of hazard maps as it is both theoretically consistent and can be used for any magnitude–distance scenario.  相似文献   

Hydrological evaluation of the LPX dynamic global vegetation model for small river catchments in the UK   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

A. M. Ukkola  S. J. Murray 《水文研究》2014,28(4):1939-1950

Assessments of water resources by using macro‐scale models tend to be conducted at the continental or large catchment scale. However, security of freshwater supplies is a local issue and thus necessitates study at such a scale. This research aims to evaluate the suitability of the Land Processes and eXchanges dynamic global vegetation model (LPX‐DGVM) for simulating runoff for small catchments in the UK. Simulated annual and monthly runoff is compared against the National River Flow Archive streamflow observations from 12 catchments of varying size (500–10 000 km²) and climate regimes. Results show that LPX reproduces observed inter‐annual and intra‐annual runoff variability successfully in terms of both flow timings and magnitudes. Inter‐annual variability in flow timings is simulated particularly well (as indicated by Willmott's index of agreement values of ≥0.7 for the majority of catchments), whereas runoff magnitudes are generally slightly overestimated. In the densely populated Thames catchment, these overestimations are partly accounted for by water consumption. Seasonal variability in runoff is also modelled well, as shown by Willmott's index of agreement values of ≥0.9 for all but one catchment. Absence of river routing and storage from the model, in addition to precipitation uncertainties, is also suggested as contributing to simulated runoff discrepancies. Overall, the results show that the LPX‐DGVM can successfully simulate runoff processes for small catchments in the UK. This study offers promising insights into the use of global‐scale models and datasets for local‐scale studies of water resources, with the eventual aim of providing local‐scale projections of future water distributions. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A framework for the seismic assessment of existing masonry buildings accounting for different sources of uncertainty          下载免费PDF全文

M. Rota  A. Penna  G. Magenes 《地震工程与结构动力学》2014,43(7):1045-1066

The current formulation of Eurocode 8 Part 3 and the Italian building code for the seismic assessment of existing buildings accounts for epistemic (knowledge‐based) uncertainties by means of the identification of knowledge levels with associated values of the so‐called confidence factors, applied only as a reduction of material strengths. This formulation does not always produce consistent results and it does not explicitly account for other sources of uncertainty. The paper proposes a probabilistic methodology for the quantification of appropriately defined factors, allowing consideration of the different sources of uncertainty involved in the seismic assessment of masonry buildings by means of nonlinear static analyses. This simple approach, also including an alternative formulation of the confidence factors related with material properties, allows to obtain results which are consistent with the acquired level of knowledge and correctly account for the different sources of uncertainty without requiring to carry out any stochastic nonlinear analysis. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献