铜镍硫化物铼-锇标准物质定值的溯源性讨论及总不确定度评估     

屈文俊  李超  杜安道 《岩矿测试》2011,30(6):664-668

对按国家一级标准物质技术规范研制的铜镍硫化物Re-Os标准物质定值的溯源性及其总不确定度进行讨论与评估。铜镍硫化物标准物质样品采用Carius管溶解,高精度的TRITON同位素质谱仪、MAT-262热电离质谱仪、四极杆等离子体质谱仪、多接收器等离子体质谱仪和高分辨四极杆等离子体质谱仪测量Re、Os含量和Os同位素比值,其中Re-Os含量可以溯源至基准物质,而187Os/188Os同位素比值可以溯源至国际纯粹与应用化学联合会(IUPAC)。在定值数据误差计算时,采用国际通用的ISOPLOT软件利用加权的方法对数据进行处理;在合成总不确定度时,考虑了物质的均匀性和稳定性,同时考虑了稀释剂标定和同位素丰度以及称量误差等影响测定因素的不确定度。标准值的不确定度由三部分组成:第一部分是通过所有参与定值数据,采用ISOPLOT软件,利用加权的方法对数据进行计算处理得到的不确定度;第二部分是物质的均匀性和稳定性的不确定度;第三部分是影响测定其他因素的不确定度。  相似文献   

多模型方法在非点源污染负荷中的应用展望   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

王慧亮  李叙勇  解莹 《水科学进展》2011,22(5):727-732

对非点源污染进行定量化和有效控制的方法是通过非点源污染负荷模型对各类非点源的形成、迁移转化以及负荷量进行模拟。然而,流域非点源污染模型的不确定性是单一模型模拟污染负荷面临的重大挑战。借鉴多模型方法在降低水文模型不确定性方面的优越性,通过分析水文模型与非点源污染模型的相通性,提出多模型方法在非点源污染负荷中应用的基本思路并分析了多模型方法在非点源污染负荷估算中面临的挑战,总结了多模型方法在非点源污染负荷应用中的重点和难点问题。  相似文献   

Modelling Short‐Scale Variability and Uncertainty During Mineral Resource Estimation Using a Novel Fuzzy Estimation Technique     

Khan Muhammad  Hylke J. Glass 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2011,35(3):369-385

For mineral resource assessment, techniques based on fuzzy logic are attractive because they are capable of incorporating uncertainty associated with measured variables and can also quantify the uncertainty of the estimated grade, tonnage etc. The fuzzy grade estimation model is independent of the distribution of data, avoiding assumptions and constraints made during advanced geostatistical simulation, e.g., the turning bands method. Initially, fuzzy modelling classifies the data using all the component variables in the data set. We adopt a novel approach by taking into account the spatial irregularity of mineralisation patterns using the Gustafson–Kessel classification algorithm. The uncertainty at the point of estimation was derived through antecedent memberships in the input space (i.e., spatial coordinates) and transformed onto the output space (i.e., grades) through consequent membership at the point of estimation. Rather than probabilistic confidence intervals, this uncertainty was expressed in terms of fuzzy memberships, which indicated the occurrence of mixtures of different mineralogical phases at the point of estimation. Data from different sources (other than grades) could also be utilised during estimation. Application of the proposed technique on a real data set gave results that were comparable to those obtained from a turning bands simulation.  相似文献   

An Exploration of the Interplay between the Measurement Uncertainty and the Number of Samples in Contaminated Land Investigations     

Katy A. Boon  Peter Rostron  Michael H. Ramsey 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2011,35(3):353-367

In the assessment of potentially contaminated land, the number of samples and the uncertainty of the measurements (including that from sampling) are both important factors in the planning and implementation of an investigation. Both parameters also effect the interpretation of the measurements produced, and the process of making decisions based upon those measurements. However, despite their importance, previously there has been no method for assessing if an investigation is fit‐for‐purpose with respect to both of these parameters. The Whole Site Optimised Contaminated Land Investigation (WSOCLI) method has been developed to address this issue, and to allow the optimisation of an investigation with respect to both the number of samples and the measurement uncertainty, using an economic loss function. This function was developed to calculate an ‘expectation of (financial) loss’, incorporating costs of the investigation itself, subsequent land remediation, and potential consequential costs. To allow the evaluation of the WSOCLI method a computer program ‘OCLISIM’ has been developed to produce sample data from simulated contaminated land investigations. One advantage of such an approach is that as the ‘true’ contaminant concentrations are created by the program, these values are known, which is not the case in a real contaminated land investigation. This enables direct comparisons between functions of the ‘true’ concentrations and functions of the simulated measurements. A second advantage of simulation for this purpose is that the WSOCLI method can be tested on many different patterns and intensities of contamination. The WSOCLI method performed particularly well at high sampling densities producing expectations of financial loss that approximated to the true costs, which were also calculated by the program. WSOCLI was shown to produce notable trends in the relationship between the overall cost (i.e., expectation of loss) and both the number of samples and the measurement uncertainty, which are: (a) low measurement uncertainty was optimal when the decision threshold was between the mean background and the mean hot spot concentrations. (b) When the hot spot mean concentration is equal to or near the decision threshold, then mid‐range measurement uncertainties were optimal. (c) When the decision threshold exceeds the mean of the hot spot, mid‐range measurement uncertainties were optimal. The trends indicate that the uncertainty may continue to rise if the difference between hot spot mean and the decision threshold increases further. (d) In any of the above scenarios, the optimal measurement uncertainty was lower if there is a large geochemical variance (i.e., heterogeneity) within the hot spot. (e) The optimal number of samples for each scenario was indicated by the WSOCLI method, and was between 50 and 100 for the scenarios considered generally; although there was significant noise in the predictions, which needs to be addressed in future work to allow such conclusions to be clearer.  相似文献   

Projecting uncertainty onto marine megafauna trajectories     

Alexander A. Robel  M. Susan Lozier  Steven J. Bograd 《Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers》2011,58(9):915-921

In this study, a method is proposed for estimating the uncertainty of a Lagrangian pathway calculated from an undersampled ocean surface velocity field. The primary motivation and application for this method is the differentiation between active and passive movements for sea turtles whose trajectories are observed with satellite telemetry. Synthetic trajectories are launched within a reconstructed surface velocity field and integrated forward in time to produce likely trajectories of an actual turtle or drifter. Uncertainties in both the initial conditions at launch and the velocity field along the trajectory are used to yield an envelope of possible synthetic trajectories for each actual trajectory. The juxtaposition of the actual trajectory with the resulting cloud of synthetic trajectories provides a means to distinguish between active and passive movements of the turtle. The uncertainty estimates provided by this model may lead to improvements in our understanding of where and when turtles are engaged in specific behaviors (i.e. migration vs. foraging)—for which potential management efforts may vary accordingly.  相似文献   

ISO2394:2015 Annex D (Reliability of Geotechnical Structures)     

K.K. Phoon  J.V. Retief 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2015,9(3):125-127

ISO2394:2015 contains a new informative Annex D on “Reliability of Geotechnical Structures”. The emphasis in Annex D is to identify and characterize critical elements of the geotechnical reliability-based design process, while respecting the diversity of geotechnical engineering practice. This paper highlights the main features of Annex D and gaps for future work.  相似文献   

多尺度表达中线状要素的综合不确定性评价模型     

牛继强  徐丰  秦耀辰 《测绘科学技术学报》2015,(6):640-644

在考虑节点化简的基础上建立了节点数据不确定性评价模型,基于曲线光滑模型建立了线元模型不确定性评价模型,在此基础上,根据不确定性传播律构建了由数据不确定性和模型不确定性合成的线状要素多尺度表达不确定性的综合评价模型。实验表明,综合不确定性指标值作为线状要素多尺度表达不确定性的量化指标是有效的。可将其用于计算线元不确定带的宽度,解决线状要素多尺度表达不确定性空间分析和推理问题;并用于线状要素多尺度表达的质量评价与控制。  相似文献   

Potential impact of future climate change on crop yield in northeastern China   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Mengzi Zhou  Huijun Wang 《大气科学进展》2015,32(7):889-897

We evaluated the potential impact of future climate change on spring maize and single-crop rice in northeastern China(NEC) by employing climate and crop models. Based on historical data, diurnal temperature change exhibited a distinct negative relationship with maize yield, whereas minimum temperature correlated positively to rice yield. Corresponding to the evaluated climate change derived from coupled climate models included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5) under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario(RCP4.5), the projected maize yield changes for three future periods [2010–39(period 1), 2040–69(period 2), and 2070–99(period 3)] relative to the mean yield in the baseline period(1976–2005) were 2.92%, 3.11% and 2.63%, respectively. By contrast, the evaluated rice yields showed slightly larger increases of 7.19%, 12.39%, and 14.83%, respectively. The uncertainties in the crop response are discussed by considering the uncertainties obtained from both the climate and the crop models. The range of impact of the uncertainty became markedly wider when integrating these two sources of uncertainty. The probabilistic assessments of the evaluated change showed maize yield to be relatively stable from period 1 to period 3, while the rice yield showed an increasing trend over time. The results presented in this paper suggest a tendency of the yields of maize and rice in NEC to increase(but with great uncertainty) against the background of global warming, which may offer some valuable guidance to government policymakers.  相似文献   

现行业务湿度传感器测量不确定度研究     

蒋娟萍  卢会国  吴丽娜 《成都信息工程学院学报》2015,30(2)

依据JJF1059.1-2012《测量不确定度评定与表示》,针对自动气象站各要素传感器的测量误差会随时间、温度等环境因素的变化而发生漂移.为确保观测数据的准确、可靠,以CP340恒温恒湿箱为湿度发生环境、采用英国michell公司的Optidew Vision精密露点仪为标准器,介绍了利用HMP155A温湿度传感器进行湿度测量不确定度评定的一般方法和详细步骤.最后给出一个评定实例,在温度为22℃和40℃,相对湿度为30％ RH～75％RH时,通过对测量不确定度的各分量进行分析和计算,得到HMP155A温湿度传感器测量结果的扩展不确定度分别为1.50％和1.46％.  相似文献   

A review of the assessments of the major fisheries resources in South Africa     

CL de Moor  SJ Johnston  A Brandão  RA Rademeyer  JP Glazer  LB Furman 《African Journal of Marine Science》2015,37(3):285-311

The waters off South Africa's coastline boast a rich mix of commercially fished species. Quantitative assessments of these marine resources have developed from simple methods first applied in the 1970s, to models that encompass a wide range of methodologies. The more valuable resources have undergone regular assessments in recent decades, with frequencies closely related to the management approach employed for each fishery. Many of these assessments form the operating models used to simulation-test candidate management procedures. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the assessments of 11 of the most important fisheries resources in South Africa. Some assessments use simple biomass dynamics models, whereas others are a hybrid of age- and length-based models, each designed to model the specific characteristics of the resource and fishery concerned. Many of the assessments have been disaggregated by species/stock and/or area as related multispecies/stock/ distribution hypotheses have arisen. This paper explores the similarities and differences in the data available and the methods applied. The review indicates that, whereas the status of three of these resources cannot be estimated reliably at present, the status of six resources is considered to be reasonable to good, whereas that of abalone Haliotis midae and West Coast rock lobster Jasus lalandii remains poor.  相似文献