Uncertainty analysis of soil-pile interactions of monopile offshore wind turbine support structures     

《Applied Ocean Research》2019

The objective of this work is to study the uncertainties involved in the modelling of the soil-pile interaction concerning their influence on the prediction of the dynamic structural response of monopile offshore wind turbine support structures. Two main issues are identified and addressed: the adequacy of the method used to deal with the soil-pile interactions and the adequacy of the soil properties reflecting the behaviour of the soil. The present study develops an approach that defines the penetrated pile length depending on the soil profile. Also, a parameter is defined to avoid the excessive usage of steel for the penetrated pile structure. The uncertainties are included in the probabilistic free vibration analysis and the contribution of each random variable to the scatter of the response is estimated by performing a sensitivity analysis. The results indicate that the uncertainty involved in the modelling of the soil profile has a significant effect on the coefficient of variance of the natural frequency, which is a serious issue to be considered in the fatigue life assessment of offshore wind turbine support structures.  相似文献   

江河入海流量在线监测不确定度评估方法研究与应用     

杨永俊  胡展铭  林忠胜  王玉 《海洋通报》2019,(3)

鉴于国内目前缺少流量在线监测不确定性评估方面的研究,针对江河入海流量在线监测过程中可能产生的各种不确定性,本文采用不确定度概念对不确定性进行评估,给出了不确定度的主要来源、各来源不确定度的评估方法,以及江河入海流量在线监测总不确定度评估模型,并应用该模型对辽河入海流量在线监测的不确定度进行了评估。  相似文献   

Spatio‐temporal variability of the isotopic input signal in a partly forested catchment: Implications for hydrograph separation     

Carles Cayuela  Jrme Latron  Josie Geris  Pilar Llorens 《水文研究》2019,33(1):36-46

The isotopic composition of precipitation (D and ¹⁸O) has been widely used as an input signal in water tracer studies. Whereas much recent effort has been put into developing methodologies to improve our understanding and modelling of hydrological processes (e.g., transit‐time distributions or young water fractions), less attention has been paid to the spatio‐temporal variability of the isotopic composition of precipitation, used as input signal in these studies. Here, we investigated the uncertainty in isotope‐based hydrograph separation due to the spatio‐temporal variability of the isotopic composition of precipitation. The study was carried out in a Mediterranean headwater catchment (0.56 km²). Rainfall and throughfall samples were collected at three locations across this relatively small catchment, and stream water samples were collected at the outlet. Results showed that throughout an event, the spatial variability of the input signal had a higher impact on hydrograph separation results than its temporal variability. However, differences in isotope‐based hydrograph separation determined preevent water due to the spatio‐temporal variability were different between events and ranged between 1 and 14%. Based on catchment‐scale isoscapes, the most representative sampling location could also be identified. This study confirms that even in small headwater catchments, spatio‐temporal variability can be significant. Therefore, it is important to characterize this variability and identify the best sampling strategy to reduce the uncertainty in our understanding of catchment hydrological processes.  相似文献   

Effect of rainfall uncertainty on the performance of physically based rainfall–runoff models     

Ignacio Fraga  Luis Cea  Jernimo Puertas 《水文研究》2019,33(1):160-173

This paper analyses the effect of rain data uncertainty on the performance of two hydrological models with different spatial structures: a semidistributed and a fully distributed model. The study is performed on a small catchment of 19.6 km² located in the north‐west of Spain, where the arrival of low pressure fronts from the Atlantic Ocean causes highly variable rainfall events. The rainfall fields in this catchment during a series of storm events are estimated using rainfall point measurements. The uncertainty of the estimated fields is quantified using a conditional simulation technique. Discharge and rain data, including the uncertainty of the estimated rainfall fields, are then used to calibrate and validate both hydrological models following the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) methodology. In the storm events analysed, the two models show similar performance. In all cases, results show that the calibrated distribution of the input parameters narrows when the rain uncertainty is included in the analysis. Otherwise, when rain uncertainty is not considered, the calibration of the input parameters must account for all uncertainty in the rainfall–runoff transformation process. Also, in both models, the uncertainty of the predicted discharges increase in similar magnitude when the uncertainty of rainfall input increase.  相似文献   

Water quality modeling and sensitivity analysis using Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program (WASP) in the Shenandoah River watershed     

Mbongowo J. Mbuh  Richard Mbih  Comfort Wendi 《自然地理学》2019,40(2):127-148

This study used the Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program (WASP) to simulate nutrients, dissolved oxygen (DO), and chlorophyll-a dynamics in the Shenandoah River basin and performed an uncertainty analysis to examine the complexity of these variables in water quality estimation and their influence on the Shenandoah River. Significant progress has been made; however, nutrient loads emitted into the Shenandoah River from nonpoint sources remain high. Modeling of three points on the Shenandoah River in Virginia and West Virginia provides an ideal case study since the river is classified by the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality as being impaired. The results of a sensitivity test show that model error decreases with increasing model complexity and sensitivity. The model predicted DO values that tended to be close to the measured data, while total nitrogen and phosphorus tended to be overemphasized. Our results examine the importance of temperature, stream flow, and velocity in influencing water quality between seasons and levels on the different sections of the watershed.  相似文献   

A discontinuous finite element suspended sediment transport model for water quality assessments in river networks          下载免费PDF全文

Fabricio Fiengo Pérez  Lieve Sweeck  Marc Elskens  Willy Bauwens 《水文研究》2017,31(9):1804-1816

Suspended sediment plays an important role in the distribution and transport of many pollutants (such as radionuclides) in rivers. Pollutants may adsorb on fine suspended particles (e.g. clay) and spread according to the suspended sediment movement. Hence, the simulation of the suspended sediment mechanism is indispensable for realistic transport modelling. This paper presents and tests a simple mathematical model for predicting the suspended sediment transport in river networks. The model is based on the van Rijn suspended load formula and the advection–diffusion equation with a source or sink term that represents the erosion or deposition fluxes. The transport equation is solved numerically with the discontinuous finite element method. The model evaluation was performed in two steps, first by comparing model simulations with the measured suspended sediment concentrations in the Grote Nete–Molse Nete River in Belgium, and second by a model intercomparison with the sediment transport model NST MIKE 11. The simulations reflect the measurements with a Nash‐Sutcliffe model efficiency of 0.6, while the efficiency between the proposed model and the NST MIKE 11 simulations is 0.96. Both evaluations indicate that the proposed sediment transport model, that is sufficiently simple to be practical, is providing realistic results.  相似文献   

Effects of temporal scales and space mismatches on the TRMM 3B42 v7 precipitation product in a remote mountainous area          下载免费PDF全文

Shiva Ebrahimi  Cheng Chen  Qiuwen Chen  Yinsheng Zhang  Ning Ma  Qammerul Zaman 《水文研究》2017,31(24):4315-4327

The accurate measurement of precipitation is essential to understanding regional hydrological processes and hydrological cycling. Quantification of precipitation over remote regions such as the Tibetan Plateau is highly unreliable because of the scarcity of rain gauges. The objective of this study is to evaluate the performance of the satellite precipitation product of tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM) 3B42 v7 at daily, weekly, monthly, and seasonal scales. Comparison between TRMM grid precipitation and point‐based rain gauge precipitation was conducted using nearest neighbour and bilinear weighted interpolation methods. The results showed that the TRMM product could not capture daily precipitation well due to some rainfall events being missed at short time scales but provided reasonably good precipitation data at weekly, monthly, and seasonal scales. TRMM tended to underestimate the precipitation of small rainfall events (less than 1 mm/day), while it overestimated the precipitation of large rainfall events (greater than 20 mm/day). Consequently, TRMM showed better performance in the summer monsoon season than in the winter season. Through comparison, it was also found that the bilinear weighted interpolation method performs better than the nearest neighbour method in TRMM precipitation extraction.  相似文献   

Stage‐discharge uncertainty derived with a non‐stationary rating curve in the Choluteca River,Honduras     

I. Westerberg  J.‐L. Guerrero  J. Seibert  K. J. Beven  S. Halldin 《水文研究》2011,25(4):603-613

Uncertainty in discharge data must be critically assessed before data can be used in, e.g. water resources estimation or hydrological modelling. In the alluvial Choluteca River in Honduras, the river‐bed characteristics change over time as fill, scour and other processes occur in the channel, leading to a non‐stationary stage‐discharge relationship and difficulties in deriving consistent rating curves. Few studies have investigated the uncertainties related to non‐stationarity in the stage‐discharge relationship. We calculated discharge and the associated uncertainty with a weighted fuzzy regression of rating curves applied within a moving time window, based on estimated uncertainties in the observed rating data. An 18‐year‐long dataset with unusually frequent ratings (1268 in total) was the basis of this study. A large temporal variability in the stage‐discharge relationship was found especially for low flows. The time‐variable rating curve resulted in discharge estimate differences of ? 60 to + 90% for low flows and ± 20% for medium to high flows when compared to a constant rating curve. The final estimated uncertainty in discharge was substantial and the uncertainty limits varied between ? 43 to + 73% of the best discharge estimate. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Uncertainty in modelling of faecal coliform overland transport associated with manure application in Maryland     

A. K. Guber  Y. A. Pachepsky  A. M. Yakirevich  D. R. Shelton  A. M. Sadeghi  D. C. Goodrich  C. L. Unkrich 《水文研究》2011,25(15):2393-2404

Concerns for microbial safety of surface water facilitate development of predictive models that estimate concentrations and total numbers of pathogen and indicator organisms leaving manure‐fertilized fields in overland flow during runoff events. Spatial variability of bacterial concentrations in applied manure introduces high uncertainty in the model predictions. The objective of this work was to evaluate the uncertainty in model predictions of the manure‐borne bacteria overland transport caused by limited information on the spatial distribution of bacteria in surface‐applied manure. Experiments were carried out at the ARS Beltsville experimental watershed site (OPE3) in Maryland. Dairy bovine manure was applied at a 59·3 t/ha rate on the 3·55 hectare experimental field. Faecal coliform (FC) concentrations in manure measured in 2004, 2005, 2007, and 2009 varied by 4 orders of magnitude each year. Both runoff volume and FC concentrations in runoff water were monitored using a runoff flume equipped with a refrigerated pump sampler. Two runoff events occurred before the manure was incorporated into the soil. A bacteria transport add‐on module simulator of transport with infiltration and runoff (STWIR) was linked with the event‐based kinematic runoff and erosion model (KINEROS2) to simulate convective‐dispersive overland transport, bacteria release from manure, reversible attachment–detachment to soil, and surface straining of infiltrating bacteria. The model was successfully calibrated with the field experiment data. Monte Carlo simulations were carried out to account for the spatial variation in FC in applied manure and uncertainty in the FC distribution in manure caused by the small number of samples. A tenfold and twofold variation in FC concentrations in the runoff were obtained within the 90% probability interval when initial FC spatial distributions in the manure were represented by 5 and 29 samples, respectively. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Input data resolution‐induced uncertainty in watershed modelling     

Abhijit Patil  Zhi‐Qiang Deng  Ronald F. Malone 《水文研究》2011,25(14):2302-2312

The temporal‐spatial resolution of input data‐induced uncertainty in a watershed‐based water quality model, Hydrologic Simulation Program‐FORTRAN (HSPF), is investigated in this study. The temporal resolution‐induced uncertainty is described using the coefficient of variation (CV). The CV is found to decrease with decreasing temporal resolution and follow a log‐normal relation with time interval for temperature data while it exhibits a power‐law relation for rainfall data. The temporal‐scale uncertainties in the temperature and rainfall data follow a general extreme value distribution and a Weibull distribution, respectively. The Nash‐Sutcliffe coefficient (NSC) is employed to represent the spatial resolution induced uncertainty. The spatial resolution uncertainty in the dissolved oxygen and nitrate‐nitrogen concentrations simulated using HSPF is observed to follow a general extreme value distribution and a log‐normal distribution, respectively. The probability density functions (PDF) provide new insights into the effect of temporal‐scale and spatial resolution of input data on uncertainties involved in watershed modelling and total maximum daily load calculations. This study exhibits non‐symmetric distributions of uncertainty in water quality modelling, which simplify weather and water quality monitoring and reducing the cost involved in flow and water quality monitoring. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献