Tropical cyclone genesis potential index over the western North Pacific simulated by CMIP5 models     

Yajuan Song  Lei Wang  Xiaoyan Lei  Xidong Wang 《大气科学进展》2015,32(11):1539-1550

Tropical cyclone(TC) genesis over the western North Pacific(WNP) is analyzed using 23 CMIP5(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models and reanalysis datasets. The models are evaluated according to TC genesis potential index(GPI). The spatial and temporal variations of the GPI are first calculated using three atmospheric reanalysis datasets(ERA-Interim, NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis-1, and NCEP/DOE Reanalysis-2). Spatial distributions of July–October-mean TC frequency based on the GPI from ERA-interim are more consistent with observed ones derived from IBTr ACS global TC data. So, the ERA-interim reanalysis dataset is used to examine the CMIP5 models in terms of reproducing GPI during the period 1982–2005. Although most models possess deficiencies in reproducing the spatial distribution of the GPI, their multimodel ensemble(MME) mean shows a reasonable climatological GPI pattern characterized by a high GPI zone along 20?N in the WNP. There was an upward trend of TC genesis frequency during 1982 to 1998, followed by a downward trend. Both MME results and reanalysis data can represent a robust increasing trend during 1982–1998, but the models cannot simulate the downward trend after 2000. Analysis based on future projection experiments shows that the GPI exhibits no significant change in the first half of the 21 st century, and then starts to decrease at the end of the 21 st century under the representative concentration pathway(RCP) 2.6 scenario. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the GPI shows an increasing trend in the vicinity of20?N, indicating more TCs could possibly be expected over the WNP under future global warming.  相似文献   

Parallel comparison of the northern winter stratospheric circulation in reanalysis and in CMIP5 models   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Jian Rao  Rongcai Ren  Yang Yang 《大气科学进展》2015,32(7):952-996

A parallel comparison is made of the circulation climatology and the leading oscillation mode of the northern winter stratosphere among six reanalysis products and 24 CMIP5(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models. The results reveal that the NCEP/NCAR, NECP/DOE, ERA40, ERA-Interim and JRA25 reanalyses are quite consistent in describing the climatology and annual cycle of the stratospheric circulation. The 20 CR reanalysis, however, exhibits a remarkable"cold pole" bias accompanied by a much stronger stratospheric polar jet, similar as in some CMIP5 models. Compared to the1–2 month seasonal drift in most coupled general circulation models(GCMs), the seasonal cycle of the stratospheric zonal wind in most earth system models(ESMs) agrees very well with reanalysis. Similar to the climatology, the amplitude of Polar Vortex Oscillation(PVO) events also varies among CMIP5 models. The PVO amplitude in most GCMs is relatively weaker than in reanalysis, while that in most of the ESMs is more realistic. In relation to the "cold pole" bias and the weaker oscillation in some CMIP5 GCMs, the frequency of PVO events is significantly underestimated by CMIP5 GCMs; while in most ESMs, it is comparable to that in reanalysis. The PVO events in reanalysis(except in 20CR) mainly occur from mid-winter to early spring(January–March); but in some of the CMIP5 models, a 1–2 month delay exists, especially in most of the CMIP5 GCMs. The long-term trend of the PVO time series does not correspond to long-term changes in the frequency of PVO events in most of the CMIP5 models.  相似文献   

Comparison of dryland climate change in observations and CMIP5 simulations   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Mingxia Ji  Jianping Huang  Yongkun Xie  Jun Liu 《大气科学进展》2015,32(11):1565-1574

A comparison of observations with 20 climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase5(CMIP5) revealed that observed dryland expansion amounted to 2.61 × 106km2 during the 58 years from 1948 to 2005,which was four times higher than that in the simulations(0.55 × 106km2). Dryland expansion was accompanied by a decline in aridity index(AI)(drying trend) as a result of decreased precipitation and increased potential evapotranspiration across all dryland subtype areas in the observations, especially in the semi-arid and dry subhumid regions. However, the CMIP5multi-model ensemble(MME) average performed poorly with regard to the decreasing trends of AI and precipitation. By analyzing the factors controlling AI, we found that the overall bias of AI in the simulations, compared with observations, was largely due to limitations in the simulation of precipitation. The simulated precipitation over global drylands was substantially overestimated compared with observations across all subtype areas, and the spatial distribution of precipitation in the MME was largely inconsistent in the African Sahel, East Asia, and eastern Australia, where the semi-arid and dry subhumid regions were mainly located.  相似文献   

1981—2013年6—7月江淮地区切变线及暴雨统计分析     

马嘉理  姚秀萍 《气象学报》2015,73(1):883-894

利用第5次耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)提供的39个全球气候模式模拟的1961—2005年逐月500 hPa位势高度场资料,以及同期美国国家环境预测中心再分析资料,通过经验正交函数分解提取主要模态,基于泰勒图方法、概率密度函数的Brier评分和显著性评分指标,探讨CMIP5模式对东亚500 hPa高度场主要模态时空结构的模拟能力,寻求具有较好东亚环流型态模拟能力的气候模式以及模拟较好的主模态。结果表明:(1) CMIP5模式能够模拟出东亚500 hPa高度场主要模态,且各模式对冬季主要模态时空结构的模拟能力都高于夏季。(2) 各模式对冬季模态(西太平洋遥相关型)模拟能力最强,第3模态最差,对冬季主要模态空间结构模拟较好的模式为IPSL-CM5B-LR、MPI-ESM-P、CMCC-CMS、FGOALS-g2、HadGEM2-ES;夏季第1模态空间结构模拟能力最强,其次分别为第2模态和东亚-太平洋型(简记第3模态),西太平洋遥相关型较差,对夏季主要模态空间结构模拟较好的模式为ECEARTH、CanESM2、CMCC-CM、GFDL-ESM2G、IPSL-CM5A-MR。(3)对主要模态时间系数概率密度函数特征的模拟评估表明,模式对冬季第2模态概率密度函数的模拟较好,其次为西太平洋遥相关型,其主要模态时间系数的概率密度函数模拟较好的模式为CESM1-FASTCHEM、HadGEM2-ES、INM-CM4、GISS-E2-H、BCC-CSM1-1;模式对夏季第2模态时间系数的概率密度函数模拟较好,其次分别为第3模态、西太平洋遥相关型,其主要模态时间系数概率密度函数模拟较好的模式为CCSM4、HadGEM2-CC、GFDL-CM3、MRI-CGCM3、NorESM1-M。(4)综合时空结构模式模拟能力,对冬季主要模态模拟较好的前5个模式为HadGEM2-ES、IPSL-CM5B-LR、CESM1-FASTCHEM、INM-CM4、BCC-CSM1-1;夏季前5个模式为ECEARTH、CMCC-CM、CCSM4、CANESM2、MIROC5。  相似文献   

新疆风区下垫面动力学粗糙度估测值与模式定义值的对比          下载免费PDF全文

辛渝  周颖真  宋丽莉  姜海梅 《大气科学学报》2015,38(6):811-818

按风向风速标准差法估算了新疆风能资源详查区17座测风塔一定范围内的动力学粗糙度,并与期间利用的3 km和1 km分辨率的数值模式中的动力学粗糙度理论定义值进行了对比。结果表明:除了采用的landuse基数据在一些区域的错误判识而导致本研究的估测值与中、小尺度模式中的动力学粗糙度理论定义值有较大差别外,大多数比较接近,今后有必要对这些区域的landuse的分类进行客观订正;夏季强风区的动力学粗糙度估测值普遍小于中尺度模式的理论定义值;对于主、次风向上动力学粗糙度值极不均匀区域,风向与风速标准差估算法需结合使用;本研究估算的动力学粗糙度是在中性层结条件下进行的,对于中性层结条件较少发生的区域,该动力学粗糙度估算值的普适性将受到限制。  相似文献   

5-HT对马氏珠母贝卵体外促熟的影响及5-HT受体的细胞学定位   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

王琦  何毛贤 《海洋通报》2015,34(1):89-94

研究了5-羟色胺(5-HT)对马氏珠母贝解剖获得卵母细胞的促熟作用及5-HT受体(5-HTpf)在其性腺中的分布情况。通过体外浸泡的方法处理马氏珠母贝卵母细胞使其成熟,结果表明一定浓度的5-HT可显著促使马氏珠母贝卵母细胞生发泡破裂,并使已经发生生发泡破裂的卵母细胞进一步成熟,同时可诱导5-HT受体基因的表达。用原位杂交的方法对5-HT受体在马氏珠母贝性腺中的分布的研究结果揭示,卵巢中次级卵母细胞和卵细胞均存在5-HT受体,有阳性信号出现;精巢中仅滤泡壁及精母细胞中有少量表达。以上结果表明马氏珠母贝的卵母细胞不仅能产生5-HT并且可表达5-HT受体。  相似文献   

基于不同降水产品的WRF-Hydro模式径流模拟——以漳河流域为例     

高玉芳  吴雨晴  彭涛  顾天威 《热带气象学报》2020,36(3):299-306

以漳河流域为研究区域,以CMORPH卫星-地面自动站-雷达三源降水融合数据和ERA5再分析降水资料为WRF-Hydro模式的输入,进行径流模拟,对比分析模拟径流与实测径流的差异,探讨基于两种降水数据的WRF-Hydro模式在漳河流域的径流模拟效果。结果表明:三源降水融合数据的径流模拟效果较优,纳什系数均达到0.7以上,模拟径流与实测径流过程吻合较好;采用三源降水融合数据和ERA5再分析降水资料率定WRF-Hydro模式,以ERA5再分析降水资料为输入,径流模拟结果都不佳;总体而言,三源降水融合数据与WRF-Hydro模式耦合能够较好地模拟漳河流域径流过程。   相似文献   

Projection of the East Asian westerly jet under six global warming targets          下载免费PDF全文

FU Yuanhai  GUO Dong 《大气和海洋科学快报》2020,(2):129-135

东亚高空急流(简称急流)对夏季东亚地区的天气和气候有着重要影响。本文利用CMIP5的历史气候模拟试验和RCP8.5路径下的未来气候变化预估试验数据,预估了急流在6个全球变暖阈值(1.5℃,2.0℃,2.5℃,3.0℃,3.5℃和4.0℃)下相对于当代气候的变化情况。结果表明东亚高空西风在1.5℃阈值下略微减弱。在2.0℃阈值下,西风在急流轴(约40°N)南侧增强,北侧减弱。这种变化趋势在2.5℃和更高的变暖阈值下愈加明显,使急流轴逐渐向南移动,但急流强度变化不大。研究表明,在急流的入口和出口区,对流层中上层大气升温速度相对较慢,导致在急流轴南(北)侧出现向南(北)的负(正)经向温度梯度,使西风在南(北)侧增强(减弱).  相似文献   

微乳液介质—DBH-PF光度法测定食品中微量锗的研究     

邓春梅  康信煌 《广东海洋大学学报》2000,20(3):56-59

以阳离子型 O/ W CTMAB/ n- C5H11OH/ n- C7H16/ H2 O微乳液为介质 ,进行 Ge( IV) - DBH- PF的分光光度法测定 ,ε510 nm=2 .18× 10 5L· mol-1.cm-1,建立了高灵敏测定食品中微量锗的新方法 ,锗量在每 2 5m L 0～ 7.0μg范围内符合比尔定律 ,方法选择性好 ,试样无需萃取分离 ,可快速测定  相似文献   

3,5-二溴-4-偶氮变色酸苯基荧光酮与铝显色反应及应用     

黄应平  张华山  黎心懿 《岩矿测试》1997,(4):293-295

研究了在阳离子表面活性剂ＣＴＭＡＢ存在下，Ａｌ（Ⅲ）与３，５＿二溴＿４＿偶氮变色酸苯基荧光酮（ＤＢＡＣＰＦ）的显色反应条件和光度性质。在ｐＨ６０的ＨＡｃ＿ＮａＡｃ缓冲介质中，Ａｌ（Ⅲ）与试剂形成１∶２的红色配合物，最大吸收峰位于５６０ｎｍ处，表观摩尔吸光系数为１２５×１０５Ｌ·ｍｏｌ－１·ｃｍ－１，Ａｌ（Ⅲ）的质量浓度为０～０２ｍｇ／Ｌ时符合比尔定律。拟定方法用于铝黄铜及石灰石样品中铝的测定，结果与标准值相符。  相似文献