基于小波变换与神经网络的石羊河流域夏季地温预测模型研究   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

贾东于  李开明  聂晓英  袁春霞  李清峰  高福元 《冰川冻土》2020,42(2):412-422

地温变化在气候反馈效应中起着重要作用， 理解地温及其与影响因素之间的时空关系对预测全球温度变化至关重要。利用1998 - 2017年石羊河流域的逐日常规气象观测资料， 采用小波分析结合BP（Back Propagation）神经网络构建了石羊河流域夏季地温预报模型， 结果表明： 日平均地温预测效果在不同站点均为最佳， 其中预测值和观测值的相关系数均大于0.87， 3 ℃以内的预测概率均大于84%。其中， 民勤地区地温预测效果最好， 预测值和观测值的相关系数达到0.91， 3 ℃以内的预测概率达到86%。日最高地温的预测值与观测值的相关系数高于0.8， 但误差平方和、 标准差较大。永昌地区日最高地温的模拟效果最好， 3 ℃以内的预测概率达到83%。日最低地温的预测与观测值的平均相关系数高于0.66， 3 ℃以内的预报概率高于83%， 但预测值略低。其中， 武威地区日最低地温的预测效果最好， 预测值与观测值的相关系数为0.72， 3 ℃以内的预测概率达到94%。研究成果可为有效弥补干旱、 半干旱区地温观测资料缺失和探讨其与局地气候的关系提供一些参考。  相似文献   

Finite-difference model of land subsidence caused by cluster loads in Zhengzhou,China          下载免费PDF全文

ZHAO Yue-wen  WANG Xiu-yan  LIU Chang-li  LI Bing-yan 《地下水科学与工程》2020,8(1):43-56

Groundwater exploitation has been regarded as the main reason for land subsidence in China and thus receives considerable attention from the government and the academic community.Recently,building loads have been identified as another important factor of land subsidence,but researches in this sector have lagged.The effect of a single building load on land subsidence was neglected in many cases owing to the narrow scope and the limited depth of the additional stress in stratum.However,due to the superposition of stresses between buildings,the additional stress of cluster loads is greater than that of a single building load under the same condition,so that the land subsidence caused by cluster loads cannot be neglected.Taking Shamen village in the north of Zhengzhou,China,as an example,a finite-difference model based on the Biot consolidation theory to calculate the land subsidence caused by cluster loads was established in this paper.Cluster loads present the characteristics of large-area loads,and the land subsidence caused by cluster loads can have multiple primary consolidation processes due to the stress superposition of different buildings was shown by the simulation results.Pore water migration distances are longer when the cluster loads with high plot ratio are imposed,so that consolidation takes longer time.The higher the plot ratio is,the deeper the effective deformation is,and thus the greater the land subsidence is.A higher plot ratio also increases the contribution that the deeper stratigraphic layers make to land subsidence.Contrary to the calculated results of land subsidence caused by cluster loads and groundwater recession,the percentage of settlement caused by cluster loads in the total settlement was 49.43%and 55.06%at two simulated monitoring points,respectively.These data suggest that the cluster loads can be one of the main causes of land subsidence.  相似文献   

Seismic‐stratigraphic constraints on the age of the Faroe Islands Basalt Group,Faroe–Shetland region,Northeast Atlantic Ocean     

Jana lavsdttir  Martyn S. Stoker  Lars O. Boldreel  Morten Sparre Andersen   luva R. Eidesgaard 《Basin Research》2019,31(5):841-865

Lower Palaeogene extrusive igneous rocks of the Faroe Islands Basalt Group (FIBG) dominate the Faroese continental margin, with flood basalts created at the time of breakup and separation from East Greenland extending eastwards into the Faroe‐Shetland Basin. This volcanic succession was emplaced in connection with the opening of the NE Atlantic; however, consensus on the age and duration of volcanism remains lacking. On the Faroe Islands, the FIBG comprises four main basaltic formations (the pre‐breakup Lopra and Beinisvørð formations, and the syn‐breakup Malinstindur and Enni formations) locally separated by thin intrabasaltic sedimentary and/or volcaniclastic units. Offshore, the distribution of these formations remains ambiguous. We examine the stratigraphic framework of these rocks on the Faroese continental margin combining onshore (published) outcrop information with offshore seismic‐reflection and well data. Our results indicate that on seismic‐reflection profiles, the FIBG can be informally divided into lower and upper seismic‐stratigraphic packages separated by the strongly reflective A‐horizon. The Lower FIBG comprises the Lopra and Beinisvørð formations; the upper FIBG includes the Malinstindur and Enni formations. The strongly reflecting A‐horizon is a consequence of the contrast in properties of the overlying Malinstindur and underlying Beinisvørð formations. Onshore, the A‐horizon is an erosional surface, locally cutting down into the Beinisvørð Formation; offshore, we have correlated the A‐horizon with the Flett unconformity, a highly incised, subaerial unconformity, within the juxtaposed and interbedded sedimentary fill of the Faroe‐Shetland Basin. We refer to this key regional boundary as the A‐horizon/Flett unconformity. The formation of this unconformity represents the transition from the pre‐breakup to the syn‐breakup phase of ocean margin development in the Faroe–Shetland region. We examine the wider implications of this correlation considering existing stratigraphic models for the FIBG, discussing potential sources of uncertainty in the correlation of the lower Palaeogene succession across the Faroe–Shetland region, and implications for the age and duration of the volcanism.  相似文献   

山区农村土地利用转型与小农经济变迁耦合机理   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

苏康传  杨庆媛  张佰林  张忠训 《地理研究》2019,38(2):399-413

通过山区土地利用转型与小农经济变迁的耦合关系分析,可以揭示山区人地关系的变化过程和机理。随着工业化、城镇化的快速推进,山区农村人地关系发生深刻变化,小农经济变迁驱动土地利用转型,土地利用转型进一步促进小农经济变迁。在阐述土地利用转型及小农经济变迁内涵和特征基础上,结合实证探讨二者间的耦合机理,以期为乡村振兴战略的实施提供理论支撑和现实参考。研究表明：① 山区农村土地利用转型与小农经济变迁相互影响,耦合演进。② 山区农村土地利用转型重点体现在农村宅基地、耕地及林地三类用地上。③ 中国小农经济已发生四次变迁,而山区小农经济变迁在第四次中表现较为明显,其阶段特征主要为农村人口向城镇迁移,土地流转频繁,土地规模经营趋势增强。④ 山区小农经济变迁引发耕地空间形态及功能转型,山区耕地转型进一步促进小农经济变迁。⑤ 山区小农经济变迁及农户生计策略非农化转变促使农户对宅基地结构及功能的需求发生变化;闲置废弃宅基地综合整治可显化农村土地资产价值,增加农民土地财产性收入,促进小农经济变迁。⑥ 通过云南省砚山县耕地利用转型案例剖析,验证了本文提出的山区农村土地利用转型与小农经济变迁的耦合机理。  相似文献   

近六百年来长江三角洲地区城镇空间与城镇体系格局演变分析     

覃丽君  金晓斌  蒋宇超  薛樵风  成一农  龙瀛  杨绪红  周寅康 《地理研究》2019,38(5):1045-1062

基于历史文献、古地图和现代遥感数据,引入历史学古代城镇形态复原方法,复原（提取）明代以来长江三角洲地区113座城镇7个时间断面（1461年、1820年、1930年、1970年、1980年、2000年和2010年）下的城镇边界,采用扩张速率、扩张效率、首位度指数和位序-规模法则,分析了近六百年来区域城镇空间与城镇体系等级规模演变格局。取得以下研究结果：\mathrm{①}研究时段内,区内城镇用地总规模由205.98 km²增加到6442.19 km²,扩大了31.27倍;城镇扩张经历了萌芽阶段（明清时期）、起步阶段（民国至改革开放前夕）、成长阶段（改革开放至2000年）和加速阶段（2000—2010年）,城镇扩张速率不断加快,但扩张效率有待提升;\mathrm{②}在城镇等级规模空间格局上,明清时期南京与苏州为区内的一级城镇,民国后,上海逐渐取代其地位,从五级城镇发展成为区域核心城镇,四级以上城镇主要集中在长江干流沿岸和太湖流域,五级以下城镇大多集中在安徽;城镇体系呈首位型分布,城镇首位度较高,且改革开放后的城镇首位度较明清与民国时期要高,不同等级规模城镇之间差距扩大,大城镇优势较强。近30年,长江沿岸城镇发展加速,苏锡常都市圈、南京都市圈等逐渐形成并快速发展。  相似文献   

东北三省城市土地利用效益评价及耦合协调关系研究   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

田俊峰  王彬燕  王士君 《地理科学》2019,39(2):305-315

在阐述城市土地利用效益系统耦合协调性内涵及其交互作用机理的基础上,构建综合评价指标体系,运用均方差决策法、耦合协调度模型,对东北三省2003~2015年城市土地利用综合效益及其主成分间耦合协调关系进行测度,并分析其时空演化过程。研究认为：① 城市土地利用综合效益表现出随时间“先升后降”的特征,区内三省间差异明显,中心和门户城市长期处于较高水平。② 城市土地利用经济效益亦存在“先升后降”的时序变化特征,空间上表现为“南高北低”,低值区范围缩减明显;社会效益差异不显著,在南北方向上表现出“凸”字型分布特征;区域生态环境效益整体较高,高值区由集中趋向分散。③ 城市土地利用经济、社会、生态环境效益间耦合协调关系在各时间节点均表现为失调,且以中度失调为主,但中心城市和门户城市的三效益耦合协调关系相对较好,向协调方向发展,哈长与辽中南城市群地区协调性优于其他区域,吉林省与辽宁省东部的部分城市协调关系趋向恶化。④ 城市土地利用效益间关系失调主要受复合因素的作用,经济效益滞后是制约土地利用效益耦合协调关系提升的主因,生态环境效益滞后不是限制土地利用效益耦合协调性提升的主要因素。  相似文献   

贵州省江口县硒、锗特色耕地资源分布规律研究          下载免费PDF全文

韩姚飞  沈小庆  张德实  洪万华 《贵州地质》2020,37(3):320-328

雨天城市道路交通拥堵频发，交通运行在道路网络各路段间的交互影响较晴天明显增强。本文针对传统出行时间预算模型应用的局限性，考虑雨天各路段间行车延误的相互影响，改进了走行时间方差的计算方法，提出一种雨天城市道路交通拥堵概率预测方法。选取南京市某行车路径进行验证，通过4种工况、3种模型走行时间的比较，发现考虑相关性的分段组合模型更接近整体路径分布情况，且拥堵概率预测准确率大于90%。研究结果表明：本文提出的预测模型能有效预测城市道路雨天拥堵情况，可为雨天道路适应性评价和交通管控提供依据。  相似文献   

The spatial local accuracy of land cover datasets over the Qiangtang Plateau,High Asia     

Liu  Qionghuan  Zhang  Yili  Liu  Linshan  Li  Lanhui  Qi  Wei 《地理学报(英文版)》2019,29(11):1841-1858

We analyzed the spatial local accuracy of land cover (LC) datasets for the Qiangtang Plateau, High Asia, incorporating 923 field sampling points and seven LC compilations including the International Geosphere Biosphere Programme Data and Information System (IGBPDIS), Global Land cover mapping at 30 m resolution (GlobeLand30), MODIS Land Cover Type product (MCD12Q1), Climate Change Initiative Land Cover (CCI-LC), Global Land Cover 2000 (GLC2000), University of Maryland (UMD), and GlobCover 2009 (Glob-Cover). We initially compared resultant similarities and differences in both area and spatial patterns and analyzed inherent relationships with data sources. We then applied a geographically weighted regression (GWR) approach to predict local accuracy variation. The results of this study reveal that distinct differences, even inverse time series trends, in LC data between CCI-LC and MCD12Q1 were present between 2001 and 2015, with the exception of category areal discordance between the seven datasets. We also show a series of evident discrepancies amongst the LC datasets sampled here in terms of spatial patterns, that is, high spatial congruence is mainly seen in the homogeneous southeastern region of the study area while a low degree of spatial congruence is widely distributed across heterogeneous northwestern and northeastern regions. The overall combined spatial accuracy of the seven LC datasets considered here is less than 70%, and the GlobeLand30 and CCI-LC datasets exhibit higher local accuracy than their counterparts, yielding maximum overall accuracy (OA) values of 77.39% and 61.43%, respectively. Finally, 5.63% of this area is characterized by both high assessment and accuracy (HH) values, mainly located in central and eastern regions of the Qiangtang Plateau, while most low accuracy regions are found in northern, northeastern, and western regions.

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Analog simulation of urban construction land supply and demand in Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration based on land intensive use     

Xiong  Ying  Chen  Yun  Peng  Fen  Li  Jingzhi  Yan  Xiaojing 《地理学报(英文版)》2019,29(8):1346-1362

Journal of Geographical Sciences - Urban land intensive use is an important indicator in harmonizing the relationship between land supply and demand. The system dynamics (SD) can be used to...  相似文献   

新疆和田地区耕地面源污染生态风险评价          下载免费PDF全文

田丰收  刘新平  原伟鹏 《干旱区地理》2019,42(2):295-304

随着化肥、农膜等在农业生产中的过量投入，耕地面源污染的程度随之加重。文章选取塔里木河流域上游和田地区为研究区域，依据P-S-R框架理论，构建和田地区耕地面源污染生态风险评价指标体系，加入土壤理化数据，使用生态风险评价模型对和田地区1980 年及2016 年耕地面源污染状况进行生态风险评价，运用耕地生态风险模型、生态风险转移矩阵、Arcgis分析和田地区耕地面源污染时空分异状况。研究结论如下：和田地区1980 年耕地生态风险等级均为II级或III级，呈“中间高，两侧低”分布；2016 年耕地生态风险等级上升至IV级或V级，呈“倒W型”分布，各县耕地面源污染程度较1980 年均有较大幅度的上升，其中墨玉县和于田县在2016 年耕地生态风险等级达到最高的V级，而民丰县因自身生态环境的强脆弱性，同样需要提高关注。根据面源污染“从源头治理”的原则，应切实推进和田地区耕地生态环境保护与治理，提高政府重视程度，增强技术指导，开展试点工作，改善和田地区耕地面源污染现状。  相似文献