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Achieving long-term climate mitigation goals in Japan faces several challenges, starting with the uncertain nuclear power policy after the 2011 earthquake, the uncertain availability and progress of energy technologies, as well as energy security concerns in light of a high dependency on fuel imports. The combined weight of these challenges needs to be clarified in terms of the energy system and macroeconomic impacts. We applied a general equilibrium energy economic model to assess these impacts on an 80% emission reduction target by 2050 considering several alternative scenarios for nuclear power deployment, technology availability, end use energy efficiency, and the price of fossil fuels. We found that achieving the mitigation target was feasible for all scenarios, with considerable reductions in total energy consumption (39%–50%), higher shares of low-carbon sources (43%–72% compared to 15%), and larger shares of electricity in the final energy supply (51%–58% compared to 42%). The economic impacts of limiting nuclear power by 2050 (3.5% GDP loss) were small compared to the lack of carbon capture and storage (CCS) (6.4% GDP loss). Mitigation scenarios led to an improvement in energy security indicators (trade dependency and diversity of primary energy sources) even in the absence of nuclear power. Moreover, preliminary analysis indicates that expanding the range of renewable energy resources can lower the macroeconomic impacts of the long term target considerably, and thus further in depth analysis is needed on this aspect.
Key policy insights
For Japan, an emissions reduction target of 80% by 2050 is feasible without nuclear power or CCS.
The macroeconomic impact of such a 2050 target was largest without CCS, and smallest without nuclear power.
Energy security indicators improved in mitigation scenarios compared to the baseline.
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We derive the governing equations for the dynamic response of unsaturated poroelastic solids at finite strain. We obtain simplified governing equations from the complete coupled formulation by neglecting the material time derivative of the relative velocities and the advection terms of the pore fluids relative to the solid skeleton, leading to a so‐called us ? pw ? pa formulation. We impose the weak forms of the momentum and mass balance equations at the current configuration and implement the framework numerically using a mixed finite element formulation. We verify the proposed method through comparison with analytical solutions and experiments of quasi‐static processes. We use a neo‐Hookean hyperelastic constitutive model for the solid matrix and demonstrate, through numerical examples, the impact of large deformation on the dynamic response of unsaturated poroelastic solids under a variety of loading conditions. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Spatial distribution of deuterium in atmospheric water vapor: Diagnosing sources and the mixing of atmospheric moisture 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
We measured the stable isotopic composition of hydrogen (δD) within atmospheric water vapor collected simultaneously at six sites in the vicinity of a lake (Lake Kasumigaura, Eastern Japan) to determine its spatial distribution characteristics and thereby diagnose sources and mixing of atmospheric moisture. The measured spatial distribution of δD showed no relation to distance from the lake, although it showed a correlation with the distribution of the water-vapor mixing ratio Q. For two of the three sampling days, we found a simple two-component (i.e., water vapor transpiring from local land surfaces and pre-existing vapor in the background atmosphere) mixing line in a Keeling plot (i.e., δ − 1/Q diagram). On a third day, however, contributions from lake evaporation were detected in addition to the above components. On this day, lake-derived vapor accounted for approximately 10-20% of atmospheric water vapor at the sites located leeward of the lake. The observed differences in mixing patterns among sampling days can be explained by a simple atmospheric moisture budget. Thus, it is likely that simultaneous isotopic measurements of atmospheric water vapor at multiple locations with aid of Keeling plot are capable of giving us useful information in diagnosing the sources and mixing pattern of the vapor. 相似文献
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基于U型卷积神经网络的航空影像建筑物检测 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
经典的卷积神经网络结构在前向传播过程中分辨率不断下降,导致仅采用末层特征时难以实现建筑物边缘的精确分割,进而限制目标检测精度。针对该问题,提出一种基于U型卷积网络的建筑物检测方法。首先借鉴在图像分割领域中性能出色的神经网络模型U-Net的建模思想,采用对称式的网络结构融合深度网络中的高维和低维特征以恢复高保真边界;其次考虑到经典U-Net对位于特征金字塔顶层的模型参数优化程度相对不足,通过在顶层和底层两个不同尺度输出预测结果进行双重约束,进一步提升了建筑物检测精度。在覆盖范围达30 km2、建筑物目标28 000余个的航空影像数据集上的试验结果表明,本文方法的检测结果在IoU和Kappa两项关键评价指标的均值上分别达到83.7%和89.5%,优于经典U-Net模型,显著优于经典全卷积网络模型和基于人工设计特征的AdaBoost模型。 相似文献
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Landslides - Centrifuge model tests on slopes subject to shaking and rainfall have been performed to examine the response of slopes with shaking-induced cracks to subsequent rainfall and evaluate... 相似文献
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Naru Hirata Olivier S. Barnouin-Jha Chikatoshi Honda Ryosuke Nakamura Hideaki Miyamoto Sho Sasaki Hirohide Demura Akiko M. Nakamura Tatsuhiro Michikami Robert W. Gaskell Jun Saito 《Icarus》2009,200(2):486-502
We determined the morphologies and dimensions of possible impact craters on the surface of Asteroid 25143 Itokawa from images taken by the Hayabusa spacecraft. Circular depressions, circular features with flat floors or convex floors, and circular features with smooth surfaces were identified as possible craters. The survey identified 38 candidates with widely varying morphologies including rough, smooth and saddle-shaped floors, a lack of raised rims and fresh material exposures. The average depth/diameter ratio was 0.08±0.03: these craters are very shallow relative to craters observed on other asteroids. These shallow craters are a result of (1) target curvature influencing the cratering process, (2) raised rim not being generated by this process, and (3) fines infilling the craters. As many of the crater candidates have an unusual appearance, we used a classification scheme that reflects the likelihood of an observed candidate's formation by a hypervelocity impact. We considered a variety of alternative interpretations while developing this scheme, including inherited features from a proto-Itokawa, spall scars created by the disruption of the proto-Itokawa, spall scars following the formation of a large crater on Itokawa itself, and apparent depressions due to random arrangements of boulders. The size-frequency distribution of the crater candidates was close to the empirical saturation line at the largest diameter, and then decline with decreasing diameter. 相似文献
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基于空间模型的全球粮食安全评价 总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6
在综合考虑自然、社会和经济等因子对粮食安全影响的基础上,选择了人均粮食占有量和人均GDP两个指标空间显性评价全球粮食安全状况。为此,本研究构建了3个模型,即空间EPIC模型、作物选择模型和IFPSIM模型,分别模拟作物单产、作物播种面积和作物价格。利用构建的评价框架和模型,以网格大小为6分弧度的地理单元为评价对象,选择水稻、玉米、小麦和大豆等4类全球主要作物类型,以2000年为初始年份,对未来2020年的全球粮食安全状况进行了评价。结果表明,到2020年,多数南亚国家和非洲国家,由于其人均粮食占有量和人均GDP两个指标值都显著降低,粮食供应不足和贫困一起将可能导致该区域存在粮食危机和饥饿风险。对于其他区域,日益增长的粮食需求可以通过本区域的粮食生产自给予以满足,或通过外部购买或粮食进口得到满足,总体上不存在粮食安全问题。为保障未来粮食安全,一方面要保护耕地数量和质量、防止土壤退化、增加资本投入、进行技术创新和升级,提高粮食综合生产能力,保障粮食的有效供给;另一方面加大农业补贴,切实提高农民收入,保障农民利益,增强农业购买力。同时,大力改善粮食流通和农产品贸易体制,通过外部市场来调节粮食供给;积极应对气候变化,提高农业生产对气候变化的适应能力,保证粮食生产的稳定。 相似文献
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华南地区三叠系地层发育,安尼阶底界（即下—中三叠统界线）附近广泛发育浅绿色火山凝灰岩或凝灰质碎屑岩,俗称 “绿豆岩”。国际安尼阶底界界线层型候选剖面——位于南盘江盆地内的贵州关刀剖面和广西湾头剖面,已获得可对比的“绿豆岩”锆石U-Pb年龄,但在相邻的上扬子台地上尚缺少对安尼阶底界测年的可对比数据。本研究采集了贵州省盘州市新民镇石门坎剖面三叠系关岭组底部的多层“绿豆岩”,利用LA-ICP-MS获得锆石的U-Pb年龄。结果显示,石门坎剖面关岭组底部的锆石结晶年龄为246.9±1.1 Ma,可与南盘江盆地内及上扬子台地区出露安尼阶底界的剖面相对比。其绝对年龄为上扬子台地区内的安尼阶底界年龄对比提供了参照,有助于限定中三叠世海生爬行动物群所代表的海洋生态系统的复苏时间。石门坎剖面地层沉积连续,未来有望继续开展综合地层学的研究。 相似文献
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Detlef P. van Vuuren Jae Edmonds Steven J. Smith Kate V. Calvin Joseph Karas Mikiko Kainuma Nebojsa Nakicenovic Keywan Riahi Bas J. van Ruijven Rob Swart Allison Thomson 《Climatic change》2010,103(3-4):635-642
Long-term scenarios developed by integrated assessment models are used in climate research to provide an indication of plausible long-term emissions of greenhouse gases and other radiatively active substances based on developments in the global energy system, land-use and the emissions associated with these systems. The phenomena that determine these long-term developments (several decades or even centuries) are very different than those that operate on a shorter time-scales (a few years). Nevertheless, in the literature, we still often find direct comparisons between short-term observations and long-term developments that do not take into account the differing dynamics over these time scales. In this letter, we discuss some of the differences between the factors that operate in the short term and those that operate in the long term. We use long-term historical emissions trends to show that short-term observations are very poor indicators of long-term future emissions developments. Based on this, we conclude that the performance of long-term scenarios should be evaluated against the appropriate, corresponding long-term variables and trends. The research community may facilitate this by developing appropriate data sets and protocols that can be used to test the performance of long-term scenarios and the models that produce them. 相似文献