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1.
Flood disasters and its consequent damages are on the rise globally. Pakistan has been experiencing an increase in flood frequency and severity along with resultant damages in the past. In addition to the regular practices of loss and damage estimation, current focus is on risk assessment of hazard-prone communities. Risk measurement is complex as scholars engaged in disaster science and management use different quantitative models with diverse interpretations. This study tries to provide clarity in conceptualizing disaster risk and proposes a risk assessment methodology with constituent components such as hazard, vulnerability (exposure and sensitivity) and coping/adaptive capacity. Three communities from different urban centers in Pakistan have been selected based on high flood frequency and intensity. A primary survey was conducted in selected urban communities to capture data on a number of variables relating to flood hazard, vulnerability and capacity to compute flood risk index. Households were categorized into different risk levels, such as can manage risk, can survive and cope, and cannot cope. It was found that risk levels varied significantly across the households of the three communities. Metropolitan city was found to be highly vulnerable as compared to smaller cities due to weak capacity. Households living in medium town had devised coping mechanisms to manage risk. The proposed methodology is tested and found operational for risk assessment of flood-prone areas and communities irrespective of locations and countries. 相似文献
2.
Sunil Kumar Tripathy Dipanjali Behera Tushar Ranjan Routray 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2010,325(1):93-97
Spatially homogeneous and anisotropic LRS Bianchi type-I string cosmological models are studied in the frame work of general
relativity when the source for the energy momentum tensor is a bulk viscous fluid containing one dimensional strings. A barotropic
equation of state for the pressure and density is assumed to get determinate solutions of the field equations. The bulk viscous
pressure is assumed to be proportional to the energy density. The physical and kinematical properties of the models are discussed.
The role of bulk viscosity in getting an inflationary phase in the universe is studied. 相似文献
3.
Impact of Doppler weather radar data on thunderstorm simulation during STORM pilot phase—2009 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
S. Kiran Prasad U. C. Mohanty A. Routray Krishna K. Osuri S. S. V. S. Ramakrishna Dev Niyogi 《Natural Hazards》2014,74(3):1403-1427
This study assesses the impact of Doppler weather radar (DWR) data (reflectivity and radial wind) assimilation on the simulation of severe thunderstorms (STS) events over the Indian monsoon region. Two different events that occurred during the Severe Thunderstorms Observations and Regional Modeling (STORM) pilot phase in 2009 were simulated. Numerical experiments—3DV (assimilation of DWR observations) and CNTL (without data assimilation)—were conducted using the three-dimensional variational data assimilation technique with the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF-ARW). The results show that consistent with prior studies the 3DV experiment, initialized by assimilation of DWR observations, performed better than the CNTL experiment over the Indian region. The enhanced performance was a result of improved representation and simulation of wind and moisture fields in the boundary layer at the initial time in the model. Assimilating DWR data caused higher moisture incursion and increased instability, which led to stronger convective activity in the simulations. Overall, the dynamic and thermodynamic features of the two thunderstorms were consistently better simulated after ingesting DWR data, as compared to the CNTL simulation. In the 3DV experiment, higher instability was observed in the analyses of thermodynamic indices and equivalent potential temperature (θ e) fields. Maximum convergence during the mature stage was also noted, consistent with maximum vertical velocities in the assimilation experiment (3DV). In addition, simulated hydrometeor (water vapor mixing ratio, cloud water mixing ratio, and rain water mixing ratio) structures improved with the 3DV experiment, compared to that of CNTL. From the higher equitable threat scores, it is evident that the assimilation of DWR data enhanced the skill in rainfall prediction associated with the STS over the Indian monsoon region. These results add to the body of evidence now which provide consistent and notable improvements in the mesoscale model results over the Indian monsoon region after assimilating DWR fields. 相似文献
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5.
Ashish Routray U. C. Mohanty Krishna K. Osuri S. Kiran Prasad 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2013,170(12):2329-2350
An attempt is made to evaluate the impact of Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) radial velocity and reflectivity in Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-3D variational data assimilation (3DVAR) system for prediction of Bay of Bengal (BoB) monsoon depressions (MDs). Few numerical experiments are carried out to examine the individual impact of the DWR radial velocity and the reflectivity as well as collectively along with Global Telecommunication System (GTS) observations over the Indian monsoon region. The averaged 12 and 24 h forecast errors for wind, temperature and moisture at different pressure levels are analyzed. This evidently explains that the assimilation of radial velocity and reflectivity collectively enhanced the performance of the WRF-3DVAR system over the Indian region. After identifying the optimal combination of DWR data, this study has also investigated the impact of assimilation of Indian DWR radial velocity and reflectivity data on simulation of the four different summer MDs that occurred over BoB. For this study, three numerical experiments (control no assimilation, with GTS and GTS along with DWR) are carried out to evaluate the impact of DWR data on simulation of MDs. The results of the study indicate that the assimilation of DWR data has a positive impact on the prediction of the location, propagation and development of rain bands associated with the MDs. The simulated meteorological parameters and tracks of the MDs are reasonably improved after assimilation of DWR observations as compared to the other experiments. The root mean square errors (RMSE) of wind fields at different pressure levels, equitable skill score and frequency bias are significantly improved in the assimilation experiments mainly in DWR assimilation experiment for all MD cases. The mean Vector Displacement Errors (VDEs) are significantly decreased due to the assimilation of DWR observations as compared to the CNTL and 3DV_GTS experiments. The study clearly suggests that the performance of the model simulation for the intense convective system which influences the large scale monsoonal flow is significantly improved after assimilation of the Indian DWR data from even one coastal locale within the MDs track. 相似文献
6.
Krishna K. Osuri U. C. Mohanty A. Routray Makarand A. Kulkarni M. Mohapatra 《Natural Hazards》2012,63(3):1337-1359
The convection and planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes play significant role in the genesis and intensification of tropical cyclones (TCs). Several convection and PBL parameterization schemes incorporate these processes in the numerical weather prediction models. Therefore, a systematic intercomparison of performance of parameterization schemes is essential to customize a model. In this context, six combinations of physical parameterization schemes (2 PBL Schemes, YSU and MYJ, and 3 convection schemes, KF, BM, and GD) of WRF-ARW model are employed to obtain the optimum combination for the prediction of TCs over North Indian Ocean. Five cyclones are studied for sensitivity experiments and the out-coming combination is tested on real-time prediction of TCs during 2008. The tracks are also compared with those provided by the operational centers like NCEP, ECMWF, UKMO, NCMRWF, and IMD. It is found that the combination of YSU PBL scheme with KF convection scheme (YKF) provides a better prediction of intensity, track, and rainfall consistently. The average RMSE of intensity (13?hPa in CSLP and 11?m?s?1 in 10-m wind), mean track, and landfall errors is found to be least with YKF combination. The equitable threat score (ETS) of YKF combination is more than 0.2 for the prediction of 24-h accumulated rainfall up to 125?mm. The vertical structural characteristics of cyclone inner core also recommend the YKF combination for Indian seas cyclones. In the real-time prediction of 2008 TCs, the 72-, 48-, and 24-h mean track errors are 172, 129, and 155?km and the mean landfall errors are 125, 73, and 66?km, respectively. Compared with the track of leading operational agencies, the WRF model is competing in 24?h (116?km error) and 72?h (166?km) but superior in 48-h (119?km) track forecast. 相似文献
7.
Earthquake hazards and community resilience in Baluchistan 总被引：5，自引：3，他引：2
Resilience is widely used from a variety of research perspectives; however, community resilience in particular is applied to a number of natural hazards and disasters-related studies, programs, and activities. It is also acknowledged that its measurement is cumbersome but not impossible. The prime objective of this paper is to measure the community resilience of an earthquake-prone area in Baluchistan. The article presents the concept of resilience, its approaches, selection of indicators, formulation of subjective assessment method for weighting the indicators, and finally, developing the community resilience index. For the community resilience measurement, a survey was conducted among 200 households in two earthquake risk zones of Quetta city, using simple random sampling method. The overall composite community resilience index revealed that the resilience is low in both the zones??A and B. However, it is revealed that there is a significant difference between the zones when compared against the components and indicators. Community resilience components such as economic, institutional, and physical have received higher index values in Zone B as compared to Zone A. Based on the findings, it is recommended to improve the socioeconomic, institutional, and structural (housing) conditions of the community by raising the community awareness and preparedness, implementing building codes, and providing income-generating activities in order to enhance the community resilience to cope up with earthquake hazards in the future. 相似文献
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9.
A. Routray U. C. Mohanty Dev Niyogi S. R. H. Rizvi Krishna K. Osuri 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2010,106(1-2):107-125
We present the results of the impact of the 3D variational data assimilation (3DVAR) system within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate three heavy rainfall events (25–28 June 2005, 29–31 July 2004, and 7–9 August 2002) over the Indian monsoon region. For each event, two numerical experiments were performed. In the first experiment, namely the control simulation (CNTL), the low-resolution global analyses are used as the initial and boundary conditions of the model. In the second experiment (3DV-ANA), the model integration was carried out by inserting additional observations in the model’s initial conditions using the 3DVAR scheme. The 3DVAR used surface weather stations, buoy, ship, radiosonde/rawinsonde, and satellite (oceanic surface wind, cloud motion wind, and cloud top temperature) observations obtained from the India Meteorological Department (IMD). After the successful inclusion of additional observational data using the 3DVAR data assimilation technique, the resulting reanalysis was able to successfully reproduce the structure of convective organization as well as prominent synoptic features associated with the mid-tropospheric cyclones (MTC). The location and intensity of the MTC were better simulated in the 3DV-ANA as compared to the CNTL. The results demonstrate that the improved initial conditions of the mesoscale model using 3DVAR enhanced the location and amount of rainfall over the Indian monsoon region. Model verification and statistical skill were assessed with the help of available upper-air sounding data. The objective verification further highlighted the efficiency of the data assimilation system. The improvements in the 3DVAR run are uniformly better as compared to the CNTL run for all the three cases. The mesoscale 3DVAR data assimilation system is not operational in the weather forecasting centers in India and a significant finding in this study is that the assimilation of Indian conventional and non-conventional observation datasets into numerical weather forecast models can help improve the simulation accuracy of meso-convective activities over the Indian monsoon region. Results from the control experiments also highlight that weather and regional climate model simulations with coarse analysis have high uncertainty in simulating heavy rain events over the Indian monsoon region and assimilation approaches, such as the 3DVAR can help reduce this uncertainty. 相似文献
10.
U. C. Mohanty A. Routray Krishna K. Osuri S. Kiran Prasad 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2012,169(3):381-399
An attempt is made to evaluate the impact of the three dimensional variational (3DVAR) data assimilation within the Weather
Research Forecasting (WRF) modeling system to simulate two heavy rainfall events which occured on 26–27 July 2005 and 27–30
July 2006. During the 26–27 July 2005 event, the unprecedented localized intense rainfall 90–100 cm was recorded over the
northeast parts of Mumbai city; however, southern parts received only 10 cm. Model simulation with the data assimilation experiment
is reasonably well predicted for the rainfall intensity (800 mm) in 24 h and with accurate location over Mumbai agreeing with
observation. Divergence, vorticity, vertical velocity and moisture parameters are evaluated during the various stages of the
event. It is noticed that maximum convergence and vorticity during the mature stage; at the same time the vertical velocity
also follows a similar trend during the period in the assimilation experiment. Vorticity budget terms over the location of
heavy rainfall revealed that the contribution of the positive tilting term produced positive vorticity which triggered the
convection and negative contribution to vorticity from the tilting term to precede the dissipation of the system. Model simulations
from the second rain event, the off-shore trough at sea level along the west coast of India, is well represented after assimilation
of observations during day-1 and day-2 as compared to the control simulations; the orientation of the off-shore trough is
well matched with that of the observed. The intensity and spatial distribution of the rainfall has considerably improved in
the assimilation simulation. The statistical skill scores also revealed that the precipitation forecast during the period
has appreciably improved due to assimilation of observations. The results of this study indicate a positive impact of the
3DVAR assimilation on the simulation of heavy rainfall events. 相似文献