High resolution simulations of January and July climate over the western Alpine region with a nested Regional Modeling system   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

M. R. Marinucci  F. Giorgi  M. Beniston  M. Wild  P. Tschuck  A. Ohmura  A. Bernasconi 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》1995,51(3):119-138

Summary High resolution January and July present day climatologies over the central-western Alpine region are simulated with a Regional Climate Model (RegCM) nested within a General Circulation Model (GCM). The RegCM was developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and is run at 20 km grid point spacing. The model is driven by output from a present day climate simulation performed with the GCM ECHAM3 of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI) at T106 resolution (~ 120 km). Five January and July simulations are conducted with the nested RegCM and the results for surface air temperature and precipitation are compared with a gridded observed dataset and a dataset from 99 observing stations throughout the Swiss territory. The driving ECHAM3 simulation reproduces well the position of the northeastern Atlantic jet, but underestimates the jet intensity over the Mediterranean. Precipitation over the Alpine region in the ECHAM3 simulation is close to observed in January but lower than observed in July. Compared to the driving GCM, the nested RegCM produces more precipitation in both seasons, mostly as a result of the stronger model orographic forcing. Average RegCM temperature over the Swiss region is 2–3 degrees higher than observed, while average precipitation is within 30% of observed values. The spatial distribution of precipitation is in general agreement with available gridded observations and the model reproduces the observed elevation dependency of precipitation in the summer. In the winter the simulated elevation of maximum precipitation amounts is lower than observed. Precipitation frequencies are overestimated, while precipitation intensities show a reasonable agreement with observations, especially in the winter. Sensitivity experiments with different cumulus parameterizations, soil moisture initialization and model topography are discussed. Overall, the model performance at the high resolution used here did not deteriorate compared to previous lower resolution experiments.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.With 11 Figures  相似文献   

Global high resolution versus Limited Area Model climate change projections over Europe: quantifying confidence level from PRUDENCE results     

M. Déqué  R. G. Jones  M. Wild  F. Giorgi  J. H. Christensen  D. C. Hassell  P. L. Vidale  B. Rockel  D. Jacob  E. Kjellström  M. de. Castro  F. Kucharski  B. van den Hurk 《Climate Dynamics》2005,25(6):653-670

Four high resolution atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) have been integrated with the standard forcings of the PRUDENCE experiment: IPCC-SRES A2 radiative forcing and Hadley Centre sea surface temperature and sea-ice extent. The response over Europe, calculated as the difference between the 2071–2100 and the 1961–1990 means is compared with the same diagnostic obtained with nine Regional Climate Models (RCM) all driven by the Hadley Centre atmospheric GCM. The seasonal mean response for 2m temperature and precipitation is investigated. For temperature, GCMs and RCMs behave similarly, except that GCMs exhibit a larger spread. However, during summer, the spread of the RCMs—in particular in terms of precipitation—is larger than that of the GCMs. This indicates that the European summer climate is strongly controlled by parameterized physics and/or high-resolution processes. The temperature response is larger than the systematic error. The situation is different for precipitation. The model bias is twice as large as the climate response. The confidence in PRUDENCE results comes from the fact that the models have a similar response to the IPCC-SRES A2 forcing, whereas their systematic errors are more spread. In addition, GCM precipitation response is slightly but significantly different from that of the RCMs.  相似文献   

温室效应对青藏高原及青藏铁路沿线气候影响的数值模拟   总被引：25，自引：12，他引：13  

高学杰  李栋梁  赵宗慈  Filippo Giorgi 《高原气象》2003,22(5):458-463

在一个全球模式中嵌套了RegCM2区域气候模式,进行了CO2加倍对中国区域气候影响的数值试验,对青藏高原及青藏铁路沿线地区进行了重点分析。结果表明,在CO2加倍的情况下,这里的气温将明显升高,升高值一般在2．6～2．8℃以上,高于全国平均值。同时降水在青藏高原大部分地区也将明显增加;其中青藏铁路沿线的增加率一般在25％以上,远高于全国平均值水平。温室效应同时会使得青藏铁路沿线的日平均最高气温升高。  相似文献   

An intercomparison of regional climate simulations for Europe: assessing uncertainties in model projections   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

M. Déqué  D. P. Rowell  D. Lüthi  F. Giorgi  J. H. Christensen  B. Rockel  D. Jacob  E. Kjellström  M. de Castro  B. van den Hurk 《Climatic change》2007,81(1):53-70

Ten regional climate models (RCM) have been integrated with the standard forcings of the PRUDENCE experiment: IPCC-SRES A2 radiative forcing and Hadley Centre boundary conditions. The response over Europe, calculated as the difference between the 2071–2100 and the 1961–1990 means can be viewed as an expected value about which various uncertainties exist. Uncertainties are measured here by variance in eight sub-European boxes. Four sources of uncertainty can be evaluated with the material provided by the PRUDENCE project. Sampling uncertainty is due to the fact that the model climate is estimated as an average over a finite number of years (30). Model uncertainty is due to the fact that the models use different techniques to discretize the equations and to represent sub-grid effects. Radiative uncertainty is due to the fact that IPCC-SRES A2 is merely one hypothesis. Some RCMs have been run with another scenario of greenhouse gas concentration (IPCC-SRES B2). Boundary uncertainty is due to the fact that the regional models have been run under the constraint of the same global model. Some RCMs have been run with other boundary forcings. The contribution of the different sources varies according to the field, the region and the season, but the role of boundary forcing is generally greater than the role of the RCM, in particular for temperature. Maps of minimum expected 2m temperature and precipitation responses for the IPCC-A2 scenario show that, despite the above mentioned uncertainties, the signal from the PRUDENCE ensemble is significant.  相似文献   

中国当代土地利用对区域气候影响的数值模拟   总被引：20，自引：0，他引：20  

高学杰  张冬峰  陈仲新  Jeremy S.Pal  Filippo Giorgi 《中国科学D辑》2007,37(3):397-404

使用RegCM3区域气候模式，嵌套欧洲数值预报中心(ECMWF)ERA40再分析资料，分别进行了中国区域在实际植被和理想植被分布情况下各15年时间长度（1987-2001）的积分试验，以研究我国土地利用状况对气候的影响。通过两个试验结果的对比，研究了我国土地利用状况对气候的影响。分析主要集中于气温、降水等的变化上，并对结果进行了统计显著性检验。结果表明，当代土地利用/植被覆盖变化加强了中国地区冬、夏季的季风环流，同时改变了地表能量平衡状况，从而对各气候要素产生重要影响。冬季，植被改变引起长江以南降水减少、气温降低，长江以北降水增加。夏季，植被改变显著影响了南方地区的气候，使得这里降水增多，黄淮、江淮气温降低，华南气温上升；同时引起中国北方降水减少，气温在西北部分植被退化地区升高。植被变化对日最低、最高气温的影响更大。总体来说，土地利用引起了年平均降水在南方增加、北方减少，年平均气温在南方显著降低。  相似文献   

Simulating future Caspian sea level changes using regional climate model outputs     

N. Elguindi  F. Giorgi 《Climate Dynamics》2007,28(4):365-379

We report on simulations of present-day climate (1961–1990) and future climate conditions (2071–2100, Special Report on Emissions Scenario A2) over the Caspian sea basin with a regional climate model (RCM) nested in time-slice general circulation model (GCM) simulations. We also calculate changes (A2 scenario minus present-day) in Caspian sea level (CSL) in response to changes in the simulated hydrologic budget of the basin. For the present-day run, both the GCM and RCM show a good performance in reproducing the water budget of the basin and the magnitude of multi-decadal changes in CSL. Compared to present-day climate, in the A2 scenario experiment we find an increase in cold season precipitation and an increase in temperature and evaporation, both over land and over the Caspian sea. We also find a large decrease of CSL in the A2 scenario run compared to the present-day run. This is due to increased evaporation loss from the basin (particularly over the sea) exceeding increased cold season precipitation over the basin. Our results suggest that the CSL might undergo large changes under future climate change, leading to potentially devastating consequences for the economy and environment of the region.  相似文献   

Assessment of RegCM4 simulated inter-annual variability and daily-scale statistics of temperature and precipitation over Mexico     

Ramón Fuentes-Franco  Erika Coppola  Filippo Giorgi  Federico Graef  Edgar G. Pavia 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(3-4):629-647

The skill of a regional climate model (RegCM4) in capturing the mean patterns, interannual variability and extreme statistics of daily-scale temperature and precipitation events over Mexico is assessed through a comparison of observations and a 27-year long simulation driven by reanalyses of observations covering the Central America CORDEX domain. The analysis also includes the simulation of tropical cyclones. It is found that RegCM4 reproduces adequately the mean spatial patterns of seasonal precipitation and temperature, along with the associated interannual variability characteristics. The main model bias is an overestimation of precipitation in mountainous regions. The 5 and 95 percentiles of daily temperature, as well as the maximum dry spell length are realistically simulated. The simulated distribution of precipitation events as well as the 95 percentile of precipitation shows a wet bias in topographically complex regions. Based on a simple detection method, the model produces realistic tropical cyclone distributions even at its relatively coarse resolution (dx = 50 km), although the number of cyclone days is underestimated over the Pacific and somewhat overestimated over the Atlantic and Caribbean basins. Overall, it is assessed that the performance of RegCM4 over Mexico is of sufficient quality to study not only mean precipitation and temperature patterns, but also higher order climate statistics.  相似文献   

Seasonal and intraseasonal changes of African monsoon climates in 21st century CORDEX projections   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

L. Mariotti  I. Diallo  E. Coppola  F. Giorgi 《Climatic change》2014,125(1):53-65

We analyze a mini ensemble of regional climate projections over the CORDEX Africa domain carried out with RegCM4 model as part of the Phase I CREMA experiment (Giorgi 2013). RegCM4 is driven by the HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM global models for the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 greenhouse gas and aerosol concentration scenarios. The focus of the analysis is on seasonal and intraseasonal monsoon characteristics. We find two prominent change signals. Over West Africa and the Sahel MPI produces a forward shift in the monsoon season in line with previous findings, and this shift is also simulated by the RegCM4. Furthermore, the regional model produces a widespread decrease of monsoon precipitation (when driven by both MPI and HadGEM) associated with decreased easterly wave activity in the 6–9 days regime and with soil moisture-precipitation interactions. South of the equator we find an extension of the dry season with delayed onset and anticipated recession of the monsoon and a narrowing and strengthening of the ITCZ precipitation band. This signal is consistent in all global and regional model projections, although with different spatial detail. We plan to enlarge this mini-ensemble as a further contribution to the CORDEX project to better assess the robustness of the signals found in this paper.  相似文献   

Changes in extremes and hydroclimatic regimes in the CREMA ensemble projections   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Filippo Giorgi  Erika Coppola  Francesca Raffaele  Gulilat Tefera Diro  Ramon Fuentes-Franco  Graziano Giuliani  Ashu Mamgain  Marta Pereira Llopart  Laura Mariotti  Csaba Torma 《Climatic change》2014,125(1):39-51

We analyze changes of four extreme hydroclimatic indices in the RCP8.5 projections of the Phase I CREMA experiment, which includes 21st century projections over 5 CORDEX domains (Africa, Central America, South America, South Asia, Mediterranean) with the ICTP regional model RegCM4 driven by three CMIP5 global models. The indices are: Heat Wave Day Index (HWD), Maximum Consecutive Dry Day index (CDD), fraction of precipitation above the 95th intensity percentile (R95) and Hydroclimatic Intensity index (HY-INT). Comparison with coarse (GPCP) and high (TRMM) resolution daily precipitation data for the present day conditions shows that the precipitation intensity distributions from the GCMs are close to the GPCP data, while the RegCM4 ones are closer to TRMM, illustrating the added value of the increased resolution of the regional model. All global and regional model simulations project predominant increases in HWD, CDD, R95 and HY-INT, implying a regime shift towards more intense, less frequent rain events and increasing risk of heat wave, drought and flood with global warming. However, the magnitudes of the changes are generally larger in the global than the regional models, likely because of the relatively low “climate sensitivity” of the RegCM4, especially when using the CLM land surface scheme. In addition, pronounced regional differences in the change signals are found. The data from these simulations are available for use in impact assessment studies.  相似文献   

Sensitivity of the regional climate model RegCM4.2 to planetary boundary layer parameterisation     

Ivan Güttler  Čedo Branković  Travis A. O’Brien  Erika Coppola  Branko Grisogono  Filippo Giorgi 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(7-8):1753-1772

This study investigates the performance of two planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterisations in the regional climate model RegCM4.2 with specific focus on the recently implemented prognostic turbulent kinetic energy parameterisation scheme: the University of Washington (UW) scheme. When compared with the default Holtslag scheme, the UW scheme, in the 10-year experiments over the European domain, shows a substantial cooling. It reduces winter warm bias over the north-eastern Europe by 2 °C and reduces summer warm bias over central Europe by 3 °C. A part of the detected cooling is ascribed to a general reduction in lower tropospheric eddy heat diffusivity with the UW scheme. While differences in temperature tendency due to PBL schemes are mostly localized to the lower troposphere, the schemes show a much higher diversity in how vertical turbulent mixing of the water vapour mixing ratio is governed. Differences in the water vapour mixing ratio tendency due to the PBL scheme are present almost throughout the troposphere. However, they alone cannot explain the overall water vapour mixing ratio profiles, suggesting strong interaction between the PBL and other model parameterisations. An additional 18-member ensemble with the UW scheme is made, where two formulations of the master turbulent length scale in unstable conditions are tested and unconstrained parameters associated with (a) the evaporative enhancement of the cloud-top entrainment and (b) the formulation of the master turbulent length scale in stable conditions are systematically perturbed. These experiments suggest that the master turbulent length scale in the UW scheme could be further refined in the current implementation in the RegCM model. It was also found that the UW scheme is less sensitive to the variations of the other two selected unconstrained parameters, supporting the choice of these parameters in the default formulation of the UW scheme.  相似文献