Cartograms for Use in Forecasting Weather-Driven Natural Hazards     

Florian Pappenberger  Hannah L. Cloke  Calum A. Baugh 《The Cartographic journal》2019,56(2):134-145

This paper evaluates the potential of using cartograms for visualizing and interpreting forecasts of weather-driven natural hazards in the context of global weather forecasting and early warning systems. The use of cartograms is intended to supplement traditional cartographic representations of the hazards in order to highlight the severity of an upcoming event. Cartogrammetric transformations are applied to forecasts of floods, heatwaves, windstorms and snowstorms taken from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) forecast archive. Key cartogram design principles in standard weather forecast visualization are tested. Optimal cartogram transformation is found to be dependent on geographical features (such as coastlines) and forecast features (such as snowstorm intensity). For highly spatially autocorrelated weather variables used in analysing several upcoming natural hazards such as 2m temperature anomaly, the visualization of the distortion provides a promising addition to standard forecast visualizations for highlighting upcoming weather-driven natural hazards.  相似文献   

Anisotropic dual-continuum representations for multiscale poroelastic materials: Development and numerical modelling     

Mark Ashworth  Florian Doster 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2020,44(17):2304-2328

Dual-continuum (DC) models can be tractable alternatives to explicit approaches for the numerical modelling of multiscale materials with multiphysics behaviours. This work concerns the conceptual and numerical modelling of poroelastically coupled dual-scale materials such as naturally fractured rock. Apart from a few exceptions, previous poroelastic DC models have assumed isotropy of the constituents and the dual-material. Additionally, it is common to assume that only one continuum has intrinsic stiffness properties. Finally, little has been done into validating whether the DC paradigm can capture the global poroelastic behaviours of explicit numerical representations at the DC modelling scale. We address the aforementioned knowledge gaps in two steps. First, we utilise a homogenisation approach based on Levin's theorem to develop a previously derived anisotropic poroelastic constitutive model. Our development incorporates anisotropic intrinsic stiffness properties of both continua. This addition is in analogy to anisotropic fractured rock masses with stiff fractures. Second, we perform numerical modelling to test the DC model against fine-scale explicit equivalents. In doing, we present our hybrid numerical framework, as well as the conditions required for interpretation of the numerical results. The tests themselves progress from materials with isotropic to anisotropic mechanical and flow properties. The fine-scale simulations show that anisotropy can have noticeable effects on deformation and flow behaviour. However, our numerical experiments show that the DC approach can capture the global poroelastic behaviours of both isotropic and anisotropic fine-scale representations.  相似文献   

Predicting seiche hazard for coastal harbours along the northern and western coasts of France     

André  Gael  Bellafont  Florian  Leckler  Fabien  Morichon  Denis 《Natural Hazards》2021,106(1):1065-1086

Natural Hazards - Long-period waves propagating inside harbours can lead to the generation of seiche that can affect and significantly disrupt port operations. This study is based on the analysis...  相似文献   

Causes and consequences of long-term groundwater overabstraction in Jordan     

Brückner  Florian  Bahls  Rebecca  Alqadi  Mohammad  Lindenmaier  Falk  Hamdan  Ibraheem  Alhiyari  Mohammad  Atieh  Ala’a 《Hydrogeology Journal》2021,29(8):2789-2802

Hydrogeology Journal - In 2017, a comprehensive review of groundwater resources in Jordan was carried out for the first time since 1995. The change in groundwater levels between 1995 and 2017 was...  相似文献   

Lithospheric Electrical Structure across the Eastern Segment of the Altyn Tagh Fault on the Northern Margin of the Tibetan Plateau     

ZHANG Letian  YE Gaofeng  JIN Sheng  WEI Wenbo  Martyn UNSWORTH  Alan G. JONES  JING Jianen  DONG Hao  XIE Chengliang  Florian LE PAPE  Jan VOZAR 《《地质学报》英文版》2015,89(1):90-104

Project INDEPTH (InterNational DEep Profiling of Tibet and the Himalaya) is an interdisciplinary program designed to develop a better understanding of deep structures and mechanics of the Tibetan Plateau. As a component of magnetotelluric (MT) work in the 4th phase of the project, MT data were collected along a profile that crosses the eastern segment of the Altyn Tagh fault on the northern margin of the plateau. Time series data processing used robust algorithms to give high quality responses. Dimensionality analysis showed that 2D approach is only valid for the northern section of the profile. Consequently, 2D inversions were only conducted for the northern section, and 3D inversions were conducted on MT data from the whole profile. From the 2D inversion model, the eastern segment of the Altyn Tagh fault only appears as a crustal structure, which suggests accommodation of strike slip motion along the Altyn Tagh fault by thrusting within the Qilian block. A large-scale off-profile conductor within the mid-lower crust of the Qilian block was revealed from the 3D inversion model, which is probably correlated with the North Qaidam thrust belt. Furthermore, the unconnected conductors from the 3D inversion model indicate that deformations in the study area are generally localized.  相似文献   

Diffusive mass exchange of non‐reactive substances in dual‐porosity porous systems – column experiments under saturated conditions          下载免费PDF全文

Bastian Knorr  Piotr Maloszewski  Florian Krämer  Christine Stumpp 《水文研究》2016,30(6):914-926

Diffusive mass exchange into immobile water regions within heterogeneous porous aquifers influences the fate of solutes. The percentage of immobile water is often unidentified in natural aquifers though. Hence, the mathematical prediction of solute transport in such heterogeneous aquifers remains challenging. The objective of this study was to find a simple analytical model approach that allows quantifying properties of mobile and immobile water regions and the portion of immobile water in a porous system. Therefore, the Single Fissure Dispersion Model (SFDM), which takes into account diffusive mass exchange between mobile and immobile water zones, was applied to model transport in well‐defined saturated dual‐porosity column experiments. Direct and indirect model validation was performed by running experiments at different flow velocities and using conservative tracer with different molecular diffusion coefficients. In another column setup, immobile water regions were randomly distributed to test the model applicability and to determine the portion of immobile water. In all setups, the tracer concentration curves showed differences in normalized maximum peak concentration, tailing and mass recovery according to their diffusion coefficients. These findings were more pronounced at lower flow rates (larger flow times) indicating the dependency of diffusive mass exchange into immobile water regions on tracers' molecular diffusion coefficients. The SFDM simulated all data with high model efficiency. Successful model validation supported the physical meaning of fitted model parameters. This study showed that the SFDM, developed for fissured aquifers, is applicable in porous media and can be used to determine porosity and volume of regions with immobile water. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Editorial to the 40th anniversary of the international research society INTERPRAEVENT: hazard analysis and mitigation of mass movements in an alpine environment     

Johannes Hübl  Florian Rudolf-Miklau  Gernot Fiebiger 《Natural Hazards》2011,56(2):421-423

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Active mud volcanoes on the upper slope of the western Nile deep-sea fan—first results from the P362/2 cruise of R/V Poseidon   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Tomas Feseker  Kevin R. Brown  Cecile Blanchet  Florian Scholz  Marianne Nuzzo  Anja Reitz  Mark Schmidt  Christian Hensen 《Geo-Marine Letters》2010,30(3-4):169-186

In February 2008, cruise P362/2 was undertaken aboard R/V Poseidon to the Giza and North Alex mud volcanoes (MVs) on the upper slope of the western Nile deep-sea fan. Emitted fluids were strongly depleted in chloride and rich in hydrocarbons, predominantly of thermogenic origin. In-situ sediment temperature measurements indicate extremely high and moderate levels of activity for the North Alex MV and Giza MV, respectively, and suggest rapid changes from dormant to active stages. Both the physical properties of core sediments (e.g., color and magnetic susceptibility), and their assemblages of micro- and nannofossils point to different sources for the two mud volcanoes. Biostratigraphic dating suggests source depths of 2,100–2,450 mbsf for the Giza MV and 1,150–1,550 mbsf for the North Alex MV. Very high temperatures of up to 70°C in shallow sediments at the North Alex MV can be explained only if the fluid source were warmer and deeper than the sediment source.  相似文献   

Impacts of uncertain river flow data on rainfall‐runoff model calibration and discharge predictions     

Hilary McMillan  Jim Freer  Florian Pappenberger  Tobias Krueger  Martyn Clark 《水文研究》2010,24(10):1270-1284

In order to quantify total error affecting hydrological models and predictions, we must explicitly recognize errors in input data, model structure, model parameters and validation data. This paper tackles the last of these: errors in discharge measurements used to calibrate a rainfall‐runoff model, caused by stage–discharge rating‐curve uncertainty. This uncertainty may be due to several combined sources, including errors in stage and velocity measurements during individual gaugings, assumptions regarding a particular form of stage–discharge relationship, extrapolation of the stage–discharge relationship beyond the maximum gauging, and cross‐section change due to vegetation growth and/or bed movement. A methodology is presented to systematically assess and quantify the uncertainty in discharge measurements due to all of these sources. For a given stage measurement, a complete PDF of true discharge is estimated. Consequently, new model calibration techniques can be introduced to explicitly account for the discharge error distribution. The method is demonstrated for a gravel‐bed river in New Zealand, where all the above uncertainty sources can be identified, including significant uncertainty in cross‐section form due to scour and re‐deposition of sediment. Results show that rigorous consideration of uncertainty in flow data results in significant improvement of the model's ability to predict the observed flow. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Trace element diagenesis in pyrite-rich sediments of the Achterwasser lagoon, SW Baltic Sea     

Florian Scholz  Thomas Neumann 《Marine Chemistry》2007,107(4):516-532

The early diagenesis of trace elements (V, Cr, Co, Cu, Zn, As, Cd, Ba, U) in anoxic sediments of the Achterwasser, a shallow lagoon in the non-tidal Oder estuary in the Baltic Sea, was investigated in the context of pyrite formation. The dissolved major redox parameters show a two-tier distribution with transient signals in the occasionally re-suspended fluid mud layer (FM) and a permanently established diagenetic sequence in the sediment below. Intense microbial respiration leads to rapid depletion of O₂ within the uppermost mm of the FM. The reduction zones of Mn, Fe and sulfate overlap in the FM and in the permanently anoxic sediment section which appears to be a typical feature of estuarine sediments, under low-sulfate conditions. Degrees of pyritization (DOP) range from 50% in the FM to remarkably high values > 90% at 50 cm depth. Pyrite formation at the sediment surface is attributed to the reaction of Fe-monosulfides with intermediate sulfur species via the polysulfide pathway. By contrast, intense pyritization in the permanently anoxic sediment below is attributed to mineral growth via adsorption of aqueous Fe-sulfide complexes onto pyrite crystals which had originally formed in the surface layer.The studied trace elements show differential behavior patterns which are closely coupled to the diagenetic processes described above: (i) Zn, Cu and Cd are liberated from organic matter in the thin oxic layer of the sediment and diffuse both upwards across the sediment/water boundary and downwards to be trapped as monosulfides, (ii) V, Cr, Co and As are released during reductive dissolution of Mn- and Fe-oxyhydroxides, (iii) U removal from pore water occurs concomitantly to Fe reduction in the FM and is attributed to reduction of U(VI) to U(IV), (iv) the Ba distribution is controlled by reductive dissolution of authigenic barite in the sulfate reduction zone coupled with upward diffusion and re-precipitation. The incorporation of trace elements into pyrite is most intense for Co, Mn and As, intermediate for Cu and Cr and little to negligible for U, Zn, Cd, V and Ba. The observed trend is largely in agreement with previous studies and may be explained with differing rates for ligand exchange. Slow and fast ligand exchange and thus precipitation kinetics are also displayed by downcore increasing (Mn, Cr, Co and As) or constantly low (Zn, Cu, Cd) pore water concentrations. The downward increasing degrees of trace metal pyritization (DTMP) for Co, Cu, Zn and As are, in analogy to pyrite growth, assigned to adsorption of sulfide complexes or As oxyanions onto preexisting pyrite minerals.  相似文献