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利用中国气象局上海台风研究所(CMA)和国家海洋局(SOA)数据资料, 对南海沿海台风活动(1949—2016)和风暴潮灾害趋势(1989—2016)进行了统计分析。结果表明, 南海地区台风年登陆频数整体上呈微弱减少趋势, 但强台风影响及强度呈加强趋势; 1990年代中期台风登陆频数出现显著突变, 粤东地区受高强度台风的影响变得频繁, 粤西地区从2007年开始台风登陆强度逐年增强; 研究区域内台风强度分布一致性较好。文章还总结了典型的热带气旋路径, 分析了不同入射角范围的台风在强度和地区分布上占比的变化规律, 指出近年来中国南海沿海地区年强台风暴潮灾害发生频数增多, 年最大风暴潮等级有增大趋势。 相似文献
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热带气旋是危害中国最严重的天气系统,分析和认识中国沿海登陆热带气旋活动的新特征对防灾减灾具有重要意义。依据近70年气象资料,采用统计学方法,对登陆中国沿海的热带气旋特征进行分析,研究发现:在气候变化的背景下,登陆中国的热带气旋发生了明显变化。近年台风登陆频数高于往年平均,其整体强度和最大值均呈增大趋势,年台风强度的不稳定性加剧;研究还发现台风强度越高,其生成地纬度带范围越窄且越靠近赤道;建立了高强度热带气旋(STY和SUPER TY)时间和纬度的关系"φ—m"。检验了台风季长与初旋日呈负相关且不受厄尔尼诺现象影响,台风季长符合正态分布并给出概率密度公式。 相似文献
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Based on the linear shallow water equations, an analytic solution of trapped waves over a symmetric parabolic- profile submerged ridge is derived. The trapped waves act as propagating waves along the ridge and as standing waves across the ridge. The amplitude gets the maximum at the ridge top and decays gradually towards both sides. The decaying rate gets more gently with higher modes. Besides, an explicit first-order approximate dispersion relation is derived to simplify transcendental functions in the exact solution, which is useful to describe trapped waves over shallowly submerged ridges in reality. Furthermore, the trapping mechanism of the submerged ridge waveguides on the trans-oceanic tsunami propagation can be explained by the ray theory. A critical incident angle exists as a criterion to determine whether the wave is trapped. Besides, a trapped parameter γ is proposed to estimate the ratio of the energy trapped by the oceanic ridge if a tsunami is generated at its top. 相似文献
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Based on the linear shallow water equations,an analytic solution of trapped waves over a symmetric parabolicprofile submerged ridge is derived.The trapped waves act as propagating waves along the ridge and as standing waves across the ridge.The amplitude gets the maximum at the ridge top and decays gradually towards both sides.The decaying rate gets more gently with higher modes.Besides,an explicit first-order approximate dispersion relation is derived to simplify transcendental functions in the exact solution,which is useful to describe trapped waves over shallowly submerged ridges in reality.Furthermore,the trapping mechanism of the submerged ridge waveguides on the trans-oceanic tsunami propagation can be explained by the ray theory.A critical incident angle exists as a criterion to determine whether the wave is trapped.Besides,a trapped parameter γ is proposed to estimate the ratio of the energy trapped by the oceanic ridge if a tsunami is generated at its top. 相似文献
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