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1.
Frolova N. L. Magritskii D. V. Kireeva M. B. Grigor’ev V. Yu. Gelfan A. N. Sazonov A. A. Shevchenko A. I. 《Water Resources》2022,49(3):333-350
Water Resources - Publications on changes in river water regime in Russia under the conditions of current climate changes are reviewed. Most recent generalizations of such publications are... 相似文献
2.
A regional numerical physico-mathematical model of river runoff formation is used to study the possibility to assess long-term variations of water regime characteristics in the Amur R. in the XXI century. Two methods were used to specify climate projections as boundary conditions in the hydrological model: (1) based on the results of calculations with an ensemble of global climate models of CMI5 project, (2) based on data obtained by linear transformation of series of actual meteorological observations with the use of normal annual climate parameters calculated by climate models. The results of numerical experiments were used to analyze the sensitivity of the anomaly of Amur normal annual runoff to changes in the climate normals of air temperature and precipitation. The anomalies of normal annual runoff were shown to respond similarly (within the accuracy of sensitivity coefficient estimates) to changes in the appropriate climate normals, whatever the way of specifying climate projections. 相似文献
3.
AbstractThe robustness of the physically-based, semi-distributed hydrological model ECOMAG with respect to changing (climatic or land-use) conditions was evaluated for two basins, considered within the modelling workshop held in the frame of the 2013 IAHS conference in Göteborg, Sweden. The first basin, the Garonne River basin, France, is characterized mostly by changes in climatic conditions, while the second, Obyån Creek, Sweden, was exposed to drastic land cover change due to deforestation. Tests were conducted to evaluate the model’s ability to simulate with acceptable accuracy the changing hydrological regime of each basin and to retain, in the process, relatively stable values of the parameters. Acceptable performance of the ECOMAG model was obtained under the different combinations of the calibration/evaluation periods, including, importantly, the periods of hydrological regime changes in both basins. 相似文献
4.
The study is aimed to evaluate a hydrological simulation model intended for assessing climate change impact. A new test was suggested and applied to evaluate the performance of a physically based model of Selenga River runoff generation. In this test, to calibrate the model, an enhanced Nash–and-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) criterion was used, including trend-oriented reference (benchmark) models instead of the simple reference model used in the original NSE criterion. Next, modifications were made in the Differential Split Sample test (DSS-test) of V. Klemeš (1986), focused on differences in the model performance criteria for climatically contrasting periods, and a new statistical measure was proposed to estimate the significance of these differences. After that, model performance was evaluated for four sites within the catchment, three indicators of interest (daily, monthly, and annual discharge series), and the model ability to reproduce the observed trends in annual and seasonal discharge values was assessed. The model proved robust enough to be applied to assessing climate change impact on the annual and monthly runoff in different parts of the Selenga River basin.
相似文献5.
How the performance of hydrological models relates to credibility of projections under climate change 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Valentina Krysanova Chantal Donnelly Alexander Gelfan Dieter Gerten Berit Arheimer Fred Hattermann 《水文科学杂志》2018,63(5):696-720
Two approaches can be distinguished in studies of climate change impacts on water resources when accounting for issues related to impact model performance: (1) using a multi-model ensemble disregarding model performance, and (2) using models after their evaluation and considering model performance. We discuss the implications of both approaches in terms of credibility of simulated hydrological indicators for climate change adaptation. For that, we discuss and confirm the hypothesis that a good performance of hydrological models in the historical period increases confidence in projected impacts under climate change, and decreases uncertainty of projections related to hydrological models. Based on this, we find the second approach more trustworthy and recommend using it for impact assessment, especially if results are intended to support adaptation strategies. Guidelines for evaluation of global- and basin-scale models in the historical period, as well as criteria for model rejection from an ensemble as an outlier, are also suggested. 相似文献
6.
In this paper, possible ways to increase effectiveness of the long-term ensemble spring floods forecasting and to assess their uncertainty based on the physical-mathematical model of the runoff formation (for the Vyatka River case study) are studied. It is shown that deterministic forecasts issued by using this approach are more accurate than those obtained from the traditional forecasting methods based on regression relationships. Probabilistic methods of forecasting of the spring flood volume and maximum discharge, which are issued by using various ways of the weather ensembles setting, are compared. Reliability of probabilistic forecasts of the volume and maximum discharge is estimated. 相似文献
7.
The method of the plotting of probabilistic distributions of maximum runoff characteristics on the base of the dynamic-stochastic
model of the river runoff formation, enabling to take account of the changes in runoff formation conditions caused by the
anthropogenic activity at the river catchment, is described. To approximate the plotted distributions, it is proposed to use
Johnson distribution where one of parameters is assumed to be equal to the deterministic estimate of the limiting value of
the runoff characteristic. It is assumed that such an approach will increase the accuracy of the determination of the runoff
values of small exceedance probabilities. The potential of the proposed method is shown by the example of determination of
probabilistic characteristics of the River Vyatka maximum runoff. 相似文献
8.
A spatial model is proposed of snowmelt-rainfall runoff formation of the mountain river enabling to take account of spatial
inhomogeneity of the river catchment and vertical zoning of physiographic and meteorological conditions. The model describes
the processes of snow cover formation at various altitudes and snow melting, infiltration into the soils, evaporation, and
overland, subsurface and riverbed flows. The verification of the model was carried out from the observational data in the
Kuban River basin up to the town of Armavir. 相似文献
9.
Water Resources - A quantitative estimate is given to the hypothesis, explaining the paleogeographic data on the extremely high water abundance in rivers in the Caspian Basin in the period when the... 相似文献
10.
Gelfan A. N. Gusev E. M. Kalugin A. S. Krylenko I. N. Motovilov Yu. G. Nasonova O. N. Millionshchikova T. D. Frolova N. L. 《Water Resources》2022,49(3):351-365
Water Resources - The present overview is the second part of the article “Runoff of Russian Rivers Under Current and Projected Climate Change: A Review,” which focuses on modern... 相似文献