Modeling spatially non-stationary land use/cover change in the lower Connecticut River Basin by combining geographically weighted logistic regression and the CA-Markov model   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Hui Wang  Scott R. Stephenson  Shijin Qu 《International journal of geographical information science》2019,33(7):1313-1334

Simulating land use/cover change (LUCC) and determining its transition rules have been a focus of research for several decades. Previous studies used ordinary logistic regression (OLR) to determine transition rules in cellular automata (CA) modeling of LUCC, which often neglected the spatially non-stationary relationships between driving factors and land use/cover categories. We use an integrated geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR) CA-Markov method to simulate LUCC from 2001–2011 over 29 towns in the Connecticut River Basin. Results are compared with those obtained from the OLR-CA-Markov method, and the sensitivity of LUCC simulated by the GWLR-CA-Markov method to the spatial non-stationarity-based suitability map is investigated. Analysis of residuals indicates better goodness of fit in model calibration for geographically weighted regression (GWR) than OLR. Coefficients of driving factors indicate that GWLR outperforms OLR in depicting the local suitability of land use/cover categories. Kappa statistics of the simulated maps indicate high agreement with observed land use/cover for both OLR-CA-Markov and GWLR-CA-Markov methods. Similarity in simulation accuracy between the methods suggests that the sensitivity of simulated LUCC to suitability inputs is low with respect to spatial non-stationarity. Therefore, this study provides critical insight on the role of spatial non-stationarity throughout the process of LUCC simulation.  相似文献   

Numerical Simulation on Flow Past Two Side-by-Side Inclined Circular Cylinders at Low Reynolds Number     

Liu  Cai  Gao  Yang-yang  Qu  Xin-chen  Wang  Bin  Zhang  Bao-feng 《中国海洋工程》2019,33(3):344-355

A series of three-dimensional numerical simulations is carried out to investigate the effect of inclined angle on flow behavior behind two side-by-side inclined cylinders at low Reynolds number Re=100 and small spacing ratio T/D=1.5 (T is the center-to-center distance between two side-by-side cylinders, D is the diameter of cylinder). The instantaneous and time-averaged flow fields, force coefficients and Strouhal numbers are analyzed. Special attention is focused on the axial flow characteristics with variation of the inclined angle. The results show that the inclined angle has a significant effect on the gap flow behaviors behind two inclined cylinders. The vortex shedding behind two cylinders is suppressed with the increase of the inclined angle as well as the flip-flop gap flow. Moreover, the mean drag coefficient, root-mean-square lift coefficient and Strouhal numbers decrease monotonously with the increase of the inclined angle, which follows the independent principle at small inclined angles.

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包兰铁路沙坡头段不同编制结构的枝条阻沙栅栏防护效应风洞模拟     

康文岩  王立  屈建军  卢琴春 《中国沙漠》2020,40(2):94-99

对包兰铁路沙坡头段枝条阻沙栅栏流场结构进行风洞模拟试验。结果表明:气流在经过横向、竖向阻沙栅栏时均出现了明显的流速分区。气流在经过阻沙栅栏时速度会减弱,但是竖向枝条阻沙栅栏的综合阻风防沙效果明显优于横向阻沙栅栏,同时竖向枝条阻沙栅栏制作上具有工序简单、原材料广泛及不受枝条长度限制的特性,因此,在防沙治沙应用中,竖向枝条阻沙栅栏更适合推广。虽然孔隙度是阻沙栅栏设计的重要技术参数,但栅栏结构对风沙流场产生直接影响,是决定着其对风沙活动防护效应高低的关键因子。  相似文献   

基于广义回归神经网络的全球表层海水1°×1°二氧化碳分压数据推演     

钟国荣  李学刚  曲宝晓  王彦俊  袁华茂  宋金明 《海洋学报》2020,42(10):70-79

表层海水二氧化碳分压是评估海洋碳源汇强度的关键参数，但其实测数据较少、时空分布极不均匀，导致二氧化碳交换通量的估算有很大的不确定性，海洋源汇特征就不能确切获取。为了解决这个难题，在收集的表层大洋二氧化碳地图(Surface Ocean CO₂ Atlas，SOCAT)实测数据集基础上，运用广义回归神经网络建立二氧化碳分压与经纬度、时间、温度、盐度和叶绿素浓度间的非线性关系，构建了1998?2018年间全球1°×1°经纬度的表层海水二氧化碳分压格点数据，其标准误差为16.93 μatm，平均相对误差为2.97%，优于现有研究中的前反馈神经网络、自组织映射神经网络和机器学习算法等方法。根据构建的数据所绘制的全球表层海水二氧化碳分压的分布与现有研究有较好的一致性。  相似文献   

A sequential sparse polynomial chaos expansion using Bayesian regression for geotechnical reliability estimations     

Qiujing Pan  Xingru Qu  Leilei Liu  Daniel Dias 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2020,44(6):874-889

Polynomial chaos expansions (PCEs) have been widely employed to estimate failure probabilities in geotechnical engineering. However, PCEs suffer from two deficiencies: (a) PCE coefficients are solved by the least-square minimization method which easily causes overfitting issues; (b) building a high order PCE is often computationally expensive. In order to overcome the aforementioned drawbacks, the Bayesian regression technique is employed to evaluate PCE coefficients, which not only provides a sparse solution but also avoids overfitting. With the aid of the predictive means and variances given by Bayesian analysis, a learning function is proposed to sequentially select the most informative samples that are critical to build a PCE. This sequential learning scheme can highly enhance the computational efficiency of PCEs. Besides, importance sampling (IS) is incorporated into the sequential learning (SL)-PCEs to deal with geotechnical problems with small failure probabilities. The proposed method of SL-PCE-IS is applied to three illustrative examples, which shows that the improved PCE method is more effective and efficient than the common PCEs method, leading to accurate estimations of small failure probabilities using fewer training samples.  相似文献   

Mass motion in upper solar chromosphere detected from solar eclipse observation     

Zhi Li  Zhongquan Qu  Xiaoli Yan  Guangtao Dun  Liang Chang 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2016,361(5):159

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二价铁氧化对铁锰循环功能微生物活性的影响及机制          下载免费PDF全文

屈婧祎  童曼  袁松虎 《地球科学》2021,46(2):632-641

地质微生物是沉积环境中铁、锰氧化还原循环的主要驱动因子,铁锰共存环境中二价铁氧化对不同铁、锰循环功能微生物活性的影响差异和机制尚不清楚.以铁还原菌Shewanella oneidensis MR-1、铁氧化菌Pseudogulbenkiania sp.strain 2002、锰氧化菌Pseudomonas putida MnB1和Leptothrix discophora SS-1作为代表性的铁、锰循环功能微生物,利用平板计数、荧光显微镜等手段探究了Fe(II)氧化对功能微生物活性的影响差异及机制.结果表明0.05 mM Fe2+氧化60 min可使MR-1和MnB1的活菌数量降低4~5个数量级,SS-1及S.2002无显著失活.Fe(II)氧化产生的吸附态。OH和胞内。OH是细菌失活的主要原因,胞外H₂O₂、胞外游离态。OH和三价铁氧化物是细菌失活的次要原因,SS-1及S.2002产生了氧化应激反应,成功抵御了活性氧化物种.   相似文献   

从反射地震剖面认识龙门山断裂带彭灌杂岩深部结构          下载免费PDF全文

于明羽  于常青  瞿辰  王琪  曾祥芝  田镇瑜  郑晓杰 《地球科学》2021,46(5):1737-1748

彭灌杂岩位于龙门山断裂带中段,是龙门山区域地质构造重要组成部分.通过对一条穿过彭灌杂岩中部的深地震反射剖面进行分析解释,描述该区域彭灌杂岩深部结构特征及形成机制.地震反射剖面分析表明彭灌杂岩在纵深上存在分层结构,且彭灌杂岩存在底界面,在该区域表现出无根特征,参考岩体层倾向推断原岩应来自现位置西北方向更深部;同时剖面能量图上映秀-北川深部断裂位置发育在彭灌杂岩体不同分层间隙,未破坏彭灌杂岩主岩体深部结构,彭灌杂岩体浅部的断层发育与龙门山地表断裂系统一致,表明彭灌杂岩成岩时间早于龙门山构造运动;综合岩性及成岩时间推断彭灌杂岩源于现有位置的西北方向大陆基底,由印支期板块运动中松潘陆块基底物质多期次上涌形成,并在喜山运动期受到西北方向应力推覆隆起到达目前位置.   相似文献   

水合物地层低热固井水泥浆用相变微胶囊的制备及应用          下载免费PDF全文

杨国坤  汪爱明  尹舒婷  代天  刘天乐  蒋国盛 《探矿工程》2021,48(3):118-124

当深海固井遇到天然气水合物地层时,由于水泥浆水化放热,导致水合物的相变平衡条件发生改变,诱发水合物分解,引起二界面胶结质量下降等问题。为提高水合物地层固井质量,可向水泥浆中添加具有吸热控温作用的相变微胶囊,可有效降低固井水泥浆的水化升温。基于此,以配比石蜡为控温芯材、碳酸钙为壁材,利用自组装法制备了一种使用于深水水合物地层固井水泥浆控温微胶囊。由于固井水泥浆在达到水合物地层的过程中,外界温度环境复杂,单一相变温度的控温芯材极易失效。为扩展控温区间,选用切片石蜡与白油作为混合芯材,控温区间达到14.8~39.8 ℃。研究表明,该微胶囊表观形态良好、彼此无团聚,在热循环过程中,不易发生泄漏。与水泥浆复配后,对水泥浆流变性能无明显影响。在低掺加量时,微胶囊主要起降低水泥浆峰值温度的效果,并提升水泥石整体力学强度;高掺加量时,微胶囊既可以有效降低水泥浆峰值温度,也可以明显地延缓水泥浆放热速率。  相似文献   

陆地生态系统碳汇在实现“双碳”目标中的作用和建议     

王国胜  孙涛  昝国盛  王棒  孔祥吉 《中国地质调查》2021,8(4):13-19

2030年前实现碳达峰、2060年前实现碳中和(简称“双碳”)是我国对国际社会的庄严承诺,已被纳入生态文明建设的总体布局。生态系统碳汇是实现“双碳”目标的重要手段,也是林业和草原实现高质量发展的必然要求。国际有关机构对全球森林、草地和湿地生态系统的碳储量和碳循环进行了评估。自1990年以来,附件一国家(指《联合国气候变化框架公约》附件一列出的经济合作发展组织中所有发达国家和经济转型国家)对本国的碳排放和碳汇进行估算,编制了年度温室气体清单; 我国也编制了5次国家温室气体清单。这些工作对我国开展应对气候变化的研究提供了基础。提出了如下建议: 在编制“双碳” 路线图和时间表时,既要考虑我国生态系统碳汇与能源和工业领域碳排放在区域空间分布和时间维度上的差异性,也要考虑生态系统同时所具有的碳汇和碳排放的特殊性; 生态系统碳汇是碳达峰的非选项,是碳中和的必选项; 生态系统碳汇要遵循国家实现“双碳”目标的基本原则,要将生态系统碳汇作为国家生态建设和保护工程的主要目标,提高碳汇计量和监测能力,完善市场和融资机制。  相似文献