Modeling spatially non-stationary land use/cover change in the lower Connecticut River Basin by combining geographically weighted logistic regression and the CA-Markov model   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Hui Wang  Scott R. Stephenson  Shijin Qu 《International journal of geographical information science》2019,33(7):1313-1334

Simulating land use/cover change (LUCC) and determining its transition rules have been a focus of research for several decades. Previous studies used ordinary logistic regression (OLR) to determine transition rules in cellular automata (CA) modeling of LUCC, which often neglected the spatially non-stationary relationships between driving factors and land use/cover categories. We use an integrated geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR) CA-Markov method to simulate LUCC from 2001–2011 over 29 towns in the Connecticut River Basin. Results are compared with those obtained from the OLR-CA-Markov method, and the sensitivity of LUCC simulated by the GWLR-CA-Markov method to the spatial non-stationarity-based suitability map is investigated. Analysis of residuals indicates better goodness of fit in model calibration for geographically weighted regression (GWR) than OLR. Coefficients of driving factors indicate that GWLR outperforms OLR in depicting the local suitability of land use/cover categories. Kappa statistics of the simulated maps indicate high agreement with observed land use/cover for both OLR-CA-Markov and GWLR-CA-Markov methods. Similarity in simulation accuracy between the methods suggests that the sensitivity of simulated LUCC to suitability inputs is low with respect to spatial non-stationarity. Therefore, this study provides critical insight on the role of spatial non-stationarity throughout the process of LUCC simulation.  相似文献   

Numerical Simulation on Flow Past Two Side-by-Side Inclined Circular Cylinders at Low Reynolds Number     

Liu  Cai  Gao  Yang-yang  Qu  Xin-chen  Wang  Bin  Zhang  Bao-feng 《中国海洋工程》2019,33(3):344-355

A series of three-dimensional numerical simulations is carried out to investigate the effect of inclined angle on flow behavior behind two side-by-side inclined cylinders at low Reynolds number Re=100 and small spacing ratio T/D=1.5 (T is the center-to-center distance between two side-by-side cylinders, D is the diameter of cylinder). The instantaneous and time-averaged flow fields, force coefficients and Strouhal numbers are analyzed. Special attention is focused on the axial flow characteristics with variation of the inclined angle. The results show that the inclined angle has a significant effect on the gap flow behaviors behind two inclined cylinders. The vortex shedding behind two cylinders is suppressed with the increase of the inclined angle as well as the flip-flop gap flow. Moreover, the mean drag coefficient, root-mean-square lift coefficient and Strouhal numbers decrease monotonously with the increase of the inclined angle, which follows the independent principle at small inclined angles.

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Differential physiological responses of the coastal cyanobacterium <Emphasis Type="Italic">Synechococcus</Emphasis> sp. PCC7002 to elevated <Emphasis Type="Italic">p</Emphasis>CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> at lag,exponential, and stationary growth phases     

Shanli Mou  Gang Li  Hongmei Li  Fazhong Li  Zhisheng Shao  Jinsong Li  Changfeng Qu  Yongyu Zhang 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2018,61(10):1397-1405

We studied the effects of expected end-of-the-century pCO₂ (1000 ppm) on the photosynthetic performance of a coastal marine cyanobacterium Synechococcus sp. PCC7002 during the lag, exponential, and stationary growth phases. Elevated pCO₂ significantly stimulated growth, and enhanced the maximum cell density during the stationary phase. Under ambient pCO₂ conditions, the lag phase lasted for 6 days, while elevated pCO₂ shortened the lag phase to two days and extended the exponential phase by four days. The elevated pCO₂ increased photosynthesis levels during the lag and exponential phases, but reduced them during the stationary phase. Moreover, the elevated pCO₂ reduced the saturated growth light (Ik) and increased the light utilization efficiency (α) during the exponential and stationary phases, and elevated the phycobilisome:chlorophyll a (Chl a) ratio. Furthermore, the elevated pCO₂ reduced the particulate organic carbon (POC):Chl a and particulate organic nitrogen (PON):Chl a ratios during the lag and stationary phases, but enhanced them during the exponential phase. Overall, Synechococcus showed differential physiological responses to elevated pCO₂ during different growth phases, thus providing insight into previous studies that focused on only the exponential phase, which may have biased the results relative to the effects of elevated pCO₂ in ecology or aquaculture.  相似文献   

辽宁省春玉米全育期的气候适宜度及年景评估     

曹永强  齐静威  王菲  李玲慧  路洁 《地理科学》2020,40(7):1210-1220

为评价气候变化对玉米生长的影响，以辽宁省为例选取1969—2018年18个气象站点的逐日实测气象数据，利用模糊数学法建立春玉米气候适宜度评估模型，以地理信息技术为依托，探究春玉米气候适宜度的时空特征，并在此基础上进行玉米气候年景的综合评估。结果表明：① 辽宁省春玉米全生育期内日照、温度、降水适宜度波动幅度较大；然而春玉米种植气候适宜度的空间差异性较弱。② 春玉米各生育期气候适宜度由高到低为：出苗期>开花期>成熟期>播种期。全生育期温度适宜度最高，日照适宜度次之，降水适宜度最低。③ 春玉米播种期、出苗期、开花期和成熟期的气候适宜度最高值分别出现在辽阳、葫芦岛、营口和铁岭。④ 春玉米气候年景准确率达64%，表明该评估方法可以较为准确地反映气候年景。近50 a辽宁省春玉米偏好的年景有4个年份（1971、1979、1993、1998年），较差的有1969年（4.98%）及1973年（5.59%）。  相似文献   

包兰铁路沙坡头段不同编制结构的枝条阻沙栅栏防护效应风洞模拟     

康文岩  王立  屈建军  卢琴春 《中国沙漠》2020,40(2):94-99

对包兰铁路沙坡头段枝条阻沙栅栏流场结构进行风洞模拟试验。结果表明:气流在经过横向、竖向阻沙栅栏时均出现了明显的流速分区。气流在经过阻沙栅栏时速度会减弱,但是竖向枝条阻沙栅栏的综合阻风防沙效果明显优于横向阻沙栅栏,同时竖向枝条阻沙栅栏制作上具有工序简单、原材料广泛及不受枝条长度限制的特性,因此,在防沙治沙应用中,竖向枝条阻沙栅栏更适合推广。虽然孔隙度是阻沙栅栏设计的重要技术参数,但栅栏结构对风沙流场产生直接影响,是决定着其对风沙活动防护效应高低的关键因子。  相似文献   

基于广义回归神经网络的全球表层海水1°×1°二氧化碳分压数据推演     

钟国荣  李学刚  曲宝晓  王彦俊  袁华茂  宋金明 《海洋学报》2020,42(10):70-79

表层海水二氧化碳分压是评估海洋碳源汇强度的关键参数，但其实测数据较少、时空分布极不均匀，导致二氧化碳交换通量的估算有很大的不确定性，海洋源汇特征就不能确切获取。为了解决这个难题，在收集的表层大洋二氧化碳地图(Surface Ocean CO₂ Atlas，SOCAT)实测数据集基础上，运用广义回归神经网络建立二氧化碳分压与经纬度、时间、温度、盐度和叶绿素浓度间的非线性关系，构建了1998?2018年间全球1°×1°经纬度的表层海水二氧化碳分压格点数据，其标准误差为16.93 μatm，平均相对误差为2.97%，优于现有研究中的前反馈神经网络、自组织映射神经网络和机器学习算法等方法。根据构建的数据所绘制的全球表层海水二氧化碳分压的分布与现有研究有较好的一致性。  相似文献   

莱州湾大型底栖动物群落结构及其动态变化特征   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

袁伟  王俊  左涛  牛明香  栾青杉  时永强  孙坚强 《海洋学报》2020,42(6):52-61

本文以莱州湾2009年夏季(8月)、秋季(10月)及2010年春季(5月)、夏季(8月)4个季节大型底栖动物资料为基础，对莱州湾大型底栖动物的种类组成、丰度、生物量、优势种进行了研究，同时与历史资料进行对比，探讨了莱州湾大型底栖动物的群落结构特征及动态变化。4个航次中共鉴定出大型底栖动物272种，其中包括环节动物多毛类122种，软体动物46种，甲壳动物64种，棘皮动物18种，鱼类9种，其他类13种。调查海域平均丰度为(1102.56 ± 216.32) ind./m2, 多毛类在丰度上占绝对优势；平均生物量为(28.16 ± 8.45) g/m2，软体动物占据优势。丰度和生物量空间分布规律具有很强的相似性，低值区位于莱州湾西部黄河口邻近海域，高值区位于渤海中部海域。丰度和生物量季节变化明显，夏季最高，秋季其次，春季最低。多毛类不倒翁虫(Sternaspis sculata)、寡鳃齿吻沙蚕(Nephthys oligobranchia)、紫壳阿文蛤(Alvenius ojianus)等是莱州湾调查海域的优势种。通过与历史资料的对比发现，莱州湾大型底栖动物种类组成及优势种类出现小型化的趋势。  相似文献   

营养限制对三种浮游动物的影响   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

陈蕾  李超伦  周孔霖  时永强  刘梦坛 《海洋学报(英文版)》2018,37(4):58-68

Nutrient imbalance—a mismatch in nutrient ratios between the available food supply and the demands of consumers—has the potential to be transported up food chains,exposing zooplankton to nutrient limitations.In this study,the response of Calanus sinicus(copepod),Moina mongolica(cladocera),and Brachionus plicatilis(rotifer) to nutrient-limited(no-limited,P-limited,and N-limited) food were evaluated from the perspective of growth,reproduction,and stoichiometric homoeostasis.The results indicated that the growth of three species was suppressed under nutrient-limited(especially P-limited) conditions.However,the effect of nutrient limitations on their reproduction was species-specific.For C.sinicus,the dietary UFA(unsaturated fatty acid) as a major phospholipid component affected their egg production and total FA supporting energy promoted the hatchability of eggs.Furthermore,excess carbon in the diet promoted egg production but reduced hatching success.For M.mongolica,nutritional(P and UFA) and energy(total FA) support affected their fecundity.B.plicatilis fecundity exhibited the same pattern of growth(no-limitedN-limitedP-limited).In terms of stoichiometric homeostasis,B.plicatilis' s elemental compositions were less likely to be affected by nutrient limitations than M.mongolica.We suggest that the effects of nutrient imbalances could potentially become an evolutionary force affecting ecosystem structure and stability in eutrophic waters.  相似文献   

Assessment of calanchi and rill–interrill erosion susceptibilities using terrain analysis and geostochastics: A case study in the Oltrepo Pavese,Northern Apennines,Italy     

Alberto Bosino  Paolo Giordani  Geraldine Quénéhervé  Michael Maerker 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(12):3025-3041

Soil erosion is one of the most important environmental problems distributed worldwide. In the last decades, numerous studies have been published on the assessment of soil erosion and the related processes and forms using empirical, conceptual and physically based models. For the prediction of the spatial distribution, more and more sophisticated stochastic modelling approaches have been proposed – especially on smaller spatial scales such as river basins. In this work, we apply a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to evaluate badlands (calanchi) and rill–interrill (sheet erosion) areas in the Oltrepo Pavese (Northern Apennines, Italy). The aim of the work is to assess the important environmental predictors that influence calanchi and rill–interrill erosion at the regional scale. We used 13 topographic parameters derived from a 12 m digital elevation model (TanDEM-X) and data on the lithology and land use. Additional information about the vegetation is introduced through the normalized difference vegetation index based on remotely sensed data (ASTER images). The results are presented in the form of susceptibility maps showing the spatial distribution of the occurrence probability for calanchi and rill–interrill erosion. For the validation of the MaxEnt model results, a support vector machine approach was applied. The models show reliable results and highlight several locations of the study area that are potentially prone to future soil erosion. Thus, coping and mitigation strategies may be developed to prevent or fight the soil erosion phenomenon under consideration. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Risk assessment through multivariate analysis on the magnitude and occurrence date of daily storm events in the Shenzhen bay area     

Jing-Cheng Han  Yang Zhou  Yuefei Huang  Xiaofeng Wu  Zhe Liu  Yongqiang Wang 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2020,34(5):669-689

Multivariate storm frequency modeling would help to gain improved understanding of complex storm process, and provide useful information for regulating flooding risk. In this paper, the dependency...  相似文献