Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example     

Ida K. Westerberg  Keith J. Beven  Gemma Coxon  Tobias Krueger 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(Z2):1705-1713

ABSTRACT

Characterizing, understanding and better estimating uncertainties are key concerns for drawing robust conclusions when analyzing changing socio-hydrological systems. Here we suggest developing a perceptual model of uncertainty that is complementary to the perceptual model of the socio-hydrological system and we provide an example application to flood risk change analysis. Such a perceptual model aims to make all relevant uncertainty sources – and different perceptions thereof – explicit in a structured way. It is a first step to assessing uncertainty in system outcomes that can help to prioritize research efforts and to structure dialogue and communication about uncertainty in interdisciplinary work.  相似文献   

Growth and grazing rate dynamics of major phytoplankton groups in an oligotrophic coastal site   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Andrés Gutiérrez-Rodríguez  Mikel Latasa  Renate Scharek  Ramon Massana  Gemma Vila  Josep M. Gasol 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2011

There has been more attention to phytoplankton dynamics in nutrient-rich waters than in oligotrophic ones thus requiring the need to study the dynamics and responses in oligotrophic waters. Accordingly, phytoplankton community in Blanes Bay was overall dominated by Prymnesiophyceae, remarkably constant throughout the year (31 ± 13% Total chlorophyll a, Tchl a) and Bacillariophyta with a more episodic appearance (20 ± 23% Tchl a). Prasinophyceae and Synechococcus contribution became substantial in winter (Prasinophyceae = 30% Tchl a) and summer (Synechococcus = 35% Tchl a). Phytoplankton growth and grazing mortality rates for major groups were estimated by dilution experiments in combination with high pressure liquid chromatography and flow cytometry carried out monthly over two years. Growth rates of total phytoplankton (range = 0.30–1.91 d⁻¹) were significantly higher in spring and summer (μ > 1.3 d⁻¹) than in autumn and winter (μ ∼ 0.65 d⁻¹) and showed a weak dependence on temperature but a significant positive correlation with day length. Microzooplankton grazing (range = 0.03–1.4 d⁻¹) was closely coupled to phytoplankton growth. Grazing represented the main process for loss of phytoplankton, removing 60 ± 34% (±SD) of daily primary production and 70 ± 48% of Tchl a stock. Chla synthesis was highest during the Bacillarophyceae-dominated spring bloom (Chl a_synt = 2.3 ± 1.6 μg Chl a L⁻¹ d⁻¹) and lowest during the following post-bloom conditions dominated by Prymnesiophyceae (Chl a_synt = 0.23 ± 0.08 μg Chl a L⁻¹ d⁻¹). This variability was smoothed when expressed in carbon equivalents mainly due to the opposite dynamics of C:chl a (range = 11–135) and chl a concentration (range = 0.07–2.0 μg chl a L⁻¹). Bacillariophyta and Synechococcus contribution to C fluxes was higher than to biomass because of their fast-growth rate. The opposite was true for Prymnesiophyceae.  相似文献   

Understanding the fate of iron in a modern temperate estuary: Leirárvogur,Iceland     

Gemma M. Byrne  Richard H. Worden  David M. Hodgson  David A. Polya  Paul R. Lythgoe  Craig D. Barrie  Adrian J. Boyce 《Applied Geochemistry》2011

Fluvial dissolved Fe concentrations decrease upon mixing with seawater, resulting in the formation of Fe-floccules. However, a clear understanding of the fate of these floccules has yet to be established. Assessing how tidal processes affect the formation of Fe-colloids in the Leirárvogur estuary, SW Iceland, is an important step in understanding the formation and potential deposition of estuarine Fe-rich minerals within this estuarine system. The Leirárvogur estuary drains predominately Fe-rich basalt, increasing the likelihood of detecting changes in Fe-phases. Fluvial waters and local lake waters that drain into the estuary were compared and the effects of seasonal changes were considered, in an attempt to understand how varying end-members and external factors play a role in Fe-rich mineral formation. Aqueous and colloidal Fe concentrations were found to be greater towards the head of the Leirárvogur estuary, suggesting that potential Fe-rich minerals and complexes are forming at sites of fluvial input. Increasing suspended colloidal Fe towards the estuary mouth suggests that Fe-colloids are readily transported seaward.  相似文献   

Hydrological characterization of dammed rivers in the NW Mediterranean region          下载免费PDF全文

Gemma Piqué  Ramon J. Batalla  Sergi Sabater 《水文研究》2016,30(11):1691-1707

Water scarcity and climatic variability in the Mediterranean region have traditionally required the construction of dams to guarantee water supply for irrigation, industrial and urban uses and hydropower production. Reservoirs affect the hydrology of the river downstream, but the magnitude and persistence of these effects are still poorly unknown. Understanding the magnitude of these effects is the objective of this paper, in which we analyse the flow regimes of twelve rivers located in the NW Mediterranean region. Different temporal scales (daily, monthly and annual) are used for the analysis and also to estimate flow variables associated with flow magnitude, frequency, duration and variability. It is shown that dams alter the hydrological regime of most of the studied rivers, with special influence on monthly flows and flood magnitude and frequency. The most altered rivers (Muga and Siurana, NE Iberian Peninsula) experience a complete overturn in their flow regime with, for instance, flood reduction reaching up to 76% for the 2‐year flood event. Other rivers showed lower changes in hydrology (e.g. Orb and Têt). Annual runoff showed a pattern of decrease in all the studied rivers (regulated and non‐regulated) indicating that besides dams (i.e. reservoir evaporation), other factors likely affect water yield. A general recovery downstream from dams is also observed at all temporal scales, mainly because of the inflow from tributaries. Although dams have a clear impact on the hydrology of Mediterranean rivers, water withdrawals and diversions for irrigation and other consumptive uses also affected the hydrological patterns. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Growth and feeding patterns of European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) early life stages in the Aegean Sea (NE Mediterranean)     

Ignacio A. Catalán  Arild Folkvord  Isabel Palomera  Gemma Quílez-Badía  Fotini Kallianoti  Anastasios Tselepides  Argyris Kallianotis 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2010

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Gas hydrate disturbance fabrics of southern Hydrate Ridge sediments (ODP Leg 204): Relationship with texture and physical properties   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Elena Piñero  Eulàlia Gràcia  Francisca Martínez-Ruiz  Juan Cruz Larrasoaña  Alexis Vizcaino  Gemma Ercilla 《Geo-Marine Letters》2007,27(2-4):279-288

Soupy and mousse-like fabrics are disturbance sedimentary features that result from the dissociation of gas hydrate, a process that releases water. During the core retrieval process, soupy and mousse-like fabrics are produced in the gas hydrate-bearing sediments due to changes in pressure and temperature conditions. Therefore, the identification of soupy and mousse-like fabrics can be used as a proxy for the presence of gas hydrate in addition to other evidence, such as pore water freshening or anomalously cool temperature. We present here grain-size results, mineralogical composition and magnetic susceptibility data of soupy and mousse-like samples from the southern Hydrate Ridge (Cascadia accretionary complex) acquired during Leg 204 of the Ocean Drilling Program. In order to study the relationship between sedimentary texture and the presence of gas hydrates, we have compared these results with the main textural and compositional data available from the same area. Most of the disturbed analyzed samples from the summit and the western flank of southern Hydrate Ridge show a mean grain size coarser than the average mean grain size of the hemipelagic samples from the same area. The depositional features of the sediments are not recognised due to disturbance. However, their granulometric statistical parameters and distribution curves, and magnetic susceptibility logs indicate that they correspond to a turbidite facies. These results suggest that gas hydrates in the southern Hydrate Ridge could form preferentially in coarser grain-size layers that could act as conduits feeding gas from below the BSR. Two samples from the uppermost metres near the seafloor at the summit of the southern Hydrate Ridge show a finer mean grain-size value than the average of hemipelagic samples. They were located where the highest amount of gas hydrates was detected, suggesting that in this area the availability of methane gas was high enough to generate gas hydrates, even within low-permeability layers. The mineralogical composition of the soupy and mousse-like sediments does not show any specific characteristic with respect to the other samples from the southern Hydrate Ridge.  相似文献   

Evolution of the late Quaternary San Gregorio Magno tectono‐karstic basin (southern Italy) inferred from geomorphological,tephrostratigraphical and palaeoecological analyses: tectonic implications     

G. Aiello  A. Ascione  D. Barra  R. Munno  P. Petrosino  E. Russo Ermolli  F. Villani 《第四纪科学杂志》2007,22(3):233-245

The Pantano di San Gregorio Magno is a 4.7 km² large tectono‐karstic basin located in the axial belt of the Southern Apennines, an area affected by intense seismicity. The basin was formed in the Middle Pleistocene and is presently undissected. It is filled by lacustrine sediments (clays, silts and pyroclastic sands) passing laterally into alluvial fan deposits. Geomorphological investigations were integrated with tephrostratigraphical, palynological and palaeoecological analyses of a 61 m thick core (not reaching the bedrock). The multiproxy analysis of the S. Gregorio Magno record shows that, over the last 200k yr, the basin hosted a freshwater lake with an oscillating level. Age constraints provided by the tephrostratigraphic record allowed estimation of the sedimentation rate, which varied strongly through time. Evolution of the basin resulted from the complex combination of tectonic subsidence, karst processes and changing amounts of sedimentary inputs. The latter was influenced by allogenic contributions related both to primary and reworked volcanoclastic inputs and was climate‐driven. The overall evidence, which indicates that in the long‐term the accumulation rate substantially counterbalanced the accommodation space created by faulting, suggests that the basin evolution was also modulated by changing subsidence rates. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Dust-induced chemical differentiation in dense regions     

Silvia Casu  Cesare Cecchi-Pestellini  Santi Aiello 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2001,325(2):826-834

Dust grains respond to the physical and chemical conditions of the interstellar region in which they are embedded. The interaction produces an extinction curve which depends on the local environment and on the past history of the dust grains. In this work we present a theoretical study of the effects of radial variations of dust extinction properties on gas-phase chemistry in spherical core–halo clouds. We use observational constraints on the variation range of the extinction curve, and we analyse if the degree of dust environmental processing could be reflected by chemical signatures in the gas-phase molecular concentrations. The results of this work show that significant variations in the photodestruction rates and in the thermal profile of the cloud might induce chemical patterns otherwise excluded in the standard dense-cloud chemistry. Some discrepancies between observations and theoretical provisions are discussed in the light of the present results.  相似文献   

Far-ultraviolet extinction and diffuse interstellar bands     

A. Megier  S. Aiello  B. Barsella  S. Casu  J. Kre&#;owski 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2001,326(3):1095-1100

We relate the equivalent widths of the major diffuse interstellar bands (DIBs) near 5797 and 5780 Å with different colour excesses, normalized by E ( B − V ) , which characterize the growth of interstellar extinction in different wavelength ranges. It is demonstrated that the two DIBs correlate best with different parts of the extinction curve, and the ratio of these diffuse bands is best correlated with the far-ultraviolet (UV) rise. A number of peculiar lines of sight are also found, indicating that the carriers of some DIBs and the far-UV extinction can be separated in certain environments, e.g. towards the Per OB2 association.  相似文献   

Porous interstellar grains     

M. A. Iatì  C. Cecchi-Pestellini  D. A. Williams  F. Borghese  P. Denti  R. Saija  S. Aiello 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2001,322(4):749-756

Recent observations of stellar composition suggest that elements in the Sun are significantly more abundant than in other stars. The reduction in the available element budget implies a drastic revision in current models of interstellar dust. Theoretical models are therefore exploring fluffy, porous physical structure for the grain material. Since a detailed exact treatment of extinction cross-sections is mandatory for a correct understanding of the nature of interstellar dust, we present a technique based on the multipole expansions of the electromagnetic field, which has proven to be general, flexible and powerful in treating scattering of light by porous, composite, arbitrarily shaped particles. The results of this study speak in favour of core–mantle structures characterized by the presence of porosities.  相似文献