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According to the principle of the eruption of debris flows, the new torrent classification techniques are brought forward. The torrent there can be divided into 4 types such as the debris flow torrent with high destructive strength, the debris flow torrent, high sand-carrying capacity flush flood torrent and common flush flood by the techniques. In this paper, the classification indices system and the quantitative rating methods are presented. Based on torrent classification, debris flow torrent hazard zone mapping techniques by which the debris flow disaster early-warning object can be ascertained accurately are identified. The key techniques of building the debris flow disaster neural network (NN)real time forecasting model are given detailed explanations in this paper, including the determination of neural node at the input layer, the output layer and the implicit layer, the construction of knowledge source and the initial weight value and so on. With this technique, the debris flow disaster real-time forecasting neural network model is built according to the rainfall features of the historical debris flow disasters, which includes multiple rain factors such as rainfall of the disaster day, the rainfall of 15 days before the disaster day, the maximal rate of rainfall in one hour and ten minutes. It can forecast the probability, critical rainfall of eruption of the debris flows, through the real-time rainfall monitoring or weather forecasting. Based on the torrent classification and hazard zone mapping, combined with rainfall monitoring in the rainy season and real-time forecasting models, the debris flow disaster early-warning system is built. In this system, the GIS technique, the advanced international software and hardware are applied, which makes the system′s performance steady with good expansibility. The system is a visual information system that serves management and decision-making, which can facilitate timely inspect of the variation of the torrent type and hazardous zone, the torrent management, the early-warning of disasters and the disaster reduction and prevention. 相似文献
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以山洪灾害风险评价的多准则决策模型、最大熵模型、信息量模型三种常见模型为研究对象,选取河西走廊和张掖市为地理区划（大中）、市域（小）空间尺度研究区,构建山洪灾害风险评价指标体系,分别完成基于三种模型的两种空间尺度的山洪灾害风险评价制图,基于甘肃省地质灾害调查与区划报告数据从模型验证、空间自相关、精度对比和尺度效应等角度对比分析三个模型应用于不同空间尺度的适应性,并给出优选模型。结果表明：最大熵模型是河西走廊（地理区划）空间尺度上山洪灾害风险评价的优选模型;多准则决策模型不适用于张掖市（市域）空间尺度评价,且三个模型运行结果均没有河西走廊（地理区划）空间尺度上表现良好;三个模型的尺度效应明显,在地理区划空间尺度上应用较良好,缩小至市域空间尺度上模拟结果误差增大;不同空间尺度上,最大熵模型均优于多准则决策模型和信息量模型,适用于地理区划（大中）、市域（小）空间尺度的山洪灾害风险评价。 相似文献
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触发重庆山洪灾害的典型环流和影响系统分析 总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4
通过对触发重庆山洪灾害的31次区域性暴雨的特点以及产生重庆区域性暴雨的典型大气环流形势和主要影响系统的统计分析,结果表明:(1)重庆山洪灾害主要是强降水引起的滑坡、局部泥石流和小溪流的洪涝等灾害,其危害极大;(2)诱发重庆山洪灾害的典型区域性强降水主要出现在5~9月,其中7月出现频率最大;(3)绝大部分区域性强降水过程产生前,在500 hPa中、高纬地区上空形成两脊一槽型(占52%)或两槽一脊型的环流形势(占42%);(4)高原槽(高原切变)、高原涡、副热带高压、西南涡、低空急流、地面冷锋等为其主要影响系统。 相似文献
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根据中奥（奥地利）两国政府１９９２－１９９４年科技合作协议，开展了《北京山区荒溪分类与危险区制图技术研究》．介绍了该研究的目的、方法与成果，根据实践的经验，提出了进一步开展荒溪危险区制图的有关建议． 相似文献
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通过介绍荒溪治理林业工程体系的基本原理,论述了阿尔卑斯山区危险区区划的重要性、产生背景、现状、原理和方法,并对其区划存在的问题和局限性进行了系统分析,以期为我国开展山地自然灾害防治工作提供借鉴资料． 相似文献
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引发广西两次严重山洪地质灾害的暴雨过程分析 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
利用常规观测、卫星云图、雷达探测以及自动站雨量等资料,对2010年6月27—28日和2012年5月20—22日桂西北两次严重山洪地质灾害的气象条件进行了对比分析,结果表明：(1) 强降雨发生在桂西北暴雨区,最大过程雨量＞350 mm,过程最大中尺度雨团和致灾区最大中尺度雨团值分别＞100 mm·h-1和＞70 mm·h-1,集中降雨时段为02—06时。灾害开始于后半夜,发生在最大过程雨量和地质条件脆弱区,不同的地质状况对应不同的灾害;灾害性天气具有区域小、降雨时段集中、过程雨量大、强度强及引发灾害重等特征。(2) 暴雨发生在欧亚地区500 hPa呈两脊一槽型、200 hPa南亚高压脊线贯穿广西上空及季风云系活跃的背景下。高空为槽或低涡、地面为干线或锋面,属低涡暴雨型。(3) 高空要素变化为雨前降压升温、后降温。不稳定能量及层结、低层辐合、中低层涡旋、整层大气的上升运动、高温高湿及水汽强烈辐合是物理量特征。(4) 云图上对流云团生成、合并对强降雨有指示意义,暴雨发生在云团合并发展阶段;TBB值＜200 K可以作为强降雨的指标。低质心强雷达回波产生的列车效应或回波停滞和地形作用是造成强降雨的重要因素,低层辐合、高层辐散导致了强烈的上升运动,有利于强对流的发展与维持。 相似文献
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Empirical Relationships for Debris Flows 总被引：40，自引：10，他引：30
The assessment of the debris flow hazard potential has to rely on semi-quantitative methods. Due to the complexity of the debris-flow process, numerical simulation models of debris flows are still limited with regard to practical applications. Thus, an overview is given of empirical relationships that can be used to estimate the most important parameters of debris-flow behavior. In a possible procedure, an assessment of a maximum debris-flow volume may be followed by estimates of the peak discharge, the mean flow velocity, the total travel distance, and the runout distance on the fan. The applicability of several empirical equations is compared with available field and laboratory data, and scaling considerations are used to discuss the variability of the parameters over a large range of values. Some recommendations are made with regard to the application of the presented relationships by practicing engineers, apart from advocating field reconnaissance and searching for historic events wherever possible. 相似文献
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Field observations on hydraulics and sediment dynamics during extreme floods in two mountain torrents show the influence of man-made constructions such as bridges and check dams, in addition to the sediment supplied naturally by the basin and the channel network, on the formation of hyperconcentrated flows. In the Pyrenean Arás basin, hyperconcentrated flow occurred after collapse of a bridge, which in turn mobilized large volumes of sediment from the stream channel and, subsequently, destroyed a series of check dams. Boulders up to several metres in size were transported in a mixture of sand and fine material. A minimum of 100000 tonnes of sediment were deposited on the alluvial fan during the event. Prior to bridge destruction, mean bedload transport rates had reached 0.4t m−1 s−1 upstream. In the alpine Lainbach basin, the flood was characterized by transportation of large amounts of slope material, including debris flows. Along its main tributary an intensive hyperconcentrated flow occurred during the rising stage, whereas in the main valley smaller flows occurred after failure of check dams. The depth of coarse material deposited reached 80 cm. The effectiveness of the Aràs and Lainbach floods was attained due to exceptional rates of energy expediture. Flood power ranged from 20000 W m−2 to 40000 W m−2 on average. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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山洪灾害监测雨量站网密度分析探讨 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
暴雨是诱发山洪的主要原因,雨量监测站网的布设至关重要。本文采用抽站法和流域水文模型法对江西遂川江流域雨量站网密度进行了分析研究,得出允许误差控制下的最少监测站数量。对比分析站网密度公式计算结果,大流域内的子流域区划对雨量站数量有很大影响。综合考虑流域特征、地形起伏及流域内人口密度、社会经济水平等因素修正的站网密度公式,为无资料地区山洪监测预警系统建设提供参考。 相似文献