江苏海域动态监管业务运行现状及分析          下载免费PDF全文

崔丹丹  吕林  陈艳艳  王厚军 《海洋开发与管理》2020,37(11):9-12

海域动态监管业务是实施海域管理精细化、科学化的重要手段。文章从海域监管工作模式、海域使用动态监测、海域资源调查、分析评价与决策支持成果等方面对江苏海域动态监视监测业务进行梳理，以期为全国海域动态监管业务化拓展提供参考。  相似文献   

煤层底板水害防治智能决策支持系统框架构建     

靳德武  李鹏 《煤田地质与勘探》2021,49(1):161-169

煤层底板突水是华北型煤田煤矿生产过程中一种常见的水害类型,为解决水害防治工程的科学决策问题,进一步提高防治水工程的可靠性,提出构建智能决策支持系统的技术思路。智能决策支持系统是传统决策支持系统与人工智能技术相互融合的产物,在分析底板水害防治决策支持功能需求的基础上,提出“数据-模型-方案”一体化设计流程,从数据导入、模型驱动、智能决策等3个层次构建底板水害防治智能决策支持系统的基本框架。将模型驱动层进一步细分为方法库、模型库、知识图谱构建3项专业化服务,模型库包括底板突水空间点预测模型、疏水降压数值模拟模型、注浆改造工程可靠性分析模型、隔离工程设计模型及底板水害监测预警模型。系统最终输出的决策方案包括底板突水危险性分区、疏水降压Q-t-s方案、区域注浆改造设计及工程可靠性评价、隔离工程设计、底板突水监测预警警情发布。系统通过注浆过程的反馈-控制、突水监测预警的深度学习、疏水降压方案的动态优化等实现其智能决策。智能决策支持系统将会在煤层底板水害防治可靠性保障方面提供新的技术支撑。   相似文献   

Backward automatic calibration for three-dimensional landslide models     

Giacomo Titti  Giulia Bossi  Gordon G.D.Zhou  Gianluca Marcato  Alessandro Pasuto 《地学前缘(英文版)》2021,12(1):231-241

Back-analysis is broadly used for approaching geotechnical problems when monitoring data are available and information about the soils properties is of poor quality.For landslide stability assessment back-analysis calibration is usually carried out by time consuming trial-and-error procedure.This paper presents a new automatic Decision Support System that supports the selection of the soil parameters for three-dimensional models of landslides based on monitoring data.The method considering a pool of possible solutions,generated through permutation of soil parameters,selects the best ten configurations that are more congruent with the measured displacements.This reduces the operator biases while on the other hand allows the operator to control each step of the computation.The final selection of the preferred solution among the ten best-fitting solutions is carried out by an operator.The operator control is necessary as he may include in the final decision process all the qualitative elements that cannot be included in a qualitative analysis but nevertheless characterize a landslide dynamic as a whole epistemological subject,for example on the base of geomorphological evidence.A landslide located in Northeast Italy has been selected as example for showing the system potentiality.The proposed method is straightforward,scalable and robust and could be useful for researchers and practitioners.  相似文献   

Fusion of TerraSAR-x and Landsat ETM+ data for protected area mapping in Uganda     

《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2015

TerraSAR-X satellite acquires very high spatial resolution data with potential for detailed land cover mapping. A known problem with synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data is the lack of spectral information. Fusion of SAR and multispectral data provides opportunities for better image interpretation and information extraction. The aim of this study was to investigate the fusion between TerraSAR-X and Landsat ETM+ for protected area mapping using high pass filtering (HPF), principal component analysis with band substitution (PCA) and principal component with wavelet transform (WPCA). A total of thirteen land cover classes were identified for classification using a non-parametric C 4.5 decision tree classifier. Overall classification accuracies of 74.99%, 83.12% and 85.38% and kappa indices of 0.7220, 0.8100 and 0.8369 were obtained for HPF, PCA and WPCA fusion approaches respectively. These results indicate a high potential for a combined use of TerraSAR-X and Landsat ETM+ data for protected area mapping in Uganda.  相似文献   

Two-stage fuzzy chance-constrained programming: application to water resources management under dual uncertainties   总被引：7，自引：7，他引：0  

P. Guo  G. H. Huang 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2009,23(3):349-359

In this study, a two-stage fuzzy chance-constrained programming (TFCCP) approach is developed for water resources management under dual uncertainties. The concept of distribution with fuzzy probability (DFP) is presented as an extended form for expressing uncertainties. It is expressed as dual uncertainties with both stochastic and fuzzy characteristics. As an improvement upon the conventional inexact linear programming for handling uncertainties in the objective function and constraints, TFCCP has advantages in uncertainty reflection and policy analysis, especially when the input parameters are provided as fuzzy sets, probability distributions and DFPs. TFCCP integrates the two-stage stochastic programming (TSP) and fuzzy chance-constrained programming within a general optimization framework. TFCCP incorporates the pre-regulated water resources management policies directly into its optimization process to analyze various policy scenarios; each scenario has different economic penalty when the promised amounts are not delivered. TFCCP is applied to a water resources management system with three users. Solutions from TFCCP provide desired water allocation patterns, which maximize both the system’s benefits and feasibility. The results indicate that reasonable solutions were generated for objective function values and decision variables, thus a number of decision alternatives can be generated under different levels of stream flows, α-cut levels and fuzzy dominance indices.  相似文献   

Emergency management evaluation by a fuzzy multi-criteria group decision support system   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

Guangquan Zhang  Jun Ma  Jie Lu 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2009,23(4):517-527

Emergency risk management (ERM) is a process which involves dealing with risks to the community arising from emergency events. Emergency management evaluation as one of the important parts of ERM aims assessing and improving social preparedness and organizational ability in identifying, analyzing, and treating emergency risks. This study first develops an emergency management evaluation model. It then proposes an extended fuzzy multi-criteria group evaluation method, which can deal with both subjective and objective criteria under multi-levels by a group of evaluators, for emergency management evaluation. A fuzzy multi-criteria group decision support system (FMCGDSS) is then developed to implement the proposed method for the case of emergency operating center/system evaluation.  相似文献   

Accounting for model error in risk assessments: Alternatives to adopting a bias towards conservative risk estimates in decision models     

Petros Gaganis  Leslie Smith 《Advances in water resources》2008

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广东海岸带可持续发展决策支持系统总体框架     

熊永柱  夏斌  张正栋  包世泰  张美英 《海洋地质前沿》2005,21(4):5-9,i001

在阐述了广东海岸带可持续发展决策支持系统的概念后,根据系统的应用需求,确立了系统的总体目标和功能结构,并重点研究了地理信息技术、空间元数据、空间数据仓库技术和决策支持模型与方法等关键技术,在广东海岸带复杂动态海量多源数据的获取、更新、管理、分析与决策中的重要意义和作用,力求为广东海岸带可持续发展决策支持系统的详细分析设计和开发实践提供规范化的解决方案。  相似文献   

Risk-based drought early warning system in reservoir operation     

Wen-Cheng Huang  Chia-Ching Chou 《Advances in water resources》2008

This paper introduces a risk-based decision process integrated into a drought early warning system (DEWS) for reservoir operation. It is to support policy making under uncertainty for drought management. Aspects of posterior risk, chances of option occurrences and the corresponding options to given chances, are provided to help decision makers to make better decisions. A new risk index is also defined to characterize decision makers’ attitudes toward risk. Decision makers can understand the inclination of attitude associated with any specific probability through accuracy assessment, and learn to adjust their attitudes in decision-making process. As a pioneering experiment, the Shihmen reservoir in northern Taiwan was tested. Over the simulation period (1964–2005), the expected overall accuracy approximated to 77%. The results show that the proposed approach is very practical and should find good use for reservoir operations.  相似文献   

Classifier ensembles for land cover mapping using multitemporal SAR imagery   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Bjrn Waske  Matthias Braun 《ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing》2009,64(5):450-457

SAR data are almost independent from weather conditions, and thus are well suited for mapping of seasonally changing variables such as land cover. In regard to recent and upcoming missions, multitemporal and multi-frequency approaches become even more attractive. In the present study, classifier ensembles (i.e., boosted decision tree and random forests) are applied to multi-temporal C-band SAR data, from different study sites and years. A detailed accuracy assessment shows that classifier ensembles, in particularly random forests, outperform standard approaches like a single decision tree and a conventional maximum likelihood classifier by more than 10% independently from the site and year. They reach up to almost 84% of overall accuracy in rural areas with large plots. Visual interpretation confirms the statistical accuracy assessment and reveals that also typical random noise is considerably reduced. In addition the results demonstrate that random forests are less sensitive to the number of training samples and perform well even with only a small number. Random forests are computationally highly efficient and are hence considered very well suited for land cover classifications of future multifrequency and multitemporal stacks of SAR imagery.  相似文献