A Study of the Extended-range Forecast for the Low Frequency Temperature and High Temperature Weather over the Lower Reaches of Yangtze River Valley in Summer     

Qiuming Yang 《地球科学进展》2018,33(4):385-395

Based on the observational data, the variations of Intraseasonal Oscillation (ISO) of the daily temperatures and its relationships to the high temperature in summer over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley (LYRV) were studied for the period of 1979-2011. It is found that the daily temperatures over LYRV in May-August was mainly of periodic oscillations of 1525, 3060 and 6070 days, and the interannual variation of the intensity of its 3060-day oscillation had a strongly positive correlation with the number of days with daily highest temperature over 35 ℃ in July-August. Low frequency components of daily temperature in the LYRV, and the principal components of the Eastern Asian 850 hPa low frequency temperature, over a time period ranging from 1979 to 2000, were used to establish the Extended Complex Autoregressive model (ECAR) on an extended-range forecast of the 3060-day low frequency temperature over the LYRV. A 11-year independent real-time extended-range forecast was conducted on the extended-range forecast of low frequency component of the temperature over the LYRV in May-August, for the period ranging from 2001 to 2011. These experimental results show that this ECAR model, which is based on a data-driven model, has a good forecast skill at the lead time of approximately 23 days, with a forecast ability superior to the traditional autoregressive (AR) model. Hence, the development and variation of the leading 3060-day modes for the Eastern Asian 850 hPa low frequency temperatures and temporal evolutions of their relationships to low frequency components of the temperature over the LYRV in summer are very helpful in predicting the persistent high temperature over the LYRV at a 20 to 25 days lead.  相似文献   

建筑结构监测与抗震韧性评估     

王飞  康现栋  刘影  陈宏宇 《震灾防御技术》2022,17(3):569-578

建筑结构响应是有效反映结构动力特性的最直接参数,开展结构动力响应实时监测可为结构抗震韧性评估提供准确的地震动输入。本文基于非结构构件损失构建结构抗震韧性评估方法,研究确定位移敏感型和加速度敏感型非结构构件的易损性模型。选择某六层钢筋混凝土框架结构进行实时监测系统建设,基于监测数据开展结构抗震韧性评估。通过构建建筑信息模型（BIM）,并在有限元分析软件OpenSees中建立结构弹塑性分析模型,利用实时监测数据实现结构模型更新,直至监测数据与模型分析结果一致。由于实时监测数据峰值较低,结构不会发生塑性变形,因此选择10条双向非脉冲地震动模拟实时监测地震记录。根据层间位移角和楼面加速度分布,开展结构功能损失评估,得到该建筑结构的抗震韧性得分。分析表明,该结构抗震性能较好,在遭受地震破坏后,会发生非结构构件脱落,需要采取有效措施进一步提升建筑抗震韧性水平。  相似文献   

Rapid report of the 8 January 2022 ​MS 6.9 Menyuan earthquake,Qinghai, China     

Hongfeng Yang  Dun Wang  Rumeng Guo  Mengyu Xie  Yang Zang  Yue Wang  Qiang Yao  Chuang Cheng  Yanru An  Yingying Zhang 《地震研究进展（英文）》2022,2(1):100113

The M_S 6.9 Menyuan earthquake in Qinghai Province, west China is the largest earthquake by far in 2022. The earthquake occurs in a tectonically active region, with a background b-value of 0.87 within 100 ?km of the epicenter that we derived from the unified catalog produced by China Earthquake Networks Center since late 2008. Field surveys have revealed surface ruptures extending 22 ?km along strike, with a maximum ground displacement of 2.1 ?m. We construct a finite fault model with constraints from InSAR observations, which showed multiple fault segments during the Menyuan earthquake. The major slip asperity is confined within 10 ?km at depth, with the maximum slip of 3.5 ?m. Near real-time back-projection results of coseismic radiation indicate a northwest propagating rupture that lasted for ～10 ?s. Intensity estimates from the back-projection results show up to a Mercalli scale of IX near the ruptured area, consistent with instrumental measurements and the observations from the field surveys. Aftershock locations (up to January 21, 2022) exhibit two segments, extending to ～20 ?km in depth. The largest one reaches M_S 5.3, locating near the eastern end of the aftershock zone. Although the location and the approximate magnitude of the mainshock had been indicated by previous studies based on paleoearthquake records and seismic gap, as well as estimated stressing rate on faults, significant surface-breaching rupture leads to severe damage of the high-speed railway system, which poses a challenge in accurately assessing earthquake hazards and risks, and thus demands further investigations of the rupture behaviors for crustal earthquakes.  相似文献   

Algorithms for automatic,real-time tsunami detection in wind–wave measurements Part I: Implementation strategies and basic tests     

Gian Mario Beltrami  Marcello Di Risio 《Coastal Engineering》2011

Several, although not all, wind–wave gages are equipped with sensors capable of detecting sea-level oscillations within the tsunami frequency band. The present paper looks at the algorithms to be implemented in the software of these gages in order to automatically perform the real-time detection of a possible tsunami within recorded signals. In particular, a new algorithm is proposed and tested. The first part of the paper concentrates on the algorithms' characteristics, implementation strategies and basic testing. First of all, the situations in which wind–wave measurements are either essential, or useful for real-time tsunami detection are discussed. In the second place, already existing algorithms are recalled, specifying their characteristics and fields of application. Then, the characteristics of the new proposed algorithm – mainly based on an infinite impulse response, time domain filter – are illustrated and analyzed. Performance and efficiency of the considered algorithms are compared using synthetic time series. The second part of the paper discusses the algorithms' use in the framework of Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS), testing them in actual cases.  相似文献   

实时精密单点定位精度与收敛性分析     

任晓东  何俊  张小红 《全球定位系统》2011,36(4):10-15

介绍了目前国际全球定位系统服务（IGS）组织提供的实时精密轨道和精密钟差改正系数（ROCC）的基本参数以及能够进行实时精密单点定位软件（BNC）（即BKG Ntrip Client,由BKG开发的一款用于实时同步接收、解码及转换的GNSS数据流管理软件）。选取了25个全球IGS跟踪站,并基于BNC软件分析了IGS提供的15种ROCC产品对测站实时精密单点定位精度与收敛性的影响。实验结果表明：采用BNC软件,15种ROCC产品均能在平均15min的时间收敛,并且在N、E方向达到6～8cm,U方向10～20cm的定位精度;且不同ROCC产品其收敛时间和定位精度都存在一定的差异。  相似文献   

斜带石斑鱼(Epinephelus coioides)两种催乳素受体基因的 cDNA 克隆和 mRNA 表达分析     

张勇  马细兰  陈勇智  李水生  陈华谱  刘晓春  林浩然 《海洋与湖沼》2012,43(1):138-146

采用RT-PCR方法克隆了斜带石斑鱼两种催乳素受体(Prolactin receptor,PRLR)的cDNA序列,序列分析表明:PRLR1开放阅读框为1947bp,共编码649个氨基酸,PRLR2开放阅读框为1749bp,共编码487个氨基酸,PRLR1与PRLR2的氨基酸同源性为40.4%。用Real-time RT-PCR方法研究了PRLR1和PRLR2在各组织和早期发育不同阶段的表达情况,结果表明:PRLR1和PRLR2在所检测的12种组织中均有表达,其中以鳃、肾、肠表达量较高;PRLR1在受精期表达最高,PRLR2在视囊形成期表达最高,而且除受精卵期外PRLR2在各时期的表达量均高于PRLR1。  相似文献   

深海潜标ADCP 的实时数据传输   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

赵忠生  袁志伟  黄磊  李延刚  韩雪双  杨宝起  陈海涛 《海洋科学》2012,36(8):94-97

深海潜标观测是深海观测获取长周期海洋科学数据的重要调查手段,由于深海海域环境非常复杂,潜标易丢失或终止正常工作,造成重大损失.本研究基于铱星卫星数据通信模块,开发与深水潜标上安装的RDt 75k ADCP相匹配的数据解析压缩软硬件,建立一套远程实时获取潜标ADCP数据的传输系统,实现对深海潜标ADCP的实时监测.  相似文献   

翘嘴鲌(Culter alburnus)TMEM-57基因的克隆、组织表达和单核苷酸多态性分析     

祁鹏志  郭宝英  谢从新  吴常文  陆诗敏  段友健 《海洋与湖沼》2012,43(6):1196-1201

采用RT-PCR和快速扩增cDNA末端(rapid amplification of cDNA ends,RACE)技术首次克隆了翘嘴鲌TMEM-57蛋白基因的cDNA全序列,该序列全长为2822bp,其中5′-UTR区93bp,3′-UTR区731bp,开放阅读框(open reading frame,ORF)为1998bp,编码665个氨基酸。NJ法系统进化分析将同科或属中TMEM-57基因分成一个分支,表现出种属间的高度保守性。利用荧光定量PCR(qPCR)技术检测了不同组织的表达量,发现在卵巢中表达量最高,其次为心脏和脑。用直接测序法对TMEM-57基因部分区段单核苷酸多态性(SNP)进行了检测,寻找到11个新的SNP位点。  相似文献   

面向山地灾害动态过程仿真的地形三维建模与可视化     

叶健  陶和平  陈锦雄  陈晓清 《山地学报》2012,(2):195-200

基于山地灾害动态过程仿真需要的考虑,并针对该动态过程仿真时渲染数据量过大所造成的实时性较差的问题,提出了利用改进的三角形二叉树LOD算法实现地形三维建模与可视化的方法。算法对山地地形数据进行了分层和分块的预处理,用三角形二叉树表示地形网格,并结合视点和局部地形的粗糙程度,动态的载入所需的地形块和释放无用的地形块,使得内存中的地形数据维持在一定范围内。实验结果表明;在对地形渲染不失真的前提下,本方法能够有效地提高地形绘制的效率,可应用到大规模山地地形的三维建模与可视化中去,为整个山地灾害的动态过程仿真奠定了良好的基础。  相似文献   

新疆泥火山群地震前兆异常实时监测与预报的研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

高小其  王海涛  郑黎明  李娜  朱成英  杨晓芳  汪成国  向阳  梁卉  麻荣 《震灾防御技术》2015,10(3):587-597

基于网络技术的视频监控服务,实现了对新疆北天山地区3个泥火山点的实时监测,可在线实时查看泥火山活动情况,分析预报人员依据泥火山活动图像可开展地震预测研究。新疆艾其沟泥火山网络视频监控服务系统扑捉到了2次6级地震前火山液面明显的宏观异常变化现象,这说明基于宽带网络技术的网络视频监控服务,可实现互联网用户使用客户端远程软件连接服务器,实现在线实时查看泥火山活动情况的监控画面,并依据泥火山群地震观测网,捕捉泥火山群地震前兆异常。  相似文献