Trans-Arctic shipping routes expanding faster than the model projections     

《Global Environmental Change》2022

Rapid declines in Arctic sea ice coverage over the past four decades have increased the commercial feasibility of trans-Arctic routes. However, the historical changes in navigability of trans-Arctic routes remain unclear, and projections by global circulation models (GCMs) contain large uncertainties since they cannot simulate long-term Arctic sea ice changes. In this study, we determined the changes in trans-Arctic routes from 1979 to 2019 by combining two harmonized high-quality daily sea ice products. We found that the trans-Arctic routes are becoming navigable much faster than projected by the GCMs. The navigation season for open water (OW) vessels along the Northeast Passage (NEP) has lengthened from occasionally navigable in the 1980 s to 92 ± 15 days in the 2010 s. In contrast, previous GCM projections have suggested that navigability would not be achieved until the mid-21st century. The 90-day safety shipping area for OW vessels expanded by 35% during 1979–2018, reaching 8.28 million km² in 2018, indicating an increasing rate of 0.08 ± 0.01 million km² per year. The shortest trans-Arctic routes were also shifted further north than the model projections. Regular ships have been able to safely travel north along the islands in the NEP and transit through the M’Clure Strait in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago during the 2010 s, while previous studies have projected that this would not be feasible until the mid-21st century. We also found that the improved navigability of trans-Arctic routes enables commercial ships to transport approximately 33–66% (at the same load factor) more goods from East Asia to Europe during the Arctic shipping season than by the traditional Suez Canal route. These findings highlight the need for aggressive actions to develop mandatory rules that promote navigation safety and strengthen environmental protection in the Arctic.  相似文献   

Assessment of soil erosion in a tropical mountain river basin of the southern Western Ghats,India using RUSLE and GIS   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Jobin Thomas  Sabu Joseph  K.P.Thrivikramji 《地学前缘(英文版)》2018,9(3):893-906

Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation(RUSLE) model coupled with transport limited sediment delivery(TLSD) function was used to predict the longtime average annual soil loss, and to identify the critical erosion-/deposition-prone areas in a tropical mountain river basin, viz., Muthirapuzha River Basin(MRB; area=271.75 km~2), in the southern Western Ghats, India. Mean gross soil erosion in MRB is 14.36 t ha~(-1) yr~(-1), whereas mean net soil erosion(i.e., gross erosion-deposition) is only 3.60 t ha~(-1) yr~(-1)(i.e., roughly 25% of the gross erosion). Majority of the basin area(~86%) experiences only slight erosion(5 t ha~(-1) yr~(-1)), and nearly 3% of the area functions as depositional environment for the eroded sediments(e.g., the terraces of stream reaches, the gentle plains as well as the foot slopes of the plateau scarps and the terrain with concordant summits). Although mean gross soil erosion rates in the natural vegetation belts are relatively higher, compared to agriculture, settlement/built-up areas and tea plantation, the sediment transport efficiency in agricultural areas and tea plantation is significantly high,reflecting the role of human activities on accelerated soil erosion. In MRB, on a mean basis, 0.42 t of soil organic carbon(SOC) content is being eroded per hectare annually, and SOC loss from the 4th order subbasins shows considerable differences, mainly due to the spatial variability in the gross soil erosion rates among the sub-basins. The quantitative results, on soil erosion and deposition, modelled using RUSLE and TLSD, are expected to be beneficial while formulating comprehensive land management strategies for reducing the extent of soil degradation in tropical mountain river basins.  相似文献   

绿色交通目标下集装箱“公转铁”的CO2减排潜力评估     

陶学宗  吴琴  尹传忠 《气候变化研究进展》2019,15(6):660-669

为提高集装箱“公转铁”减排潜力评估结果的准确性,在分析“公转铁”减排原理的基础上,综合考虑空箱调运和重箱运输“门到门”运输链的干线运输、端点装卸、电力设备作业、集卡短驳、公铁中转等排放,引入反映活动类型、设备结构、能源生命周期排放的参数,对作业活动-方式结构-能耗强度-排放因子（ASIF）方法进行改进,建立“公转铁”减排潜力评估框架。以义乌—宁波港域出口集装箱运输为例,通过实地调研和公开文献获取数据,进行实证研究。结果表明,如果忽略必要因素将会导致每TEU运输需求“公转铁”的CO₂减排率被高估0.50~36.73个百分点;最佳“公转铁”情景可减排3.42万t CO₂,相应减排率为13.58%。研究结果可为政府相关部门客观评估“公转铁”的减排潜力、制定有效的“公转铁”政策措施提供理论支持。  相似文献   

油源断裂输导油气通道演化形式的研究方法及其应用     

付广  沙子萱  王宏伟  姜文亚  董雄英 《地质科学》2022,57(1):127-138

为了研究含油气盆地下生上储式油源断裂附近油气分布规律,在不同时期油源断裂输导油气通道及影响因素研究的基础上,通过确定油源断裂伴生裂缝可能发育部位和地层脆性发育部位,识别其活动期输导油气通道。通过断裂填充物泥质含量和填充物输导油气所需的最小泥质含量,识别其停止活动后输导油气通道,二者结合建立了一套油源断裂输导油气通道演化形式的研究方法,并将其应用于渤海湾盆地冀中坳馅廊固凹陷大柳泉地区旧州断裂在沙三中-下亚段内输导油气通道演化形式的研究中,结果表明:旧州断裂在沙三中-下亚段内共发育4种输导通道演化形式,其中一直输导通道演化形式仅分布在F;断裂东部局部和F;断裂的东部端部;先输导后不输导通道演化形式主要分布在F;断裂西部、F;断裂中西部及东部和F;断裂处;先不输导后输导通道演化形式主要分布在除东部局部的F;断裂、F;断裂的中东部;一直不输导通道演化形式主要分布在F;断裂中部、F;断裂和F;断裂交界处及F;断裂东部。一直输导和先输导后不输导通道演化形式分布处或附近应是沙三中-下亚段油气成藏的有利部位,与目前旧州断裂附近沙三中-下亚段已发现油气分布相吻合,表明该方法用于研究油源断裂输导油气通道演化形式是可行的。  相似文献   

长江河口涨、落潮槽内的沙波地貌和输移特征   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

王永红  沈焕庭  李九发  茅志昌 《海洋与湖沼》2011,42(2):330-336

涨、落潮槽是河口区的重要地貌单元,槽内由于不同的优势流作用而表现出不同的泥沙运移特征。沙波是底沙输移的表现,因此研究槽内的沙波特征对于涨、落潮槽的水动力和沉积地貌研究有重要的意义。本文依据现场声纳观测、测深仪测深、表层取样和现场水动力观测等方法获得河槽床面沙波和水动力资料,对沙波的几何形态、波高和全潮周期的迁移距离进行...  相似文献   

Surface circulation downstream of the Point Arena upwelling center     

Christopher M. Halle  John L. Largier 《Continental Shelf Research》2011,31(12):1260-1272

Measurements from recently installed 5 MHz high-frequency radar (CODAR) stations south of Point Arena, California, are used to describe surface current patterns during the upwelling season (June-August 2007). The systems provide hourly current maps on a 5-km grid, covering a region from approximately 10 to 150 km offshore (the continental shelf into the deep ocean). These HF-radar observations provide an unprecedented view of circulation in this “coastal transition zone”, between the wind-driven circulation over the shelf and the California Current circulation offshore. Circulation patterns include: (1) bifurcation of the coastal upwelling jet downstream of Point Arena into an along-shelf (down-coast) branch and an offshore branch, and (2) a large-scale anticyclonic meander that often develops into an eddy-like recirculation south of the bifurcation. The “recirculation” feature extends well offshore, with surface currents 50-100 km from the coast consistently opposing the wind stress. The spatial and temporal evolution of the surface current features during upwelling events affects surface transport from Point Arena to areas in the south, increasing the travel time of a substantial fraction of newly upwelled water from a few days to roughly two weeks. Thus, surface currents even far offshore influence coastal transport of nutrients, phytoplankton and larvae on ecologically relevant timescales, with resultant connectivity patterns very different than implied by a simple examination of the mean flow.  相似文献   

Simulation and Validation of the Aerosol Optical Thicknessover China in 2006     

ZHANG Hu  ZHANG Min  CUI Zhenlei  WANG Yuesi  XIN Jinyuan 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2012,26(3):330-344

  相似文献   

Sub-seasonal variability of Luzon Strait Transport in a high resolution global model   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

ZHANG Zhengguang  ZHAO Wei  LIU Qinyu 《海洋学报(英文版)》2010,29(3):9-17

The Luzon Strait is the main impact pathway of the Kuroshio on the circulation in South China Sea (SCS). Based on the analysis of the 1997–2007 altimeter data and 2005–2006 output data from a high resolution global HYCOM model, the total Luzon Strait Transport (LST) has remarkable subseasonal oscillations with a typical period of 90 to 120 days, and an average value of 1.9 Sv into SCS. Further spectrum analysis shows that the temporal variability of the LST at different depth is remarkable different. In the upper layer (0–300 m), westward inflow has significant seasonal and subseasonal variability. In the bottom layer (below 1 200 m), eastward outflow exhibits remarkable seasonal variability, while subseasonal variability is also clear. In the intermediate layer, the westward inflow is slightly bigger than the eastward outflow, and both of them have obvious seasonal and subseasonal variability. Because the seasonal variation of westward inflow and eastward outflow is opposite, the total transport of intermediate layer exhibits significant 50–150 days variation, without obvious seasonal signals. The westward Rossby waves with a period of 90 to 120 days in the Western Pacific have very clear correlationship with the Luzon Strait Transport, this indicates that the interaction between these westward Rossby waves and Kuroshio might be the possible mechanism of the subseasonal variation of the LST.  相似文献   

King Canute muses in the South Seas: Why aren’t Pacific Islands transitioning to low carbon sea transport futures?     

《Marine Policy》2017

Transition to low carbon sea transport is a logical response to the extreme dependency of the Pacific Islands region on imported fossil fuel, its significant vulnerability to the effects of climate change and the critical shipping needs of Pacific Island countries (PICs). Building on previous work in low carbon sea transport in the Pacific, this paper further considers the barriers to achieving such transition by assessing, through a ‘post-Paris Agreement’ lens, the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) submitted by PICs and contrasting these to the near total lack of investment and planning for low carbon transition in the transport sector with the parallel occurrence in the electricity sector where ~USD 2 billion of donor investment is deployed or queued despite electricity using only ~20% of fossil fuel across the region. Consistent with recent international studies, inadequate and inappropriate financing and policy have been identified as dominant transition barriers for low carbon sea transport development in PICs. This paper further examines the regional level barriers to policy development, and finds them inhibited by the silo nature of the major regional actors. The implications that the Paris Agreement has for climate financing to support the essential research and capacity development needed to underpin a successful low carbon sea transport transition strategy at any useful scale and speed are also considered in this paper.  相似文献   

运输效率研究述评及基于交通运输地理学视角的研究展望   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

吴威  曹有挥  梁双波 《地理科学进展》2013,32(2):243-250

运输效率是衡量运输系统运行状况及发展潜力的综合性指标。国外学者立足经济学与管理学, 在运输效率评价的计量模型、指标体系以及运输效率的影响因素与机理等方面进行了深入分析;国内研究总体上还处于国外研究方法体系与成果引进阶段, 但中国学者开创性地将运输效率与地域空间相结合, 开始关注运输效率的空间格局及其与区域经济系统的耦合研究。近年来, 运输的能源效率与二氧化碳排放效率日渐引起学者的关注。从交通运输地理学角度, 突出运输效率的空间地域性, 在区域运输效率影响因素分析与定量测度基础上, 对运输效率格局、过程、机理及效应展开系统研究, 具有一定科学意义和应用价值。  相似文献