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1.
We assess the tsunami hazard posed to New Zealand by the Kermadec and southern New Hebrides subduction margins. Neither of these subduction zones has produced tsunami large enough to cause significant damage in New Zealand over the past 150?years of well-recorded history. However, as this time frame is short compared to the recurrence interval for major tsunamigenic earthquakes on many of the Earth’s subduction zones, it should not be assumed that what has been observed so far is representative of the long term. For each of these two subduction zones we present plate kinematic and fault-locking results from block modelling of earthquake slip vector data and GPS velocities. The results are used to estimate the current rates of strain accumulation on the plate interfaces where large tsunamigenic earthquakes typically occur. We also review data on the larger historical earthquakes that have occurred on these margins, as well as the Global CMT catalogue of events since 1976. Using this information we have developed a set of scenarios for large earthquakes which have been used as initial conditions for the COMCOT tsunami code to estimate the subsequent tsunami propagation in the southwest Pacific, and from these the potential impact on New Zealand has been evaluated. Our results demonstrate that there is a significant threat posed to the Northland and Coromandel regions of New Zealand should a large earthquake (M w ?8.5) occur on the southern or middle regions of the Kermadec Trench, and that a similarly large earthquake on the southern New Hebrides Trench has the potential to strongly impact on the far northern parts of New Zealand close to the southern end of the submarine Three Kings Ridge. We propose logic trees for the magnitude–frequency parameters of large earthquakes originating on each trench, which are intended to form the basis for future probabilistic studies.  相似文献   

2.
Regional source tsunamis pose a potentially devastating hazard to communities and infrastructure on the New Zealand coast. But major events are very uncommon. This dichotomy of infrequent but potentially devastating hazards makes realistic assessment of the risk challenging. Here, we describe a method to determine a probabilistic assessment of the tsunami hazard by regional source tsunamis with an “Average Recurrence Interval” of 2,500-years. The method is applied to the east Auckland region of New Zealand. From an assessment of potential regional tsunamigenic events over 100,000 years, the inundation of the Auckland region from the worst 100 events is modelled using a hydrodynamic model and probabilistic inundation depths on a 2,500-year time scale were determined. Tidal effects on the potential inundation were included by coupling the predicted wave heights with the probability density function of tidal heights at the inundation site. Results show that the more exposed northern section of the east coast and outer islands in the Hauraki Gulf face the greatest hazard from regional tsunamis in the Auckland region. Incorporating tidal effects into predictions of inundation reduced the predicted hazard compared to modelling all the tsunamis arriving at high tide giving a more accurate hazard assessment on the specified time scale. This study presents the first probabilistic analysis of dynamic modelling of tsunami inundation for the New Zealand coast and as such provides the most comprehensive assessment of tsunami inundation of the Auckland region from regional source tsunamis available to date.  相似文献   

3.
We develop a probabilistic model for estimating the tsunami hazard along the coast of New Zealand due to plate-interface earthquakes along the South American subduction zone. To do this we develop statistical and physical models for several stages in the process of tsunami generation and propagation, and develop a method for combining these models to produce hazard estimates using a Monte-Carlo technique. This process is largely analogous to that used for seismic hazard modelling, but is distinguished from it by the use of a physical model to represent the tsunami propagation, as opposed to the use of empirical attenuation models for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis.  相似文献   

4.
A Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment for Western Australia   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
The occurrence of the Indian Ocean Tsunami on 26 December, 2004 has raised concern about the difficulty in determining appropriate tsunami mitigation measures in Australia, due to the lack of information on the tsunami threat. A first step in the development of such measures is a tsunami hazard assessment, which gives an indication of which areas of coastline are most likely to experience tsunamis, and how likely such events are. Here we present the results of a probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Western Australia (WA). Compared to other parts of Australia, the WA coastline experiences a relatively high frequency of tsunami occurrence. This hazard is due to earthquakes along the Sunda Arc, south of Indonesia. Our work shows that large earthquakes offshore of Java and Sumba are likely to be a greater threat to WA than those offshore of Sumatra or elsewhere in Indonesia. A magnitude 9 earthquake offshore of the Indonesian islands of Java or Sumba has the potential to significantly impact a large part of the West Australian coastline. The level of hazard varies along the coast, but is highest along the coast from Carnarvon to Dampier. Tsunamis generated by other sources (e.g., large intra-plate events, volcanoes, landslides and asteroids) were not considered in this study.  相似文献   

5.
Evaluating Tsunami Hazard in the Northwestern Indian Ocean   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
We evaluate here the tsunami hazard in the northwestern Indian Ocean. The maximum regional earthquake calculated from seismic hazard analysis, was used as the characteristic earthquake for our tsunami hazard assessment. This earthquake, with a moment magnitude of M w 8.3 and a return period of about 1000 years, was moved along the Makran subduction zone (MSZ) and its possible tsunami wave height along various coasts was calculated via numerical simulation. Both seismic hazard analysis and numerical modeling of the tsunami were validated using historical observations of the Makran earthquake and tsunami of the 1945. Results showed that the possible tsunami may reach a maximum height of 9.6 m in the region. The distribution of tsunami wave height along various coasts is presented. We recommend the development of a tsunami warning system in the region, and emphasize the value of education as a measure to mitigate the death toll of a possible tsunami in this region.  相似文献   

6.
On 15 July 2009, a Mw 7.8 earthquake occurred off the New Zealand coast, which by serendipitous coincidence occurred while the International Tsunami Symposium was in session in Novosibirsk, Russia. The earthquake generated a tsunami that propagated across the Tasman Sea and was detected in New Zealand, Australia and as far away as the US West coast. Small boats close to the epicenter were placed in jeopardy, but no significant damage was observed despite a measured run-up height of 2.3 m in one of the Sounds in close proximity to the source (Wilson in GNS Science Report 46:62 2009). Peak-to-trough tsunami heights of 55 cm were measured at Southport, Tasmania and a height of 1 m was measured in Jackson Bay, New Zealand. The International Tsunami Symposium provided an ideal venue for illustration of the value of immediate real-time assessment and provided an opportunity to further validate the real time forecasting capabilities with the scientific community in attendance. A number of agencies with responsibility for tsunami forecast and/or warning, such as the NOAA Center for Tsunami Research, the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, GNS Science in New Zealand, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the European Commission Joint Research Centre were all represented at the meeting and were able to demonstrate the use of state of the art numerical models to assess the tsunami potential and provide warning as appropriate.  相似文献   

7.
For Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA), we propose a logic-tree approach to construct tsunami hazard curves (relationship between tsunami height and probability of exceedance) and present some examples for Japan for the purpose of quantitative assessments of tsunami risk for important coastal facilities. A hazard curve is obtained by integration over the aleatory uncertainties, and numerous hazard curves are obtained for different branches of logic-tree representing epistemic uncertainty. A PTHA consists of a tsunami source model and coastal tsunami height estimation. We developed the logic-tree models for local tsunami sources around Japan and for distant tsunami sources along the South American subduction zones. Logic-trees were made for tsunami source zones, size and frequency of tsunamigenic earthquakes, fault models, and standard error of estimated tsunami heights. Numerical simulation rather than empirical relation was used for estimating the median tsunami heights. Weights of discrete branches that represent alternative hypotheses and interpretations were determined by the questionnaire survey for tsunami and earthquake experts, whereas those representing the error of estimated value were determined on the basis of historical data. Examples of tsunami hazard curves were illustrated for the coastal sites, and uncertainty in the tsunami hazard was displayed by 5-, 16-, 50-, 84- and 95-percentile and mean hazard curves.  相似文献   

8.
Sources of Tsunami and Tsunamigenic Earthquakes in Subduction Zones   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
—We classified tsunamigenic earthquakes in subduction zones into three types earth quakes at the plate interface (typical interplate events), earthquakes at the outer rise, within the subducting slab or overlying crust (intraplate events), and "tsunami earthquakes" that generate considerably larger tsunamis than expected from seismic waves. The depth range of a typical interplate earthquake source is 10–40km, controlled by temperature and other geological parameters. The slip distribution varies both with depth and along-strike. Recent examples show very different temporal change of slip distribution in the Aleutians and the Japan trench. The tsunamigenic coseismic slip of the 1957 Aleutian earthquake was concentrated on an asperity located in the western half of an aftershock zone 1200km long. This asperity ruptured again in the 1986 Andreanof Islands and 1996 Delarof Islands earthquakes. By contrast, the source of the 1994 Sanriku-oki earthquake corresponds to the low slip region of the previous interplate event, the 1968 Tokachi-oki earthquake. Tsunamis from intraplate earthquakes within the subducting slab can be at least as large as those from interplate earthquakes; tsunami hazard assessments must include such events. Similarity in macroseismic data from two southern Kuril earthquakes illustrates difficulty in distinguishing interplate and slab events on the basis of historical data such as felt reports and tsunami heights. Most moment release of tsunami earthquakes occurs in a narrow region near the trench, and the concentrated slip is responsible for the large tsunami. Numerical modeling of the 1996 Peru earthquake confirms this model, which has been proposed for other tsunami earthquakes, including 1896 Sanriku, 1946 Aleutian and 1992 Nicaragua.  相似文献   

9.
Tsunami Forecasting and Monitoring in New Zealand   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
New Zealand is exposed to tsunami threats from several sources that vary significantly in their potential impact and travel time. One route for reducing the risk from these tsunami sources is to provide advance warning based on forecasting and monitoring of events in progress. In this paper the National Tsunami Warning System framework, including the responsibilities of key organisations and the procedures that they follow in the event of a tsunami threatening New Zealand, are summarised. A method for forecasting threat-levels based on tsunami models is presented, similar in many respects to that developed for Australia by Allen and Greenslade (Nat Hazards 46:35?C52, 2008), and a simple system for easy access to the threat-level forecasts using a clickable pdf file is presented. Once a tsunami enters or initiates within New Zealand waters, its progress and evolution can be monitored in real-time using a newly established network of online tsunami gauge sensors placed at strategic locations around the New Zealand coasts and offshore islands. Information from these gauges can be used to validate and revise forecasts, and assist in making the all-clear decision.  相似文献   

10.
We undertake detailed near-field numerical modelling of the tsunami generated by the 15 July 2009 earthquake (Mw 7.8) in Fiordland, New Zealand. High resolution bathymetry and topography data at Breaksea and Dusky Sounds, and Chalky and Preservation Inlets are derived mostly from digitised New Zealand nautical charts, Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) 3 arc-second data, and General Bathymetric Chart of the Ocean (GEBCO) 30 s data. A combination of continuous and campaign Global Positioning System (GPS), satellite radar (ALOS/PALSAR InSAR images) and seismology data are used to constrain the seafloor deformation for the initial tsunami condition. This source model, derived independently of DART observations, provides an excellent fit to observed tsunami elevations recorded by DART buoy 55015. The model results in the near field show maximum tsunami elevations in the range 0.5–2.0 m inside the sounds and inlets with maximum flow speeds of 3.0 m/s. Along the open coast, maximum tsunami elevations reach 2.0 m. The high flow speeds through the inlets may change the inlet stratifications and water mass inside the sounds. Media reports and field reconnaissance data show some tsunami evidence at Cormorant Cove, Duck and Goose Coves, and Passage Point.  相似文献   

11.
The 1771 Yaeyama tsunami is successfully reproduced using a simple faulting model without submarine landslide. The Yaeyama tsunami (M 7.4), which struck the southern Ryukyu Islands of Japan, produced unusually high tsunami amplitudes on the southeastern coast of Ishigaki Island and caused significant damage, including 12,000 casualties. Previous tsunami source models for this event have included both seismological faults and submarine landslides. However, no evidence of landslides in the source has been obtained, despite marine surveying of the area. The seismological fault model proposed in this study, describing a fault to the east of Ishigaki Island, successfully reproduces the distribution of tsunami runup on the southern coast of the Ryukyu Islands. The unusual runup heights are found through the numerical simulation attributable to a concentration of tsunami energy toward the southeastern coast of Ishigaki Island by the effect of the shelf to the east. Thus, the unusual runup heights observed on the southeastern coast of Ishigaki Island can be adequately explained by a seismological fault model with wave-ray bending on the adjacent shelf.  相似文献   

12.
The highly vulnerable Pacific southwest coast of Mexico has been repeatedly affected by local, regional and remote source tsunamis. Mexico presently has no national tsunami warning system in operation. The implementation of key elements of a National Program on Tsunami Detection, Monitoring, Warning and Mitigation is in progress. For local and regional events detection and monitoring, a prototype of a robust and low cost high frequency sea-level tsunami gauge, sampling every minute and equipped with 24 hours real time transmission to the Internet, was developed and is currently in operation. Statistics allow identification of low, medium and extreme hazard categories of arriving tsunamis. These categories are used as prototypes for computer simulations of coastal flooding. A finite-difference numerical model with linear wave theory for the deep ocean propagation, and shallow water nonlinear one for the near shore and interaction with the coast, and non-fixed boundaries for flooding and recession at the coast, is used. For prevention purposes, tsunami inundation maps for several coastal communities, are being produced in this way. The case of the heavily industrialized port of Lázaro Cárdenas, located on the sand shoals of a river delta, is illustrated; including a detailed vulnerability assessment study. For public education on preparedness and awareness, printed material for children and adults has been developed and published. It is intended to extend future coverage of this program to the Mexican Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico coastal areas.  相似文献   

13.
The great Tohoku-oki earthquake of March 11, 2011 generated a devastating tsunami in the near field as well as substantial far-field effects throughout the Pacific Ocean. In New Zealand, the tsunami was widely observed and instrumentally recorded on an extensive array of coastal tidal gauges and supplemented by current velocity data from two sites. While the tsunami's first arrival was on the morning of March 12 in New Zealand, the strongest effects occurred throughout that afternoon and into the following day. Tsunami effects consisted primarily of rapid changes in water level and associated strong currents that affected numerous bays, harbors, tidal inlets and marine facilities, particularly on the northern and eastern shores of the North Island. The tsunami caused moderate damage and significant overland flooding at one location. The tsunami signal was clearly evident on tide gauge recordings for well over 2 days, clearly illustrating the extended duration of far field tsunami hazards. Real time analysis and modelling of the tsunami through the night of March 11, as the tsunami crossed the Pacific, was used as a basis for escalating the predicted threat level for the northern region of New Zealand. A comparison to recorded data following the tsunami shows that these real time prediction models were accurate despite the coarse near-shore bathymetry used in the assessment, suggesting the efficacy of such techniques for future events from far-field sources.  相似文献   

14.
本文假设马尼拉海沟北段为潜在海啸源,基于中国地震台网对马尼拉海沟地区震级测定偏差,采用COMCOT(comell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami Model)海啸数值模型,模拟南海海啸波传播.选取南海北缘3个特定地点,其中两个位于华南近海区域,另一个位于台湾岛南端近海区域,此外还在临近马尼拉海沟北段的深海地区选取了1个特定地点.分析这些特定地点最大海啸波以及最大海啸波到时对于震级测定偏差的敏感性.结果表明:马尼拉海沟北段地震如触发海啸,华南近海区域以及台湾岛南部近海区域最大海啸波振幅对震级偏差敏感,但最大海啸波振幅到时对于震级测定偏差不敏感;振幅最大的海啸波,二十几分钟即可波及台湾岛南端近岸区域,大约1小时后波及大陆华南近海北部区域.  相似文献   

15.
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16.
Comparison of the 2010 Chile and 2011 Japan Tsunamis in the Far Field   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
In this study we analyze water level data from coastal tide gauges and deep-ocean tsunameters to explore the far-field characteristics of two major trans-Pacific tsunamis, the 2010 Chile and the 2011 Japan (Tohoku-oki) events. We focused our attention on data recorded in California (14 stations) and New Zealand (31 stations) as well as on tsunameters situated along the tsunami path and proximal to the study sites. Our analysis considers statistical analyses of the time series to determine arrival times of the tsunami as well as the timing of the largest waves and the highest absolute sea levels. Fourier and wavelet analysis were used to describe the spectral content of the tsunami signal. These characteristics were then compared between the two events to highlight similarities and differences between the signals as a function of the receiving environment and the tsunami source. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of far-field tsunami characteristics in the Pacific Ocean, which has not experienced a major tsunami in nearly 50 years. As such, it systematically describes the tsunami response characteristics of modern maritime infrastructure in New Zealand and California and will be of value for future tsunami hazard assessments in both countries.  相似文献   

17.
在东海潜在震源区冲绳海槽假定了五个震源点,根据Steven地震海啸地震参数经验值作为初始条件,分别考虑6.5、7.0、7.5、8.0、8.5、9.0级地震条件下的30个震例,采用数值模拟的方法,对海啸在东海传播过程进行情境分析,特别是对上海沿岸地区可能会遭受的海啸灾害做了较为精细的研究.结果发现:小于8.0级的震例对上海地区几乎不会造成影响;8.0级震例只有最北端震源点震例会对上海地区有明显影响;8.5级以及9.0级震级基本上均会对上海沿岸地区造成较大的影响.特别是冲绳海槽北段9.0级震例可能会对上海沿岸局部地区造成危害,最大波高可达3.9m.  相似文献   

18.
The 1700 great Cascadia earthquake (M = 9) generated widespread tsunami waves that affected the entire Pacific Ocean and caused damage as distant as Japan. Similar catastrophic waves may be generated by a future Cascadia megathrust earthquake. We use three rupture scenarios for this earthquake in numerical experiments to study propagation of tsunami waves off the west coast of North America and to predict tsunami heights and currents in several bays and harbours on southern Vancouver Island, British Columbia, including Ucluelet, located on the west coast of the island, and Victoria and Esquimalt harbours inside Juan de Fuca Strait. The earthquake scenarios are: an 1100-km long rupture over the entire length of the subduction zone and separate ruptures of its northern or southern segments. As expected, the southern earthquake scenario has a limited effect over most of the Vancouver Island coast, with waves in the harbours not exceeding 1 m. The other two scenarios produce large tsunami waves, higher than 16 m at one location near Ucluelet and over 4 m inside Esquimalt and Victoria harbours, and very strong currents that reach 17 m/s in narrow channels and near headlands. Because the assumed rupture scenarios are based on a previous earthquake, direct use of the model results to estimate the effect of a future earthquake requires appropriate qualification.  相似文献   

19.
On the evening of March 28, 2005 at 11:09?p.m. local time (16:09 UTC), a large earthquake occurred offshore of West Sumatra, Indonesia. With a moment magnitude (M w) of 8.6, the event caused substantial shaking damage and land level changes between Simeulue Island in the north and the Batu Islands in the south. The earthquake also generated a tsunami, which was observed throughout the source region as well as on distant tide gauges. While the tsunami was not as extreme as the tsunami of December 26th, 2004, it did cause significant flooding and damage at some locations. The spatial and temporal proximity of the two events led to a unique set of observational data from the earthquake and tsunami as well as insights relevant to tsunami hazard planning and education efforts.  相似文献   

20.
In the southernmost Kuril Trench, the tsunami source regions vary their along-trench extent even among earthquakes occurring within the same segment. Recent studies suggest that the tsunami source of the 1952 Tokachi-oki earthquake (M 8.1) differs from but partially overlaps with that of the 2003 Tokach-oki earthquake (M 8.0). Furthermore, the along-trench extent among the earthquakes seems to differ between deep and shallow portions of the subduction interface. A seismic gap has been recognized along the deep subduction interface between the sources of the 1952 and 1973 earthquakes. We propose that the gap is now larger, including both shallow to deep portions of the interface between the 1973 and 2003 earthquakes. Variability in spatial extent of large subduction earthquakes in both along-trench direction and trench-normal direction makes it difficult to forecast future earthquakes in the southernmost Kuril Trench.  相似文献   

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