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1.
吴忠良 《地震学报(英文版)》2001,14(5)
It has been recognized for a long time that the b-value in the Gutenberg-Richters fre-quency-magnitude relation (Gutenberg, Richter, 1954) tends to decrease before some of the earth-quakes (LI, et al, 1979, and the references therein). Since the 1980s, study on b-value has caused much attention among seismologists and physicists when b-value was related to the fractal dimen-sion of an earthquake fault (Aki, 1981; King, 1983) and/or the scaling constant in the model of self-organized critical… 相似文献
2.
4 Conclusions The preliminary result of this work was obtained in 1992. At Consulting Meeting for Seismic Trends of China in Jan. 1993,
we handed in a report and predicted that “Until now, the average magnitude curve
haven’t gotten risen again after a fall, and the value ofH is under 0.4, so no alarm is made by each of these two. We predicted that, seismicity of the Chinese mainland in 1993 may
be at the same level as in 1991–1992, or a little higher than it, but mustn’t be very high; this is to say that no earthquake
withM
s⩾7.2 will occur in the Chinese mainland in 1993.”
The real situation is: No earthquake withM
s⩾7.2 occurred in the Chinese mainland, and it shows that this real prediction is true.
To state succinctly: (1)In ths paper nonlinearR/S fractal method is applicated in earthquake prediction, and two algorithms RSH and RSHM are proposed. (2)R values of this two algorithms reached a notable value, and pass confidence test, so a certain efficiency is presented. But
RSHM is some better. (3) It is presented by the successful prediction example that there is a good prospect in predicting
with fractal method.
Contribution No. 95A0056, Institute of Geophysics, SSB, China.
This study is supported by the Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation. 相似文献
3.
Shao-Xie Xu 《地震学报(英文版)》1993,6(2):517-533
The method of prediction of earthquake by using seismisity (MPES) is to make use of the message of earthquakes (including
large, middle, small) in pre-period to predict large earthquake in post-period. Some better methods are presented in this
paper which are selected among many means used in our country recent years. These methods are classified into six sets: 1.
Method of spatial pattern; 2. Method of time process; 3. Method of seismic sequence; 4. Method of earthquake correlation;
5. Method of parameters of seismic source and medium; 6. Comprehensive method. Prediction effects of each method are evaluated
with unique score. The value of each method, scoreR, are generally in a range between 0.3 and 0.6. This value only represents internal consistency, however, the ability of actual
prediction belongs to the extensional effect, which is generally lower than the value of internal consistency. If the ability
of actual prediction could be evaluated withR = 0.3, the ability of prediction of earthquake by seismicity will be stated as following: If most of earthquakes must be
predicted, the warning time needs to take seventy percent of whole time period of prediction; If half earthquakes must be
predicted, the warning time needs to take twenty percent of whole time period of prediction.
The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,15, 239–252, 1993. 相似文献
4.
Relocation of the 1998 Zhangbei-Shangyi earthquake sequence using the double difference earthquake location algorithm 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
Introduction On January 10, 1998, at 11h50min Beijing Time (03h50min UTC), an earthquake of ML=6.2 occurred in the border region between the Zhangbei County and Shangyi County of Hebei Province. In total 87 events with ML3.0 were recorded by Beijing Telemetry Seismic Network (BTSN) before March of 1999. Before relocation the preliminary hypocenters determined by BTSN showed an epicentral distribution of 25 km long and 25 km wide without any predominate orientation. The epicentral a… 相似文献
5.
b值是研究地震活动的重要指标,其广泛应用于地震危险性分析和地震预测研究之中,与实际资料的完整性、样本量的大小、计算方法等因素有着重要的关系。常见的b值计算方法有最小二乘法和最大似然法,样本量的大小对这2种方法影响很大。本文利用蒙特卡罗模拟地震目录和汾渭地震带实际目录作为样本,从中抽取不同大小的样本量进行计算,研究不同样本量下这2种方法计算得到的b值与设定值或真实值之间的差别。结果表明,最小二乘法需要的最低样本量为1000,最大似然法为200;当样本量达不到要求时,计算出的b值是不可靠的;由于对样本量的要求不同,前者适用于计算区域的整体b值,而后者在研究某区域b值在时间轴上的变化方面更有优势。本研究为确定2种b值计算方法对样本量的最低要求提供了参考依据。 相似文献
6.
Based on the latest displacement of Huoshan piedmont fault, Mianshan west-side fault and Taigu fault obtained from the beginning of 1990‘s up to the present, the characteristics of distribution and displacement of surface rupture zone of the 1303 Hongtong M = 8 earthquake, Shanxi Province are synthesized and discussed in the paper. If Taigu fault, Mianshan west-side fault and Huoshan piedmont fault were contemporarily active during the 1303 Hongtong M = 8 earthquake, the surface rupture zone would be 160 km long and could be divided into 3 segments, that is, the 50-km-long Huoshan piedmont fault segment, 35-km-long Mianshan west-side fault segment and 70-km-long Taigu fault segment, respectively. Among them, there exist 4 km and 8 km step regions. The surface rupture zone exhibits right-lateral features. The displacements of northern and central segments are respectively 6～7 m and the southern segment has the maximum displacement of 10 m. The single basin-boundary fault of Shanxi fault-depression system usually corresponds to M ≈ 7 earthquake, while this great earthquake (M = 8) broke through the obstacle between two basins. It shows that the surface rupture scale of great earthquake is changeable. 相似文献
7.
U. Yalçın Kalyoncuoglu 《Journal of Seismology》2007,11(2):131-148
In this study, the spatial distributions of seismicity and seismic hazard were assessed for Turkey and its surrounding area.
For this purpose, earthquakes that occurred between 1964 and 2004 with magnitudes of M ≥ 4 were used in the region (30–42°N and 20–45°E). For the estimation of seismicity parameters and its mapping, Turkey and
surrounding area are divided into 1,275 circular subregions. The b-value from the Gutenberg–Richter frequency–magnitude distributions is calculated by the classic way and the new alternative
method both using the least-squares approach. The a-value in the Gutenberg–Richter frequency–magnitude distributions is taken as a constant value in the new alternative method.
The b-values calculated by the new method were mapped. These results obtained from both methods are compared. The b-value shows different distributions along Turkey for both techniques. The b-values map prepared with new technique presents a better consistency with regional tectonics, earthquake activities, and
epicenter distributions. Finally, the return period and occurrence hazard probability of M ≥ 6.5 earthquakes in 75 years were calculated by using the Poisson model for both techniques. The return period and occurrence
hazard probability maps determined from both techniques showed a better consistency with each other. Moreover, maps of the
occurrence hazard probability and return period showed better consistency with the b-parameter seismicity maps calculated from the new method. The occurrence hazard probability and return period of M ≥ 6.5 earthquakes were calculated as 90–99% and 5–10 years, respectively, from the Poisson model in the western part of the
studying region. 相似文献
8.
Conclusions The sequence of the November 29, 1999 Xiuyan, Liaoning, earthquake withM
S=5.4 is relocated, and its rupture process is analyzed. Results are as follows:
The rupture extended mainly before the January 12, 2000,M
S=5.1 earthquake. There are two phases of rupture extending: The first phase was before the November 29, 1999,M
S=5.4 earthquake, epicenters were situated within a small region with a dimension of about 5 km, and the focal depth increased.
It shows that the rupture mainly extended from shallow part to deep in the vertical direction. The second phase was between
theM
S=5.4 earthquake and theM
S=5.1 earthquake, earthquakes migrated along southeast, the focal depth decreased. It indicates that the rupture extended along
southeast and from deep to shallow part.
Foundation item: The Project of “Mechanism and Prediction of the Strong Continental Earthquake” (95-13-05-04).
Contribution No. 01FE2017, Institute of Geophysics, China Seismological Bureau. 相似文献
9.
A lot of researches onb value have been made in seismology. Since the 1960’s Mogi, Scholz and others have studied AE of rock specimens in laboratory
and discovered that it is related to natural earthquakes. All former researchers used integral specimens to studyb value in the laboratory. However a major earthquake is usually related to a existing seismic-fault in that area. For this
reason, a series of fracture experiments with rock and glass specimens having pre-existing crack or notch is performed in
order to examine the effect of preexisting crack tob value. The experimental results show that theb value begins to decrease as soon as the initiation of the crack and finally drop to a very low value when the specimen breaks
unstably. Based on these, a brief discussion on the possible mechanism ofb value change for natural earthquakes is given.
The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,9, 393–400, 1987.
Projects sponsored by the Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation. 相似文献
10.
Most of the present earthquake early warning systems are based on broadband or strong motion recordings. How-ever, the short-period instruments are still deployed. It is well-known that short-period recordings have saturation problems for large earthquakes when estimating the size of an earthquake. Thus, it is necessary to make clear the magnitude at which saturation starts to occur for the commonly used τc and Pd measurements, respectively. To investigate the possibility of using short-period seismic recordings for earthquake early warning, we conducted a simulated experiment using the strong motion data of the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake sequence including its main shock and 31 aftershocks, with magnitude span from 4 to 7.6. The strong motion acceleration recordings were convolved with the instrument response of short-period seismographs in northern China to simulate short-period seismograms. Parameters τc and Pd from the first-three-second seismograms were calculated for the simulated short-period recordings and compared with that obtained by the original strong ground motion recordings. The result showed that to some extent, short-period recordings can be used for threshold earthquake early warning, while the magnitude saturation of Pd estimation can be up to 6.5, better than τc estimation. 相似文献
11.
The July 3, 2015 Pishan MS6.5 earthquake occurred in the intersection area of the Tarim block and West Kunlun block where the moderate-strong earthquakes have become active in recent years. This paper has studied the seismicity parameters of the earthquake sequences such as the b-value in the Pishan region and its vicinity. In addition, we also relocated the aftershocks of the Pishan MS6.5 earthquake using the seismic phase report by the double-difference method. The temporal and spatial variation characteristics of the Pishan earthquake sequence in the rupture zone are analyzed. The study is of great significance in the seismic hazard assessment in this region. 相似文献
12.
According to geological tectonics and seismic activites this paper devided North China (30°–45°N, 105°–130°E) into four areas.
We analyzed the North China earthquake catalogue from 1970 to 1986 (from 1965 to 1986 for Huabei, the North China, plain region)
and identified forty-two bursts of aftershock. Seven of them occurred in aftershock regions of strong earthquakes and seventeen
of them in the seismic swarm regions. The relation between strong earthquakes with the remaining eighteen bursts of aftershocks
has been studied and tested statistically in this paper. The result of statistical testing show that the random probabilityp of coincidence of bursts of aftershock with subsequent strong earthquakes is less than six percent. By Xu’sR scoring method the efficacy of predicting strong earthquake from bursts of aftershock is estimated greater than 39 percent.
Following the method proposed in the paper we analyzed the earthquake catalogue of China from 1987 to June, 1988. The results
show that there was only one burst of aftershock occurred on Jan. 6, 1988 withM=3.6 in Xiuyan of Northeast China. It implicates that a potential earthquake withM
S⩽5 might occur in one year afterwards in the region of Northeast China. Actually on Feb. 25, 1988 an earthquake withM
S=5.3 occurred in Zhangwu of Northeast China. Another example is Datong-Yanggao shock on October 18, 1989 which is a burst
of aftershock. Three hours after an expected shock withM =6.1 took place in the same area. Two examples above have been tested in practical prediction and this shows that bursts
of aftershocks are significant in predicting strong earthquakes.
The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 273–280, 1991.
Part of earthquake catalogue is from Jinbiao Chen, Peiyan Chen and Quanlin Li. 相似文献
13.
14.
2022年9月5日四川泸定发生M6.8地震,为研究泸定地震孕震区的应力变化,选取b值、小震调制比和丛集率这3个参数,对泸定地震前的区域地震活动状态进行计算研究。结果显示:泸定及周边区域几次强震发生前,区域地震活动均存在持续时间较长的低b值时段,且在低b值状态下震前短期内出现小震高丛集、高调制比的现象;鲜水河断裂带的地震活动状态分析显示,此次泸定地震前该断裂带存在持续时间近10个月的低b值状态,且短期内出现丛集率升高、调制比高值现象。通过对比分析,认为泸定地震是鲜水河断裂带构造运动的结果。综合分析认为,结合应力场背景和构造条件研究地震活动b值、固体潮调制比和丛集率的时空变化有助于理解大地震的孕育演化过程。 相似文献
15.
ＲｅｓｅａｒｃｈｏｎｃｈａｒａｃｔｅｒｉｓｔｉｃｓｏｆｍａｇｎｉｔｕｄｅｓｔｒｕｃｔｕｒｅｏｆｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｓｅｑｕｅｎｃｅｓＰＥＩ－ＱＩＮＧＳＵＮ（孙佩卿）ＱＩＮ－ＺＵＬＩ（李钦祖）ＹＩＮＧ－ＨＵＡＤＡＩ（戴英华）ＪＵＮＺＨＡＯ（赵军）Ｓｅ... 相似文献
16.
Introduction The January 10, 1998 Zhangbei-Shangyi, Hebei Province, earthquake has been the third large event of magnitude 6.0 and greater since the 1976 great Tangshan earthquake of magnitude 7.8 in the northern China (33皛42癗, 110皛124癊). Before this event, there were only two events of magnitude 6.0 and greater occurred in or around the Tangshan area since 1976: the M=6.9 Ninghe, Tianjin, earthquake of November 15, 1976 and the M=6.2 Hangu, Tianjin, earthquake of May 12, 1977. The … 相似文献
17.
2017年8月8日青藏高原东缘四川九寨沟地区发生7.0级强震,依据前人研究结果分析九寨沟7.0级地震发震构造,并计算震前应力状态。结果显示:本次地震受到构造和历史强震的影响,是发生在历史强震引起的应力加载区域。另外,采用中国地震台网1990年以来的地震目录,在评估目录完整性的基础上,利用最大似然法计算得到2017年8月8日九寨沟7.0级地震前震源区及邻区地震b值空间图像。结果显示,九寨沟7.0级地震发生在四川北部地区显著低b值高应力异常区域内部(0.82b0.75)。所以,研究区域内外历史强震可能促进了九寨沟7.0级地震的发生。 相似文献
18.
基于新10井水位对九寨沟M_S7.0、精河M_S6.6地震的同震响应特征,分别利用水震波和潮汐分析法,反演得到了新10井水位在地震波作用期间和地震波作用前后含水层参数特征,探讨了2次地震引起的新10井同震响应变化机理。结果表明,新10井水位对九寨沟地震和精河地震具有不同的同震响应形态,利用水平流模型反演所得的新10井含水层渗透系数,在九寨沟地震时为61m/d,而在精河地震时为147m/d,表明地震波作用导致水平向的渗透性增强;利用垂向流模型反演得到的新10井含水层渗透系数,在2次地震之前约为49×10~(-5)m/d,而在地震之后约为18×10~(-5)m/d,表明地震波作用导致垂直向的渗透性减弱。因此,新10井水位的同震响应变化与地震波引起的含水层渗透率的改变有关。 相似文献
19.
Allison L. Bent 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1996,146(1):5-20
The Timiskaming earthquake, which occurred near the Quebec-Ontario border at the northwest end of the Western Quebec seismic zone in 1935, is one of the five largest instrumentally recorded southeastern Canadian earthquakes. Previous studies of this earthquake concentrated on modeling teismograms recorded at regional distances, a better constrained focal mechanism is obtained. The waveforms indicate thrust faulting on a moderately dipping northwest striking plane at a depth of 10 km. TheM
w
of 6.1 determined in this study is in good agreement with previous magnitude estimates (m
b
6.1,M
s
6.0, andm
bLg
6.2–6.3). The focal mechanism is similar to those of many recent small to moderate earthquakes in the region, and the inferred (from theP axis) acting stress of northeast compression is consistent with the overall eastern North American stress field. The Lake Timiskaming Rift Valley in which the earthquake occurred, comprises several northwest striking faults consistent with the strike of the 1935 event. Thus, the 1935 earthquake appears to be a result of faulting on the reactivated Timiskaming graben. 相似文献
20.
2019年12月26日湖北应城发生M4.9有感地震,其震感波及武汉大部分地区。为了分析该地震的发震构造及余震活动性,本文利用波形拟合方法测定了不同速度模型下该地震的震源机制解和矩心深度,并用Bootstrapping抽样反演技术评价反演结果;此外,利用模板匹配技术匹配主震和目录余震波形,获取了更为完整的余震目录。结果显示,应城地震以走滑为主,矩心深度7.5km左右,矩震级MW4.67;应城地震有1个前震和17个余震,余震序列缺少M2~4事件,表明应城地震为孤立型地震,M2以下地震的b值为0.8。 相似文献