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1.
Most tropical cyclones have very few observations in their vicinity. Hence either they go undetected in standard analyses
or are analyzed very poorly, with ill defined centres and locations. Such initial errors obviously have major impact on the
forecast of cyclone tracks using numerical models. One way of overcoming the above difficulty is to remove the weak initial
vortex and replace it with a synthetic vortex (with the correct size, intensity and location) in the initial analysis. The
objective of this study is to investigate the impact of introducing NCAR–AFWA synthetic vortex scheme in the regional model
MM5 on the simulation of a tropical cyclone formed over the Arabian Sea during November 2003. Two sets of numerical experiments
are conducted in this study. While the first set utilizes the NCEP reanalysis as the initial and lateral boundary conditions,
the second set utilizes the NCAR–AFWA synthetic vortex scheme. The results of the two sets of MM5 simulations are compared
with one another as well as with the observations and the NCEP reanalysis. It is found that inclusion of the synthetic vortex
has resulted in improvements in the simulation of wind asymmetries, warm temperature anomalies, stronger vertical velocity
fields and consequently in the overall structure of the tropical cyclone. The time series of the minimum sea level pressure
and maximum wind speed reveal that the model simulations are closer to observations when synthetic vortex was introduced in
the model. The central minimum pressure reduces by 17 hPa while the maximum wind speed associated with the tropical cyclone
enhances by 17 m s −1 with the introduction of the synthetic vortex. While the lowest central pressure estimated from the satellite image is 988 hPa,
the corresponding value in the synthetic vortex simulated cyclone is 993 hPa. Improvements in the overall structure and initial
location of the center of the system have contributed to considerable reduction in the vector track prediction errors ie.
642 km in 24 h, 788 km in 48 h and 1145 km in 72 h. Further, simulation with the synthetic vortex shows realistic spatial
distribution of the precipitation associated with the tropical cyclone. 相似文献
2.
The roles of vortex initialization and model spin-up in tropical cyclone (TC) prediction using Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW) Model are studied through a case study of NARGIS (2008) cyclone over Bay of Bengal. ARW model is designed to have three two-way interactive nested domains, and a suite of 36 numerical experiments are performed with three values of maximum wind (MW), four of radius of maximum wind (RMW), and three of α and one experiment without vortex initialization. The results indicate that vortex initialization is important toward realistic representation of initial structure and location of cyclone vortex. Model spin-up during the first 18–24 h of model integration lead to faster intensification than of the real atmosphere, thus a weaker initial vortex evolved more realistically. Three experiments from vortex initialization produced MW and RMW nearer to the observations, but none of these produced a good prediction due to unrealistic intensification during model spin-up. A weaker vortex with intensity less than 50 % than observations produced the best forecast in terms of intensity, track, and landfall. The results suggest that slightly larger (~30 %) RMW than observations with α as ?0.5 (for 81 km model resolution) that produces weaker vortex is to be implemented in the design of bogus vortex. This study assesses the merits of TC bogus scheme in ARW model, illustrates the need for vortex initialization, and analyzes the spin-up problem in cold-start model simulations of TC prediction. 相似文献
3.
Much progress has been made in the area of tropical cyclone prediction using high-resolution mesoscale models based on community models developed at National Centers for Environmental Predication (NCEP) and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). While most of these model research and development activities are focused on predicting hurricanes in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific domains, there has been much interest in using these models for tropical cyclone prediction in the North Indian Ocean region, particularly for Bay of Bengal storms that are known historically causing severe damage to life and property. In this study, the advanced operational hurricane modeling system developed at NCEP, known as the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) model, is used to simulate two recent Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones??Nargis of November 2007 and Sidr of April 2008. The advanced NCEP operational vortex initialization procedure is adapted for simulating these Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones. Two additional regional models, the NCAR Advanced Research WRF and NCAR/Penn State University Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5) are also used in simulating these storms. Results from these experiments highlight the superior performance of HWRF model over other models in predicting the Bay of Bengal cyclones. These results also suggest the need for a sophisticated vortex initialization procedure in conjunction with a model designed exclusively for tropical cyclone prediction for operational considerations. 相似文献
4.
The rapid intensification of Hurricane Charley (2004) near landfall is studied using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State
University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) and its adjoint system for both vortex
initialization and forecasts. A significant improvement in both track and intensity forecasts is achieved after an ill-defined
storm vortex, derived from large-scale analysis, in the initial condition is replaced by the vortex generated by a four-dimensional
data variational (4D-Var) hurricane initialization scheme. Results from numerical experiments suggest that both the inclusion
of the upper-level trough and the use of high horizontal resolution (6 km) are important for numerical simulations to capture
the observed rapid intensification as well as the size reduction during the rapid intensification of Hurricane Charley. The
approach of the upper-level trough significantly enhanced the upper-level divergence and vertical motion within simulated
hurricanes. Small-scale features that are not resolvable at 18 km resolution are important to the rapid intensification and
shrinking of Hurricane Charley (2004). Numerical results from this study further confirm that the theoretical relationship
between the intensification and shrinking of tropical cyclones based on the angular momentum conservation and the cyclostrophic
approximation can be applied to the azimuthal mean flows. 相似文献
5.
Sensitivity experiments are conducted for three cases of cyclones for investigating the impact of different vortex initialization
schemes on the structure and track prediction of the cyclone using India Meteorological Department’s Limited Area Model. The
surface wind and pressure profiles generated using Holland and Rankine initialization schemes differ from each other. These
different generated profiles are compared with the actual data and the root mean square error (RMSE) was calculated between
them. In case of the Holland vortex, ‘b’ is found to be equal to 1.5 and 2.0 respectively for two cases of very severe cyclonic storms in the Arabian Sea, namely
6–10 June 1998 and 16–20 May 1999 and 2.25 for the severe cyclonic storm in the Bay of Bengal. The ‘α’ parameter in Rankine’s
scheme was found to be 0.5 for two cases and 0.4 for the third system. This shows that cyclones differ even if they attain
the same intensity. The values of these parameters i.e. ‘b’ and ‘α’ are used for generating the synthetic wind data for individual cyclones and the same is used in the data assimilation
system. The analysis and forecast generated for the above cases using the Holland scheme show that the simulated structure
has characteristics closer to the actual storm; however, the Rankine scheme shows a weaker circulation. The mean track error
for three cases in the Holland scheme is 93, 149, 257 and 307 km in 12-, 24-, 36- and 48-h forecast. The mean track errors
for the Rankine scheme are 152, 274, 345 and 327 km, respectively, for the same period. 相似文献
6.
A number of sensitivity experiments have been conducted to investigate the influence of using synthetic data on cyclone forecasts
by a global spectral model. Some well known vortices have been used and the generated wind and pressure profiles are compared.
It is found that the Rankine vortex and Holland’s vortex show the best representation of cyclonic circulation. Hence these
two vortices are used in the sensitivity studies to simulate two cyclones, one of May 1979 and the other of August 1979. For
this purpose the FGGE level-III b data set, produced at ECM WF, UK is used. Synthetic temperature and humidity data are also
introduced to make the cyclones more realistic.
With the use of Holland’s vortex the system is found to move faster than with the Rankine vortex. Also, the tracks of the
cyclones simulated with Rankine vortex are found to be on the left side of the observed track while that of Holland’s vortex
is on the right side of the observed track. However, substantial filling up of the systems are noticed with introduction of
diabatic initialization of the mass and velocity fields and the forecasts of both the vortices behave differently. It is suggested
that proper selection of synthetic vortex, initialization scheme and resolution of the model are very important for better
forecast of cyclones. 相似文献
7.
It is well recognized that sea surface temperature (SST) plays a dominant role in the formation and intensification of tropical
cyclones. A number of observational/empirical studies were conducted at different basins to investigate the influence of SST
on the intensification of tropical cyclones and in turn, modification in SST by the cyclone itself. Although a few modeling
studies confirmed the sensitivity of model simulation/forecast to SST, it is not well quantified, particularly for Bay of
Bengal cyclones. The present study is designed to quantify the sensitivity of SST on mesoscale simulation of an explosively
deepening storm over the Bay of Bengal, i.e., Orissa super cyclone (1999). Three numerical experiments are conducted with
climatological SST, NCEP (National Center for Environmental Prediction) skin temperature as SST, and observed SST (satellite
derived) toward 5-day simulation of the storm using mesoscale model MM5. At model initial state, NCEP skin temperature and
observed SST over the Bay of Bengal are 1–2°C warmer than climatological SST, but cooler by nearly 1°C along the coastline.
Observed SST shows a number of warm patches in the Bay of Bengal compared with NCEP skin temperature. The simulation results
indicate that the sea surface temperature has a significant impact on model-simulated track and intensity of the cyclonic
storm. The track and intensity of the storm is better simulated with the use of satellite-observed SST. 相似文献
8.
The present work is concerned with the study of intensification of tropical disturbances with a view to improve prediction
and early warning. The tropical disturbances are known to come in sizes (radii) ranging from 100–400 kms. Since the vortices
of different sizes give rise to different initial convergence fields and since the subsequent development of the tropical
depressions is very sensitive to the initial convergence fields, we argue that the size of the incipient vortex is likely
to be an important factor in determining the subsequent development of a tropical disturbance.
We have examined the above hypothesis using an axisymmetric model of tropical cyclone. The incipient vortex is introduced
by prescribing an initial temperature perturbation with wind in gradient balance. The results show a fairly sharp selection
of scale at about 250 km radius. This implies that out of a number of initial disturbances of varying sizes and embedded in
the same large scale environment, it is the vortex with about 250 km radius size that will develop to the most severe system.
The sensitivity of this selective intensification at this incipient vortex radius to initial perturbation field and the mean
thermodynamic state is investigated. Finally, the importance of such a selective scale of intensification for prediction,
tracking and early warning of tropical cyclones is emphasized. 相似文献
9.
Sensitivity of tropical cyclone intensification to boundary layer and convective processes 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1
This study examines the role of the parameterization of convection, planetary boundary layer (PBL) and explicit moisture processes
on tropical cyclone intensification. A high-resolution mesoscale model, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) model MM5,
with two interactive nested domains at resolutions 90 km and 30 km was used to simulate the Orissa Super cyclone, the most
intense Indian cyclone of the past century. The initial fields and time-varying boundary variables and sea surface temperatures
were taken from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) (FNL) one-degree data set. Three categories of sensitivity
experiments were conducted to examine the various schemes of PBL, convection and explicit moisture processes. The results
show that the PBL processes play crucial roles in determining the intensity of the cyclone and that the scheme of Mellor-Yamada
(MY) produces the strongest cyclone. The combination of the parameterization schemes of MY for planetary boundary layer, Kain-Fritsch2
for convection and Mixed-Phase for explicit moisture produced the best simulation in terms of intensity and track. The simulated
cyclone produced a minimum sea level pressure of 930 hPa and a maximum wind of 65 m s−1 as well as all of the characteristics of a mature tropical cyclone with an eye and eye-wall along with a warm core structure.
The model-simulated precipitation intensity and distribution were in good agreement with the observations. The ensemble mean
of all 12 experiments produced reasonable intensity and the best track. 相似文献
10.
Impact of physical parameterization schemes on numerical simulation of super cyclone Gonu 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
The objective of this study is to investigate in detail the sensitivity of cumulus, planetary boundary layer and explicit
cloud microphysics parameterization schemes on intensity and track forecast of super cyclone Gonu (2007) using the Pennsylvania
State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research Fifth-Generation Mesoscale Model (MM5). Three sets of sensitivity
experiments (totally 11 experiments) are conducted to examine the impact of each of the aforementioned parameterization schemes
on the storm’s track and intensity forecast. Convective parameterization schemes (CPS) include Grell (Gr), Betts–Miller (BM)
and updated Kain–Fritsch (KF2); planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes include Burk–Thompson (BT), Eta Mellor–Yamada (MY)
and the Medium-Range Forecast (MRF); and cloud microphysics parameterization schemes (MPS) comprise Warm Rain (WR), Simple
Ice (SI), Mixed Phase (MP), Goddard Graupel (GG), Reisner Graupel (RG) and Schultz (Sc). The model configuration for CPS and
PBL experiments includes two nested domains (90- and 30-km resolution), and for MPS experiments includes three nested domains
(90-, 30- and 10-km grid resolution). It is found that the forecast track and intensity of the cyclone are most sensitive
to CPS compared to other physical parameterization schemes (i.e., PBL and MPS). The simulated cyclone with Gr scheme has the
least forecast track error, and KF2 scheme has highest intensity. From the results, influence of cumulus convection on steering
flow of the cyclone is evident. It appears that combined effect of midlatitude trough interaction, strength of the anticyclone
and intensity of the storm in each of these model forecasts are responsible for the differences in respective track forecast
of the cyclone. The PBL group of experiments has less influence on the track forecast of the cyclone compared to CPS. However,
we do note a considerable variation in intensity forecast due to variations in PBL schemes. The MY scheme produced reasonably
better forecast within the group with a sustained warm core and better surface wind fields. Finally, results from MPS set
of experiments demonstrate that explicit moisture schemes have profound impact on cyclone intensity and moderate impact on
cyclone track forecast. The storm produced from WR scheme is the most intensive in the group and closer to the observed strength.
The possible reason attributed for this intensification is the combined effect of reduction in cooling tendencies within the
storm core due to the absence of melting process and reduction of water loading in the model due to absence of frozen hydrometeors
in the WR scheme. We also note a good correlation between evolution of frozen condensate and storm intensification rate among
these experiments. It appears that the Sc scheme has some systematic bias and because of that we note a substantial reduction
in the rain water formation in the simulated storm when compared to others within the group. In general, it is noted that
all the sensitivity experiments have a tendency to unrealistically intensify the storm at the later part of the integration
phase. 相似文献
11.
In this study a non-hydrostatic version of Penn State University (PSU) -- NationalCenter for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) mesoscale model is used to simulate thesuper cyclonic storm that crossed Orissa coast on 29 October 1999. The model isintegrated up to 123 h for producing 5-day forecast of the storm. Several importantfields including sea level pressure, horizontal wind and rainfall are compared with theverification analysis/observation to examine the performance of the model. The modelsimulated track of the cyclone is compared with the best-fit track obtained from IndiaMeteorological Department (IMD) and the track obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. The model is found to perform reasonably well in simulating the track and in particular, the intensity of the storm. 相似文献
12.
The very severe cyclonic storm Nargis of 2008 was a strong tropical cyclone that caused the deadliest natural disaster in the history of Myanmar. The time tested NCAR/PSU MM5 model has been used to simulate the Nargis cyclone, which is designed to have two domains covering the Bay of Bengal with horizontal resolutions of 90 and 30?km. The physics options chosen are Kain?CFritsch 2 for convection, Blackadar (BLA), Burk?CThompson, medium range forecast (MRF), Eta Mellor?CYamada (Eta MY) and Gayno?CSeaman (GS) for Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) and Simple Ice for explicit cloud physics processes. The experiment was conducted with the model integration starting from April 27, 2008, to May 3, 2008. The performance of the five PBL schemes is evaluated in terms of radius height cross-section of the three component winds, surface heat fluxes of sensible heat and latent heat, equivalent potential temperature (?? e ), precipitation, track and variation of Central Surface Pressure and wind speed with time. The numerical results show a large impact of the PBL schemes on the intensity and movement of the system. The intensity of the storm is examined in terms of pressure drop, strength of the surface wind and rainfall associated with the storm. The results are compared to the India Meteorological Department observations. These experiments indicate that the intensity of the storm is well simulated with the Eta MY and BLA with finer resolution. The simulated track with MRF compared well with the Joint Typhoon Warning Center observation at landfall position both with the 90 and 30?km resolutions. 相似文献
13.
A method of initializing tropical cyclones in high-resolution numerical models is developed by modifying a data assimilation system, the NRL atmospheric variational data assimilation system (NAVDAS), which was designed for general mesoscale weather prediction using a three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) analysis with intermittent updates. The method includes the following three upgrades to overcome difficulties resulting from tropical cyclone initialization with the NAVDAS analysis. First, synthetic observation soundings are generated on 9 vertical levels at 49 points for strong storms (v max?>?23.1?m?s?1) and 41 points for weak storms around each cyclone center to supplement the observations used by the analysis. Secondly, a vortex relocation method for nested grids is developed to correct the cyclone position in the background fields of the analysis for each nested mesh. Lastly, the 3DVAR analysis is modified to gradually reduce the horizontal length scale and geostrophic coupling constraint near the center of a tropical cyclone for minimizing the problems introduced by improper covariances and coupling constraint used in the analysis. The synthetic observations significantly improve the intensity and structure of the analysis and the track forecast. The vortex relocation significantly improves the first guess background, avoiding the large analysis corrections that would be needed to correct cyclone position, and reducing the imbalance introduced by such large analysis increments. The modifications to the analysis length scale and geostrophic coupling constraint successfully improve the inner core analysis, providing a tighter circulation, and reducing the underestimate of the mass field gradient. Among the three upgrades, the vortex relocation provides the largest improvement to the tropical cyclone initialization and forecast. 相似文献
14.
A tropical cyclone was formed over central northern Africa near Egypt, Libya and Crete, and it moved and deepened toward the north–northeast; meanwhile, the storm destroyed many regions in the west, southwest and central of Turkey. The cyclone carried huge dust from the north of Africa to Turkey and reduced the visibility to less than 1 km and raised the wind speed. As a result of severe storm, some meteorological stations have new extreme values that the strongest wind speed measured was 81 knots in the central region of Turkey. Medicane with wind speed 81 knots especially over Turkey is a rare event. This devastating cyclone carried exceptionally very strong winds (>80 kts) with favorable conditions to follow windstorm conceptual model. The cyclone caused adverse conditions such as excessive injuries, fatal incidents and forest fires. Mesoscale vortex formed and affected particularly the middle and western regions of Turkey. The vertical thermodynamic structure of storm is compared with April values of 40 years of datasets over Istanbul. Moreover, four different winds {measurement masts} of Istanbul Atatürk Airport are used for the microscale analysis of different meteorological parameters during deepened pressure level. In addition, divergence and vorticity of stormy weather are discussed in details during the effective time period of storm by solving equations and validated using ERA-40 reanalysis. We obtained many monitoring data sources such as ground base, radar, radiosonde and satellite display the values of the intensity of wind speed caused by cyclones of tropics have revealed similarities. 相似文献
15.
Krishna K. Osuri U. C. Mohanty A. Routray Makarand A. Kulkarni M. Mohapatra 《Natural Hazards》2012,63(3):1337-1359
The convection and planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes play significant role in the genesis and intensification of tropical cyclones (TCs). Several convection and PBL parameterization schemes incorporate these processes in the numerical weather prediction models. Therefore, a systematic intercomparison of performance of parameterization schemes is essential to customize a model. In this context, six combinations of physical parameterization schemes (2 PBL Schemes, YSU and MYJ, and 3 convection schemes, KF, BM, and GD) of WRF-ARW model are employed to obtain the optimum combination for the prediction of TCs over North Indian Ocean. Five cyclones are studied for sensitivity experiments and the out-coming combination is tested on real-time prediction of TCs during 2008. The tracks are also compared with those provided by the operational centers like NCEP, ECMWF, UKMO, NCMRWF, and IMD. It is found that the combination of YSU PBL scheme with KF convection scheme (YKF) provides a better prediction of intensity, track, and rainfall consistently. The average RMSE of intensity (13?hPa in CSLP and 11?m?s?1 in 10-m wind), mean track, and landfall errors is found to be least with YKF combination. The equitable threat score (ETS) of YKF combination is more than 0.2 for the prediction of 24-h accumulated rainfall up to 125?mm. The vertical structural characteristics of cyclone inner core also recommend the YKF combination for Indian seas cyclones. In the real-time prediction of 2008 TCs, the 72-, 48-, and 24-h mean track errors are 172, 129, and 155?km and the mean landfall errors are 125, 73, and 66?km, respectively. Compared with the track of leading operational agencies, the WRF model is competing in 24?h (116?km error) and 72?h (166?km) but superior in 48-h (119?km) track forecast. 相似文献
16.
The present study examines the dynamics of mid-tropospheric vortex during cyclogenesis and quantifies the importance of such vortex developments in the intensification of tropical cyclone. The genesis of tropical cyclones are investigated based on two most widely accepted theories that explain the mechanism of cyclone formation namely ‘top-down’ and ‘bottom-up’ dynamics. The Weather Research and Forecast model is employed to generate high resolution dataset required for analysis. The development of the mid-level vortex was analyzed with regard to the evolution of potential vorticity (PV), relative vorticity (RV) and vertical wind shear. Two tropical cyclones which include the developing cyclone, Hudhud and the non-developing cyclone, Helen are considered. Further, Hudhud and Helen, is compared to a deep depression formed over Bay of Bengal to highlight the significance of the mid-level vortex in the genesis of a tropical cyclone. Major results obtained are as follows: stronger positive PV anomalies are noticed over upper and lower levels of troposphere near the storm center for Hudhud as compared to Helen and the depression; Constructive interference in upper and lower level positive PV anomaly maxima resulted in the intensification of Hudhud. For Hudhud, the evolution of RV follows ‘top-down’ dynamics, in which the growth starts from the middle troposphere and then progresses downwards. As for Helen, RV growth seems to follow ‘bottom-up’ mechanism initiating growth from the lower troposphere. Though, the growth of RV for the depression initiates from mid-troposphere, rapid dissipation of mid-level vortex destabilizes the system. It is found that the formation mid-level vortex in the genesis phase is significantly important for the intensification of the storm. 相似文献
17.
Sultan Al-Yahyai Abeer Aulad Thani Noura Al-kaabi Khalifa Al-Sudairi Badriya Al-Mawali Issa Al Amri 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2017,10(4):76
An accurate tropical cyclone track and intensity forecast is very important for disaster management. Specialized numerical prediction models have been recently used to provide high-resolution temporal and special forecasts. Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) model is one of the emerging numerical models for tropical cyclone forecasting. This study evaluates the performance of HWRF model during the post monsoon tropical cyclone Nilofar on the north Indian Ocean basin. The evaluation uses the best track data provided by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC). Cyclone track, central pressure, and wind speed are covered on this evaluation. Generally, HWRF was able to predict the Nilofar track with track error less than 230 km within the first 66 h of forecast time span. HWRF predicted more intense tropical cyclone. It predicted the lowest central pressure to be 922 hPa while it reached 950 hPa according to IMD and 937 hPa according to JTWC. Wind forecast was better as it predicted maximum wind speed of 122 kt while it reached 110 and 115 kt according to IMD and JTWC, respectively. 相似文献
18.
Numerical simulation of cyclonic storms FANOOS, NARGIS with assimilation of conventional and satellite observations using 3-DVAR 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
C. V. Srinivas V. Yesubabu K. B. R. R. Hari Prasad B. Venkatraman S. S. V. S. Ramakrishna 《Natural Hazards》2012,63(2):867-889
In this work, the impact of assimilation of conventional and satellite data is studied on the prediction of two cyclonic storms in the Bay of Bengal using the three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3D-VAR) technique. The FANOOS cyclone (December 6?C10, 2005) and the very severe cyclone NARGIS (April 28?CMay 2, 2008) were simulated with a double-nested weather research and forecasting (WRF-ARW) model at a horizontal resolution of 9?km. Three numerical experiments were performed using the WRF model. The back ground error covariance matrix for 3DVAR over the Indian region was generated by running the model for a 30-day period in November 2007. In the control run (CTL), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global forecast system analysis at 0.5° resolution was used for the initial and boundary conditions. In the second experiment called the VARCON, the conventional surface and upper air observations were used for assimilation. In the third experiment (VARQSCAT), the ocean surface wind vectors from quick scatterometer (QSCAT) were used for assimilation. The CTL and VARCON experiments have produced higher intensity in terms of sea level pressure, winds and vorticity fields but with higher track errors. Assimilation of conventional observations has meager positive impact on the intensity and has led to negative impact on simulated storm tracks. The QSCAT vector winds have given positive impact on the simulations of intensity and track positions of the two storms, the impact is found to be relatively higher for the moderate intense cyclone FANOOS as compared to very severe cyclone NARGIS. 相似文献
19.
Tropical cyclone is one of the most devastating weather phenomena all over the world. The Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) of the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) has developed a sophisticated mesoscale model known as Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) system for tropical cyclone studies. The state-of-the-art HWRF model (atmospheric component) has been used in simulating most of the features our present study of a very severe tropical cyclone ??Mala??, which developed on April 26 over the Bay of Bengal and crossed the Arakan coast of Myanmar on April 29, 2006. The initial and lateral boundary conditions are obtained from Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis and forecast fields of the NCEP, respectively. The performance of the model is evaluated with simulation of cyclone Mala with six different initial conditions at an interval of 12?h each from 00 UTC 25 April 2006 to 12 UTC 27 April 2006. The best result in terms of track and intensity forecast as obtained from different initial conditions is further investigated for large-scale fields and structure of the cyclone. For this purpose, a number of important predicted fields?? viz. central pressure/pressure drop, winds, precipitation, etc. are verified against observations/verification analysis. Also, some of the simulated diagnostic fields such as relative vorticity, pressure vertical velocity, heat fluxes, precipitation rate, and moisture convergences are investigated for understanding of the characteristics of the cyclone in more detail. The vector displacement errors in track forecasts are calculated with the estimated best track provided by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The results indicate that the model is able to capture most of the features of cyclone Mala with reasonable accuracy. 相似文献
20.
C. V. Srinivas V. Yesubabu K. B. R. R. Hariprasad S. S. V. Ramakrishna B. Venkatraman 《Natural Hazards》2013,65(1):331-357
Real-time predictions for the JAL severe cyclone formed in November 2010 over Bay of Bengal using a high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF ARW) mesoscale model are presented. The predictions are evaluated with different initial conditions and assimilation of observations. The model is configured with two-way interactive nested domains and with fine resolution of 9?km for the region covering the Bay of Bengal. Simulations are performed with NCEP GFS 0.5° analysis and forecasts for initial/boundary conditions. To examine the impact of initial conditions on the forecasts, eleven real-time numerical experiments are conducted with model integration starting at 00, 06, 12, 18 UTC 4 Nov, 5?Nov and 00, 06, 12 UTC 6 Nov and all ending at 00 UTC 8 Nov. Results indicated that experiments starting prior to 18 UTC 04 Nov produced faster moving cyclones with higher intensity relative to the IMD estimates. The experiments with initial time at 18 UTC 04 Nov, 00 UTC 05 Nov and with integration length of 78?h and 72?h produced best prediction comparable with IMD estimates of the cyclone track and intensity parameters. To study the impact of observational assimilation on the model predictions FDDA, grid nudging is performed separately using (1) land-based automated weather stations (FDDAAWS), (2) MODIS temperature and humidity profiles (FDDAMODIS), and (3) ASCAT and OCEANSAT wind vectors (FDDAASCAT). These experiments reduced the pre-deepening period of the storm by 12?h and produced an early intensification. While the assimilation of AWS data has shown meagre impact on intensity, the assimilation of scatterometer winds produced an intermittent drop in intensity in the peak stage. The experiments FDDAMODIS and FDDAQSCAT produced minimum error in track and intensity estimates for a 90-h prediction of the storm. 相似文献