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1.
Global Perspectives on Loss of Human Life Caused by Floods 总被引：14，自引：4，他引：10
Every year floods cause enormous damage all over the world. This study investigates loss of human life statistics for different types of floods and different regions on a global scale. The OFDA/CRED Database contains data on international disasters and is maintained by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters in Brussels (CRED) in cooperation with United States Office for Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA). Information from this source on a large number of flood events, which occurred between January 1975 and June 2002, is evaluated with respect to flood location and flood type. Due to the limited availability of information on coastal flood events, the scope of this study is limited to three types of freshwater flooding: river floods, flash floods and drainage problems. First, the development of loss of life statistics over time is discussed. Second, the dataset is analysed by region, by flood type and by the combination of type and region. The study shows that flash floods result in the highest average mortality per event (the number of fatalities divided by the number of affected persons). A cross analysis by flood type and location shows that average mortality is relatively constant for the different types over various continents, while the magnitude of the impacts (numbers of killed) and affected for a certain type varies between the different continents. On a worldwide scale Asian river floods are most significant in terms of number of persons killed and affected. Finally, a comparison with figures for other types of natural disasters shows that floods are the most significant disaster type in terms of the number of persons affected. 相似文献
2.
新疆河流洪水与洪灾的变化趋势 总被引：32，自引：11，他引：21
在西北气候由暖干转向暖湿的过程中,新疆河流的洪水和洪灾反映明显.对新疆29条河流选取年最大洪水,统计出超标准洪水、20a一遇、50a一遇洪水的出现频次进行分析,结果显示1987年后洪水量级、洪水频次呈增加的变化趋势.通过20世纪90年代以来灾害性洪水出现的频次、灾害损失的变化比较分析,90年代以来灾害性洪水尤其是灾害性暴雨洪水和突发性洪水呈现增加的态势,1987—2000年的灾害损失与1950—1986年相比增加了30倍. 相似文献
3.
Bingshun He Xianlong Huang Meihong Ma Qingrui Chang Yong Tu Qing Li Ke Zhang Yang Hong 《Natural Hazards》2018,90(1):407-420
Flash floods are one of the most disastrous natural hazards and cause serious loss of life and economic damage every year. Flooding frequently affects many regions in China, including periodically catastrophic events. An extensive compilation of the available data has been conducted across various hydroclimatological regions to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of flash floods in China. This inventory includes over 782 documented events and is the first step toward establishing an atlas of extreme flash flood occurrences in China. This paper first presents the data compilation strategy, details of the database contents, and the typical examples of first-hand analysis results. The subsequent analysis indicates that the most extreme flash floods originate mainly from small catchments over complex terrains and results in dominantly small- and medium-sized flooding events in terms of scales; however, these events, abrupt and seasonally recurrent in nature, account for a large proportion of the overall flooding-related disasters, especially disproportionately affecting elderly and youth populations. Finally, this study also recommends several immediate measures could be implemented to mitigate high impacts of deadly flash floods, although it still requires long-term significant efforts to protect human life and property in a country like China. 相似文献
4.
Self-protective behavior by residents of flood-prone urban areas can reduce monetary flood damage by 80%, and reduce the need
for public risk management. But, research on the determinants of private households’ prevention of damage by natural hazards
is rare, especially in Germany. To answer the question of why some people take precautionary action while others do not, a
socio-psychological model based on Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) is developed, explaining private precautionary damage
prevention by residents’ perceptions of previous flood experience, risk of future floods, reliability of public flood protection,
the efficacy and costs of self-protective behavior, their perceived ability to perform these actions, and non-protective responses
like wishful thinking. The validity of the proposed model is explored by means of representative quantitative telephone surveys
and regression analyses, and compared with a socio-economic model (including residents’ age, gender, income, school degree
and being owner or tenant). Participants were 157 residents of flood-prone homes in Cologne, Germany, a city that has traditionally
been subject to minor and major flood events. Results of the study show the explanatory power of the socio-psychological model,
with important implications for public risk communication efforts. To motivate residents in flood-prone areas to take their
share in damage prevention, it is essential to communicate not only the risk of flooding and its potential consequences, but
also the possibility, effectiveness and cost of private precautionary measures. 相似文献
5.
Flood is among the deadliest disasters in India, and the frequency of floods and extreme precipitation events is projected to increase under the warming climate. The frequency of floods in India varies geographically as some regions are more prone to floods than the others. The Kerala flood of 2018 caused enormous economic damage, affected millions of people, and resulted in the death of more than 400 people. Here we provide a hydroclimatological perspective on the Kerala flood of 2018. Using the observations and model simulations from the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, we show that the 2018 extreme precipitation and runoff conditions that caused flooding were unprecedented in the record of the past 66 years (1951–2017). Our results show that mean monsoon precipitation has significantly declined while air temperature has significantly increased during 1951–2017 in Kerala. The drying and warming trends during the monsoon season resulted in a declined total runoff in large part of the state in the last 66 years. Apart from the mean hydroclimatic conditions, extreme precipitation, and extreme total runoff have also declined from 1951 to 2017. However, 1 and 2-day extreme precipitation and extreme runoff conditions in August 2018 exceeded substantially from the long-term 95th percentiles recorded during 1951–2017. Since there is no increase in mean and extreme precipitation in Kerala over the last six decades, the extreme event during August 2018 is likely to be driven by anomalous atmospheric conditions due to climate variability rather anthropogenic climate warming. The severity of the Kerala flood of 2018 and the damage caused might be affected by several factors including land use/land cover change, antecedent hydrologic conditions, reservoir storage and operations, encroachment of flood plains, and other natural factors. The impacts of key drivers (anthropogenic and natural) on flood severity need to be established to improve our understanding of floods and associated damage. 相似文献
6.
Comparison of TRMM-based flood indices for Gaziantep,Turkey 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Floods are the most common natural disasters threatening the welfare of humanity. Gaziantep, a city located in a semi-arid region of Turkey, is occasionally flooded, and in May 2014, a flood not only caused property damage, but also resulted in the death of a lady who became trapped in flood waters. The fatality and property damage of flash floods arise from the limited response time for remediation. Despite improvements in numerical weather predictions, forecasting flash floods is not easy. Due to its frequent observations, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) real-time (RT) 3B42RT data are tested for Gaziantep flood predictions in this study. During TRMM era, six floods occurred in Gaziantep. Three-hourly 3B42RT data covering the 2000- to 2014-year period indicated high rain rates during months in which floods were observed. Also daily variation of rainfall was well represented. High-intensity rain (HIR), cumulative distribution functions (CDF) and Gaziantep Flood Index (GAFI) indices are developed for flood characterization. HIR, calculated as 10 mm/h, detected October and December of 2010 floods. CDFs with 99, 98.5, 95 and 91.3% indicated 4 floods occurred in August 2005, June 2007, October 2010 and December 2010, respectively. GAFI was able to detect 4 out of 6 occurrences (August 2005, June 2007, October 2010 and December 2010) as values ranging from 1 to 2.63 are selected for monthly precipitation. In the missed occurrence, 3B42RT did not indicate any rainfall. Although only rain rates are used in flood characterization, the results are promising, and the simplicity of the methodology favors its usage. Also, methodology can easily be implemented to TRMM following missions such as Global Precipitation Measurement Mission. 相似文献
7.
Floods in the IPCC TAR Perspective 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Recent floods have become more abundant and more destructive than ever in many regions of the globe. Destructive floods observed in the 1990s all over the world have led to record-high material damage, with total losses exceeding one billion US dollars in each of two dozen events. The immediate question emerges as to the extent to which a sensible rise in flood hazard and vulnerability can be linked to climate variability and change. Links between climate change and floods have found extensive coverage in the Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Since the material on floods is scattered over many places of two large volumes of the TAR, the present contribution - a guided tour to floods in the IPCC TAR – may help a reader notice the different angles from which floods were considered in the IPCC report. As the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere grows with temperature, the potential for intensive precipitation also increases. Higher and more intense precipitation has been already observed and this trend is expected to increase in the future, warmer world. This is a sufficient condition for flood hazard to increase. Yet there are also other, non-climatic, factors exacerbating flood hazard. According to the IPCC TAR, the analysis of extreme events in both observations and coupled models is underdeveloped. It is interesting that the perception of floods in different parts of the TAR is largely different. Large uncertainty is emphasized in the parts dealing with the science of climate change, but in the impact chapters, referring to sectors and regions, growth in flood risk is taken for granted. Floods have been identified on short lists of key regional concerns. 相似文献
8.
The peculiar rainfall pattern in Indiarenders the country highly vulnerable to floods. Forty million hectares of land, roughlyone-eighth of the country's geographical area, is prone to floods. Each year, floods cause extensive damage to life and property, losses being exacerbated by rapid population growth, unplanned development and unchecked environmental degradation. The country has been tackling the problem through structural and non-structural measures. While non-structural measures like flood forecasting aim at improving the preparedness to floods by seeking to keep people away from floodwaters, structural measures involve the construction of physical structures like embankments, dams, drainage channels, and reservoirs that prevent floodwaters from reaching potential damage centres. Almost 48% of the vulnerable area has been provided with reasonable protection, though floods continue to cause widespread losses year after year. This paper examines the incidence of floods and the trends in consequent losses in the eastern region of the country – one of the most vulnerable – with the objective of studying the efficacy of flood protection measures in the region. Based on a simple regression exercise for three highly vulnerable states in the region, the paper argues that flood protection measures have been inadequate in controlling losses and reducing vulnerability. Regressions for the three states over the period 1971 to 1996 indicate that the level of protection is an insignificant explanatory variable in explaining the number of people (adjusted for increases in density) affected by floods; while area affected, as an indicator of the intensity of floods remains the main loss-determining factor. 相似文献
9.
三峡水库建成后,长江中下游防洪形势显著改善,但由于经济社会发展,防洪要求的提高和江湖关系的变化,长江防洪形势发生了一些新的变化。以1954年和1998年典型大洪水为例,分析了三峡水库建成后长江中下游防洪形势出现的新变化,讨论了长江中下游蓄滞洪空间格局调整及江湖关系变化对于防洪的影响。根据长江水沙变化、河道演变、水库群调控和分蓄洪区使用几率变化等出现的新问题,提出未来防洪战略及对策。结果表明:三峡建成后,百年一遇以下洪水防御形势明显好转,而百年一遇以上特大防洪的防洪形势仍然严峻,洪水风险主要转移到水库群上;今后需要在加强蓄滞洪区建设的基础上,重点推动防洪非工程措施建设,以减轻特大洪水带来的灾害损失。 相似文献
10.
Use of Systematic, Palaeoflood and Historical Data for the Improvement of Flood Risk Estimation. Review of Scientific Methods 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Gerardo Benito Michel Lang Mariano Barriendos M. Carmen Llasat Felix Francés Taha Ouarda Varyl Thorndycraft Yehouda Enzel Andras Bardossy Denis Coeur Bernard Bobée 《Natural Hazards》2004,31(3):623-643
The catastrophic floods recently occurring in Europe warn of the critical need forhydrologic data on floods over long-time scales. Palaeoflood techniques provideinformation on hydrologic variability and extreme floods over long-time intervals(100 to 10,000 yr) and may be used in combination with historical flood data (last1,000 yr) and the gauge record (last 30–50 yr). In this paper, advantages anduncertainties related to the reconstruction of palaeofloods in different geomorphologicalsettings and historical floods using different documentary sources are described.Systematic and non-systematic data can be combined in the flood frequency analysisusing different methods for the adjustment of distribution functions. Technical toolsintegrating multidisciplinary approaches (geologic, historical, hydraulic and statistical)on extreme flood risk assessment are discussed. A discussion on the potential theoreticalbases for solving the problem of dealing with non-systematic and non-stationary data ispresented. This methodology is being developed using new methodological approachesapplied to European countries as a part of a European Commission funded project (SPHERE). 相似文献
11.
Late Wisconsin floods from glacial Lake Missoula occurred between approximately 16 and 12 ka BP. Many floods occurred; some were demonstrably cataclysmic. Early studies of Missoula flooding centered on the anomalous physiography of the Channeled Scabland, which J. Harlen Bretz hypothesized in 1923 to have developed during a debacle that he named ‘The Spokane Flood’. Among the ironies in the controversy over this hypothesis was a mistaken view of uniformitarianism held by Bretz's adversaries. After resolution of the scabland's origin by cataclysmic outburst flooding from glacial Lake Missoula, research since 1960 emphasized details of flood magnitudes, frequency, routing and number.Studies of flood hydraulics and other physical parameters need to utilize modern computerized procedures for flow modeling, lake-burst simulation, and sediment-transport analysis. Preliminary simulation models indicate the probability of multiple Late Wisconsin jökulhlaups from Lake Missoula, although these models predict a wide range of flood magnitudes.Major advances have been made in the study of low-energy, rhythmically bedded sediments that accumulated in flood slack-water areas. The ‘forty floods’ hypothesis postulates that each rhythmite represents the deposition in such slack-water areas of separate, distinct cataclysmic floods that can be traced from Lake Missoula to the vicinity of Portland, Oregon. However, the hypothesis has numerous unsubstantiated implications concerning flood magnitudes, sources, routing and sedimentation dynamics.There were multiple great Late Wisconsin floods in the Columbia River system of the northwestern United States. Studies of high-energy, high altitude flood deposits are necessary to evaluate the magnitudes of these floods. Improved geochronologic studies throughout the immense region impacted by the flooding will be required to properly evaluate flood frequency. The cataclysmic flood concept championed by J. Harlen Bretz continues to stimulate exciting and controversial research. 相似文献
12.
Analysis of non climatic origins of floods in the downstream part of the Kura River,Azerbaijan 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Over the past century, there is an increased contribution of non climatic factors to the flood formation processes in the
Kura River. Non climatic factors of floods refer to factors that are related to reductions in channel capacity and result
in floods. More recently, there are numerous non climatic factors occurring in and around the Kura River basin that have increased
the frequency of floods. Sediment accumulation in the riverbed over a long period of time has led to the reduction of channel
capacity and has raised the elevation of the riverbed above the surrounding territory. It is illustrated that construction
of dykes and levees do not actually prevent flooding, where hydrologic connections between groundwater and surface water are
high, since infiltrated waters from channel results in raising of ground waters, causing an effect of “underground flood.”
Since underground floods occur when water going from channels raises the level of ground waters, there is an urgent need to
carefully investigate the groundwater–surface water connections. With the purpose of predicting floods, the authors suggest
defining maximal acceptable flows (MAFs) rather than channel capacities. Results show that high rates of hydraulic conductivity
of soils will decrease MAF rates. MAF computations before high-water season allow for further regulation of outlets further
downstream in order to prevent flooding and enable flood forecasting. While the study focuses on a specific region, the overall
approach suggested is generic and may be applied elsewhere. 相似文献
13.
Maria Cortès Maria Carmen Llasat Joan Gilabert Montserrat Llasat-Botija Marco Turco Raül Marcos Juan Pedro Martín Vide Lluís Falcón 《Natural Hazards》2018,93(1):39-60
This contribution explores the evolution of the flood risk in the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona (MAB; Northeast Spain) from 1981 to 2015, and how it has been affected by changes in land use, population and precipitation. To complete this study, we analysed PRESSGAMA and INUNGAMA databases to look for all the information related to the floods and flash floods that have affected the chosen region. The “Consorcio de Compensación de Seguros”, a state insurance company for extraordinary risks, provided data on economic damage. The extreme precipitation trend was analysed by the Fabra Observatory and El Prat-Airport Observatory, and daily precipitation data were provided by the State Meteorological Agency of Spain (AEMET) and the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC). Population data were obtained from the Statistical Institute of Catalonia (IDESCAT). Changes in land use were estimated from the land use maps for Catalonia corresponding to 1956, 1993, 2000, 2005 and 2009. Prevention measures like rainwater tanks and improvements to the drainage system were also been considered. The specific case of Barcelona is presented, a city recognised by United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction as a model city for urban resilience to floods. The evolution of flood events in the MAB does not show any significant trend for this period. We argue that the evolution in floods can be explained, at least in part, by the lack of trend in extreme precipitation indices, and also by the improvements in flood prevention measures. 相似文献
14.
分析了美国20世纪洪水损失的演变情况及洪水损失对国民经济的影响,探讨了美国的洪水响应政策,并对中国和美国20世纪90年代的洪水损失进行比较研究.主要结论如下:①美国20世纪年均洪水损失以1.58%的增长率缓慢上升,20世纪末年均损失约为55.6亿美元;②洪水损失占GDP的比重逐渐下降,由20世纪30年代的0.334%下降到90年代的0.068%;③美国许多重大洪水政策的调整几乎都与特大洪水发生有关,呈由"遏制洪水"、"控制洪水"发展到"洪水管理"的演变历程;④通过比较研究发现,整个90年代是中国和美国洪水频发的时期,中国的年均洪水损失为1343.1亿元,损失占全国GDP的2.386%;而美国年均洪水损失虽然也达到了55.6亿美元,但只占全美GDP的0.068%;洪水对中国国民经济的影响远远大于对美国的影响. 相似文献
15.
Asadullah Kazi 《Natural Hazards》2014,70(1):839-864
16.
MD. Khalequzzaman 《Natural Hazards》1994,9(1-2):65-80
In recent years the frequency of abnormal floods in Bangladesh has increased substantially, causing serious damage to lives and property. The most crucial questions that need to be addressed are: what really causes the havoc-creating floods and is there any solution to the problem? The heavy monsoon downpour and synchronization of flood-peaks of the major rivers are generally considered to be the main causes of the floods. Some underlying factors also deserve serious consideration as possible contributors to the recent floods: change in the base level of the rivers due to local sea level rise and subsidence, inadequate sediment accumulation on flood plains, a possible increase in the watershed area due to seismic and neotectonic activities in the region, river bed aggradation due to siltation and damming of rivers, soil erosion due to unwise tilling practices, deforestation in the upstream region, and excessive development and population growth. Without regional cooperation among the co-riparian nations any major interbasin flood control activity is considered to be almost impossible. However, among other proposals in this paper, extensive annual dredging of the rivers, channels and creeks, and reoccupation of the abandoned channels in Bangladesh through re-excavations could still increase the water carrying capacity of the rivers. Land elevations could be increased if the dredged or excavated materials are dispersed on the flood plains, which would in turn reduce the severity of floods. 相似文献
17.
Ali M. Subyani 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2011,4(5-6):817-824
In arid regions, flash floods often occur as a consequence of excessive rainfall. Occasionally causing major loss of property and life, floods are large events of relatively short duration. Makkah area in western Saudi Arabia is characterized by high rainfall intensity that leads to flash floods. This study quantifies the hydrological characteristics and flood probability of some major wadis in western Saudi Arabia, including Na’man, Fatimah, and Usfan. Flood responses in these wadis vary due to the nature and rainfall distribution within these wadis. Rainfall frequency analysis was performed using selected annual maximums of 24-h rainfall from eight stations located in the area. Two of the most applied methods of statistical distribution, Gumbel’s extreme value distribution and log Pearson type III distribution, were applied to maximum daily rainfall data over 26 to 40 years. The Gumbel’s model was found to be the best fitting model for identifying and predicting future rainfall occurrence. Rainfall estimations from different return periods were identified. Probable maximum floods of the major wadis studied were also estimated for different return periods, which were extrapolated from the probable maximum precipitation. 相似文献
18.
Many lowland stream channels have dramatically widened over the last two centuries. There has been considerable debate about whether this widening was caused by an unusually large flood, by a series of large floods, or by decreased bank stability caused by clearing of riparian vegetation. The relative effects of floods and vegetation can be disentangled in southeastern Australia where streams have undergone both clearing of bank vegetation, and decadal sequences of relatively higher and lower flood magnitude and frequency. Archival aerial photographs of the Nepean River, in southeastern Australia, suggest that banks did not erode during periods of low flood magnitude (drought-dominated regime: from 1901–1949) whether they were cleared or not. However, during periods of flood-dominated regime (1950 to 1970s) only cleared stream banks eroded. Thus, on the upper Nepean River, clearing alone was insufficient to trigger erosion by small floods, and even large floods were unable to erode vegetated banks. The conclusion is that substantial channel widening in this river required both clearing of bank vegetation, and periods of unusually large and frequent floods. This conclusion is supported by geomechanical modelling that examine the reduction in bank shear strength arising from the loss of tree-root reinforcement. The modelling also suggests that bank instability arising from devegetation amplifies the potential for bank failure during the drawdown phase of a flood, leading to channel widening. 相似文献
19.
Policy makers need accurate disaster loss data for decisions about disaster assistance, policy evaluation, and scientific research priorities. But loss estimation is difficult in a disaster situation, and initial loss estimates are seldom evaluated in comparison with actual costs. This paper uses the example of historical flood damage data in the U.S. to evaluate disaster loss data. It evaluates the accuracy of historical flood damage estimates from two federal agencies. The U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) has compiled annual flood loss estimates for each state since 1955. Comparison of the NWS data with similar estimates from five state emergency management agencies reveals substantial disagreement between estimates from different sources. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) began in the 1990s to systematically collect damage estimates and cost data associated with its disaster assistance programs. Comparison of early damage estimates with actual expenditures in a California flood disaster reveals large errors in some estimates for individual counties, but no statistically significant tendency to underestimate or overestimate. Positive and negative errors tend to average out and the total damage estimate for the state approximates the final expenditures. Both comparisons indicate that damage estimates for small events or local jurisdictions often are extremely inaccurate. On the other hand, estimates aggregated over large areas or long time periods appear to be reasonably reliable; that is, this study finds that independent estimates for events with losses greater than $500 million disagree by less than 40. The paper suggests ways of interpreting and using such loss estimates to reduce the likelihood of misinterpretation.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation. 相似文献
20.
Li Chang’an Yin Hongfu Zhang Yufen Gu Yansheng Faculty of Earth Sciences China University of Geosciences Wuhan China 《中国地质大学学报(英文版)》2000,11(3)
CAUSE FOR FL OODS IN MIDDL E REACH OF YANGTZERIVERFlood,a kind of interface disaster,occurs atthe interfacebetween atmosphere and lithosphere. Flood happens when at-mosphere and lithosphere interplay and couple each other(ofcourse,biosphere may also join in this) . Both meteorologicaland geographical factors can bring about flood;the formercontrols the time of flood and the latter controls the place ofdisaster. The second Neocathaysian tectonic subsidence area(L i,1973) is the… 相似文献