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1.
Climate change in the twenty-first century will strongly affect the processes that define natural and human systems. The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment (WACCIA) was intended to identify the nature and effects of climate change on natural and human resources in Washington State over the next century. The assessment focused on eight sectors that were identified as being potentially most climate sensitive: agriculture, energy, salmon, urban stormwater infrastructure, forests, human health, coasts, and water resources. Most of these sectors are sensitive in one way or another to water availability. While water is generally abundant in the state under current climate conditions, its availability is highly variable in space and time, and these variations are expected to change as the climate warms. Here we summarize the results of the WACCIA and identify uncertainties and common mechanisms that relate many of the impacts. We also address cross-sectoral sensitivities, vulnerabilities, and adaptation strategies.  相似文献   

2.
全球气候变化对我国自然资源的影响   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  
阐述全球气候变化的现状和趋势，探讨了气候变化对我国水、森林和土地等自然资源的影响，以期为合理开发利用自然资源提供理论依据。  相似文献   

3.
Theoretical and Applied Climatology - In the last decades, anthropogenic drivers have significantly influenced the natural climate variability of Earth’s atmosphere. Climate change has become...  相似文献   

4.
Pacific Northwest (PNW) hydrology is particularly sensitive to changes in climate because snowmelt dominates seasonal runoff, and temperature changes impact the rain/snow balance. Based on results from the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4), we updated previous studies of implications of climate change on PNW hydrology. PNW 21st century hydrology was simulated using 20 Global Climate Models (GCMs) and 2 greenhouse gas emissions scenarios over Washington and the greater Columbia River watershed, with additional focus on the Yakima River watershed and the Puget Sound which are particularly sensitive to climate change. We evaluated projected changes in snow water equivalent (SWE), soil moisture, runoff, and streamflow for A1B and B1 emissions scenarios for the 2020s, 2040s, and 2080s. April 1 SWE is projected to decrease by approximately 38–46% by the 2040s (compared with the mean over water years 1917–2006), based on composite scenarios of B1 and A1B, respectively, which represent average effects of all climate models. In three relatively warm transient watersheds west of the Cascade crest, April 1 SWE is projected to almost completely disappear by the 2080s. By the 2080s, seasonal streamflow timing will shift significantly in both snowmelt dominant and rain–snow mixed watersheds. Annual runoff across the State is projected to increase by 2–3% by the 2040s; these changes are mainly driven by projected increases in winter precipitation.  相似文献   

5.
Interest in the impacts of climate change is ever increasing. This is particularly true of the water sector where understanding potential changes in the occurrence of both floods and droughts is important for strategic planning. Climate variability has been shown to have a significant impact on UK climate and accounting for this in future climate change projections is essential to fully anticipate potential future impacts. In this paper a new resampling methodology is developed which includes the variability of both baseline and future precipitation. The resampling methodology is applied to 13 CMIP3 climate models for the 2080s, resulting in an ensemble of monthly precipitation change factors. The change factors are applied to the Eden catchment in eastern Scotland with analysis undertaken for the sensitivity of future river flows to the changes in precipitation. Climate variability is shown to influence the magnitude and direction of change of both precipitation and in turn river flow, which are not apparent without the use of the resampling methodology. The transformation of precipitation changes to river flow changes display a degree of non-linearity due to the catchment’s role in buffering the response. The resampling methodology developed in this paper provides a new technique for creating climate change scenarios which incorporate the important issue of climate variability.  相似文献   

6.
This paper investigates the uncertainty in the impact of climate change on flood frequency in England, through the use of continuous simulation of river flows. Six different sources of uncertainty are discussed: future greenhouse gas emissions; Global Climate Model (GCM) structure; downscaling from GCMs (including Regional Climate Model structure); hydrological model structure; hydrological model parameters and the internal variability of the climate system (sampled by applying different GCM initial conditions). These sources of uncertainty are demonstrated (separately) for two example catchments in England, by propagation through to flood frequency impact. The results suggest that uncertainty from GCM structure is by far the largest source of uncertainty. However, this is due to the extremely large increases in winter rainfall predicted by one of the five GCMs used. Other sources of uncertainty become more significant if the results from this GCM are omitted, although uncertainty from sources relating to modelling of the future climate is generally still larger than that relating to emissions or hydrological modelling. It is also shown that understanding current and future natural variability is critical in assessing the importance of climate change impacts on hydrology.  相似文献   

7.
Strategic-scale assessments of climate change impacts are often undertaken using the change factor (CF) methodology whereby future changes in climate projected by General Circulation Models (GCMs) are applied to a baseline climatology. Alternatively, statistical downscaling (SD) methods apply climate variables from GCMs to statistical transfer functions to estimate point-scale meteorological series. This paper explores the relative merits of the CF and SD methods using a case study of low flows in the River Thames under baseline (1961–1990) and climate change conditions (centred on the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s). Archived model outputs for the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP02) scenarios are used to generate daily precipitation and potential evaporation (PE) for two climate change scenarios via the CF and SD methods. Both signal substantial reductions in summer precipitation accompanied by increased PE throughout the year, leading to reduced flows in the Thames in late summer and autumn. However, changes in flow associated with the SD scenarios are generally more conservative and complex than that arising from CFs. These departures are explained in terms of the different treatment of multidecadal natural variability, temporal structuring of daily climate variables and large-scale forcing of local precipitation and PE by the two downscaling methods.  相似文献   

8.
全面分析了气候变化给企业带来的机遇与挑战。全球契约的"关注气候"倡议为企业响应全球号召应对气候变化带来了机遇,全球契约是全球企业共同应对气候变化、实现企业社会责任和树立企业形象的良好平台。另外,通过调查研究分析了中国民营企业应对气候变化的现状,并提出了相关政策建议。  相似文献   

9.
Climate change could have significant impacts on hydrology. This paper uses UK Climate Projections 09 (UKCP09) products to assess the impacts on flood frequency in Britain. The main UKCP09 product comprises conditional probabilistic information on changes in a number of climate variables on a 25?×?25?km grid across the UK (the Sampled Data change factors). A second product is a Weather Generator which produces time-series of current weather variables and future weather variables based on the Sampled Data and consistent with the change factors. A third product comprises time-series from a Regional Climate Model (RCM) ensemble which were used to downscale Global Climate Models (GCMs) on which the projections are based and whose outputs were used in the production of the Sampled Data. This paper compares the use of Sampled Data change factors, Weather Generator time-series, RCM-derived change factors and RCM time-series. Each is used to provide hydrological model inputs for nine catchments, to assess impacts for the 2080s (A1B emissions). The results show relatively good agreement between methods for most catchments, with the four median values for a catchment generally being within 10% of each other. There are also some clear differences, with the use of time-series generally leading to a greater uncertainty range than the use of change factors because the latter do not allow for the effects of, or changes in, natural variability. Also, the use of Weather Generator time-series leads to much greater impacts than the other methods for one catchment. The results suggest that climate impact studies should not necessarily rely on the application of just one UKCP09 product, as each has different strengths and weaknesses.  相似文献   

10.
女性在应对气候变化中处于不利地位,也是应对气候变化中不可忽视的力量。国际社会已逐渐认识到在应对气候变化进程中纳入性别考虑的重要意义,性别议题在气候谈判中的主流化趋势明显,《联合国气候变化框架公约》执行层面纳入性别考虑取得了长足的进展,以全球环境基金、绿色气候基金为代表的《联合国气候变化框架公约》资金机制已将性别政策纳入机构政策体系,并积极在项目层面推动性别政策的实施。虽然国际气候变化领域的性别主流化工作取得了较大进展,但仍存在女性参与气候变化决策的程度不足、减缓领域纳入性别考虑的程度不足等问题。目前中国气候变化领域对性别的关注不足,建议加强气候变化领域的性别问题研究,为履约工作提供支撑;在应对气候变化相关的政策体系中纳入性别考虑,加强与性别领域的沟通协作;加强气候变化相关机构性别主流化能力建设,明确职责安排;加强气候变化领域国内项目、“一带一路”项目和“南南合作”项目的性别主流化;切实加强中国女性应对气候变化能力,提高女性对气候行动的参与度。  相似文献   

11.
Climate change is a fundamental challenge for which agriculture is sensitive and vulnerable. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has identified relevant information as key to enabling appropriate climate adaptation and mitigation action. Information specifically directed to farmers can be found, for example, in specialized farming magazines. While recent studies examine how national news media frame climate change, less—if any—studies have addressed climate framings and coverage in specialized media. Media framings are storylines that provide meaning by communicating how and why an issue should be seen as a problem, how it should be handled, and who is responsible for it. This paper analyses the framings and coverage of climate change in two Swedish specialized farming magazines from 2000 to 2009. It examines the extent of the climate change coverage, the content of the media items, and the dominant framings underlying their climate change coverage. The study identifies: increased coverage of climate change starting in 2007; frequent coverage of agriculture’s contribution to climate change, climate change impacts on agriculture, and consequences of climate politics for agriculture; and four prominent frames: conflict, scientific certainty, economic burden, and action. The paper concludes that climate change communicators addressing farmers and agricultural extension officers should pay attention to how these frames may be interpreted by different target audiences. Research is needed on how specialized media reports on climate-related issues and how science-based climate information is understood by different groups of farmers and which other factors influence farmers’ engagement in climate mitigation and adaptation.  相似文献   

12.
Climatic impact assessment is generally conducted by reference to numerical models, from which most estimates of climatic change are derived, and to the policy developers, by whom the impact assessments are demanded. The propagation of estimates derived from numerical climate model predictions of greenhouse-induced climate change through impact models into policy advice is a precariously uncertain process which compounds the considerable uncertainties already inherent in policy development. Clear statements of scientific confidence in the greenhouse phenomenon in the mid-1980s prompted demands for policy, and hence for policy advice. In Australia, as in many other countries, public and political awareness of the possibility of greenhouse-induced climatic change increased. These developments led to the formation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC); to the Framework Convention on Climate Change, signed at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) in June 1992; and to the review of the World Climate Programme in April 1993. This special issue ofClimatic Change illustrates some aspects of the difficulties surrounding projections of climatic impacts at a national scale where policy development almost always occurs under conditions of uncertainty. It may be valuable to identify uncertainty issues which could benefit from additional research and also sensitive points in the policy development process at which uncertainty can be used and abused. In this paper, the role of uncertainty in the greenhouse debate is reviewed from the perspective of a natural scientist working in a developed country. The aim is to offer a framework for the rest of this special issue ofClimatic Change. Uncertainty is by no means the only factor which influences views on climate change but increased understanding and more informed debate of all aspects of the uncertainties relating greenhouse-induced climatic change to policy development and implementation would be beneficial.  相似文献   

13.
Assessment of climate change impact on Eastern Washington agriculture   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
An assessment of the potential impact of climate change and the concurrent increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration on eastern Washington State agriculture was conducted. Climate projections from four selected general circulation models (GCM) were chosen, and the assessment included the crops with larger economic value for the state (apples, potatoes, and wheat). To evaluate crop performance, a cropping system simulation model (CropSyst) was utilized using historical and future climate sequences. Crops were assumed to receive adequate water (irrigated crops), nutrients, and control of weeds, pests and diseases. Results project that the impact of climate change on eastern Washington agriculture will be generally mild in the short term (i.e., next two decades), but increasingly detrimental with time (potential yield losses reaching 25% for some crops by the end of the century). However, CO2 elevation is expected to provide significant mitigation, and in fact result in yield gains for some crops. The combination of increased CO2 and adaptive management may result in yield benefits for all crops. One limitation of the study is that water supply was assumed sufficient for irrigated crops, but other studies suggest that it may decrease in many locations due to climate change.  相似文献   

14.
利马气候大会达成的《利马气候行动号令》明确了《联合国气候变化框架公约》所有原则,尤其是共同但有区别的责任原则适用于拟于2015年巴黎会议达成的新协议。会议还就“国家自主决定的贡献”等做出了决定。利马大会成果对2015年巴黎气候大会达成气候变化新协议具有重要推动作用。面对2020年后的新挑战,中国需尽快制定应对气候变化法,建立碳排放交易机制,促进对应对气候变化先进技术投资,以及加大参与治理国际气候变化事务力度。  相似文献   

15.
Should energy projects to extend the use of natural gas be considered for funding under public climate finance commitments? This article provides an overview of evidence for and against climate finance for natural gas projects. The argument focuses on a case study, the UK’s International Climate Fund (ICF). This synthesis concludes that gas-related projects will rarely be eligible for funding under public climate finance, save a few exceptions in which they provide energy access to households directly. Although gas power plants have generally lower emissions than those which use other fossil fuels such as coal, their impact will depend on the material constraints to calculate emissions reductions, the context of implementation, and the political economy of the target country. Three case studies demonstrate that energy access projects need to be understood as providing a whole range of sustainable benefits, from improving local health to reducing emissions. Overall, gas-related projects are complex interventions that require context-specific knowledge of both the effects of technology and the possible business models that can work in context.

POLICY RELEVANCE

This article investigates whether projects related to natural gas constitute an appropriate use of public climate finance, with a particular focus on the UK’s International Climate Fund. Policy makers in developed countries will decide in the coming years how to use public climate finance; that is, the fraction of overseas development assistance (ODA) for climate change mitigation and adaptation. In the UK, for example, the ICF is the most important instrument to provide climate finance for developing countries. In 2013, the UK set out a clear position ‘to end support for public financing of new coal-fired power plants overseas, except in rare circumstances.’ This ban has fostered debate about whether similar positions should follow for other fossil fuels such as natural gas, specifically in the context of ICF funding. Similar debates are taking place in other countries such as Germany and Norway, and are informing the implementation of international facilities such as the Green Climate Fund.  相似文献   

16.
Climate Dynamics - The impact of air temperature rise is eminent for the large deep lakes in the Italian subalpine district, climate change being caused there by both natural phenomena and...  相似文献   

17.
Water managers always have had to cope with climate variability. All water management practices are, to some extent, a response to natural hydrologic variability. Climate change poses a different kind of problem. Adaptation to climate change in water resource management will involve using the kinds of practices and activities currently being used. However, it remains unclear whether or not practices and activities designed with historical climate variability will be able to cope with future variability caused by atmospheric warming. This paper examines the question of adaptation to climate change in the context of Canadian water resources management, emphasizing issues in the context of the Great Lakes, an important binational water resource.  相似文献   

18.
《Global Environmental Change》2007,17(3-4):297-301
The Stern Review on The Economics of Climate Change is one of the few cost-benefit analyses of climate change to come out in favour of immediate and decisive action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The choice of a low discount rate is the main reason for the Review's divergence in conclusions compared to other economic studies. I argue that the Review's ethical reasons for a low discount rate are defendable, but unlikely to find wider public support. In order to justify spending a large amount of scarce resources for the purpose of limiting climate change, it is necessary to move beyond the discounting debate. Unfortunately, the Review did not develop a persuasive argument for why climate change threatens to inflict upon future generations irreversible and non-substitutable damage to and loss of natural capital. This represents a missed opportunity as it would have provided a much more compelling case for drastic action than the Review's arguments for a low discount rate.  相似文献   

19.
Time of Emergence (ToE) is the time at which the signal of climate change emerges from the background noise of natural climate variability, and can provide useful information for climate change impacts and adaptations. This study examines future ToEs for daily maximum and minimum temperatures over the Northeast Asia using five Regional Climate Models (RCMs) simulations driven by single Global Climate Model (GCM) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) emission scenarios. Noise is defined based on the interannual variability during the present-day period (1981-2010) and warming signals in the future years (2021-2100) are compared against the noise in order to identify ToEs. Results show that ToEs of annual mean temperatures occur between 2030s and 2040s in RCMs, which essentially follow those of the driving GCM. This represents the dominant influence of GCM boundary forcing on RCM results in this region. ToEs of seasonal temperatures exhibit larger ranges from 2030s to 2090s. The seasonality of ToE is found to be determined majorly by noise amplitudes. The earliest ToE appears in autumn when the noise is smallest while the latest ToE occurs in winter when the noise is largest. The RCP4.5 scenario exhibits later emergence years than the RCP8.5 scenario by 5-35 years. The significant delay in ToEs by taking the lower emission scenario provides an important implication for climate change mitigation. Daily minimum temperatures tend to have earlier emergence than daily maximum temperature but with low confidence. It is also found that noise thresholds can strongly affect ToE years, i.e. larger noise threshold induces later emergence, indicating the importance of noise estimation in the ToE assessment.  相似文献   

20.
气候变化是21世纪人类面临的重大挑战之一,并对自然系统和社会经济系统造成了各种负面影响。对气候变化的影响进行经济评估是气候变化研究中的重要问题。而可计算一般均衡框架下的综合评估模型（CGE_IAMs）是评估气候变化经济影响的有效手段之一,文中对气候变化影响经济评估的主要CGE_IAMs进行了文献调研,并对这些模型进行了比较分析。研究表明不同模型在温室气体排放、气候参数的处理方式以及气候影响的引入机制等方面有着较大区别,因而各模型对气候变化影响的经济评估结果也有一定的差异。此外,当前CGE_IAMs在评估气候变化经济影响时存在支撑数据未及时更新、方法不细致以及评估不全面等问题。未来该领域的相关研究应该更加关注于模型与支撑数据的精细化和开源化,此外还应加强CGE_IAMs中经济模块与复杂气候模式的耦合。  相似文献   

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